Question for our Creighton Friends

[Norm Peterson]

How do you think the graduation of Echinique effects your team?

 

Dougie will probably be Dougie:  23 points; 8 rebounds.  Something like that. 

 

Gibbs is probably not a double-figure scoring guy.

 

Wragge's stat line might benefit from the absence of Echinique.

 

But who fills the role of holding down the paint on D?  Of giving you an inside threat to keep defenses honest?  If Echinique isn't drawing attention in the paint, does that allow teams to cheat on the perimeter with defense? 

 

Take Nebraska for example.  You blew us out in Lincoln last year.  And Echinique did a lot of damage in that game.  He had a double-double and drew a lot of fouls on our bigs.  We didn't have a guy who could really man up and match him last year and we might not this year either but we don't need to worry about him since he's gone.

 

I could envision Nebraska fielding lineups in the Creighton game with 4 guys between 6'6" and 6'8" on the floor at the same time (along with whoever's playing point guard) and switching every screen.  Now, you guys probably still win that one but it seems like we could make it closer.

 

So, how big of a loss is Echinique?  What are your thoughts?

[Badgett Fan]

Huge loss.  I’d rate the loss at somewhere between what Nebraska is losing in Talley and what they’re losing in Ubel, with it being closer in significance to the Talley loss, who I feel is the bigger loss of those two.  With that in mind, Nebraska’s proportionally bringing in more new bodies (7 new guys if none redshirt- with only 5 true scholarship returnees) this year than Creighton is (6 new guys and one will probably redshirt- with 8 returnees of note), so maybe losing Echenique is comparable to losing both Talley and Ubel, since there will be less replacement at CU.  But, because the quality gap of the two squads was historically pretty high last year, the loss is still not that important when you’re talking about the CU vs. NU game.  I do think this one will be closer, assuming Nebraska’s defense doesn’t take too much of a step back this season.  If it does, the Huskers are in for a really long year, IMO.  You gotta look at changes for all 12 Big 10 teams, and without some Tim Frazier and Drew Crawford-type injuries this year, I think Nebraska moves a little closer to the Big 10 median without necessarily winning any more games.

No one will fill the role of holding down the paint on D.  I get what you're saying as far as what his absence means for opponents.  But, without rambling too much, I think additional experience, conditioning, and what can at least be hoped for from a couple of the new guys will counterbalance some of what the team will miss. 

 

Still a net loss, though.  With Echenique, Creighton could always feel comfortable against whatever big men were wearing the opposite uniform.  Last couple of years, Creighton got torched by numerous guards and wings.  This year, some big guys are likely to go off on the Jays.  But, if there is just some minimal defensive improvement from spots 1-4 and some semblance of an offensive threat from Creighton outside of Doug and jump shots (mainly 3s), the relative standing of the team should be similar to the past two seasons, albeit with probably more losses, due to the conference change.

[Norm Peterson]

I see what you're saying, Badgett Fan, but here's the thing about no Echinique. 

 

If I was game planning for Creighton last year, I'd have to figure out a way to stop Doug McDermott that still allows me to try to hold Echinique in check.

 

This year, I just game plan for McDermott.  Yeah, you've got some other shooters and guys who can score besides Doug, but none of them force me to play a big or double the post like he did.

 

So, this year, I play, let's say, Petteway at 6'6", Shields at 6'7", Rivers at 6'7", and then either Pitchford or Smith down low.  And then obviously someone playing point.  I can switch every single screen.  All of those three guys can guard the post if need be.  Maybe not for long stretches but on a switch they sure can.  That lineup gives me length, it gives me athleticism, and it allows me to guard the post straight up man without having to worry about being killed underneath by Greg E.

 

And what that does is allow me to play Doug tighter.  You won't be able to create favorable mis-matches with screens as easily because Petteway, Shields and Rivers would be interchangeable parts.  And if I have Webster playing point, well, he's also about 6'3".  Or Petteway can play point and I can roll in another 6'7" kid in Fuller. 

 

Last year, we didn't have anyone who could play Echinique straight up and he killed us.  12 pts, 12 bds and he drew a lot of fouls.  If we tried doubling the post, you killed us with Doug or with one of your other perimeter shooters.  This year, what I'm asking is, do you have anyone who can force us to play big in order not to get killed inside as much?

 

I don't know the answer but I honestly see us playing it that way if you don't have that dominating big man this year.  The whole complexion of the game changes without Echinique.  We can be more aggressive with guarding your shooters if we don't have to worry about getting dominated in the paint.  And I suspect we'll throw about 4 different guys at Doug McDermott throughout the game. 

 

Maybe we let Doug get his 30 points because he's just really good and will be able to score regardless and just make Doug beat us while trying to stifle everyone else.  And if we can shut everyone else down, Doug can't beat us alone.  If Doug goes off for 30 but we hold everyone else to 30, then you've only scored 60 and it only takes 61 to beat you.

 

Some people seem to have written this game off for us already.  I'm not sure it's a foregone conclusion that we lose.

[Norm Peterson]

Our significant advantage this year over last is the number of athletic players we have in the 6'6" to 6'8" range.  And, yeah, we lack an inside bruiser and might wish that we had a big body in conference games, but I don't think Creighton has one either this year.  Maybe I'm wrong on that but I don't think they do.

 

So, now, it's your strength of Doug McDermott and his ability to score from anywhere versus our strength of having a versatile array of athletic wings who can each guard multiple positions.  I think that's what this game will come down to.

[JayPak]

Not saying he's the best post defender in the country as was Echenique, but Zach Hanson is going to surprise Creighton foes in the post.

[Norm Peterson]

Not saying he's the best post defender in the country as was Echenique, but Zach Hanson is going to surprise Creighton foes in the post.

IIRC, he's the guy we tried to recruit who, uh, turned us down.  As in we didn't move on to other targets and lose interest in him the way people are saying we did with Leon Gilmore.  However, he's still a true freshman, right?  Which means he's probably not going to be totally developed as a player yet.  Which means I still think we can play straight up man and not have to double the post.  Probably.  We'll see.

[Badgett Fan]

Norm, you're right about the complexion of the game changing this year. I went back and looked to see that Echenique played 26 minutes, which was quite a few for him. He may have been the most important CU player that game, when you look at stats and what he meant with his size and strength.

But, teams have to put points on the board. Nebraska held Creighton to its 5th lowest point total of the season, 4th lowest outside of the Duke game, and lowest outside of Duke and a bad 5 game stretch in February. And CU still won by 22. I agree that Echenique's impact went well beyond his own point and rebound total. Still, remove all players who are no longer at NU or CU from the box score, and count the "team" rebounds as returning player rebounds. and Creighton had 52 points and 28 boards. Nebraska had 12 points and 16 boards.

The new Nebraska players will have a big impact this year in all games, including the CU game. Partially, cause they have to if Nebraska wants to win any games. But, they're also replacing 2 (in some games 3) players who were as or more vital to the Huskers as/than Echenique was to the Jays. Will the new lineups matter in Omaha enough to make the game more competitive than last year? Maybe. Enough to win. Very, very doubtful. Nebraska should win 12 to 16 games this year, just not that one.

[Creighton Fan]

Norm, this is a good, and fair, question.  In order to break it down, I think you have to separate it into offense and defense. 

 

Defensively he's a huge loss.  GE was an elite level defender and Creighton NEVER had to double an opponent's big while GE was here.  He took on plenty of top tier talent and handled it well.  He shut down Zellers from Carolina.  He single handedly put two of the all american Duke bigs in foul trouble.  He shut down Akron's Zeke MArshall who was an NBA prospect.  An opposing offensive player could not back GE down; if one tried, they simply bounced off of him.  Simply not ever having to double opposing big men left Creighton with a lot of flexibility on defense.  He was also a rebounding machine on the defensive end, holding opponents to only one shot opportunity on offense. 

 

Offensively is a different story.  Big Greg didn't average double digit points.  His hands were not good and he had a lot of turnovers.  His lack of offensive game is why he is not in the NBA.  He certainly had some good offensive games on occasion, but he was never a big time scoring threat.  He was a good, but not superior, offensive rebounder.

 

Where we are really lucky is that we have 3 centers on the team, which is why you don't see Creighton pursuing any Elbert robinson types this recruiting season.  Greg McDermott, a former college big, loves him his centers.  Will Artino, 6'11", who didn't play much against Nebraska, is a much more skilled offensive player than GE and really produced at times despite very limited minutes.  He is nowhere near the defender however.  If teams play off the center to shut down Doug, Artino could really make them pay because not only is he good right under the basket, but he can step out and shoot it as well.

 

Center 2 is a legit 7 footer, Geoffrey Groselle. He has battled some injuries, but had some big offers coming out of HS.  He hasn't had many minutes due to injuries and our depth at the position.  The third center is true frosh Zach Hanson, who, as you correctly mentioned above, was a top target of Miles and is already garnering rave reviews from coaches.  He has the build of GE, is already 250 lbs, and after working in the weight room for several years, could really become a special player.  He may redshirt if Groselle is healthy, which would be nice.

 

On top of those guys is Wragge, who while more of a forward, filled in at center a fair amount the last two years.  Wragge is a three point assassin and poses a very tough defensive assignment to a big guy used to only defending the paint.  They aren't usually used to chasing guys out beyond the three point arc and Wragge has lit them up when they get lazy or leave him open.  Coach Mac has said that, unlike your contention above, Doug has often been most effective when Wragge is on the floor with him.  

 

In summary, defensively Echenique is irreplaceable.  Offensively, I think Creighton will be able to replace his production and maybe even add to it. 

 

One last comment related to last year's Creighton-Nebraska game.  I don't recall GE being a dominant force in that one.  The margin of victory had more to do with the fact that Nebraska really only had one true 3 pt threat and Manigat consistently ran him off the three point line and otherwise shut him down completely.  McDermott said that Manigat's performance on Gallegos was the most dominant performance he ever remembered by a guy that didn't score a single point.  Mangat's play that game is truly the secret of Creighton's success the last couple of years -- the unselfishness that allows players to play hard without scoring at all or even getting many touches on the offensive end of the floor.  Those types of unselfish players are what truly allow stars like Doug to shine.

[Milk]

Good analysis Creighton Fan, you pretty much hit the nail in the head.  If I recall correctly, Gibbs was a huge force in the game last year as well.  Constant drive pull up alley oop passes.  You can't quantify his IQ, leadership, and court awareness, its so valuable. Norm said he isn't a double figure scorer, he is not supposed to be.  That's not his role.   It is him that will make CU's bigs even better on the offensive end, he makes things easier.  Artino will benefit greatly with him.  He will make opponents pay countless and countless times again this year.

[Tony]

Good question, Norm. You cannot replace an Echenique, however there are players who are definitely capable of stepping up. It may be a "by committee" position. What helps is that whoever it is, they will be part of a very experienced, often very well -tuned team with some very capable newcomers thrown in the mix. Artino and Doug work very well together on the high low post. McDermott is going to have to be double teamed by most teams, which should open it up for Artino' with Groselle and Hanson providing capable backup duty. Gibbs will be able to feed the ball to where it will do the most good. Team chemistry/experience should be a positive from the start, along with the unselfishness.