KenPom 2012-2013 KenPom Rankings Thread

[tcp]

Anyone know how much margin of victory/loss works its way into the rpi rankings?

It doesn't. 

 

So far as I can tell, Nebraska has a couple of major things working against it with respect to its kenpom ranking. 

 

First, 94.3 points per 100 possessions puts the Huskers at 255th in the nation.  By comparison, the current number 1 team in that category, Michigan, scores 125 points per 100 possessions.  And although Nebraska's per possession defense is much better than its per possession offense right now, it's only rated at #87. 

 

Second, Nebraska is #16 in the luck category.

 

I agree with tcp on the relative accuracy of the kenpom ranking in terms of where the team realistically stands this year, even if it is clear that Nebraska's plenty capable of beating a number of the teams ranked ahead of them, and apparently capable of soundly beating a team on the road that is capable of beating ranked N.C. State.

 

Margins are ostensibly used as part of the predictor formula by sagarin and I'm rechecking Pom, though I don't believe he's releasing the exact recipe for his secret sauce. I am glad you brought up the point about efficiency metrics, because you're right that there's some folks saying as you did, with the statistical assumption being that efficiency is the most direct correlation to wins and losses.

[Norm Peterson]

Yeah, I'd be curious to know more about what's in Pomeroy's secret sauce as tcp put it.  He looks at more than W/L record and SOS, obviously.  So, he also somehow incorporates a team's offensive efficiency?  That makes some sense.  That takes tempo out of the equation.  If you're efficient, then you're scoring more than your foe even if possessions are limited.  So, I would think offensive efficiency would be a pretty reasonable reflection on the quality of the team.  Then again, strength of the opponent is going to influence how efficient you are.  The worse your opponent, the more easily you should score on them.

[hhcmatt]

Yeah, I'd be curious to know more about what's in Pomeroy's secret sauce as tcp put it.

 

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ratings_explanation

[Norm Peterson]

Yeah, I'd be curious to know more about what's in Pomeroy's secret sauce as tcp put it.

 

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ratings_explanation

Don't know why I was curious.  Checked the link.  Man, this stuff is waaaaaay over my head.  The best exponent for the Pythagorean calculation of expected winning percentage is wha? 

 

Just tell me Nebraska sits at 165 and I'll just leave it at that. 

[hhcmatt]

Don't know why I was curious.  Checked the link.  Man, this stuff is waaaaaay over my head.  The best exponent for the Pythagorean calculation of expected winning percentage is wha? 

Just tell me Nebraska sits at 165 and I'll just leave it at that. 

 

Essentially it's a combination of your offensive and defensive efficiencies or how well your team is at scoring per possession and conversely at keeping others from scoring per possession.

[49r]

We grab our second win over top-100 competition for the season.  We don't move much, however, because our non-con opponents had a mediocre week.  Shout out to UNO, they went 2-0 this week. Go Mavs! 

Kenpom rankings as of 1-27-13.
==============================

B1G (2-6):
2. Indiana
3. Michigan - L
9. Minnesota
10. Ohio State - L
13. Wisconsin - L
16. Michigan State - L
33. Iowa
54. Illinois - L
65. Purdue - L
89. Northwestern - W
158. Nebraska
202. Penn State - W

Non-Conference (9-4):
133. Southern - W
80. Valpariaso - W
321. UNO - W
127. Tulane - W
130. Kent State - L
134. @Wake Forest - W
97. Southern Cal - W
15. Creighton - L
25. @Oregon - L
209. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
125. Central Michigan - W
101. UTEP - L

293. Nicholls State - W

[49r]

I don't know what happened, or if I've been going crazy or what, but it appears Central Michigan has dropped over 100 spots in the Pomeroy rankings in the last few days.  Nebraska continues to inch up.  Now at 151.  (Which also happens to be the variety of Bacardi I'm going to be inclined to start drinking soon).

Kenpom rankings as of 1-30-13.
==============================

B1G (2-7):
2. Michigan - L
3. Indiana
9. Ohio State - L
10. Minnesota - L
15. Wisconsin - L
16. Michigan State - L
35. Iowa
56. Illinois - L
63. Purdue - L
88. Northwestern - W
151. Nebraska
202. Penn State - W

Non-Conference (9-4):
134. Southern - W
78. Valpariaso - W
321. UNO - W
124. Tulane - W
131. Kent State - L
145. @Wake Forest - W
96. Southern Cal - W
14. Creighton - L
23. @Oregon - L
211. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
228. Central Michigan - W
103. UTEP - L

294. Nicholls State - W

[hhcmatt]

I don't know what happened, or if I've been going crazy or what, but it appears Central Michigan has dropped over 100 spots in the Pomeroy rankings in the last few days.  Nebraska continues to inch up.  Now at 151.  (Which also happens to be the variety of Bacardi I'm going to be inclined to start drinking soon).

 

 

They gave up 74 points and lost to an awful Northern Illinois team that went out and put up 25! points! the next time out.

[Norm Peterson]

Well, at least we kept the margin close against Minnesota.  That should help our standing. 

[Cookie Belcher]

B1G with 6 teams in the top 16

[Norm Peterson]

It's kind of amazing that 7 of our 11 losses are to teams in the Kenpom top 25. 

 

We have two other losses to teams in the top 50-70.  And two losses to teams outside the top 100 -- UTEP at 103 and Kent State at 131.  And we have three wins against top 100 teams -- USC, Valpo and Northwestern.

 

But 7 of our 11 losses have come against top 25 foes, and 5 of those 7 were on the road.  How about that?

[49r]

Up to 146 today.  In other items of interest, Southern Cal continues to be a better win for us all the time, they may end up being our best non conference win.  Northwestern has moved into 9th in the B1G order (Iowa, Illinois and Purdue are trending down).

 

Colorado State is ranked 16th, right between Creighton and Michigan State.  Future league mate Maryland is at #55 and Rutgers is at #103.

Kenpom rankings as of 2-3-13.
==============================

B1G (2-8):
2. Indiana
3. Michigan - L
8. Minnesota - L
11. Ohio State - L, L
14. Wisconsin - L
17. Michigan State - L
47. Iowa
56. Illinois - L
84. Northwestern - W
86. Purdue - L
146. Nebraska
192. Penn State - W

Non-Conference (9-4):
133. Southern - W
82. Valpariaso - W
321. UNO - W
143. Tulane - W
138. Kent State - L
149. @Wake Forest - W
89. Southern Cal - W
15. Creighton - L
37. @Oregon - L
203. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
246. Central Michigan - W
105. UTEP - L

283. Nicholls State - W

[Norm Peterson]

Don't look now, but we've leapt up another spot to #145.

 

Which raises a question:  Do we HAVE to play UNO every year?  If so, then we better start helping them out with recruiting.  Win or lose, that game has to be hurting our RPI (or Kenpom rating or whatever.)  And Central Michigan continues its nosedive.  They need to right that ship in a hurry.

[49r]

I don't think UNO is going to be a terrible drag on our RPI going forward.  As long as we limit the +200 and +300 RPI games to a couple we should be okay.  As it stands, according to www.rpiforecast.com we have the nations' #14 strength of schedule.

[hhcmatt]

Don't look now, but we've leapt up another spot to #145.

 

Which raises a question:  Do we HAVE to play UNO every year?  If so, then we better start helping them out with recruiting.  Win or lose, that game has to be hurting our RPI (or Kenpom rating or whatever.)  And Central Michigan continues its nosedive.  They need to right that ship in a hurry.

 

Theoretically UNO should become better in basketball the longer they are in Div I

[49r]

Don't look now, but we've leapt up another spot to #145.

 

Which raises a question:  Do we HAVE to play UNO every year?  If so, then we better start helping them out with recruiting.  Win or lose, that game has to be hurting our RPI (or Kenpom rating or whatever.)  And Central Michigan continues its nosedive.  They need to right that ship in a hurry.

 

Theoretically UNO should become better in basketball the longer they are in Div I

 

and that, too.  

[Norm Peterson]

What's the joke about the guy explaining theory versus reality to his son?

[49r]

What's the joke about the guy explaining theory versus reality to his son?

 

Is this one of those Aesop deals, Norm?

 

[Norm Peterson]

No, no, the one I'm thinking of was from maybe Married with Children and Bud wants to know the difference between theory and reality and so Al asks Peg and the daughter something about whether they'd be willing to sleep with, I dunno, whomever, for a million bucks and they both say that absolutely they would sleep with the guy for a million bucks.

 

So then Al turns to Bud and says, "Now, in THEORY, we're millionaires.  But in REALITY, we're living with a couple of sluts."

[Jadler]

No, no, the one I'm thinking of was from maybe Married with Children and Bud wants to know the difference between theory and reality and so Al asks Peg and the daughter something about whether they'd be willing to sleep with, I dunno, whomever, for a million bucks and they both say that absolutely they would sleep with the guy for a million bucks.

 

So then Al turns to Bud and says, "Now, in THEORY, we're millionaires.  But in REALITY, we're living with a couple of sluts."

It's shit like this, Norm, that makes me love you.

[Norm Peterson]

[49r]

First ever season sweep of a home-home series of a B1G opponent.  It's only PSU, but hey, beggars can't be choosers.

 

Colorado State is ranked 16th (19-4).  Keep in mind, this is in the Mountain West, the second best league in the country behind the Big Ten.  I like what this portends for our future.  Future league mate Maryland is at #58 and Rutgers is at #110.

Kenpom rankings as of 2-10-13.
==============================

B1G (3-8):
2. Indiana
4. Michigan - L
9. Ohio State - L, L
11. Minnesota - L
13. Wisconsin - L
14. Michigan State - L
34. Iowa
47. Illinois - L
84. Northwestern - W
85. Purdue - L
146. Nebraska
204. Penn State - W, W

Non-Conference (9-4):
147. Southern - W
70. Valpariaso - W
320. UNO - W
144. Tulane - W
140. Kent State - L
135. @Wake Forest - W
93. Southern Cal - W
19. Creighton - L
44. @Oregon - L
217. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
239. Central Michigan - W
120. UTEP - L

295. Nicholls State - W

[49r]

What more is there to say.  Here are the updated KenPom rankings.  I'll put the Colorado State, Maryland and Rutgers rankings at the bottom from here on out.

 

Kenpom rankings as of 2-14-13.
==============================

B1G (3-9):
2. Indiana - L
5. Michigan - L
10. Michigan State - L
11. Ohio State - L, L
12. Wisconsin - L
14. Minnesota - L
32. Illinois - L
35. Iowa
85. Northwestern - W
93. Purdue - L
150. Nebraska
207. Penn State - W, W

Non-Conference (9-4):
156. Southern - W
69. Valpariaso - W
319. UNO - W
140. Tulane - W
136. Kent State - L
134. @Wake Forest - W
86. Southern Cal - W
23. Creighton - L
38. @Oregon - L
219. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
250. Central Michigan - W
133. UTEP - L

295. Nicholls State - W

 

 

Other teams of interest:

 

16. Colorado State (20-4)

62. Maryland

111. Rutgers

[Norm Peterson]

As I watched us in the non-conf, I felt that a ranking in the 200s was way too low.  Based on my experience of watching games and knowing roughly which teams are 300 level teams (Presbyterian college from a couple of years ago was really bad) versus 200 level and 100 level teams, I would have said we were more comparable to the 100 level teams we've played in the non-con in the past.  I would have put us maybe in the 120 to 130 range.  And I think that's probably where we still belong.  I never bought the fact that we were previously listed in the bottom half of all D1 teams in the nation.  And nearly bottom third.  Now, we're sitting at just above the midway point.  That could be close to about right.  I think it still has us a bit low but it's probalby close.

[hhcmatt]

As I watched us in the non-conf, I felt that a ranking in the 200s was way too low.  Based on my experience of watching games and knowing roughly which teams are 300 level teams (Presbyterian college from a couple of years ago was really bad) versus 200 level and 100 level teams, I would have said we were more comparable to the 100 level teams we've played in the non-con in the past.  I would have put us maybe in the 120 to 130 range.  And I think that's probably where we still belong.  I never bought the fact that we were previously listed in the bottom half of all D1 teams in the nation.  And nearly bottom third.  Now, we're sitting at just above the midway point.  That could be close to about right.  I think it still has us a bit low but it's probalby close.

 

Today's squad would probably have a much easier time with our non-conf.

We returned little scoring from the year before from a poor squad which accounted for our initial low ranking.  Our subsequent wins of unimpressive margin over substandard foes and blowout losses to good team kept that rating low.  We didn't start really trending upwards until we could win games in the B1G and hang with some of the best schools in the country.

 

Doesn't that sound about right?