College Football Playoffs HHC

[khoock]

For a couple years i have been doing my own little rankings of CFP contenders. I like to start after week 7. It usually gives you enough games to start seeing who teams are while still having some unknowns with about half the season stilk being left to play out. I thought i would share em with all of you. Feel free to comment and let me know what you think.

 

In the rankings i only include teams who are undefeated and one loss P5 teams. Aka teams with a chance to make the playoffs. (No two loss team has made it... yet)

 

I consider wins over .500 or better P5 teams, wins over G5 teams who have winning record, and losses if applicable. I also consider who you opponents have beat. I try to only look at what a team has done so far and not base off of projections or brand names.

 

Here are my first week rankings:

IN THE PLAYOFFS

1. Notre Dame

2. Alabama 

3. Ohio State

4. Clemson

STILL IN THE HUNT

5. LSU

6. Michigan

7. Texas

8. Florida

9. Oklahoma

10. Kentucky

11. NC State

WORK TO BE DONE

12. Georgia

13. Oregon

14. Iowa 

15. West Virginia

16. Duke

CHAOS NEEDED 

17. UCF

18. South Florida

19. Washington State

20. Colorado

21. Cincinnati 

 

Thought it would be a nice discussion for football junkies like myself.

Edited October 16, 2018 by khoock

[HuskerFever]

I also like to see if from the perspective of conferences. I feel like individual team rankings are overinflated for some conferences, which gives them higher rankings in the polls, but maybe that's just me.

 

My take right this moment is probably:

 

1. SEC

2. Big Ten

3. ACC+ND

4. Big 12

5. Pac-12

6. AAC

[khoock]

21 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

I also like to see if from the perspective of conferences. I feel like individual team rankings are overinflated for some conferences, which gives them higher rankings in the polls, but maybe that's just me.

 

My take right this moment is probably:

 

1. SEC

2. Big Ten

3. ACC+ND

4. Big 12

5. Pac-12

6. AAC

Id say ACC is the worst P5.

 

Its funny that the AAC is by far the best G5 conference and prob better than most years of Big East football (which was an auto bid conference at the time).

[HuskerFever]

2 hours ago, khoock said:

Id say ACC is the worst P5.

 

Its funny that the AAC is by far the best G5 conference and prob better than most years of Big East football (which was an auto bid conference at the time).

 

You're probably not far off. The ACC drops in my opinion without the likes of Notre Dame (only added them there since ND is in every other sport there). But I also struggle to take the Pac-12 seriously for awhile as they haven't had any legitimate contender for years.

[khoock]

On 10/16/2018 at 8:57 PM, HuskerFever said:

 

You're probably not far off. The ACC drops in my opinion without the likes of Notre Dame (only added them there since ND is in every other sport there). But I also struggle to take the Pac-12 seriously for awhile as they haven't had any legitimate contender for years.

Yes, I wasnt really including ND when thinking of the ACC.

 

Big 12 has two legitimate contenders in Texas and Oklahoma and a fringe one in West Virginia.

 

ACC has Clemson and not much else (does anyone really believe in NC State or Duke to finish with one loss or less AND win the conference? I dont.)

 

Pac 12 has a fringe contender in Oregon but nothing else after that (see what I said about NC St/Duke for Colorado and Wash St.) But they are much deeper than the ACC in my opinion.

[AuroranHusker]

I haven't paid all that much attention to playoff contention this season........ still can hardly believe NU was 7-0 and as high as 6th in CFP only two years ago... weird & wild stuff, as Johnny Carson's sidekick Ed McMahon would say.

 

 

[khoock]

It is kind of funny to think back on that. Mike Riley had us at 7-0 in playoff contention going into Wisconsin.

 

Which i believe was a close loss, right?

[The Polish Rifle]

On 10/15/2018 at 7:19 PM, khoock said:

 

My Top 10:

1. Bama

2. OSU

3. Notre Dame

4. Clemson

5. LSU

6. Michigan

7. Georgia

8. Texas

9. Oklahoma

10. Florida

Considered: Oregon, Kentucky, NC St

 

I like your list - hardest thing to do is rank those 1 loss SEC teams right now. Also Texas super weak loss, but beating Oklahoma forces them in the conversation. 

 

Also making this list has me craving an 8 team playoff. 

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, khoock said:

It is kind of funny to think back on that. Mike Riley had us at 7-0 in playoff contention going into Wisconsin.

 

Which i believe was a close loss, right?

 

Overtime, 23-17 UW. Nebraska had several convert'able' chances to win at the end of regulation.... and in OT. Ughh.

 

[khoock]

IN THE PLAYOFFS

1. Notre Dame

2. Clemson

3. Alabama

4. LSU

IN THE HUNT

5. Michigan

6. Kentucky

7. Texas

8. Florida

9. Oklahoma

10. Georgia

WORK TO DO

11. Iowa

12. Washington St

13. Ohio St

14. NC State

15. West Virginia

CHAOS NEEDED

16. UCF

17. South Florida

 

ELIMINATED

Oregon

Cincinnati 

Duke

Colorado 

[khoock]

I expect a lot of teams to get knocked out of playoff contention this week. Five or six wouldnt surprise me.

[khoock]

Boy was that a crazy week. I think 11 ranked teams lost.

 

IN THE PLAYOFFS

1. Notre Dame 

2. Clemson

3. Alabama

4. LSU 

IN THE HUNT

5. Michigan

6. Georgia

7. Oklahoma

8. Kentucky

9. Washington State

WORK TO DO

10. Ohio State

11. West Virginia

12. UCF

 

ELIMINATED

Texas

Florida

Iowa

USF

NC State

 

Tuesday is the first CFP rankings.

[hskr4life]

UCF at 12 is criminal... tonight.

Edited October 30, 2018 by hskr4life

[khoock]

52 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

UCF at 12 is criminal... tonight.

Im not too mad about it. Its kinda where i had them at. They havent beaten a team with a winning record yet this season. Not all of it is there fault. But they will have chances for quality wins against Temple, USF, Cincy, and Houston

[hskr4life]

I'd certainly have them ahead of Florida.

[khoock]

17 hours ago, hskr4life said:

I'd certainly have them ahead of Florida.

Ehhhh. Both of Floridas losses are  to one loss teams and they have great win at home over LSU and a solid road win Miss St.

 

UCFs best victory is a one point win over 4-4 Memphis, that recently got blown out by Mizzou.

 

If UCF finishes undefeated they will have a set of quality wins, but as of rn they have nothing going for them except being undefeated.

[khoock]

Resumes are really starting to take shape. Heres my take on it so far:

 

1. Clemson 9-0

2. Alabama 9-0

3. Notre Dame 9-0

4. Michigan 8-1

5. Georgia 8-1

6. Washington St 8-1

7. West Virginia 7-1

8. Oklahoma 8-1

9. UCF 8-0

10. Ohio St 8-1

[hskr4life]

35 minutes ago, khoock said:

Resumes are really starting to take shape. Heres my take on it so far:

 

1. Clemson 9-0

2. Alabama 9-0

3. Notre Dame 9-0

4. Michigan 8-1

5. Georgia 8-1

6. Washington St 8-1

7. West Virginia 7-1

8. Oklahoma 8-1

9. UCF 8-0

10. Ohio St 8-1

 

• Got to go with Alabama at #1.  No one has even come close to them yet this year.
• Up until this week, I had the Big 12 as possibility of being out of playoffs.  OU and WVU have to go into their end of November matchup with 1 loss each.  Then the winner of that one can't trip up a few weeks later in the conference championship game.  The Big 12 still has a chance.
• Michigan looks like the Big 10's only hope.
• If Notre Dame loses any of their remaining games, I think they are out with no conference championship game.
• Say Oklahoma loses to OKST.  Oklahoma then beats WVU.  tOSU loses to MSU and then beats Michigan.  Wash St loses @ Colorado and Notre Dame loses one of their last three games.  Does UCF sneak into the playoff?  None of those scenarios are totally out of hand I don't think.

 

[HuskerFever]

I think the easiest way to describe it is, if you're a 2 loss team there's a 98% chance you're out of the playoff conversation.

[khoock]

8 hours ago, hskr4life said:

 

• Got to go with Alabama at #1.  No one has even come close to them yet this year.

 

This is also how the committee will feel. But their schedule is just really, really bad. Bama's second best win is about as good as Clemson's fourth. And Clemson has been equally as dominant the past four games (outscoring opponents like 230-20 or something like that).

 

The win over LSU moved Bama up from three imo. Plus Notre Dame's signature wins keep on taking losses (aside from Michigan).

[khoock]

9 hours ago, hskr4life said:

 

• Say Oklahoma loses to OKST.  Oklahoma then beats WVU.  tOSU loses to MSU and then beats Michigan.  Wash St loses @ Colorado and Notre Dame loses one of their last three games.  Does UCF sneak into the playoff?  None of those scenarios are totally out of hand I don't think.

 

As for UCF, I moved them ahead of Ohio State bc they gained a win over a solid Temple team and Memphis and Pitt (now in first place of their ACC division) both won this week. As for the big picture, the other AAC teams arent really helping them out. Houston, Cincy, and South Florida have lost a combined 4 games in just the past few weeks. Thats really going to hurt their chances of collecting marquee/ranked victories. 

[khoock]

1. Clemson 10-0

2. Alabama 10-0

3. Notre Dame 10-0

4. Michigan 9-1

5. Georgia 9-1

6. Washington State 9-1

7. Ohio State 9-1

8. Oklahoma 9-1

9. West Virginia 8-1

10. UCF 9-0

 

- Clemson and Bama are neck and neck

- Notre Dame is comfortably at three with Georgia and Michigan fighting for that last spot

- Washington State is on an island. Safely ahead of the bottom group of contenders (for now) but not threatening to pass anyone ahead of them

- That bottom group is all prettt close with a mixture of bad losses or lacking marquee wins

[khoock]

Just to go a little deeper into my thoughts:

 

- Clemson: stuck with them at number one bc they have been just as dominant as Alabama over the past few weeks and have a slightly better collection of wins.

- Alabama: been dominant all season but aside from LSU all of the other teams they have beaten have a minimum of 4 losses. However, they have a chance to pass Clemson bc of a marquee SEC championship matchup. Whereas Clemson will likely face a 4 or 5 loss team in the ACC championship.

- Notre Dame: aside from week 1 they havent beaten a great team. Not for lack of effort (not their fault Stanford, USC, and VT are all down this year). They have two wins over P5 divisional champs (Northwestern and Pitt) and host a Syracuse team that will be ranked in the top 12 this weekend.

- Michigan: has the best loss of any contenders and a trio of solid, dominating wins (Penn St, Wisconsin, and Mich St). Add in a win over the Buckeyes and I dont see them getting left out.

- Georgia: got blown out at LSU while Bama went to LSU and spanked em. So doesnt look good on paper. Solid collection of wins against Florida, Auburn, and Kentucky but those wins have taken hits the last two weeks. If they win out they will get in.

- Washington State: a solid collection of wins but no marquee wins and a bad loss to USC. They need Washington and Utah to win out before beating them and some upsets from the teams above to have a chance.

- Ohio State: a pair of good road wins against Penn State and Michigan State. But a bad loss to Purdue. If they win out they prob get in based off of brand but imo definitely need a lot of help

- Oklahoma and West Virginia: both teams have wins over the team that beat the other (Texas and Iowa State) if that makes sense. Other than that not much that is impressive. 

- UCF: resume has gotten better with Pitt, Temple, and Memphis all at 6-4. But Houston and USF faltering down the stretch eliminates any chance for UCF

Edited November 13, 2018 by khoock

[khoock]

Just out of curiosity, who on this board is in favor of an 8-team playoff?

[Huskerpapa]

22 minutes ago, khoock said:

Just out of curiosity, who on this board is in favor of an 8-team playoff?

I struggle with the concept of more games for the student-athlete.  Other than that, I like the concept of an eight team playoff.