Picking winners

[lanigan123]

Listening to Nick Bahe he said he generally picks winners based on who the top 3 players on the floor are, and how much better the number 1 player is. Thoughts on this? Very interesting.

[Huskerpapa]

Seems to be a pretty sound system...

[huskerbaseball13]

I like Nick but we will see if that hold's true when he predicts next years Creighton-NU game. 

[doc1394]

So:

Petteway > newbill

Shields < Frazier

Pitchford > their third best.

Huskers win

[Norm Peterson]

Listening to Nick Bahe he said he generally picks winners based on who the top 3 players on the floor are, and how much better the number 1 player is. Thoughts on this? Very interesting.

I read an article about this last year and the support for it.  It was somehow linked from something on Kenpom but darned if I can find it again.  I looked for it earlier this season and came up empty.

 

edited to add:  IOW, it's not Bahe's original idea.  And if he's passing it off as though it's his brainchild ...

[royalfan]

The most accurate way of picking winners is looking at the line.  That will be a more accurate picture over the long run than anything else by a significant amount. 

[lanigan123]

The point spread is about leveraging money? So basically you are saying the Vegas favorite should "always" win?

[Norm Peterson]

The point spread is about leveraging money? So basically you are saying the Vegas favorite should "always" win?

Oops.  I meant to hit "quote" not "up arrow."  You're welcome.

 

I think what Royal means is that the line (i.e., the point spread) suggests who Vegas thinks will win.  And they have to be right more often than not or they'd be out of business.  And they're not out of business.  In fact, quite the contrary.  So, Royal has a point.

[hhcmatt]

Seems like a good tie breaker.

[royalfan]

The point spread is about leveraging money? So basically you are saying the Vegas favorite should "always" win?

The leveraging money thing is a little overblown.  It is complicated and this isn't really the time or place for a lengthy discussion on it.  That being said, I am not sure how to answer your question.  It depends on what you mean by always.  Yes, the favored team should win.  This is always the case.  If a team is favored by two or more I would always predict them to win, even if I thought the other team would(over time they will be right more than I am if they are giving a team this edge).  The money line will tell you exactly how often they should win.  There very few exceptions to this and they have to do with things most cannot access. 

 

 Do I think the favorite will always win?  The answer would be a resounding no.  Upsets happen all the time.  The main point is that there is no better indicator of expected result.  There are a handful of guys with models that are capable of hammering Vegas on a regular basis in college hoops.  Those would be the only exceptions.  But for all practical purposes, the Vegas line is an incredible guide as to what is what.  I realize that some people do not like lines and don't believe in them.  They may think it takes the fun out of forming their own opinion etc., and that is fine.  Just having a lot of experience with it, those are my thoughts.