2024 Baseball

[hskr4life]

Down to #23 as our chances of hosting continue to dwindle.  Will probably need to go somewhere in the ballpark of 13-2ish the rest of the way.

[brfrad]

If I'm being honest, this is probably the team we had all year.  Early in the year, we were catching all the breaks, and playing above our talent level.  We are playing about where our talent level is.

 

Need to find a way to win the series.  Illinois is playing well, and has a favorable schedule.

[hskr4life]

Don’t look now, but Charleston is on a roll and has bumped up our Q1 record by 3 wins!

 

Were now 4-5 Q1 with two HUGE mid-week opportunities (both Q1).

 

Come. On. Bats!

[HuskerFever]

No better place to put these...

 

 

 

[hskr4life]

Jumped up 1 in the RPI…

[throwback]

Looks like someone is going to miss the Big East tournament - even with a decent RPI, no chance they get an at-large if they can't even make their conference tourney in that league. 

 

Too bad for the bluebirds that the NCAA tournament isn't played on weekdays only or they'd be a CWS lock.  It's also too bad we can't play them in a weekend series sometime. Their win streak would end really fast.

 

[Bugeaters1]

1 hour ago, throwback said:

Looks like someone is going to miss the Big East tournament - even with a decent RPI, no chance they get an at-large if they can't even make their conference tourney in that league. 

 

Too bad for the bluebirds that the NCAA tournament isn't played on weekdays only or they'd be a CWS lock.  It's also too bad we can't play them in a weekend series sometime. Their win streak would end really fast.

 

St John's swept them this weekend.

 

[AuroranHusker]

Nebraska's tied for first place in the Big Ten with Purdue and Illinois at 12-5, and Indiana is at 11-6. A pleasant look at the current standings, now if only NU could win a whole lot of its mid-week games as well, that'd be great. A no-no was a nice surprise from this past Weds. GBR Always.

 

[HuskerActuary]

Given our midweek results, this doesn't feel possible, but we are still in a position to grab a regional host spot. GBR

[throwback]

20 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Given our midweek results, this doesn't feel possible, but we are still in a position to grab a regional host spot. GBR

Our non-con schedule just keeps looking better. We tried to schedule some good mid-major teams on the road to 'game' the RPI, but how it actually worked out was beyond what the coaches hoped would happen. (Of course, we still had to win those games, so we did our part.)

 

Had we hung on to that 9th-inning lead vs OU on opening weekend, we'd almost certainly be on the right side of the hosting bubble right now.

 

Probably still on the wrong side as it sits, but a 7-1 finish would make it interesting.

 

Heading into yesterday, Boyd's World projected us as a Top 16 RPI by going 9-0 the last 9 games (now 8-0 in the last 8). http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html 

 

One number that is going to hold us back is our DSR - the NCAA is putting some weight on this, but I don't know how much. We're in the mid-30s there. It tries to take margin of victory into account. https://d1baseball.com/diamond-sports-ranking/

[AuroranHusker]

Baseball using margin of victory is unequivocally idiotic. Great teams win close ones, good ones blow one team out then lose a close one to a great team.... NCAA needs to figure their shit out with the post-season criterion for MOV.

 

[throwback]

 

I remember when he was an NU commit.  Can't believe he finally made it to the bigs - good for him.

 

[hskr4life]

B1G Remaining Opponents

 

Illinois: Iowa, @Purdue

Nebraska: Indiana, @Michigan State

Purdue: @Michigan, Illinois

Indiana: @Nebraska, Michigan

Iowa: @Illinois, Non-con

Michigan: Purdue, @Indiana

Mich St: @Minnesota, Nebraska

Maryland: Non-Con, Penn St

OSU: Northwestern, @Rutgers

Penn St: Rutgers, @Maryland

Minnesota: Michigan St, @Northwestern

Rutgers: @Penn St, Ohio St

Northwestern: @Ohio St, Minnesota

 

Interesting finish as a bunch of teams at the top all play each other and the bottom mostly play each other.

 

Officially eliminated from B1G tournament play is Northwestern. They started really well and fell off a cliff.

 

Rutgers must sweep to make the B1G tournament. 2/4 wins for them are against us.  Wahh wahhh.  Wasted opportunity.

 

Maryland and Iowa have the least chances to move up as each had just 1 remaining series.

 

Our series this weekend is HUGE.  That didn’t appear like it’d be the case 2-3 weeks ago, but Indiana turned it on going 7-2 in their last three B1G series.  They started off 5-3 in B1G play.

 

Would greatly benefit us for Illinois and Purdue to lose 1-2 this weekend.  Purdue is most likely to sweep.  Iowa will be throwing everything they got to try and cement their B1G tournament spot against Illinois.

 

That last weekend could be big with a chance at a sweep for us AND Purdue and Illinois likely beating up on each other.

 

[Bugeaters1]

B1G pitcher of the week.

 

 

Edited May 6 by Bugeaters1

[throwback]

I hope / expect Bolt and NU's AD will be in contact with the B1G office this week to gain some assurances that Purdue won't be able to pull the BS it did a couple of years ago by pretending it was going to rain and leaving the tarp on the field to avoid having to play their final game to steal the #8 seed. We better get some assurances that the B1G will be deciding -- rather than the PU coaches and officials -- whether weather stops PU from playing at any time that final weekend if the race remains tight.

 

The chances of everything lining up so that PU could win the league by not playing on the final Sunday are small, but PU's coach is a @&*$@#$@ and will try to do it if he can get away with it.

 

Whether the B1G cares enough about baseball to make sure that doesn't happen remains to be seen.

 

[Bugeaters1]

 

[throwback]

B1G standings thru week 7:
13-5 Illinois
12-6 NU
12-6 Purdue
12-6 Indiana
13-8 Iowa
11-7 Michigan
9-9 Mich St

10-11 Maryland
 

8-10 Ohio St

7-11 Penn St
7-11 Minnesota
4-14 Rutgers
2-16 N'western

 

Week 8 B1G Schedule

• Indiana at NU
• Iowa at Illinois
• Purdue at Michigan
• Mich St at Minnesota
• N'western at Ohio St
• Rutgers at Penn St
• Maryland OFF

Week 9 B1G Schedule

• NU at Mich St
• Illinois at Purdue
• Michigan at Indiana
• Ohio St at Rutgers
• Penn St at Maryland
• Minnesota at N'western
• Iowa OFF

 

Remaining Schedule for Contenders

• Illinois: vs Iowa, at Purdue (remaining opponent record 25-14)
• NU: vs Indiana, at MSU (21-15)
• Indiana: at NU, vs Mich (23-13)
• Purdue: at Mich, vs Illinois (24-12)
• Michigan: vs Purdue, at Indiana (24-12)
• Iowa: at Illinois (13-5)

We still have the easiest schedule remaining, although we missed a big chance to stamp ourselves at the favorite Sunday in Minneapolis. If Iowa can sweep Illinois this weekend, they'll be in the clubhouse with 16 wins and have a pretty decent shot of winning at least a share of the league, as crazy as that would seem.

 

Maryland is going to be very interesting too. Their RPI is more than enough to be in the NCAAs, but if they struggle vs PSU in the final weekend, they could miss the B1G tourney and probably get left out of the NCAAs. Not likely, but who knows this season?
_____

 

B1G Boyd's World RPIs (http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html) through 12 weeks:

• 22 Nebraska (30-16)
• 35 Maryland -- WLW (31-18) (3 H)
• 61 Indiana (27-19) (3 H)
• 62 Illinois (28-16)*
• 63 Ohio St (23-22) -- WWL (3 H)
• 66 Rutgers (23-16) -- LWL (3 A)
• 69 Purdue (31-17)*
• 93 Michigan (25-23)*
• 102 Iowa (28-18) -- WWL (3 H)
• 103 Michigan St (21-23) (3 A)
• 120 Minnesota (21-21) -- WWL (3 A)
• 136 N'western (13-30) -- WWW (3 A)
• 149 Penn St (21-20)*

* NU doesn't play

 

Non-con opponents:

• 17 Oklahoma (29-17) -- L (1 N)
• 36 K-State (28-19) -- W (1 H)
• 53 Texas Tech (30-20) -- L (1 N)
• 54 Coll of Charleston (33-11) -- WWW (3 A)
• 60 bluebirds (31-14) -- LL (2 A) -- L (1 H)
• 64 Kansas (27-17) -- L (1 A) -- L (1 H)
• 65 South Alabama (27-20) -- LWW (3 H)
• 89 Nicholls (30-17) -- WWW (3 H)
• 90 Grand Canyon (29-18) -- WWLW (4 A)
• 112 Wichita St (24-26) -- WL (2 A)
• 133 Baylor (20-26) -- W (1 N)
• 151 New Mexico St (23-24) -- WW (2 H)
• 225 North Dakota St (16-25) -- W (1 H)
• 250 South Dakota St (17-25) (1 H)
• 291 Omaha (15-26) -- W (1 H)

The Pac-4:

• 48 Oregon (32-15)
• 98 USC (22-25)
• 148 Washington (18-22-1)
• 196 UCLA (16-29)

 

What our quads look like right now:
Q1: 3-3 (6 total games)

• L – Oklahoma (N)
• LL – bluebirds (A)
• WWW – Coll of Charleston (A)

Q2: 10-8 (21 total games)

• L – Texas Tech (N)
• WL – Wichita St (A)
• WWLW – Grand Canyon (A)
• L – Kansas (A)
• W – K-State (H)
• LWL – Rutgers (A)
• WLW – Maryland (H)
• WWL – Minnesota (A)
• XXX – Michigan St (A)

Q3: 11-4 (18 total games)

• W – Baylor (N)
• LWW – South Alabama (H)
• WWW – Nicholls (H)
• L – bluebirds (H)
• L – Kansas (H)
• WWW – Northwestern (A)
• WWL – Ohio St (H)
• XXX – Indiana (H)

Q4: 6-1 (8 total games)

• WW – New Mexico St (H)
• W – N Dakota St (H)
• W – Omaha (H)
• X – S Dakota St (H)
• WWL – Iowa (H) 

---------

• Quad 1: Home games vs. RPI 1-25, neutral site games vs. 1-40, road games vs. 1-60
• Quad 2: Home games vs. RPI 26-50, neutral site games vs. 41-80, road games vs. 61-120
• Quad 3: Home games vs. RPI 51-100, neutral site games vs. 81-160, road games vs. 121-240
• Quad 4: Home games vs. RPI 101+, neutral site games vs. 161+, road games vs. 241+

 

Teams on our schedule with the best chance of shifting to a different quad (in case we want to know who to cheer for):

• Iowa +2 to go to Q3
• Maryland +10 to go to Q1
• Rutgers +6 to go to Q1
• Kansas (A) +4 to go to Q1 

 

• Coll of Charleston -7 to go to Q2
• Minnesota -1 to go to Q3
• Wichita -9 to go to Q3
• Tex Tech -8 to go to Q3
• bluebirds (A) -1 to go to Q2

Hosting chances are miniscule at this point. Boyd's World gives us 0% chance of getting into the Top 16 RPI before the end of the regular season, but maybe if we win out and win a few in the tourney that'd be enough to be Top 16 RPI.

 

And we may not need Top 16 RPI to get to host, as the northern teams nearly always get a little benefit of the doubt from the selection committee, as they really want to give northern teams a chance to host if it's really close. So I'd stay still a chance, but it's going to take a huge finish.

 

League race is going to be crazy. Wouldn't surprise me to see co- or tri-champions. We probably need at least 4-2 to be in the mix. Won't be easy with Indiana & Mich St playing well, but with everyone at the top playing each other, it'll be a lot of chaos. And probably a lot of tarps on the field in West Lafayette. If PU wins Friday in Michigan to get to a .684 winning pct, they may try to avoid taking the field the rest of the year and hope everyone else finishes at .667. Only half kidding.

 

Edited May 7 by throwback

[hskr4life]

A 13 seed is… something.

Edited May 8 by hskr4life

[throwback]

6 hours ago, hskr4life said:

A 13 seed is… something.

If we end up with a 13 and Indiana St gets a 12 .... never mind, no chance. At this point, I'm just hoping the committee doesn't stick it to us by sending us to Texas A&M or Arkansas as a #2. 

[hskr4life]

On 4/24/2024 at 9:15 AM, hskr4life said:

Down to #23 as our chances of hosting continue to dwindle.  Will probably need to go somewhere in the ballpark of 13-2ish the rest of the way.

Down to #30.  Still in the solid 2 seed range.  Hope we get a favorable draw.

 

Lot of work to be done and we still have 2 weekend series left!  Let’s eat.

[AuroranHusker]

17 hours ago, throwback said:

If we end up with a 13 and Indiana St gets a 12 .... never mind, no chance. At this point, I'm just hoping the committee doesn't stick it to us by sending us to Texas A&M or Arkansas as a #2. 

 

Winning mid-week games against inferior opponents, local and/or personal... it would be a nice start, sheesh!

 

[AuroranHusker]

57 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Down to #30.  Still in the solid 2 seed range.  Hope we get a favorable draw.

 

Lot of work to be done and we still have 2 weekend series left!  Let’s eat.

 

Start with a sip of water, fellas. One pitch at a time, basically.

[hskr4life]

Biggest series of the year I feel like.  We’re a stones throw away from being in “sweat it out” territory should things go south in the final two series and B1G tournament play.

[brfrad]

Pitching stats

 

ERA

2024 4.51

2023 4.64

 

BB/9

2024 2.93

2023 3.48

 

SO/9

2024 8.67

2023 8.53

 

Not as much of a difference as I would have guessed with Childress taking over.

[brfrad]

That clinched a spot in the Big 10 tournament.   Need to avoid the 4/5 game.  Would start Wednesday.