2024 Baseball

[AuroranHusker]

7 minutes ago, throwback said:

Not sure we can put too much on weekend 1 ... or 2 for that matter. We will have a ton of new faces in the lineup and on the bump, and asking them to be lights out from the start against those high major southern teams is asking a lot. Grand Canyon in weekend 2 is no slouch either - they really tend to play well against the northern teams that go down there early in the season - and they have a hitter-friendly park. They did lose to Michigan and Mich St early last season, but they went 2-0 vs Ohio State and 1-0 vs Tennessee, too, so we'll see.

 

We certainly will battle on those first two weekends, but if we are over .500 after those first 7 games, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

 

NU feels like a team that may need a few weekends to really get ramped up and to figure out who is ready to actually excel at this level. Hope I'm wrong and they start red hot, but it'd be pretty surprising.

 

I'll be down in PHX a couple weeks later, ironically when NU is having their season home opener, it would have fun to watch the Huskers play in Phoenix. Hopefully the team comes out of the gate firing offensively, at least.

 

[hskr4life]

24 minutes ago, throwback said:

Not sure we can put too much on weekend 1 ... or 2 for that matter. We will have a ton of new faces in the lineup and on the bump, and asking them to be lights out from the start against those high major southern teams is asking a lot. Grand Canyon in weekend 2 is no slouch either - they really tend to play well against the northern teams that go down there early in the season - and they have a hitter-friendly park. They did lose to Michigan and Mich St early last season, but they went 2-0 vs Ohio State and 1-0 vs Tennessee, too, so we'll see.

 

We certainly will battle on those first two weekends, but if we are over .500 after those first 7 games, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

 

NU feels like a team that may need a few weekends to really get ramped up and to figure out who is ready to actually excel at this level. Hope I'm wrong and they start red hot, but it'd be pretty surprising.

 

Right-- I'm not saying that weekend 1 or even 2 for that matter is make or break for the season.  However, as you mentioned, having a solid 1st and 2nd weekend would mean that we're probably ahead of the learning curve for some of the young guys and good things are on the horizon.  A not so great 1st and 2nd weekend means that we'll have a lot of work to do.  

[Huskerpapa]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

 

Right-- I'm not saying that weekend 1 or even 2 for that matter is make or break for the season.  However, as you mentioned, having a solid 1st and 2nd weekend would mean that we're probably ahead of the learning curve for some of the young guys and good things are on the horizon.  A not so great 1st and 2nd weekend means that we'll have a lot of work to do.  

We need to set the tone early if we want to place ourselves into the top 15 teams in the country.  That is one of our goals, correct?

Sooo, we need to win.

 

[throwback]

I know I've mentioned this in past years, but the actual chances of NU ever hosting a regional again are pretty small. I appreciate the coaches throwing that out there as a goal, but to be in the Top 16 playing out of the B1G is almost impossible.

 

You have to win 19+ conference games (emphasis on the plus), dominate the league's regular season race, avoid any early upsets in the B1G tournament, dominate all mid-week games, plus have winning weekends going south out of the gate. It's really, really tough. For a team in the B1G, it almost always takes 40+ wins in the regular season plus a few in the conference tourney. You better have a bunch of MLB draft picks on your team to pull that off.

 

It's not impossible, but you have to be dominant from start to finish to pull it off as a northern school. Since we joined the B1G, there's usually one league team every 2-3 years that has a realistic shot. Those aren't great odds. 

 

Having said all that, I think our 2021 team was good enough to host had we played a normal season. So you never know. I believe our schedule is tough enough this year that if we get to 40+, we'd have a chance. Not sure we have several MLB draft picks on the team right now, but maybe some guys become those players.

 

Maybe having B1G teams host more regularly gets a little easier when we add some better teams like UCLA, Oregon, and USC next year, but the league schedule probably will be so jacked up that it won't matter much. I doubt those western schools want any part of playing more than 24 B1G games. They can keep their schedule strength higher playing west coast teams in a non-con series than hosting N'western in a conference series in February.

 

[AuroranHusker]

The 17-team B1G baseball conference will be very interesting as far as scheduling. It ought to help the overall league in terms of "power," but that's debatable until we actually see a scheduling format going forward. 

 

[throwback]

OWH says today the league is planning on a 30-game conference schedule with divisions - have to say I'm surprised. The only way to pull that off is to send traditional B1G teams to LA/Eugene/Seattle for late Febr and early March weekends. That means the Pac-4 have to spend a lot of time on the road on April and May weekends, just when you want to gain momentum. 

 

So with 30 games, you end up playing 10 of your 16 possible opponents versus 8 of 12 now. Divisions become a necessity to have the regular season be an actual test. You have to treat it like having 2 regular season champions. Then top 4 in each division go to Omaha.

 

Will be curious how they split divisions. They might do east-west, but I think they have to split up the Pac-4 to make the schedule work better, so those Pac-4 teams can host conference games early in the year to beat the weather. Maybe they rotate Ore/Wash and USC/UCLA between the divisions every 2 years.

 

West (ish) - Oregon, Wash, NU, Minn, Iowa, NW, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue

East (ish) - USC, UCLA, Rutgers, Md, PSU, Ohio St, Mich, Mich St,

 

So maybe NU's 2025 schedule looks like:

 

Feb wk 3 - At UCLA* 

Feb wk 4 - At non-con series

Mar wk 1 - At Oregon**

Mar wk 2 - at non-con

Mar wk 3 - home non-con

Mar wk 4 - vs Minn**

Mar wk 5 - at Illinois**

Apr wk 1 - vs Wash**

Apr wk 2 - vs Purdue**

Apr wk 3 - Home non-con

Apr wk 4 - at NW**

May wk 1 - vs Iowa**

May wk 2 - at Indiana**

May wk 3 - vs Ohio St*

May wk 4 - B1G tourney

 

UCLA's might look like:

Feb wk 3 - vs NU* 

Feb wk 4 - vs Rutg**

Mar wk 1 - vs Mich St**

Mar wk 2 - home non-con

Mar wk 3 - vs Illinois*

Mar wk 4 - home non-con

Mar wk 5 - at Md**

Apr wk 1 - at PSU**

Apr wk 2 - home non-con

Apr wk 3 - at Michigan**

Apr wk 4 - Home non-con

May wk 1 - at Washington*

May wk 2 - at Ohio St**

May wk 3 - vs USC**

May wk 4 - B1G tourney

 

Maybe they do something like saying even though NU is playing at UCLA in Feb wk 3, those count as NU 'home' games for conference scheduling to try to make the Pac-4 teams have to travel less later in the year. Then they can say they're giving everyone 5 'home' series and 5 road series, even though it'd actually be 4 and 6 for NU and 6 and 4 for UCLA. Then UCLA wouldn't have to travel as much late in the year - on this schedule, if they did that, maybe they'd get Penn St at home instead of on the road. And NU might end up going to Purdue instead of being at home.

 

Will be interesting to see how they split it up. Going to take some next-level math to fit all the pieces together. They need to do it fairly quickly, as it's always tough to set up non-conference series.

 

By the way, Oregon will be in Arlington for our opening weekend, although we don't play the Ducks. We'll have some common opponents, though.

 

[throwback]

NU got outside multiple days this week, which is great. Having the indoor facility is such an advantage, but there's nothing like getting outdoors several times before the 1st game. 

 

Even had a chance to scrimmage a bit at Den Hartog late in the week. Not sure we answered our starting pitching questions around consistency during the scrimmages, though.

 

The first weekend in Arlington is going to be a crapshoot on the bump it would appear. This is kind of what I was afraid of coming out of fall. Everything on the pitching staff just sets up so much easier when you have one guy step up and take control of the Friday job. Sets the tone for everyone else. (Well, other than last year  when Olson was the dude from the start, but we struggled with depth. Depth won't be an issue with this group I don't think, meaning short leashes are in order.) 

 

Figuring out who to use and when could be quite the challenge for Coach Childress that first weekend. Nice to have someone with his experience making the decisions, though. He's gone into a season -- or several of them -- in this kind of situation before, so I'm confident he'll figure it out. It just might not be with the players he thought it would be in October.

 

PS - I'm not a 'fan day' person, but it looked like they had a blast last night with a good crowd. 

[Bugeaters1]

 

[Bugeaters1]

 

[throwback]

Took a peek at the schedule - based off 2023 RPI, which probably doesn't tell us all that much about 2024, but it's at least a start.

 

NCAA changed the Quadrant metrics for 2024, although there's no change to how they calculate RPI:

 

• Quad 1: Home games vs. RPI 1-25, neutral site games vs. 1-40, road games vs. 1-60
• Quad 2: Home games vs. RPI 26-50, neutral site games vs. 41-80, road games vs. 61-120
• Quad 3: Home games vs. RPI 51-100, neutral site games vs. 81-160, road games vs. 121-240
• Quad 4: Home games vs. RPI 101+, neutral site games vs. 161+, road games vs. 241+

 

https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2024-01-05/walk-songs-ncaa-tournament-new-selection-process-headline-changes-2024-di-baseball

 

Based on that, here's our Quads based on 2023 final RPI:

 

Q1 Games (3)

2 (N)   Tex Tech / Okla

1 (A)    K-State

 

Q2 Games (26)

9 (H)   Iowa / Indiana / Maryland

17 (A)   Grand Canyon / Coll of Char / Wichita St / Kansas / Rutgers / Mich St

 

Q3 Games (9)

4 (H)  K-State / Ohio St

5 (A)  Creigh / Minn

 

Q4 Games (18)

1 (N) Baylor

14 (H)  S Alabama / Nicholls / Omaha / N Dak St / N Mex St / Creigh / Kansas / S Dak St

3 (A) N'western

 

Not sure these new Quad designations help us all that much, but we'll see. Lots of potential Q2 opportunities potentially. Sucks that 2 of our potential 3 Q1 opportunities are in the first weekend when we're going to be feeling our way, but that's life in the B1G.

 

Sounds like Boyd's World will do its projected RPI for 2024 pretty soon, like it did last year, so that should provide a better look into the actual strength of schedule. I'm guessing the predictive analytics will not like NU very much, considering how many high-quality at bats and innings we have to replace from last year.

 

Edited February 6 by throwback

[throwback]

Peek ahead at our soon-to-be-B1G baseball brethren and where they're projected for 2024:

• UCLA - 2nd in Pac-12, NCAA qualifier
• USC - 3rd in Pac-12, NCAA qualifier
• Oregon - 5th in Pac-12, NCAA qualifier
• Washington - 7th in Pac-12

https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2024-02-03/2024-pac-12-baseball-predictions-projected-finishes

[hskr4life]

2 hours ago, throwback said:

Took a peek at the schedule - based off 2023 RPI, which probably doesn't tell us all that much about 2024, but it's at least a start.

 

NCAA changed the Quadrant metrics for 2024, although there's no change to how they calculate RPI:

 

• Quad 1: Home games vs. RPI 1-25, neutral site games vs. 1-40, road games vs. 1-60
• Quad 2: Home games vs. RPI 26-50, neutral site games vs. 41-80, road games vs. 61-120
• Quad 3: Home games vs. RPI 51-100, neutral site games vs. 81-160, road games vs. 121-240
• Quad 4: Home games vs. RPI 101+, neutral site games vs. 161+, road games vs. 241+

 

https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2024-01-05/walk-songs-ncaa-tournament-new-selection-process-headline-changes-2024-di-baseball

 

Based on that, here's our Quads based on 2023 final RPI:

 

Q1 Games (3)

2 (N)   Tex Tech / Okla

1 (A)    K-State

 

Q2 Games (26)

9 (H)   Iowa / Indiana / Maryland

17 (A)   Grand Canyon / Coll of Char / Wichita St / Kansas / Rutgers / Mich St

 

Q3 Games (9)

4 (H)  K-State / Ohio St

5 (A)  Creigh / Minn

 

Q4 Games (18)

1 (N) Baylor

14 (H)  S Alabama / Nicholls / Omaha / N Dak St / N Mex St / Creigh / Kansas / S Dak St

3 (A) N'western

 

Not sure these new Quad designations help us all that much, but we'll see. Lots of potential Q2 opportunities potentially. Sucks that 2 of our potential 3 Q1 opportunities are in the first weekend when we're going to be feeling our way, but that's life in the B1G.

 

Sounds like Boyd's World will do its projected RPI for 2024 pretty soon, like it did last year, so that should provide a better look into the actual strength of schedule. I'm guessing the predictive analytics will not like NU very much, considering how many high-quality at bats and innings we have to replace from last year.

 

A few thoughts…

 

1. interesting to see a home game be a Q3 and road game a Q1.  (KSU)

 

 

2. Ya gotta think Baylor will be improved more than a Q4 this year.

 

3. Would be nice for a few of those away series to move up a quad, but I don’t see much at home that could move up.

 

[AuroranHusker]

I noticed that NU softball is playing a four-game tourney in Mexico, starting 2-8.

[throwback]

11 hours ago, hskr4life said:

A few thoughts…

 

1. interesting to see a home game be a Q3 and road game a Q1.  (KSU)

 

 

2. Ya gotta think Baylor will be improved more than a Q4 this year.

 

3. Would be nice for a few of those away series to move up a quad, but I don’t see much at home that could move up.

 

The teams we really need to be improved at least a little from last year are Minnesota, N'western & the bluebirds. Playing 9 games against those guys with 8 of them on the road, they don't have to improve much to give us a quad boost. And if Grand Canyon or Coll of Char could be just a little better, they could bump into Q1. 

 

Right now, it looks like Iowa, K-State, and Tex Tech are the best teams on the schedule.

 

Also important to remember that road games count as 1.3 in the RPI, while home games count as 0.7, so the tight quad splits make a little sense in that there's already a built-in bonus to playing and winning on the road.

 

[HB]

On 1/29/2024 at 7:50 PM, AuroranHusker said:

 

I'll be down in PHX a couple weeks later, ironically when NU is having their season home opener, it would have fun to watch the Huskers play in Phoenix. Hopefully the team comes out of the gate firing offensively, at least.

 

 

I have tickets to all 4 games of the Grand Canyon series.  Really looking forward to it.

[AuroranHusker]

40 minutes ago, HB said:

 

I have tickets to all 4 games of the Grand Canyon series.  Really looking forward to it.

 

I'm going to miss it, barely. Have an awesome time, HB!!

 

[throwback]

Warren Nolan's predicted B1G finish:

https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/conf-prediction-all

 

1 Iowa

2 Maryland

3 Indiana & Mich St

5 Rutgers

6 NU & Illinois

8 Ohio St

 

9 Penn St

10 Michigan

11 Purdue

12 Minny

13 N'western

 

We miss the underlined teams on the schedule. Now, his formula predicts Iowa to go 24-0 and Maryland to go 23-1, so I'm not sure how much stock to put into it. I've never found Warren Nolan's site to be all that good at predictive metrics. But at least it's something.

 

Our non-con opponents' predicted conference finishes:

• Baylor - 12th Big XII
• Texas Tech - 3rd Big XII
• Oklahoma - 7th Big XII
• Grand Canyon - 1st WAC
• Coll of Charleston - 5th Coastal Athletic
• South Alabama - 11th Sun Belt
• Wichita St - 4th American Athletic
• Nicholls - 1st Southland
• Omaha - 4th Summit
• N Dakota St - 2nd Summit
• N Mexico St - 9th (last) Conf USA
• K-State - 6th Big XII
• bluebirds - 3rd Big East
• Kansas - 9th Big XII
• S Dakota St - 3rd Summit

If this is remotely accurate, Nicholls should be much improved from a year ago, which would help get them out of Q4. And the Big XII is certainly tough in the top half, but I'd expect K-State to be a bit better than 6th.

 

Edited February 7 by throwback

[throwback]

Warren Nolan NU prediction:

 

RPI 72

Record 33-23

SOS 52

Non-con record 21-11

Conference record 12-12

Home 21-6

Road 11-15

Neutral 1-2

 

https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-predict-nitty

 

The site has quad predictions too, but it's still listing the NCAA's old Quad breakouts - here's the conversion to the new breakouts:

 

Quad 1: (0-7)

• Home games vs. RPI 1-25  --  None
• neutral site games vs. 1-40  --  Tex Tech (0-1)
• road games vs. 1-60  --  at Rutgers (0-3), at K-State (0-1), at Wichita (0-2)

Quad 2: (8-10)

• Home games vs. RPI 26-50  --  Maryland (1-2), Indiana (3-0)
• neutral site games vs. 41-80  --  Oklahoma (0-1)
• road games vs. 61-120  --  at Mich St (0-3), at Coll of Char (4-0), at Grand Canyon (0-4)

Quad 3: (9-5)

• Home games vs. RPI 51-100  --  K-State (0-1), Nicholls (3-0), Iowa (0-3)
• neutral site games vs. 81-160  --  Baylor (1-0)
• road games vs. 121-240  --  at Kansas (0-1), Creigh (2-0), Minny (3-0)

Quad 4: (17-0)

• Home games vs. RPI 101+  --  Ohio St (3-0), Kansas (1-0), South Alabama (3-0), N Dakota St (1-0), Creigh (1-0), S Dakota St (1-0), N Mexico St (3-0), Omaha (1-0)
• neutral site games vs. 161+  --  None
• road games vs. 241+  --  N'western (3-0)

Yeah, I know the individual games add up to 34-22. The site also lists us at 31-25 in another spot. Like I said, this site never has been all that good at predictive metrics, especially for individual games.

 

Such as, the site has Iowa at 49-5 for the season record prediction with an RPI of 82. Makes no sense. To be fair to Warren Nolan, Iowa plays a T-R-A-S-H non-con and misses Maryland, Indiana, & Mich St in the B1G. (Might as well hand Iowa the regular season trophy now.) So their SOS will be gawd awful. They probably will game the system a bit, as they scheduled Auburn & Georgia in neutral games & Ole Miss for 3 on the road, so Iowa will get an SEC bump from those games, even though they're playing lower-end SEC teams.

 

But at least Warren Nolan gives a starting point at least for the season as a whole. I'll wait for Boyd's World for an accurate prediction, though.

 

Edited February 7 by throwback

[hskr4life]

We seem to have been getting quite a few days outside so far this year.  That could be beneficial for us and it’s not something I would have thought would happen 2-3 weeks ago.

[The Polish Rifle]

I'm gonna go one record and say I hate the block N hats. Too chunky for a baseball hat. Gonna miss the hell out of the skinny N for baseball hats. 

 

[throwback]

15 hours ago, The Polish Rifle said:

I'm gonna go one record and say I hate the block N hats. Too chunky for a baseball hat. Gonna miss the hell out of the skinny N for baseball hats. 

 

Couldn't agree more - I get Trev wanting everyone (except football) to use the iron N ... but he's wrong on this one, because it's butt ugly. Give me the baseball N 100 times out of 100.

 

[throwback]

 

 

 

[throwback]

 

[throwback]

 

[AuroranHusker]

On 2/6/2024 at 10:08 PM, The Polish Rifle said:

I'm gonna go one record and say I hate the block N hats. Too chunky for a baseball hat. Gonna miss the hell out of the skinny N for baseball hats. 

 

 

 

Yeah, I own 2 of those hats; doubtful that I will be getting the giant 'N' hat. It shouldn't have been touched, same applies for the football helmet.