2024 Baseball

[hskr4life]

1 hour ago, throwback said:

The way B1G play has started, the league is far closer to a 1-bid league than a 4-bid league.

 

The league is a S*** show right now.  My goodness.  

[throwback]

The preseason B1G predictions don't look so good thru the nearly 1/3 point of league play. 

 

B1G Standings

• 5-0 NU
• 7-2 Illinois
• 6-3 Michigan
• 3-2 Indiana
• 5-4 Iowa
• 4-4 Purdue
• 3-3 Mich St
• 2-3 Ohio St
• 3-5 Maryland
• 3-5 Penn St
• 2-4 Minnesota
• 1-4 Rutgers
• 0-5 N'western

Woof. Although it's fun to see Iowa, Rutgers, and Maryland scuffling, and although their struggles help us work toward winning a B1G regular-season title, this isn't helping our hopes to host a regional. It'd be nice if Maryland could win tomorrow vs Indiana and salvage one game in that series.

 

At this rate, if we want to host a regional, we're probably looking at needing to get to 19-plus B1G wins in the regular season and be nearly perfect in the remaining non-con games. Not a lot of room for error, but at least we're in control of our own destiny for the most part. Just keep winning. 

 

Edited April 7 by throwback

[HuskerActuary]

Currently, Warren Nolan projects that a 41-15 record would give us an RPI of 11. I'm a little surprised how the math works out for us to finish 21-11 and see an improvement of our RPI by 3 spots, but that's what he says. That would say we have more room for error than what throwback describes.

 

https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-predict

[AuroranHusker]

I'd suggest that Nebraska gets 40+ dubs after the regular season, it is worthy of hosting. Take the tourney, and that's borderline national seed. Just my thoughts, a lot of hard work to accomplish after that 1st B1G loss today. Keep on keepin' on!

 

[Bugeaters1]

Waldron is on the bump again today. He gave up 3 hits, 5 K's, 1 base on balls and 1 run in 5.1 innings.

 

Edited April 7 by Bugeaters1

[hskr4life]

Not a huge surprise that we’re staying relatively the same for Top 25 rankings, even moving up in some polls.  When I saw how some teams above us did, it made me appreciate a 2-2 week more than I was feeling.

 

RPI wise, we’re down to #18 which isn't

terrible but just goes to show how little room for error we have.

 

KU checks in at 84 and Rutgers at 57 in the RPI as of today.  Big chances for road W’s against top 100 teams this week.

[Bugeaters1]

 

[throwback]

B1G Boyd's World RPIs (http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html) through 8 weeks:

• 17 Nebraska (22-7) (-5 spots vs last week)
• 29 Maryland (22-10) (3 H) (+3)
• 50 Ohio St (13-14) -- WWL (3 H) (+16)
• 57 Indiana (18-15) (3 H) (+43)
• 59 Rutgers (19-12) (3 A) (-16)
• 68 Illinois (16-13)* (+18)
• 89 Michigan (14-18)* (+15)
• 92 Purdue (20-12)* (+23)
• 96 N'western (10-18) -- WWW (3 A) (-15)
• 108 Michigan St (14-15) (3 A) (+9)
• 137 Iowa (16-13) (3 H) (-35) 
• 158 Minnesota (12-14) (3 A) (-13)
• 192 Penn St (16-12)* (+15)

* NU doesn't play

 

Non-con opponents:

• 24 Oklahoma (17-14) -- L (1 N) (+5)
• 26 K-State (20-10) (1 H) (+11)
• 34 bluebirds (24-5) -- Lx (2 A) (1 H) (+5)
• 43 Texas Tech (24-9) -- L (1 N) (+16)
• 64 Nicholls (23-11) -- WWW (3 H) (+30)
• 71 Coll of Charleston (20-10) -- WWW (3 A) (+30)
• 75 South Alabama (17-15) -- LWW (3 H) (-19)
• 93 Kansas (15-14) (1 A) (1 H) (-33)
• 97 Grand Canyon (16-15) -- WWLW (4 A) (-8)
• 101 Wichita St (19-13) -- WL (2 A) (-24)
• 141 Baylor (13-18) -- W (1 N) (+13)
• 155 North Dakota St (8-19) -- W (1 H) (-20)
• 202 South Dakota St (13-16) (1 H) (+6)
• 208 New Mexico St (12-18) -- WW (2 H) (-5)
• 292 Omaha (8-20) -- W (1 H) (+6)

The Pac-4:

• 54 Oregon (22-8) (+11)
• 103 USC (15-16) (+5)
• 152 Washington (9-15-1) (-56)
• 153 UCLA (12-17) (+21)

What our quads look like right now:

 

Q1: 0-3 (7 total games) (0 change in total games from last week)

• L – Oklahoma (N)
• L – Texas Tech (N)
• LX – bluebirds (A)
• XXX – Rutgers (A)

Q2: 12-3 (24 total games) (+3)

• WWLW – Grand Canyon (A)
• WWW – Coll of Charleston (A)
• WL – Wichita St (A)
• X – K-State (H)
• X – Kansas (A)
• X – bluebirds (H)
• WWW – Northwestern (A)
• WWL – Ohio St (H)
• XXX – Michigan St (A)
• XXX – Maryland (H)

Q3: 6-1 (14 total games) (-3)

• W – Baylor (N)
• LWW – South Alabama (H)
• WWW – Nicholls (H)
• X – Kansas (H)
• XXX – Indiana (H)
• XXX – Minnesota (A)

Q4: 4-0 (8 total games) (0)

• WW – New Mexico St (H)
• W – N Dakota St (H)
• W – Omaha (H)
• X – S Dakota St (H)
• XXX – Iowa (H) 

---------

• Quad 1: Home games vs. RPI 1-25, neutral site games vs. 1-40, road games vs. 1-60
• Quad 2: Home games vs. RPI 26-50, neutral site games vs. 41-80, road games vs. 61-120
• Quad 3: Home games vs. RPI 51-100, neutral site games vs. 81-160, road games vs. 121-240
• Quad 4: Home games vs. RPI 101+, neutral site games vs. 161+, road games vs. 241+

 

Not a huge change from last week, other than Ohio St moving into Q2. Kind of surprised Maryland hasn't lost more ground with back to back series losses.

 

Big week upcoming with 4 Top-100 RPI road games, although if we win the series at Rutgers, they probably fall to Q2. 

 

Iowa has solidly placed itself in Q4. Definitely didn't have that on my bingo card back in February. Indiana made a huge surge, though, and they're approaching Q2, as did Nicholls.

 

Edited April 9 by throwback

[throwback]

 

[AuroranHusker]

Back-to-back weeks being ranked, a 1st for NU since being Big Ten Champions in June 2021.

[Bugeaters1]

Bummer is on the bump tonight for the Braves.

[AuroranHusker]

5 minutes ago, Bugeaters1 said:

Bummer is on the bump tonight for the Braves.

 

That last name is a 'bummer' for Aaron, tbh. 

[throwback]

[hskr4life]

I love it when Husker players WANT to be here.  This article about Sears was a good read.

https://omaha.com/sports/huskers/baseball/it-s-go-time-how-brett-sears-went-from-struggling-reliever-to-nebraska-baseball-ace/article_35356d37-15e5-51de-859a-849f5660900d.html

 

 

He grew up a Husker fan in a Husker household. He knew NU coaches had inquired about him but never reached out directly. So on a cold January day he drove to Lincoln to perform at a team prospect camp.

 

“I said, ‘I’m just going to put myself in front of them and make them recruit me,’” Sears said. “I did well and committed.”

 

Coaches liked the fastball and initially saw him as a reliever. That projection became cloudier as Sears struck out 114 batters and walked just 22 with a 3.06 ERA across 85 innings at Central that spring. SEC and Big 12 schools checked in on him. Kansas State came with a strong late offer that gave the pitcher pause.

Playing for the Huskers — with his family of Big Red backers nearby across the Missouri River — was too surreal to pass up.

[hskr4life]

Only Sunday’s game on TV.  Everything else on BTN+

[hskr4life]

This seems like a decent spot for the conference.  Are we always this high?

[throwback]

 

B1G standings thru week 4:
7-2 Illinois
6-3 NU
8-4 Purdue
8-4 Michigan
5-4 Indiana
5-4 Ohio St
6-6 Iowa
5-7 Maryland
5-7 Penn St
3-6 Rutgers
3-6 Minnesota
3-6 Mich St
2-7 N'western

 

Week 5 B1G Schedule
Maryland at NU
Ohio St at Michigan
N'western at Illinois
Indiana at Minnesota
Rutgers at Iowa
Penn St at Michigan St
Purdue OFF

 

B1G Boyd's World RPIs (http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html) through 9 weeks:
16 Nebraska (23-10) (+1 spot vs last week)
44 Ohio St (17-15) -- WWL (3 H) (+6)
46 Rutgers (22-13) -- LWL (3 A) (+13)
53 Maryland (23-14) (3 H) (-24)
69 Illinois (16-13)* (-1)
70 Indiana (20-16) (3 H) (-13)
71 Purdue (23-13)* (+21)
103 Michigan (17-20)* (-14)
107 N'western (12-20) -- WWW (3 A) (-11)
118 Michigan St (14-19) (3 A) (-10)
130 Iowa (18-15) (3 H) (-7)
141 Minnesota (14-16) (3 A) (+17)
152 Penn St (18-14)* (+40)
* NU doesn't play

Non-con opponents:
19 Oklahoma (21-14) -- L (1 N) (+5)
37 Texas Tech (26-11) -- L (1 N) (+6)
38 K-State (21-13) (1 H) (-12)
45 bluebirds (26-7) -- Lx (2 A) (1 H) (-11)
81 Coll of Charleston (24-10) -- WWW (3 A) (-10)
86 South Alabama (20-16) -- LWW (3 H) (-11)
91 Grand Canyon (19-16) -- WWLW (4 A) (+6)
93 Kansas (19-14) -- L (1 A) (1 H) (0)
100 Nicholls (24-13) -- WWW (3 H) (-36)
101 Wichita St (21-16) -- WL (2 A) (0)
117 Baylor (16-18) -- W (1 N) (+24)
201 North Dakota St (10-21) -- W (1 H) (-46)
211 New Mexico St (15-19) -- WW (2 H) (-3)
219 South Dakota St (15-18) (1 H) (-17)
289 Omaha (10-22) -- W (1 H) (+3)
The Pac-4:
63 Oregon (25-10) (-9)
79 USC (17-18) (+24)
166 UCLA (13-20) (-13)
190 Washington (11-17-1) (-38)

 

What our quads look like right now:
Q1: 1-5 (7 total games) (0 change in total games from last week)
L – Oklahoma (N)
L – Texas Tech (N)
LX – bluebirds (A)
LWL – Rutgers (A)

 

Q2: 12-4 (21 total games) (-3)
WWLW – Grand Canyon (A)
WWW – Coll of Charleston (A)
WL – Wichita St (A)
L – Kansas (A)
X – K-State (H)
X – bluebirds (H)
WWW – Northwestern (A)
WWL – Ohio St (H)
XXX – Michigan St (A)

 

Q3: 6-1 (17 total games) (+3)
W – Baylor (N)
LWW – South Alabama (H)
WWW – Nicholls (H)
X – Kansas (H)
XXX – Maryland (H)
XXX – Indiana (H)
XXX – Minnesota (A)

 

Q4: 4-0 (8 total games) (0)
WW – New Mexico St (H)
W – N Dakota St (H)
W – Omaha (H)
X – S Dakota St (H)
XXX – Iowa (H) 
---------
Quad 1: Home games vs. RPI 1-25, neutral site games vs. 1-40, road games vs. 1-60
Quad 2: Home games vs. RPI 26-50, neutral site games vs. 41-80, road games vs. 61-120
Quad 3: Home games vs. RPI 51-100, neutral site games vs. 81-160, road games vs. 121-240
Quad 4: Home games vs. RPI 101+, neutral site games vs. 161+, road games vs. 241+

 

Maryland dropped from Q2 to Q3 this week, and that was the only major change in our RPI projections. 

Well, we caught a break by playing good teams on the road, even though we didn't win much. The 1-3 week didn't cost us anything in RPI ranking. Actually moved up a spot.

 

Those benefits are not going to be there the next couple of weeks on this 8-game homestand, though. We have to start racking up wins now, or the RPI will take a nose dive, especially since Maryland & Iowa are playing like garbage.

 

We also need to move back to the top of the league standings. We're not going to be in the host discussion unless we can win a B1G title, I'd imagine.

 

It certainly looks like the B1G is struggling since preseason favorites like Iowa, Maryland, and Indiana are not playing great, and because NU is the only NCAA tourney 'lock' at this point, although the B1G's overall RPI is pretty solid. The bottom of the league is playing far better than expected, which helps. Nobody is really, really terrible. Maybe Iowa.

 

Either way, I think we need to win the regular season for the 'eye' test. The NCAA committee is willing to give the best northern team the benefit of the doubt in terms of RPI, but we have to do our part and make ourselves look good. It'd probably help if Indiana State started to slide down the RPI list from #8, too. The NCAA would love two northern hosts, but they aren't going to give one of them the benefit of the doubt if the other one is solidly a host.

 

TL;DR: Last week didn't cost us much. Huge 2-week stretch coming up. No more margin for error. Time to take out some frustration on Maryland & Iowa (& the bluebirds & Kansas).
 

Edited April 22 by throwback

[throwback]

 

[hskr4life]

Not dead yet.

[HuskerActuary]

19 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Not dead yet.

Yeah. Warren Nolan projects that finishing 14-7 from here would give us an RPI of 16 (pre-conference tournament). I'm surprised. We're still in this.

[hskr4life]

So I noticed that MSU/Michigan play a 4 game set this year and it appears they'll get an extra game in the standings.  How is this possible?  Doesn't seem right, but does it happen every year?

[throwback]

22 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

So I noticed that MSU/Michigan play a 4 game set this year and it appears they'll get an extra game in the standings.  How is this possible?  Doesn't seem right, but does it happen every year?

They do sometimes play each other midweek, but the midweek games are counted as non-con games. Oklahoma & Okla State sometimes do the same thing once a year, usually at Bricktown or Tulsa's minor league park, or at least they used to. I think OU & OSU even went through a stretch where they'd play the 3 conference games at home, on the road, and neutral within one weekend.

 

[throwback]

B1G standings thru week 5:
10-2 Illinois
8-4 NU
8-4 Purdue
10-5 Michigan
9-6 Iowa
7-5 Indiana
6-6 Ohio St
5-7 Mich St

 

6-9 Maryland
6-9 Penn St
4-8 Minnesota
3-9 Rutgers
2-10 N'western

 

Week 6 B1G Schedule

• Iowa at NU
• Illinois at Maryland
• Minnesota at Penn St
• Mich St at Ohio St
• Rutgers at Indiana
• Purdue at N'western
• Michigan OFF

Remaining Schedule for Contenders

• Illinois: at MD, vs Ohio St, vs Iowa, at Purdue (remaining opponent record 29-25)
• NU: vs Iowa, at Minn, vs Indiana, at MSU (25-26)
• Purdue: at NW, vs Indiana, at Mich, vs Illinois (29-22)
• Michigan: at MSU, vs Purdue, at Indiana (20-16)
• Iowa: at NU, vs NW, at Illinois (20-16)
• Indiana: vs Rutg, at Purdue, at NU, vs Mich (29-22)
• Ohio St: vs MSU, at Illinois, vs NW, at Rutg (20-28)

Outside of OSU, we have the easiest schedule remaining by a little bit, but it's going to take some work to catch Illinois, especially if they win the series at Maryland this weekend. And don't sleep on OSU if they can win at Illinois, as they have the weakest schedule the last two weeks. Lots of games left where the contenders are playing each other.
_____

 

B1G Boyd's World RPIs (http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html) through 10 weeks:

• 19 Nebraska (25-12) (-3 spots vs last week)
• 46 Maryland -- WLW (25-16) (3 H) (+7)
• 51 Ohio St (19-17) -- WWL (3 H) (-7)
• 58 Rutgers (23-16) -- LWL (3 A) (-12)
• 69 Purdue (25-15)* (+2)
• 70 Illinois (23-13)* (-1)
• 77 Indiana (22-18) (3 H) (-7)
• 96 Michigan (20-21)* (+7)
• 106 Iowa (22-15) (3 H) (+24)
• 113 N'western (12-23) -- WWW (3 A) (-6)
• 114 Michigan St (14-19) (3 A) (+4)
• 151 Minnesota (16-18) (3 A) (-10)
• 160 Penn St (19-17)* (-8)

* NU doesn't play

 

Non-con opponents:

• 22 Oklahoma (24-14) -- L (1 N) (-3)
• 28 Texas Tech (29-13) -- L (1 N) (+9)
• 34 K-State (24-15) (1 H) (+4)
• 49 bluebirds (28-9) -- Lx (2 A) -- L (1 H) (-4)
• 65 Coll of Charleston (28-10) -- WWW (3 A) (+16)
• 68 South Alabama (23-17) -- LWW (3 H) (+18)
• 86 Kansas (21-15) -- L (1 A) (1 H) (+7)
• 99 Nicholls (27-14) -- WWW (3 H) (+1)
• 107 Grand Canyon (22-18) -- WWLW (4 A) (-16)
• 112 Wichita St (21-20) -- WL (2 A) (-11)
• 121 Baylor (18-20) -- W (1 N) (-4)
• 197 New Mexico St (17-22) -- WW (2 H) (+14)
• 215 South Dakota St (17-20) (1 H) (+4)
• 220 North Dakota St (12-22) -- W (1 H) (-19)
• 294 Omaha (12-23) -- W (1 H) (-5)

The Pac-4:

• 64 Oregon (27-12) (-1)
• 92 USC (19-21) (-13)
• 174 Washington (13-19-1) (+16)
• 189 UCLA (13-24) (-23)

 

What our quads look like right now:
Q1: 1-5 (7 total games) (0 change in total games from last week)

• L – Oklahoma (N)
• L – Texas Tech (N)
• LX – bluebirds (A)
• LWL – Rutgers (A)

Q2: 9-4 (17 total games) (-4)

• WWW – Coll of Charleston (A)
• WL – Wichita St (A)
• L – Kansas (A)
• X – K-State (H)
• L – bluebirds (H)
• WWW – Northwestern (A)
• WLW – Maryland (H)
• XXX – Michigan St (A)

Q3: 11-3 (21 total games) (+4)

• W – Baylor (N)
• WWLW – Grand Canyon (A)
• LWW – South Alabama (H)
• WWW – Nicholls (H)
• X – Kansas (H)
• WWL – Ohio St (H)
• XXX – Indiana (H)
• XXX – Minnesota (A)

Q4: 4-0 (8 total games) (0)

• WW – New Mexico St (H)
• W – N Dakota St (H)
• W – Omaha (H)
• X – S Dakota St (H)
• XXX – Iowa (H) 

---------

• Quad 1: Home games vs. RPI 1-25, neutral site games vs. 1-40, road games vs. 1-60
• Quad 2: Home games vs. RPI 26-50, neutral site games vs. 41-80, road games vs. 61-120
• Quad 3: Home games vs. RPI 51-100, neutral site games vs. 81-160, road games vs. 121-240
• Quad 4: Home games vs. RPI 101+, neutral site games vs. 161+, road games vs. 241+

 

We have several opponents dancing on the edge of Q2 / Q3, so those numbers may go back and forth a bit over the final month. We're also to the point where everyone has played enough games where you're not going to move a lot in RPI unless you have a really horrible or really dominant week. 

 

Even though we're still on the edge of hosting, we're going to have to play a lot better than we have in April to get there. This week is huge in that regard, as we can't lose home games to Q3 and Q4 teams without it costing us quite a bit, I would imagine. Plus we need to win the regular season to have any shot of hosting, so we really have to pick it up from here.

 

Great chance to win an emotional series this weekend to propel us into May on a high note. Lose the series this weekend to an Iowa team that is starting to round into form, and we'll still be on shaky ground heading into the time when you want to be playing your best.

 

Outside of a couple of big offensive performances, it's been incredibly frustrating to see our bats not heat up as the weather improves like we normally do. Until Sunday, we had so many weak, unconfident swings in key spots with RISP or 2 strikes. When you think how Columbus has been carrying us of late (and Brumbaugh and Sanderson to an extent), and all three of them have had long stretches were they weren't playing regularly through the first half of the season, it's a little frightening how much other guys have dropped off / stagnated since March. 

 

I know we changed up the pregame work a bit Sunday, so maybe that will be a turning point.

 

We should be scoring at a much higher rate than we are with how many runners we are putting on base. With an uncertain bullpen now, it's time for the offense to start pulling its own weight.

 

With the pitchers, it's been unbelievable how many poor results we're having after getting 2 strikes on the hitters. Not sure why we are giving up so many hits on 2-strike pitches, but that has to change if we're going to get back on track. Guys have to trust their stuff and hit spots. You start thinking about what the pitching staff would look like without Sears & Worthley (and Mac and Walsh much of the time), and it's pretty bleak. Again, a number of guys who've stagnated / regressed from where they were in March.

 

It just feels like we have a major confidence problem right now on the bump and in the box. Losing will do that, especially blowing a couple of multi-run 9th inning leads, but coaches need to figure it out and make the adjustments to get the mojo back. Maybe Sunday was the first step
 

Edited April 22 by throwback

[hskr4life]

Looking at the beginning of the year, we were pretty fortunate thinking we wouldn’t have to play most of the teams in the bottom half of the league.  Oh how the tables have turned since then.  
 

now you’re left with games against teams like Iowa that are Q4 home games.  Sucks.

Edited April 22 by hskr4life

[throwback]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

Looking at the beginning of the year, we were pretty fortunate thinking we wouldn’t have to play most of the teams in the bottom half of the league.  Oh how the tables have turned since then.  
 

now you’re left with games against teams like Iowa that are Q4 home games.  Sucks.

Preseason B1G predictions in baseball are pretty much worthless every year.  Guessing the predictions will only get worse when we add in the Pac-4, because everyone will assume those 4 are going to dominate. In reality, I'd guess Oregon would be the only one to make the 8-team postseason if those 4 were playing in the B1G this season.