Yes it's a real factor for an extremely small percentage of players. The players that this affects is probably less than 5% in reality. There are plenty of guys that were on Nike AAU teams that chose adidas and vica versa. Kansas, Indiana, UCLA, Louisville, Michigan before the Nike switch, etc all have tremendous basketball teams and were able to pull in talent. Many of which were stars in the Nike EYBL. Yes it will influence some but there's so much talent out there that it shouldn't make or break you otherwise you weren't that good to begin with.
One of Adidas' top NBA designers was at my daughters birthday party yesterday and asked him about this issue. He said he knows it happens and has dealt with the slimy AAU guys before. He said the only players at the end of the day it gets are the insecure ones that are letting people guide them instead of deciding for themselves. He said he recently spent a couple days with Andrew Wiggins. He was saying how so many people tried getting involved between coaches, agents, etc even in high school and how many were upset with his decision to choose Kansas after being a Nike AAU guy and Nike Canada representative. He said at the end of the day he knew no matter what that the decisions he himself made would be good enough and that if he played the way he knew could that he would be just fine.
Now will this factor in at nebraska? Maybe once in awhile but it shouldn't be often. Plus look at recent history and we will see that Glynn Watson (under armour), Ed Morrow (Nike) both highly ranked guys chose nebraska and should continue getting guys of that nature going forward as long as they win.
Always love your insight! Awesome post kamdy