2024 Baseball

AuroranHusker · March 1, 2024

On 3/1/2024 at 11:57 AM, HuskerActuary said:

Huge comeback win yesterday. RPI is still fairly meaningless at this point, but we're #8 right now in that metric.

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I'll certainly take 5-3 at this point in time. After how Arlington ended the last two there, it's been 4-1 since. GBR

throwback · March 3, 2024

I'll allow it.

Bugeaters1 · March 3, 2024

GC lost 10-9 on a wild pitch/passed ball.

throwback · March 4, 2024

Boyd's World has us #3 in RPI and #16 in his ISR - he doesn't publish rankings until most teams have 10 games played, as he says that's when the numbers start to make some sense. He's a college baseball numbers guru, so I'll take his word for it that the RPI starts to mean something now.

http://boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/currentisr.html

http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

throwback · March 4, 2024

Post-week 3 update - how our primary non-con opponents are playing, with the Boyd's World RPI rankings as of Monday:

http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

South Alabama 10-2 (55 RPI)

USA beat Nicholls 11-10 midweek and then took two of three at home vs UNC-Wilmington --- very impressive & only allowed 11 runs in the 3 games vs UNCW, so we may be in for some tight low-scoring games again this weekend
NEXT UP: New Orleans (1 game), at NU (3 gms)

Wichita St 7-3 (66 RPI)

Beat Oral Roberts midweek & swept Utah Tech
Allowed 2 runs in the four games -- yes, total
NEXT UP: at Oklahoma (1 gm), vs Long Beach (3 gms)

Nicholls 11-2 (111 RPI)

Beat So Miss midweek and then lost to So Alabama, both in extra innings
Swept Southern U on the weekend with two shutout wins
NEXT UP: vs Tulane (1 gm), vs Non-D1 SE Baptist (2 gms), vs Grambling (3 gms)

New Mexico St 5-6 (258 RPI)

Swept first 3 games from Northern Colorado, one more game today, by scores of 11-6, 19-11, and 22-12
NEXT UP: vs Prairie View A&M (3 games)

_____

Teams we've played:

Baylor 4-7 (NU W) (178 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 0-1 vs Abilene Christian, 3-0 vs Oral Roberts (by a combined 31-12)
UP NEXT: vs Dallas Baptist (1 gm), at Houston (3 gms)

Texas Tech 9-2 (NU L) (67 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 3-0 vs Gardner-Webb (by a combined 48-15)
UP NEXT: at New Mexico (1 gm) vs Texas (3 gms)

Oklahoma 5-5 (NU L) (105 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 0-1 vs Pitt 0-1 vs Ohio St
UP NEXT: vs Wichita St (1 gm) vs UCF (3 gms)

Grand Canyon 6-5 (NU WWLW) (80 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 1-2 at UTSA
UP NEXT: vs Oregon (2 gms) at Stephen F Austin (3 gms)

College of Charleston 7-3 (NU WWW) (205 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 0-3 vs Nebraska
NEXT UP: vs Liberty (1 gm) vs Penn (4 gms)

Edited March 4, 2024 by throwback

throwback · March 4, 2024

B1G Boyd's World RPIs through 3 weeks:

3 Nebraska (7-3)
6 Rutgers (8-2)
29 Indiana (7-4)
30 N'western (5-5)
53 Purdue (8-3)*
54 Ohio St (6-4)
74 Iowa (5-6)
87 Maryland (9-3)
97 Penn St (7-3)*
114 Michigan (4-8)*
119 Minnesota (4-5)
124 Illinois (5-6)*
151 Michigan St (4-7)

* NU doesn't play

Other teams of note:

31 bluebirds (7-1)
86 K-State (7-3)
93 UCLA (5-5)
109 Washington (3-5)
113 North Dakota St (2-9)
153 Kansas (7-4)
154 USC (2-9)
160 Oregon (7-3)
221 South Dakota St (6-6)
286 Omaha (0-10)

Of course, these are going to change a bunch just in the next few weeks, but good to see the B1G with 9 Top 100 teams out of the gate. Has to be far better than last year's start.

Overall, our schedule looks pretty good so far - certainly far tougher than last year - which should help the RPI, as long as we keep taking care of business.

And our four incoming brethren are having really bad starts. They better pick it up if they want to be able to hang in the B1G in baseball. Northwestern isn't putting up with this kind of shoddy play.

hskr4life · March 5, 2024

On 3/4/2024 at 10:04 PM, throwback said:

B1G Boyd's World RPIs through 3 weeks:

3 Nebraska (7-3)

6 Rutgers (8-2)

29 Indiana (7-4)

30 N'western (5-5)

53 Purdue (8-3)*

54 Ohio St (6-4)

74 Iowa (5-6)

87 Maryland (9-3)

97 Penn St (7-3)*

114 Michigan (4-8)*

119 Minnesota (4-5)

124 Illinois (5-6)*

151 Michigan St (4-7)

* NU doesn't play

Other teams of note:

31 bluebirds (7-1)

86 K-State (7-3)

93 UCLA (5-5)

109 Washington (3-5)

113 North Dakota St (2-9)

153 Kansas (7-4)

154 USC (2-9)

160 Oregon (7-3)

221 South Dakota St (6-6)

286 Omaha (0-10)

Of course, these are going to change a bunch just in the next few weeks, but good to see the B1G with 9 Top 100 teams out of the gate. Has to be far better than last year's start.

Overall, our schedule looks pretty good so far - certainly far tougher than last year - which should help the RPI, as long as we keep taking care of business.

And our four incoming brethren are having really bad starts. They better pick it up if they want to be able to hang in the B1G in baseball. Northwestern isn't putting up with this kind of shoddy play.

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I think you forgot a 1 or 2 in front of that 30 for Northwestern. Sheesh! What an awesome start they’re having.

Nice to see all of the *DNPs at the BOTTOM of them list for us. Hope it stays that way.

throwback · March 5, 2024

Going to be a big next 5 games for NU - USA is much improved, and Wichita is certainly a surprise after their roster was gutted at the end of last season. All 5 games will be big for RPI down the road.

Sounds like it's Sears / Christo / ??? for this weekend. McConnaughey, who pitched pretty well in relief last weekend, would be my guess. Horn may get a look instead. The coaches don't like starting 3 righties on a weekend, but I think that's probably where we're headed.

Sundays are going to be interesting, which is pretty on brand for 90% of teams in college baseball. Need Sears & Christo to keep it rolling and eating innings to give us a lot of options on Sundays.

throwback · March 6, 2024

hskr4life · March 7, 2024

A very well followed Twitter account discussing Husker baseball? I’ll take it.

hskr4life · March 11, 2024

Still sitting 3rd in the RPI as of this moment. A non-con SOS of #4 so far.

throwback · March 11, 2024

On 3/11/2024 at 12:24 AM, hskr4life said:

Still sitting 3rd in the RPI as of this moment. A non-con SOS of #4 so far.

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Oklahoma had a helluva week, so I'm sure that helped.

throwback · March 11, 2024

Post-week 4 update - how our primary non-con opponents are playing, with the Boyd's World RPI rankings as of Monday:

http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

Wichita St 9-5 (48 RPI)

Lost midweek at Oklahoma; won 2 of 3 vs Long Beach
They just don't allow many runs - WSU has only allowed more than 5 runs 3x
Key midweek series for both teams
NEXT UP: vs NU (2 gms), vs Gonzaga (3 gms)

Nicholls 16-3 (128 RPI)

Lost vs Tulane midweek, swept DH vs non-D1 SE Baptist midweek, swept Grambling in 3 gms on weekend
Nicholls has played a pretty atrocious schedule so far, so the trip to Lincoln will be a big test for them
Nicholls has scored in double figures in 8 of their last 10 games
NEXT UP: vs Non-D1 Dillard (1 gm), at NU (3 gms)

New Mexico St 9-6 (259 RPI)

Swept 3 games from Prairie View A&M
NMST has won 7 in a row, scoring double figures in all 7 games, but they've played an awful schedule
I'd be pretty surprised if they don't go 0-5 this week
NEXT UP: at Texas Tech (2 gms), vs Sam Houston (3 gms)

_____

Teams we've played:

Baylor 4-11 (NU W) (163 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 0-1 vs Dallas Baptist, 0-3 at Houston
UP NEXT: vs Stephen F Austin (1 gm), vs Texas Tech (3 gms)

Texas Tech 11-4 (NU L) (45 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 1-0 vs New Mexico, 1-2 vs Texas
UP NEXT: vs New Mexico St (2 gms), at Baylor (3 gms)

Oklahoma 9-5 (NU L) (10 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 1-0 vs Wichita St, 3-0 vs UCF
UP NEXT: vs Okla St (1 gm), vs UT Arlington (1 gm), at TCU (3 gms)

Grand Canyon 9-7 (NU WWLW) (109 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 0-2 vs Oregon, 3-0 at Stephen F Austin
UP NEXT: vs Tarleton St (3 gms)

College of Charleston 10-4 (NU WWW) (186 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 1-0 vs Liberty, 2-1 vs Penn
NEXT UP: vs Charleston Southern (1 gm) vs Wofford (3 gms)

South Alabama 11-5 (NU LWW) (51 RPI)

LAST WEEK: 0-1 vs New Orleans, 1-2 vs Nebraska
NEXT UP: at Missi St (1 game), vs Georgia St (3 gms)

Edited March 11, 2024 by throwback

Bugeaters1 · March 11, 2024

throwback · March 11, 2024

B1G Boyd's World RPIs through 4 weeks:

3 Nebraska (9-4)
39 Maryland (12-4) (3 H)
49 N'western (6-7) (3 A)
55 Indiana (9-6) (3 H)
62 Rutgers (10-4) (3 A)
65 Purdue (12-4)*
71 Ohio St (7-6) (3 H)
97 Iowa (7-8) (3 H)
116 Michigan (5-11)*
127 Illinois (5-9)*
129 Penn St (9-5)*
152 Michigan St (5-9) (3 A)
193 Minnesota (6-7) (3 A)

* NU doesn't play

Non-con opponents:

10 Oklahoma (9-5) -- L (1 N)
40 bluebirds (11-2) (2 A, 1 H)
45 Texas Tech (11-4) -- L (1 N)
48 Wichita St (9-5) (2 A)
51 South Alabama (11-5) -- LWW (3 H)
68 Kansas (9-5) (1 A, 1 H)
82 K-State (9-6) (1 A, 1 H)
98 North Dakota St (3-11) (1 H)
109 Grand Canyon (9-7) -- WWLW (4 A)
128 Nicholls (16-3) (3 H)
158 South Dakota St (7-9) (1 H)
163 Baylor (4-11) -- W (1 N)
186 Coll of Charleston (10-4) -- WWW (3 A)
259 New Mexico St (9-6) (3 H)
293 Omaha (2-12) (1 H)

The Pac-4:

66 Oregon (11-4)
111 UCLA (5-9)
136 Washington (4-7)
178 USC (4-11)

What our quads look like right now (understanding it's still way too early and they'll change a lot):

Q1: 0-1 (8 total games)

L – Oklahoma (N)
XX – Wichita St (A)
XX – bluebirds (A)
XXX – Northwestern (A)

Q2: 3-2 (14 total games)

L – Texas Tech (N)
WWLW – Grand Canyon (A)
XXX – Maryland (H)
XXX – Rutgers (A)
X – bluebirds (H)
X – Kansas (A)
X – K-State (A)

Q3: 5-1 (24 total games)

WWW – Coll of Charleston (A)
LWW – South Alabama (H)
XXX – Indiana (H)
XXX – Ohio St (H)
XXX – Iowa (H)
XXX – Michigan St (A)
XXX – Minnesota (A)
X – Kansas (H)
X – K-State (H)
X – N Dakota St (H)

Q4: 1-0 (9 total games)

W – Baylor (N)
XXX – Nicholls (H)
X – S Dakota St (H)
XXX – New Mexico St (H)
X – Omaha (H)

Can't imagine NW or the bluebirds will stay in Q1, hopefully they both stay Q2, but they probably won't - it'd be nice if we could get a few more Q3s to bump up to Q2.

Quad 1: Home games vs. RPI 1-25, neutral site games vs. 1-40, road games vs. 1-60
Quad 2: Home games vs. RPI 26-50, neutral site games vs. 41-80, road games vs. 61-120
Quad 3: Home games vs. RPI 51-100, neutral site games vs. 81-160, road games vs. 121-240
Quad 4: Home games vs. RPI 101+, neutral site games vs. 161+, road games vs. 241+

And what a brutal start for Iowa - if they still think they're hosting a regional, they need to go 35-5 the rest of the way ... and even that might not be enough with their schedule.

Edited March 12, 2024 by throwback

Huskerpapa · March 12, 2024

We should be getting Overbeek back pretty soon, shouldn't we?

throwback · March 12, 2024

On 3/12/2024 at 3:53 AM, Huskerpapa said:

We should be getting Overbeek back pretty soon, shouldn't we?

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Sounds like at least by the weekend & he may even give it a go for one of the games in Wichita, at least for a few innings.

Once he's back, that'd allow Stokes to move to 2nd to take over after Brumbaugh's injury and should solidify the infield far better than where it's been of late. Stokes is a more natural 2nd baseman than a 3rd baseman.

I'd say it's 50/50 whether Brumbaugh is able to play 2nd base at any point the rest of the season, so it'd be great if Stokes can settle in there.

throwback · March 15, 2024

Thought I'd pop this in here one more time -- like taking a picture of the scoreboard after the first quarter -- but it's headed downhill starting tonight. Not too far down, hopefully, just have to win.

We'll be one-third of the way through the season after this weekend, so RPI is starting to be meaningful.

hskr4life · March 17, 2024

Iowa STRUGGLING and probably safe to say we’re the B1Gs best shot to host.

hskr4life · March 18, 2024

Hello!

hskr4life · March 18, 2024

throwback · March 18, 2024

B1G Boyd's World RPIs through 5 weeks:

4 Nebraska (13-5) (-1 spot vs last week)
32 Maryland (15-5) (3 H) (+7)
39 Rutgers (10-4) (3 A) (+23)
53 Ohio St (10-8) (3 H) (+18)
64 N'western (7-9) (3 A) (-15)
65 Indiana (9-6) (3 H) (-10)
79 Purdue (12-4)* (-14)
91 Iowa (10-9) (3 H) (+6)
136 Michigan (7-13)* (-20)
140 Illinois (7-11)* (-13)
165 Michigan St (7-10) (3 A) (-13)
169 Penn St (11-6)* (-40)
212 Minnesota (8-9) (3 A) (-19)

* NU doesn't play

Non-con opponents:

5 Oklahoma (13-6) -- L (1 N) (+5)
56 K-State (13-6) (1 A, 1 H) (+26)
57 bluebirds (14-3) (2 A, 1 H) (-17)
66 South Alabama (12-8) -- LWW (3 H) (-15)
70 Texas Tech (14-6) -- L (1 N) (-25)
71 Wichita St (13-6) -- WL (2 A) (-23)
93 Kansas (10-8) (1 A, 1 H) (-25)
95 Grand Canyon (11-8) -- WWLW (4 A) (+14)
103 Nicholls (17-6) -- WWW (3 H) (+25)
124 North Dakota St (5-14) (1 H) (-26)
127 South Dakota St (10-10) (1 H) (+31)
132 Coll of Charleston (12-6) -- WWW (3 A) (+56)
155 Baylor (7-12) -- W (1 N) (+8)
233 New Mexico St (10-10) (3 H) (+26)
300 Omaha (3-15) (1 H) (-7)

The Pac-4:

47 Oregon (13-6) (+19)
104 Washington (6-8) (+32)
171 USC (6-13) (+7)
176 UCLA (7-11) (-65)

What our quads look like right now:

Q1: 0-1 (7 total games) (-1 game)

L – Oklahoma (N)
XX – bluebirds (A)
X – K-State (A)
XXX – Rutgers (A)

Q2: 4-3 (14 total games) (NC)

L – Texas Tech (N)
WWLW – Grand Canyon (A)
WL – Wichita St (A)
XXX – Northwestern (A)
XXX – Maryland (H)
X – Kansas (A)

Q3: 6-1 (25 total games) (+1)

W – Baylor (N)
WWW – Coll of Charleston (A)
LWW – South Alabama (H)
X – bluebirds (H)
XXX – Indiana (H)
XXX – Ohio St (H)
XXX – Iowa (H)
XXX – Michigan St (A)
XXX – Minnesota (A)
X – Kansas (H)
X – K-State (H)

Q4: 3-0 (9 total games) (NC)

WWW – Nicholls (H)
X – N Dakota St (H)
X – S Dakota St (H)
XXX – New Mexico St (H)
X – Omaha (H)

Living in Quad 4 this week - need to go 5-0.

Season is 1/3 over already, so RPIs are starting to hold some actual weight. Amazing that we're still top 5. If they aren't already, expect every team south of us to start crying about how we're gaming the system.

Still lots of moving up and down the RPI rankings for all our opponents. Nicholls is close to Q3, which would be nice. If we could end the year with only 6 Quad 4 games, that'd look really good on a Northern team's resume - would show we made a big effort to upgrade the schedule. C of C took a big jump this week and is closing in on Q2, which would also be nice.

Quite a few B1G teams had an RPI dip last week, but 4 of the teams that lost ground aren't on our schedule, so not quite as bad as it could be. Hopefully Minnesota doesn't fall much farther.

Quad 1: Home games vs. RPI 1-25, neutral site games vs. 1-40, road games vs. 1-60
Quad 2: Home games vs. RPI 26-50, neutral site games vs. 41-80, road games vs. 61-120
Quad 3: Home games vs. RPI 51-100, neutral site games vs. 81-160, road games vs. 121-240
Quad 4: Home games vs. RPI 101+, neutral site games vs. 161+, road games vs. 241+

Edited March 18, 2024 by throwback

HB · March 18, 2024

Thanks for all of this work, Throwback; it is much appreciated.

hskr4life · March 18, 2024

On 3/18/2024 at 8:12 PM, HB said:

Thanks for all of this work, Throwback; it is much appreciated.

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I 2nd this! Boys are looking good… but against relatively good teams. That’s a good combo come May.

throwback · March 21, 2024

I'll just drop this in here - Warren Nolan's site is not great at predictive metrics, but if this one happens to be accurate for our final record, conference record, and RPI, we will be a top 8 national seed guaranteed.

Even if we can get all 3 Ws this weekend and put up an 18-5 start, the 44 wins predicted here might be a bit crazy, but 40-41 wins isn't completely crazy. And 40-41 wins would be regional hosting territory.

https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/team-sheet-predict?team=Nebraska

(These quadrants are not accurate, by the way - NCAA changed the quadrants for this season, and this site hasn't updated them yet.)

Edited March 21, 2024 by throwback

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