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tcp

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Everything posted by tcp

  1. thanks, cip. matt and kent it is....
  2. Hey, guys, not seeing the game on my lineup card today (I'm in Denver, CO). Are we able to get it on BTN digital? Or yet another date with Kent and Matt?
  3. they're better than we are. so is everyone else in the league, even arguably penn st. we can still beat them if we shoot better. we're due for a 40+ percent effort at home. Might as well be saturday. It just occurred to me, when was the last time we were underdogs for pretty much every conference game but one? (psu at home). every win we get is an upset. there's something kind of subversively cool about that.
  4. dylan has a thankless task here. really, none of us should be beating up on any player this season, because all of them are having to do things that they aren't accustomed to doing. Ray's shot selection drives me nuts, too, but it's a result of feeling like he has to get hot for us to win and every team is putting their better defenders on him (and talley, and now probably shields, although Dean Smith tells me this is not so, so I could be wrong here). we just don't have a lot of options out on the court right now, so I think some of the wildness is a result of that.
  5. Everyday I get my marching orders from Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh. heh well, we knew that already. who's glenn beck? hee hee. edit: although, this emphasizes my point of my own ignorance. I have no idea what the audience these guys draws is, although in politics, you'd think I would by now.
  6. I don't know where you're from but let's not act like talk radio isn't big business all over the country. Sports talk radio is huge no matter where you live. Is it really? I honestly don't know. I don't follow radio consumption trends and there are only two other sports where I follow teams this closely or more closely and it's not as big a topic in the community as it is here, hence why I asked the question.
  7. I thought we'd struggle to get just 10 wins this year, and we're already there! So there's that. And I think we'll get a couple more before it's over.
  8. It doesn't. So far as I can tell, Nebraska has a couple of major things working against it with respect to its kenpom ranking. First, 94.3 points per 100 possessions puts the Huskers at 255th in the nation. By comparison, the current number 1 team in that category, Michigan, scores 125 points per 100 possessions. And although Nebraska's per possession defense is much better than its per possession offense right now, it's only rated at #87. Second, Nebraska is #16 in the luck category. I agree with tcp on the relative accuracy of the kenpom ranking in terms of where the team realistically stands this year, even if it is clear that Nebraska's plenty capable of beating a number of the teams ranked ahead of them, and apparently capable of soundly beating a team on the road that is capable of beating ranked N.C. State. Margins are ostensibly used as part of the predictor formula by sagarin and I'm rechecking Pom, though I don't believe he's releasing the exact recipe for his secret sauce. I am glad you brought up the point about efficiency metrics, because you're right that there's some folks saying as you did, with the statistical assumption being that efficiency is the most direct correlation to wins and losses.
  9. I honestly don't get the attraction of talk radio at all. But I take it this is a big deal in Nebraska?
  10. Tough game to call. Apparently Coach is going to rest these guys much of the week, which is good, the last time we did that we got a good two weeks out of the team. It'll pay off against the Kitties. I think we get the mild upset here and finally shoot better at home. NU-64 NW-58
  11. this. it was always the hosses. you can see it every time we go in for layups or drive. they're an adventure. we can't get over most defenders in our conference, and we know it, so we blow a lot of bunnies when we do get clear.
  12. That's usually a function of what other teams are doing as well. A 148 team might struggle with Nicholls St at home, too, but they lose by less to the better teams or they've upset someone and gained the point surplus for the effort. And teams have to be ranked in an order, not here you necessarily think they should be. For example, we might really be the 120th best team in the country! Along with maybe 30 other teams with similar resumes. But then that clump gets sorted out by measures large and small, and we find ourselves in 160 instead. I get what you're saying. We've lost to the people we should lose to, beat a couple we should've lost to (a few mild upsets), and generally held our own against peers for the most part. A lot of teams are doing that. And so we separate us via other means (margin of victory/loss, for example). Our biggest enemy on rpi is our margins, though. I can tell that just by eyeballing scores. Almost all of our 10 losses are by double figures. the other two are by 6 and 9 points at home. Computer makes sad face at numbers such as these.
  13. I'm pretty sure part of the reason for the KenPom placement is margins of loss. We tend to lose pretty big to higher teams when we lose. That also explains why our SoS is keeping us higher in rpi formulas that don't do margin of victory/loss, like CBS or RealTime, where we are rated much higher. AS much as it pains me to say, Poms ratings probably have us closest to where we really are as a squad. It passes the eyeball test, at least for me. I saw CBS a week or so ago and they had us around 68th or something. I don't know anyone that could make a sober case for how we could be the 68th best team in the country right now. Edit: Sagarin's elaborate formula with Predictor has us at 160. Also a reasonable placement. And he's got us with an SoS of 10, which is probably the difference between Pom and him.
  14. Not in the slightest. Honestly, this team is as mature as they are undertalented.
  15. The call against Andre on his steal was one of the worst calls I've seen this season in any game. Brandon's block was up there. The call on the Ilini player on the sideline was horrendous also. This was a flat out poorly officiated game. Seeing a lot of that in the conference, and I'm guessing it's a significant style issue. Refs trained for a type of basketball that's quickly leaving the conference.
  16. lol at Timmeh. I don't think it was that bad, but I guess he's gotta light a fire under the boys. This really was an athletic mismatch. Maybe 12.5 pride?
  17. thanks. I usually don't do game reviews here, but I just sorta took mental notes tonight as a way of retaining my fan sanity.
  18. solid report card. this was a tough game for everyone involved. I was more merciful on rebounding because I thought a large part of that was the wildly inconsistent officiating in the paint between the two halves. no idea how we start shooting better on our home court, but until we do, we might not be able to beat anyone in the Bob right now.
  19. I think they played hard. I think they were also wildly outgunned by an athletically superior team that played well enough to win by 20. We couldn't keep bodies on them under the boards for more than a second or so, and that was huge. we were getting people to box out, we just couldn't hold the position. they could go around or over at will, and in the first half, the refs weren't blowing the whistle inside as much as they would in the second half (which was insane, btw). Illinois played pretty well defensively, too. Interesting thing about this game was the two faces of Illini hoops. Saw both the team that stormed out early in the season (first half and last 7 minutes) as well as the team that could tune out and screw up the last two weeks. Illinois dialed in is as good as anyone in the league. True to almost everyone's prediction, Shavon got gameplanned tonight, and it showed. I love the fact that eventually he shook it off and began playing his game again, especially around the boards. It's not often to see a freshman make that adjustment in the same game, and while people may be disappointed with the box score, that's a big deal. This was the first time I really felt sorry for Andre. I've been hard on him for being a bit of a head case this year, but honestly, I get the frustration. That guy is being whistled simply for existence. I know I couldn't play any game under those conditions, and it's amazing he hasn't drawn technicals on the floor yet. I would've been kicked out tonight. Maybe even twice! My meta observation is that the B1G is in the middle of becoming a more athletic conference in addition to being a well-coached conference, but the officiating crews are still calling games like it's the frigging Ivy League. Delaney needs to get on that. I didn't like it last year; I like it even less this year. And it's going to cause an issue both with fans and top flight athletes who don't want to watch or play under a barrage of inconsistent whistles. There's no favoritism that I can see, just a game style that's a bit over the heads of the guys in stripes. On to Northwestern, where we really do have a chance at a home win. We have got to keep working on creating better shots. Need much better passing to win than we had tonight. Probably our worst aspect in tonight's game was our inability to pass against the lane defense.
  20. this was inspired.
  21. kinda glad this one's done. that was less than pleasant hoops. i think we're just going to be a better road team this season.
  22. practice team's in now. that's pretty cool.
  23. take care, bud. this was a frustrating night for sure.
  24. geez, that lead opened up fast.
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