GoBigRed

Source? Your last post here claimed Miles was going to New Mexico. I want you to be right, but you weren’t about Miles to New Mexico.

Yeah it's whatever. Every team will stay ahead of us or jump us because these bracketologists are all hell-bent on Quad 1 wins. Everyone is going to have more than us, so they'll always just pass us.

LOL there was a guy on Twitter who had Washington ahead of Nebraska because "Washington beat Kansas and Nebraska didn't." Truly amazing some of the people that think they are expert bracketologists. What's funny is Arizona State will move out of all the bracketologists' brackets, but they will still be ahead of us. Just watch for it. No one is going to move us up guys. ASU, Alabama, Oklahoma, Baylor, USC, etc. could all lose and fall out, but they'll all stay ahead of us. Screw 'em all.

Been looking through a lot of data, and this is interesting. In the last 3 years: 2017 Average BPI of at-large teams: 28.2 2017 Average SOR of at-large teams: 26.5 2017 Average RPI of at-large teams: 28.6 2016 Average BPI of at-large teams: 30 2016 Average SOR of at-large teams: 29.2 2016 Average RPI of at-large teams: 30 2015 Average BPI of at-large teams: 32 2015 Average SOR of at-large teams: 28.7 2015 Average RPI of at-large teams: 30.4 Dumbed down version: The SOR has been a MUCH more reliable indicator than BPI and RPI for determining the at-large selections. 2017 Highest BPI At-Large Team: 57 2017 Highest SOR At-Large Team: 51 2017 Highest RPI At-Large Team: 61 2016 Highest BPI At-Large Team: 80 2016 Highest SOR At-Large Team: 62 2016 Highest RPI At-Large Team: 68 2015 Highest BPI At-Large Team: 116 2015 Highest SOR At-Large Team: 60 2015 Highest RPI At-Large Team: 58 Dumbed down version: BPI is a horrible predictor of at-large selections. SOR is the best indicator as an SOR worse than 62 has not been included in the last 3 years (bubble teams at 62 or worse currently: Arizona State, Utah, Alabama, LSU, Washington) 2017 Best BPI Not In: 32 2017 Best SOR Not In: 40 2017 Best RPI Not In: 33 2016 Best BPI Not In: 34 2016 Best SOR Not In: 38 2016 Best RPI Not In: 30 2015 Best BPI Not In: 36 2015 Best SOR Not In: 35 2015 Best RPI Not In: 28 Dumbed down version: Teams with good BPIs (32, 34) have been left out, as have teams with good RPIs (28, 30). The best final SOR to not be in the tournament was 35, and the other years were 38 and 40. (Bubble teams currently 31-35: NC State, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Arkansas, Nebraska...funnily enough most of these are considered locks). My point is SOR is the most reliable metric of these 3 and it IS on the official NCAA RPI Team Sheets this year, so the committee will see it. Why this metric is not more talked about? I have no idea. Why this metric is not the basis for the quadrant system instead of the ridiculously outdated and manipulated RPI? I have no idea. Feel free to share this with your favorite committee members.

All you Twitter snappers can take that SOR I just did and post it and share it all over the Interwebs for all I care. What do you think is more telling of Rider: the 67th best team in the country (RPI) or the 100th best team in the country (SOR)? Or Northeastern: 55 RPI, 84 SOR. Would you rather play at 55 RPI Northeastern, or at 87 RPI Oklahoma State? Yeah I'll take Northeastern every day and twice on Sundays. Northeastern lost to Ohio State by 25. Penn State beat Ohio State three times. Penn State has an RPI of 80, but look at their SOR: 57. There is a reason the SOR much more significantly resembles the tournament field than the RPI. Why the quad system utilizes RPI is a travesty and one that should seriously be investigated. How in the hell does Northeastern have an RPI of 55? Their best wins are #56 at home, #84 at home, #94 at home and away. Their worst losses are to #163 neutral and #242 away. So what's the deal? Well, their worst RPI opponents are 242, 242, 247, 247, 247, 273, 273. Nebraska's are: 263, 324, 326, 351. Basically the RPI says we suck because Tim Miles couldn't read into the future that Eastern Illinois, Stetson, Marist and Delaware State were going to be absolutely pathetic at basketball. And this is where the "they have a weak non-conference SOS, they didn't play anybody" talk comes from. It's asinine. We played at Creighton, Kansas, at St. John's, but because the awful teams we scheduled turned out to be more awful than usual "we didn't play anybody." Who gives a flying **** if you beat the 200 RPI or the 350 RPI. It is seriously all the same thing. And yet it DRASTICALLY impacts your RPI. If all the power 5 teams would stop playing these craptastic teams, their athletic departments would all cease to exist. Does the NCAA want to encourage that? If nobody takes on Delaware State and their pathetic metrics, then good luck to them surviving without guarantee checks. If you replace Delaware State, Marist, Stetson and Eastern Illinois with wins over say: Elon, North Dakota State, Lamar, Western Carolina - all at home - then our RPI is 38 instead of 68. You think we wouldn't beat the snot out of those teams? Sorry for the rant, this stuff infuriates me and it is disgusting that people make an extremely comfortable living to make decisions based off this asinine metric. When the entire quad system is based off what your RPI is, and this proves what a crapshoot the RPI is, then why is it the foundation for your selection process.

To continue my rant: SOR RK: Rank of Strength of Record (SOR) among all Division I teams. SOR reflects the chance a typical 25th ranked team would have team's record or better, given the schedule on a 0 to 100 scale, where 100 is best. 35. Nebraska 38. Texas 40. Marquette 41. Baylor 42. Butler 43. Missouri 45. Oklahoma State 46. Louisville 47. Providence 49. St. Mary's 50. Syracuse 52. UCLA 57. Penn State 59. Notre Dame 60. USC 62. Arizona State 64. Utah 65. Alabama 73. Washington

There are 1 or 2 surprises every year and there's no reason it can't be us this year. No one expects us to get in because of our lack of Quad 1 wins. Fine. The committee will discuss the Minnesota game and that will carry a lot of weight, borderline Quad 1 win weight in my opinion. They will discus our lack of opportunities to beat anybody significant at home other than Kansas (which was a buzzer beater). They will discuss the ESPN SOR ranking, which we are at 35 right now and historically the top 40 is safe for an at-large spot. They will discuss the notion of putting a bunch of teams with losing conference records in the NCAA Tournament. They will discuss how the Big Ten is not nearly as bad as all of the bracketologists are claiming it is. There are a lot of things that can be discussed in our favor, it is just that none of the "bracketologists" dive that deeply into it. They are surface bracketologists, looking purely at numbers and ridiculous metrics like RPI. Drop Delaware State from our schedule and our RPI is 48. If you're going to use a metric like that where 48 to 63 is determined by playing one atrocious Division I team instead of an atrocious Division II team, then God help us all.

Believe me, I think the RPI is a crock and I don't look at it at all. Providence was a lock to me because they've beaten Villanova, Xavier, Creighton and Butler. They do have more horrible losses than I realized, so you may be right if Creighton blows them out. I still would not give us the edge over Providence, if I'm being unbiased. There are some Big 12 teams that I would, however...cough cough. Washington has terrible numbers, but they beat Kansas on the road and Arizona. Their worst loss is better than ours. If they beat USC I could easily see them switching spots with them. Either way, it's irrelevant because I still see the Pac 12 getting 4 teams in no matter the combination (Arizona, USC, UCLA, Utah, Washington, Arizona State).

That is way too optimistic. A&M is in. Very much need them to beat Alabama. Florida State is in. Very much need them to beat Louisville. Butler is in. A loss to Seton Hall will not hurt them. Providence is in. A loss to Creighton will not hurt them. Our best case scenario over the next couple days: Atlantic 10 Rhode Island or St. Bonaventure must win conference tournament ACC Florida State > Louisville UNC > Syracuse (after Cuse beats Wake Forest) Virginia Tech > Notre Dame (after Notre Dame beats Pitt) Nebraska above Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame Big 12 Texas Tech > Texas (after Texas beats Iowa State...Texas probably still gets in easily) West Virginia > Baylor Kansas > Oklahoma/Oklahoma State winner Nebraska above Baylor, OU/OSU loser Big East Villanova > Marquette (after Marquette beats DePaul) Nebraska above Marquette Mountain West Need Nevada to win conference tournament Pac-12 USC > Washington (after Washington beats Oregon State; loser of this game probably below us) Oregon > Utah Nebraska above 2 of of the quarterfinals losers SEC Texas A&M > Alabama Tennessee > Mississippi State (after MSU beats LSU) Nebraska above Alabama, Mississippi State WCC Gonzaga wins tournament BYU > St. Mary's (semifinal) Nebraska above St. Mary's -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I see 15 teams competing for 6 spots right now and in this dream scenario I could see us in 4th for those 6. Need a lot to go our way though and a lot of bubble teams to stop upsetting these "quality" teams, which continues to be the case unfortunately.

What did we do to deserve this? Year after year, decade after decade, century.... When will it ever be "our turn" to go to the tournament and win one damn game. It's not like we're talking about a final four here, we're talking about being in the last 32 teams just one time. The most talented team we've had in 25 years isn't even going to get into the 68. &$#!.

You have to remember too that the SOR you looked at includes postseason, so for example #35 Miami was only 35 because they went on an NIT run, same for Minnesota at 37 in 2014 and Iowa at 36 in 2013. If we beat Michigan, it would be an unprecedented exclusion to leave us out if our SOR is in the upper 20s/low 30s. We can't say for sure what the best SOR is to be left out because the numbers before the NCAA Tourney aren't out there, but it's safe to say the top 35 should be extremely safe and even the top 40 has been almost a lock.

And I'll say it again, Taylor will play a ton. Whether he scores or not, they love him. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Palmer is a baller guys. The only person I see maybe outscoring him is Watson. But it would be very close. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No, Gill is looking very good.

Watson Palmer Roby Copeland Tshimanga Off bench: Taylor Gill Jack Allen Duby It will be very close to this. Can't wait to see this team play.

McVeigh...you gotta hit some shots. Their 9-22 to our 5-21 from 3 is the difference.

Dayton is 10-22 (46%) from 3. What do you consider good?

He started and was easily outplayed by freshman Tyus Battle off the bench. I haven't read any Syracuse message boards, but I imagine it goes something like "Why is this guy starting over Tyus Battle?" I imagine that won't be the case for long.

11 points for Justin Patton tonight in a loss. 23 points for Johnny Trueblood (19 in 1st half) in a win and looks like he didn't play in the 4th quarter. Hey, next year started today

This is a joke. We aren't even trying on defense. Just put 5 walk-ons in.

What does it even matter? The moment #10 wrapped his arm around Fuller's neck = FOUL. Malicious or not, I don't care. Should have been a foul and our ball (as Maryland was on offense, making it even more comical. Real offensive "basketball move" there.)

Learned tonight that you can now wrap your arm around another player's neck and toss him down without a foul being called, right in front of an official. However, you shall not handcheck, even if you make no contact, you shall not attempt to swipe at the ball.

New scheduling strategy for next year: No road games in non-conference. Play 9 Big Ten road games and call it good. Hope to go 21-9. Clearly whatever "experience" we got at Rhode Island, FSU, Hawaii, does not matter one single bit.

Same was said about Aleks Maric, and couldn't be more true now. He was dogged on most of his career for not being able to hit 3-footers consistently. Yet still would score 20 or even 30 in games. Where would this team be with Aleks Maric in the post right now? A top 15 team most likely.

I'd rather have a loss in the 0-50 category than have one in the 150+ category. Completely agree. But you also might have gone 1-2 after you beat Hawaii and it really would have been a wash effect on the RPI if you ask me. RPIWizard says if we had beaten Hawaii, then lost to Wichita State and Colorado, our RPI would be 112 right now and we'd be 12-10. Instead, we are 13-9 and our RPI is 103. Even had we beaten Colorado, our RPI would be 99, only 4 spots better. So you are correct. Where this team really hurt its chances this season was Incarnate Word and Creighton. A stretch of four fateful days in December in our own arena.