NUdiehard

Back when they used the RPI, many mid-major programs figured out a way to "game the system" with how they scheduled opponents. Now that they are using the NET, it seems there is a new formula to "game the system", and crafty coaches and programs will learn the system and craft their schedules to best utilize the idiosyncrasies of the NET. Playing in a P5 conference like the B1G with 20 conference games severely limits what can be done, but it makes it even that much more important to carefully craft the non-conference games that are scheduled. Also, as many have pointed out, since margin of victory is such a large factor, there is incentive to leave "sportmanship" aside and try to beat your opponent by as many points as possible, often by leaving in starters much longer than necessary to just "win" the game. Injuries are also a critical issue under the NET. Imagine this scenario. Team A has a solid core and wins all of its Q3 and Q4 games, and 60% of its Q1 and Q2 games with that core. But in the middle of the season, 4 of that teams starters get injured at the same time for a period of 5 games. During those 5 games that team gets absolutely drilled and loses each game by 30+ points. But, when the the injured players return, they immediately resume winning at the previous pace, including 60% wins vs. Q1 and Q2. The computers have no idea that the reason why Team A got smashed for 5 straight games is because it had 4 injuries to players that are now once again healthy. But the computer significantly downgrades Team A to the point where Team A may not even make the post season. This is a flaw in computers that can't factor in real world factors that affect outcomes of games and margins of victory.

I’m going to go against the grain here and posit that I want WB to continue to develop his 3 point shot and by his junior year I hope/expect him to be a 35%+ 3 point shooter

Breidenbach has definitely struggled and can be very hard to watch. BUT, we have seen a few young big men come through this program who look worthless their first few years but then develop into something valuable to the team. Brandon Ubel is a prime example. I would say Wilhelm compares a lot to Ubel. When Ubel was a freshman and sophomore, most of us really struggled to see why he was even on the team, let alone getting playing time. But by his senior year, he was a solid contributor and most of us were wishing he would have redshirted his freshman year so that he would be able to return for another year. I am counting on WB getting a medical RS for last year, which means he probably is just a freshman this year. Even though it is rough watching him play, it is too early to give up on him. He may be a much different play 2-3 years from now. I have no idea what to do with Oleg. He is really tall and has some skill, but he is sooooo skinny and weak. He gets pushed around so easy, even by much smaller players. He also really struggles to defend the perimeter. But, unless they can get someone better in the portal, Fred may hang on to him just to see if he can develop and get stronger.

If healthy, Keita today is a better inside defender and rebounder than Walker. Walker is a poor rebounder for a big man, and is an average at best inside defender. There is a reason that NU always doubled the post, it is because Walker could not ever handle his man one-on-one. Some of that is not his fault, he is a 6'7" playing center. On the defensive/rebounding end I would say Keita is every bit the dawg that Walker is and probably more. The areas where Walker far exceeds Keita is (1) passing ability, (2) dribbling, (3) touch around the rim, (4) decent hands and (5) defending the perimeter. Replacing that combination is going to be difficult, and maybe not possible. But its not like NU's offense MUST continue to operate through the high post. Just because Fred adapted to Walker's strengths this year doesn't mean it always has to be that way. Keita is not much of an offensive threat at all, at least not right now. He could develop that a bit over the next 2 years tho. I definitely think Keita is a keeper, but I would feel much better if he is a keeper coming off the bench because we get another big man in the portal who is better than him.

Sounds like Cale is a shorter and slightly less athletic version of Sam Griesel. Did I interpret your evaluation correctly?

What about a guy already on the roster. How does Cale Jacobson compare to Sam H? Cale is listed at 6'4" and is purportedly very strong. Can Cale play PG? If so, he would be a good sized PG and even decent size 2G. I don't follow HS BB, so I don't know anything about these guys, but Cale is definitely taller than Sam H. Is Cale a better athlete? Better shooter? How is his basketball IQ? On the other hand, what are his limitations?

The crowd went absolutely nuts when Keisei was announced in starting lineups before the game. He has become a state sensation. Every time he touches the ball the crowd oohs and awes. Griesel recently said that everybody he knows wants a Tominaga jersey--and then he added that he also wants a Tominaga jersey

Congratulations to those who picked Keisei.

Last game vs. Maryland, NU shot 53% FG and 43% on 3s, while Maryland shot 45% FG and 35% on 3s, yet NU lost by 19 points. The contributing factors were: 1. Turnovers (NU-15; MD-10) 2. Offensive Rebounds (NU-4; MD-11) 3. Free Throws (NU 9-15; MD 24-26) Maryland plays 2 bigs that aren't great 3 point shooters. Julian Reese is 63% on FG, but hasn't made a 3 all year. Donta Scott is 40% FG and 30% on 3s. Seems like this might be a game to bring back the twin towers of Keita and Walker. This would help even out the rebounding, and it might help limit the fouls because the NU perimeter players would know they have help in the middle if their guy gets by them so they don't have to hold them or hack them at the rim. The question for Fred is whether he wants to muck up the game and try to out muscle them with our bigs, or whether he wants to see if the offensive explosion with the smaller team can keep up its recent trend.

Tominaga making the NBA is definitely a long shot. But, it just might be worth his effort to return his senior season to try and make it happen. If one is looking for a possible comparison in the NBA, then it is not Steph Curry, but his brother Seth Curry, who might give Keisei hope that he could make it. Seth is listed as 6'1" and 185 lbs. For those who have watched Seth play, you know he is not particularly athletic or explosive. He is a big liability on defense. Yet, he has carved out a very nice niche in the NBA and gets meaningful minutes on playoff level teams (Dallas, Philly, NETS). Seth also plays the 2 guard, which is what Keisei would probably play if he could make the NBA. Keisei is listed (generously) at 6'2" and 175 lbs. He certainly could get stronger and possibly get his weight up to 180+ lbs. In college, Seth played his freshman year at Liberty and averaged 20 points per game on 45% FG and 35% from 3. He then transferred to Duke and RS a year. Following his RS, his stats were: Soph - 9 points/game on 42% FG and 43% on 3s Jr. - 13 points/game on 42% FG and 38% on 3s Sr. -17.5 points/game on 47% FG and 44% on 3s Seth's Career Average = 15 points/game on 43% FG and 39% on 3s Keisei is currently averaging 12.4 points per game on 50% FG and 41% on 3s (23 minutes per game) In just Big 10 play, Keisei is averaging 13.7 points/game on 51% FG and 42% on 3s (25.7 minutes per game)

Can Hoiberg use Keisei's success this year as a selling point to Friedrichsen? Keisei has had free rein to shoot whenever open this year, and is getting a lot of national publicity from it. One would think this would be appealing to PF.

I haven't watched any of Sallis at Gonzaga, so I have no idea of his current skill set. If you could choose just one player to transfer to NU next year, would you choose Sallis or Hepburn?

The NET rankings are a joke. Check out Iona (#69) and Yale (#70). Iona: Quad 1 (0-2) Quad 2 (0-2) Quad 3 (9-2) Quad 4 (9-2) Yale: Quad 1 (0-2) Quad 2 (1-2) Quad 3 (5-0) Quad 4 (9-2) Nebraska (#94): Quad 1 (2-11) Quad 2 (3-3) Quad 3 (1-0) Quad 4 (7-0)

Eat that Ken and your lame-a$$ algo!

What the heck does "functioning well" mean? This could simply mean its exists and pays out "some" money to some players, doesn't say anything to the comparative level of the amounts it is paying out. Have no idea what it means to "work with the 1890 Group" either.

Actually this season, even with all the devastating injuries, is not too far off from an "average" Miles' season. Miles' average end-of-year KenPom is #87. NU is currently #98 and was in the low-to-mid 80s before the injuries. This is why things like strength of schedule matter. Simply looking at wins/losses is not telling the full picture. This year's team is better than 3 of Miles' teams: 2013 KenPom #136 2015 KemPom #121 2017 KenPom #107. And believe it or not, based on these rankings, Fred's 2021 team (KenPom #109) was better than 2 of Miles' teams. Of course, Miles had 2014 (#56) and 2018 (#55), which are significantly better than any of Fred's rankings. But if there was to be improvement next year, it would likely put Nebraska with at least an equal if not better KenPom ranking than the "average" Miles team.

The three seniors will be a big loss. But it seems most teams in the B1G are starting A LOT of seniors. If anyone wants to take the time, I would be interested in the number of seniors in each teams starting 5. Seems like the portal has a lot to do with this, as a lot of teams are bringing in junior/senior transfers and then putting them in the starting lineup. If so, then most teams are in the same boat in losing their starters. It also seems like the super seniors (who received the extra covid years) are finally starting to graduate out of the system. This should help level the playing field a little bit. But yes, Fred (if he returns) still has to bring in the dudes from the portal. It will all come down to who he can get to transfer here next year.

Walker is a human turnover.

I have no idea how the NET is calculated, but seems that that the loss to St. Johns is the big drag on our NET. Our losses this season are to NET ranked teams as follows: 4 4 21 22 26 26 28 45 47 53 57 61 - Oklahoma 98 - St. Johns Our wins include: 16 - Creighton (on the road) 33 - Iowa 36 - OSU Every B1G opponent other than Minnesota has been ranked #57 (Northwestern) or higher.

https://omaha.com/sports/huskers/shatel/shatel-as-calendar-shifts-to-february-eyes-arent-on-hoiberg-theyre-on-nebraskas-ceo/article_d5f28759-0654-5320-a7e8-4736074bce40.html I am not not usually one to refer to Shatel and Husker Hoops in the same sentence. This is the same guy who said Creighton would have to go 10 deep before reaching the level of Nebraska's best player. But, in this case, and in this article, I feel he has some decent points. The gist is that the remainder this season isn't about whether NU can squeak out a few wins against B1G bottom dwellers, or even whether or not to retain Hoiberg. Rather, the bigger issue is for Trev to step up and show his administration truly supports the hoops program and not just the football program. He has two suggestions: 1. Hire an associate AD to focus solely on hoops 2. Make sure the NIL support is top notch Hiring a hoops Assoc. AD makes sense. Trev is naturally going to lean towards the football program, so bring in a guy who really understands hoops and can devote all his/her attention to hoops. Sounds good. Let's do it. But IMO, of more importance, is suggestion #2. NIL is critical. I mentioned this in one of my earlier posts when discussing whether to bring back Fred. If NIL isn't active, prominent and nationally competitive for hoops, then it doesn't matter who the coach is. And if it isn't prominent and available right now, then Trev is leaving Fred out to dry. There is no way Hoiberg is going to be able to recruit the caliber of recruit/transfers we need if NIL isn't a huge factor. Has everyone noticed how many of the new football recruits are signing contracts with the 1890 Collective, along with many of the returning players. 1890 has openly stated that it is only signing football and volleyball. I believe there was another collective to handle basketball last year, but I have no idea whether it is still active, or how well funded it is. Of course Trev can't arrange for the players to be paid directly from the athletic department, but he can--and if he truly wants hoops to succeed he MUST--use his position and clout to meet with large donors and the hoops collective to make sure it is well funded and active and thriving. Yet, all we hear is crickets. . . . Is this the plan-- to just starve out Fred and let him die on the vine? Or is there true backing and support to help him try to get the big time recruits he needs to turn this program around. Again, I don't have any inside info, I don't know for sure, but Shatel (who I imagine is somewhat connected) says that Nebraska falls well behind Creighton in the hoops NIL support. If true, then this is inexcusable. Many on here say that the AD left Miles to out to dry by not extending his contract. Well, in today's era of NIL, if a coach doesn't have considerable NIL support, then this is more deadly than a lack of a contract extension. It's the nail in the coffin. How could Nebraska possibly expect to out-recruit other blue blood programs who have much more history and success and who also have consider more money to throw at those recruits? Once again, it is time for this athletic department and AD to step up and show/prove how it is supporting husker hoops . For some of us, football isn't the only game in town. Hopefully the AD feels the same way.

Blocking out is now officially a foul—only on Nebraska of course.

If this team could just figure out who should be shooting the ball and who shouldn’t it could have a chance and quit turning it over.

Walker now has five turnovers already

Walker is a human turnover

Tang is such an ironic example. Is he an elite coach, or is he the benefactor of an administration that allowed him to sign Keontae Johnson? And even if he proves over time he is 100% the real deal, for every Tang there are 20 Doc Sadlers (good but not elite). Coaching at Nebraska is really, really, really hard. We have no tradition, so recruits don't want to come here. The only way to overcome that stigma is to win a lot of games. But it is very hard to win a lot of games without first getting the good recruits. It is a death spiral. With that said, obviously the right coach can overcome the death spiral. As tcp points out, the elite coaches of the past have brought programs out of the ashes. It certainly can be done, but there are a LOT of coaches in college basketball history, but very, very few Coach Ks or Coach Orrs. Fred at least took a P5 program that had been struggling for years (even though it had some past history of success) and massively turned it around. It is interesting to note that Fred's successor, Steve Prohm, managed to continue the success for his first 2 years (how much of this was carry-over from Fred's players and Fred's coaching of those players?), but in Prohm's 3rd -6th years, his conference records were: 4-14; 9-9; 5-13; 0-18 (combined 18-54). Many on this board think Fred's calm demeanor on the sideline means he doesn't care. I strongly disagree. Fred is an ordinary athlete who was a star in college and had a long NBA career. He didn't reach his levels of success by being disinterested. He is a fierce competitor, and I think he has been humbled over these first 3 years at NU, and I am counting on his competitive spirit to drive him to do whatever is necessary to improve this program. There is one other factor that is huge in all of this, but none of us are talking about--NIL. I don't know the status of NIL for the basketball team right now. Obviously there is some NIL going on, because we have heard stories of Walker and other players. But how strong is the NIL program for Husker Hoops athletes and recruits? I do know that the 1890 Collective (which is signing a lot of the football recruits) only serves football and volleyball. I believe there is a different collective for the basketball team, but I never hear about it and have no idea if it is still going or how strong it is. If the hoops NIL collective is not active and strong, then all of this coach talk is meaningless. Nebraska has too many obstacles to overcome already. It must have an NIL program that at least meets, if not exceeds, it peers. If it does not, then it doesn't matter who the coach is, this program will not succeed.