NUdiehard

+1000

At the start of the season, if someone said Huskers would be 7-1 after 8 games, most would likely have taken that. Not great, because we would know the loss was most likely to Creighton, but at least the Huskers took care of business in all the other games. If it was also known that Huskers would win comfortably and beat the spread on most games, that would be a bonus. With that said, we have now seen enough of this team and the players to get a good feel for what we have and don't have, areas of surprise (in a good way) and areas of concern. This is my general "state of the team" overview at this stage of the season, feel free to comment or disagree. 1. This team is not as deep as we all hoped/thought coming into the season. We have 6 legit rotation players (Keisei, JL, Williams, Allick, Mast and Gary). After that it drops off pretty fast. Unless CJ is hitting 40+% on his 3s, it is hard to justify his playing time. He is small, slow and really struggles on defense. Sam H plays incredibly hard and is scrappy on defense, but he is also small and limited offensively. Scrappiness only take you so far in the B1G. But so far, the biggest dropoff has been Boogie. He is playing decent minutes and averaging a whopping 2.5 pts/game, at 19%FG and 13% (2-15) on 3s, while on defense he is S-L-O-W. 2. Time for the time/rotation to shorten/change. CJ, Sam and Boogie's minutes all must decrease, and based on their play, at least one of them should be completely out of the rotation (as of now, that would be Boogie IMO). On the flip side, time to give Rice some rotation minutes and see what he can do. If Eli shows he can be a solid contributor, this will likely come at CJ's expense (unless CJ suddenly gets on fire from 3, which he is capable) 3. This is not last year's team (at least not yet). There is some selfish play, and dare I say there may even be some tension/hostility between certain players. I thought maybe I was just reading too much into things, but based on other peoples posts, others have observed some of it as well. 4. Keisei is still the most potent offensive weapon on this team. And it appears that some players on the team resent this fact. This must end. The primary goal should be to get Keisei as many good/open looks as possible. Keisei should not be having to do constant step-back's to get open, nor should he have to constantly create shots off the dribble. Last year, his teammates ran sets and set picks to get him open looks, time for this year's teammates to do the same. 5. Everyone loves Allick and his effort, but he is what he is. The experiment of having his shoot multiple 3s each game has to end. And frankly, he should never be the offensive focal point, whether inside or outside. Have others noticed he has a bit of "butter" hands? He rarely catches the ball cleanly, whether by pass or rebound. Too much risk going into him too often, only when he is wide open and has a clear advantage. 6. JL deserves considerable praise for all his work in converting to PG, and overall, he has been pretty solid in that role. But why oh why did his conversion to PG result in him forgetting how to shoot? Man, what an unfortunate tangent He's playing massive minutes yet averaging only 4 points per game on 32% FG and 20% on 3s (5-25). 7. Many people believe today's modern college basketball is largely guard-oriented. Our 3 primary guards (JL, Sam and Boogie) are averaging 4.0, 2.5 and 2.4 points per game, and 2 of those 3 (JL and Boogie) on atrocious shooting percentage. This just isn't going to get it done. Creighton wasn't even guarding JL at the 3. Same with Boogie. This results in a clogged paint, or more emphasis on Keisei, making things significantly more difficult for all the other players. 8. Right now, the only players on this team who I feel confident shooting a 3 are Keisei, Williams, Mast and Sam. If Rice was playing, I would probably add him to the list. I really want to add CJ, but man he just is so inconsistent. We wanted to believe we could play 5 out, but we can't. It is not reality at this time. 8. Wrong players shooting the wrong shots. There have been too many games in which Gary, or Allick or Boogie shot more 3s than Keisei or Williams. Last game, Allick and Gary combined for more 3s (6) than Keisei and Williams combined. And McDermott laughed all the way to a 30 point victory. I realize the defensive emphasis was on Keisei and Williams, but this goes back to the team running an offense as team designed to get the best shooters the best shots. 9. Overall, this team is slow and rather unathletic. Even against teams like Duquesne, this was evident. Which means we have to beat teams with skill, teamwork and shooting. So far, the shooting has been a let down, but some of this is because they still are not playing 100% as a team. 10. Before the season I stated I was curious about Williams because I had never seen him play. His stats seemed solid, yet he wasn't a starter at Charlotte. So far, I still am curious. What is he? He definitely has been "solid". But can he be bettter? Once again, his stats are excellent (14.6 pts/game on 45/42/90). But does he have a killer instinct. Can he take his game to the next level in the big games (had only 6 points vs. Creighton). Many call him "mature", "disciplined", etc. I hope it is all these "positive" attributes, but it is hard to know based on his demeanor. He also is the player that seems to have an issue with Keisei. 11. Time for Fred to start playing the top 6 more minutes per game. He is treating the players like they are made of glass. Keisei is being subbed out within the first 5 minutes of the game. No players are playing more than 28-30 minutes? Versus Creighton, Williams only played 21 minutes and Keisei only 25. I realize it was a blowout, but in contrast, Creighton had players playing 33, 33, 32, 28, 28 minutes. Nebraska only had one player with more than 28 minutes (JL with 29). 12. The rebounding in the last 3 games has been a massive disappointment. Is this a bad fluke, or is it the reality of this team. Some of this goes back to the lack of athleticism of the players, but some of it is because of lack of block outs, positioning, and just flat out fighting for rebounds. Can they get the rebounding mojo back, or will they continue to get dominated by the bigger and more athletic teams in the B1G?

Incredible effort by the team. Fun to watch. A few quick thoughts: 1. Williams really showed what he can be for this team. Great game and effort. He even had some tough offensive rebounds and put-backs in heavy traffic. Wasn't sure he had that in him, still not sure he can do it consistently, but it was nice to see. 2. Rienk is so steady and reliable. Keep it up big fella 3. Gary continues to be a beast on the boards and at the rim. Don't really love him shooting so many threes each game tho. One or two is okay if he is wide open, but it not, please move the ball and try to find an open look for a better shooter like Keisei 4. Speaking of Keisei, he played a very controlled game, didn't try to do too much. With that said, I still feel this team does not work hard enough to get him good looks and at times almost seems to avoid passing him the ball. This team is a better scoring team, and Keisei doesn't have to carry as much of a load as late last season, but he still is our best shooter and he should be shooting at least 5 threes per game, and sometimes much more. There is absolutely no reason Juan Gary should be shooting more 3s than Keisei 5. Still don't like that bench lineup of Boogie, Sam, CJ, Gary and Allick. Yes, I acknowledge they provided a little spark in the first half. But most of that was on defense, and other than Sam's 3 ball and circus layup, they still struggled to score. And for the second game in a row, in the 2nd half, the starters came out gang-busters and built a nice cushion, and then that bench lineup quickly gave it all back. That bench lineup really, really struggles to score, and if another team gets hot while it is on the floor, the game could be over before the starters get back in the game. 6. Allick provides incredible energy and effort. But if the game is on the line, I want Gary in the game at PF. In a close game, the "end of game" lineup should be: JL, Keisei, Brice, Gary, Mast. 7. Can someone post the box score with the player's +/- again?

It is December 3, 2023, NU and Creighton are tied 61-61 with 6 minutes remaining, who you do want on the court for the last 6 minutes (you cannot sub during this stretch)?

As the schedule become more challenging, Fred is gong to have to shorten his bench. In the second half, the starters came out and quickly extended the lead to something like 16 points. But then the subs came in and lost it just as quickly. I have been a big supporter of Sam H., but I simply don't see the need or value in playing both Sam and Boogie, let along both of them together. One of them should be the backup PG, and whoever loses that battle should not play against good teams. Gary was a beast, and he showed why he should be starting and finishing over Allick at PF. Mast is showing he can be an very good passer/facilitator, much like Walker. It will be fun watching him continue to develop that chemistry and timing with Keisei and others as the season progresses. There is a dropoff when Reink goes out and Allick goes to center. Allick is not a rim protector and does not have Reink's size to body up down low. Allick also is not as skilled an offensive player or passer. I hope Reink is in excellent shape because his minutes are going to be critical this season. The missed layups/bunnies are going to be a continuing frustration this season. The reality is that guys like JL and Brice are the players who are best at getting to the rim, but simply are not good/great finishers at the rim, especially through traffic/contact. On the positive side, Brice is very good at getting the foul called on contact. There are so many times it feels like he is getting bailed out because if he didn't get fouled, I doubt he would convert the shot. It will be interesting to see if B1G teams scout this and try not to foul him as much in the paint. JL has been serviceable at PG, but not great, and he still has not found his shot. It would be real nice to see him drain 3 or 4 threes in a game just to get his confidence up. Still seems like there is a bit of selfish play going on. Late in the 2nd half there was a stretch of about 5 minutes where it seemed Keisei did not receive a single touch, almost as if his teammates were intentionally not passing to him because they thought he would shoot it. I am just speculating of course, and maybe I am reading something into nothing, but I just feel that when Keisei is on the court, he should be involved in the offense in at least some manner almost every time down the court. He is still the best offensive weapon, and the other players need to accept that.

Fair enough. I was looking at his shooting percentage of 3-9, but you are right, must factor in free throws and 3s. With that said, I have always felt it is a bit misleading to not count free throws as some form of a "shot attempt". To me, saying he had 15 points on 9 shot attempts is technically correct, but does not factor in that when he shot those free throws, it was the same as shooting a FG attempt (especially if he was fouled shooting a shot). Thus, his "true" shooting percentage was more like 6-12, meaning he had 15 points on 12 shots, which yes, is still quite efficient, but not quite the same as 15 points on 9 shots.

It was nice to see Williams start to get into a rhythm even if he was inefficient. We are going to need him, he just needs to figure out how to get his shots within the flow of the offense rather than forcing them. He did have 3 wide-open corner 3s to start the game. Hit the first one and missed the next 2, but those are good quality shots. After that he began forcing things a bit. Mast was a stud last night. Of course we have to see how that will translate to B1G play, but I am all for him shooting 3-5 threes at the top of key to open up the paint. Rice is quite impressive when he is hitting his shots as he was last night. Still gets lost and struggles on the defensive end, which is why he will be in the back of the rotation, but man he showed what he can develop into. He could develop into a bigger, more powerful and explosive version of Williams IMO, which is a very solid player that any team would love to have. CJ seems to have more confidence this year, he just needs to see the ball go through the hoop a few times and he could be on his way to a good season. With that said, the lack of PG problem is already rearing its ugly head. The backcourt of JL, SH and Boogie combined for: 63 minutes 12 points (4-12 FG) 8 Assists 9 TOs This is not going to cut it. Obviously Keisei will improve those numbers, but he is a SG, not a PG. JL has not come close to finding his shot or his rhythm so far this year. There are a lot of games left, but the transition to PG is rough so far (4 turnovers in 24 minutes). SH came back to earth this game, and Boogie does some nice things, but also does a lot of head-scratching things (3 turnovers in 17 minutes).

Even with everyone healthy, SH could crack the top 8 Starters: 1. Lawrence 2. Keisei 3. Williams 4. Gary 5. Mast Bench: 6. Allick 7. CJ 8 . Hoiberg 9. Boogie 10. Rice Until my eyes tell me otherwise, I am perfectly comfortable with Sam taking minutes over Boogie. Sam is small, but a much better athlete than most think (IMO he is FAR quicker than Cale for instance, and he is definitely quicker/faster than Boogie). Sam also THINKS the game at a very high level, and as long as he is not completely over-sized, he is a very good defender and creates havoc on that end. I could even see him occasionally getting some of JL's minutes in a pinch, because Sam is probably more of a natural PG than anyone on the team right now.

Is this injury the same injury that caused Mast to miss the intra-squad scrimmage two weeks ago in which he appeared to be in a boot? BTW, the lack of journalism/reporting on this Nebraska team this pre-season is stark. For example, I just listened to a podcast with Robin Washut that aired yesterday, and Robin talked about how good it was going to be for Fred to have the entire roster available to "tinker" with lineups. He obviously had no clue about any of these situations, nor seemingly has any other reporter/journalist. There has been almost no pre-season coverage in print or media. Can you imagine if the football team had 40+ players injured or otherwise unavailable in preseason camp, there would be non-stop coverage and discussion. Husker Hoops continues to be a total and complete afterthought in this state.

I seriously doubt there is a single other team that currently has 6 scholarship players unavailable. Only at Nebraska is that possible.

Hard to do when I’ve never seen him play— hence why I said “I’m really looking forward to watching him play”

My projected starting lineup: 1. Lawrence 2. Keisei 3. Williams 4. Gary 5. Mast The only question mark is Gary vs. Allick. They seem to be very similar players. Allick has a bit more size, Gary may have a bit more athleticism. The main reason I give the nod to Gary is because Allick is clearly the backup center so he has to stagger his minutes with Mast. First off the bench: 6. Allick 7. CJ 8. Coleman I know CJ had a rough year last year (and was brutal the first half of the season), but he still is probably the 2nd best pure shooter on the team behind Keisei. Fred said he's been shooting lights out in practice, can it carry over to games this year? He shot over 40% from 3 in the B1G as a freshman, so he has proven he can do it. Hoping and maybe even expecting that he can do it again. Allick will have to play big. Not sure he is ideal as a center (at just 6'8") in the B1G, but I don't see any indication Keita is coming back any time soon and Diop is just a raw freshman no matter how athletic. Rice and Diop will have opportunities. I get the sense Hoiberg really like Rice, it's just a question of whether he can learn the system and be consistent enough. As for Diop, he will be fun to watch. We all know he is raw, the question is just how raw. Last, the constant nagging injuries are annoying. I realize they said Mast and Gary are not serious, but still. During the scrimmage last Saturday we had 4 scholarship players out with injury. Is this common? If we surveyed every team in the country, how many would have 4 or more scholarship players injured at one time? And is a foot/ankle injury on a big guy ever really "non-serious"? Keita anyone? Are either/both of them going to play in the exhibition this Sunday? Are they even back to practicing now? Fortunately we start out with an easy schedule, but Mast is brand new to the team and needs all the practice and playing time with this new team he can get. He can't be expected to sit on the sidelines and then just show up for the Creighton game. Every rep, every game counts to build chemistry and continuity.

If he beats out Boogie, that would be disappointing. If he beats out Williams, that would be devastating. Williams is the both the wildcard and the X-factor. I am really looking forward to watching him play and see for myself, because right now he is an enigma to me. His stats are great, his size for a wing is ideal, everybody speaks highly of him. But then why did he not even start at Charlotte last year? I realize its not who starts its who finishes, but 99% of the time the best players still start. He had a really good first game in Spain, then seemed to disappear a bit (not that we should make anything much from that trip, but still). From the very little we learned from the scrimmage against Utah (where is the investigative reporting--Washut? Padilla? Somebody?), Williams was not even mentioned. Again, just one game (and a scrimmage at that), but is he supposed to be a top 1 or 2 player, or a role player? If he is just a role player, is that enough to get us to where we want to go?

If Cale plays will that mean something bad has happened?

Ulis is only a Junior. It is possible he could be suspended all of this year, but still be eligible next year, which could be important since Boogie will be graduating. Plus, Ulis is significant asset to have on the scout team to play against the starters. Fred said he is a good kid and has been a joy to coach so far. Hard to find any reason to dismiss him at this time.

Agreed. Talent is essential. Experienced talent is better.

Yep

Coleman is a very nice pick up, especially this late in the off-season. He certainly has the potential to be even better than Ulis. I don't see the log jam at 2-3. Coleman, Keisei and Lawrence are all 1-2, not 3s. None of them are natural PGs, but they are closer to PGs than SF. Most likely, Coleman will be the starting PG (assuming Ulis is ineligible). Keisei and Lawrence will play the 2, and Lawrence will probably be the backup PG. So this means we have 3 primary players for those two spots, so not a log jam there. I'm curious who you think are 3s. IMO, the only experienced 3s on the team are CJ and Williams. Eli is probably a natural 3, but he is a true freshman. Ramel could play the 3, but considering his alleged shooting struggles, he probably will be battling for some minutes at the PG/SG spot, if any. Regarding who "needs the ball", I hope that Coleman doesn't need the ball to shoot a lot. Overall, he is an inefficient shooter at just 37% overall FG%. He is a decent 3 point shooter, but only shot 30% when playing at Missouri in power 5 conference. He scored a lot at Ball State, but, well, that was Ball State. So I would hope that he will be more of a facilitator at NU with some timely spot up 3s or drives. No more off-the-dribbles 2 pt jump shots. Thing I like most about Coleman is his size. If he can play PG at 6'5", he could guard opposing team 2 or 3, allowing him to play with both Keisei and Lawrence at same time if the situation calls for it. This probably wouldn't be possible if Ulis was PG. This would be especially important if either CJ or Williams should get injured for any period of time. It just adds more versatility.

Ummm, I was responding to Norm who asked us to project the point guard position for the season. But you may be right, maybe Fred chooses to start Mast at PG, might be worth a shot.

Maybe. It will be interesting to see who gets more rotation minutes between Cale and Ramel. In many ways they are similar players. Both are versatile guards who can play on or off the ball. Ramel is a bit taller (6'6" vs. 6'4"), but Cale is stronger. Doubt there is room for both of them in the rotation.

Excellent work, appreciate the write up. In watching the highlights you attached, I noticed that most all of the 3s that Gary made were from the corner. Do you have stats on what percentage of his 3 point shots were from the corner, and what percentage he shot on 3s from the corner as opposed to the wing or top of the key?

As of right now, just listening to Fred and reading the tea leaves: 1. Ulis 2. Lawrence 3. Sam H 4. Cale 5. Ramel (Fred said he will play a lot "in Spain". Hope this changes and Ramel moves up to 2 or 3 by end of season, but not really expecting it at this point.

We only have 11 scholarship players, but we have 2 quality walkons who are point guards. Along with everyone else, I am hoping Ramel will be the player we all hope/expect him to be. In particular, I am hoping he can be a tall (6'6") PG because that would open up opportunities to play Lawrence and Keisei together at the SG/wing. But, I was not and am not planning on it for this season. The main reason for my doubt is simply from listening to Fred whenever he talks about the roster. He rarely mentions Ramel and when he does it usually only is only about him "gaining strength." But even more specific, in his last interview a couple of months ago, Fred was specifically asked about the PG position and he listed about 3 players, which included Sam Hoiberg, and did not include Lloyd. That told me all I needed to know as to the PG position coming into this season. As alluded to above, the problem with our guard situation is that we have too many quality "small" guards. Lawrence and Keisei are two of our best players. But neither are true PGs, and we cannot play both of them along with Ulis who is only 6'3" because of defensive limitations. If Ulis is our starting PG, then most likely Lawrence will be coming off the bench. And if Sam Hoiberg is the backup PG, this makes us even smaller, and does not alleviate the problem of playing Lawrence and Keisei together. My guess is that Lawrence the backup PG, a role he can perform, but is not really his strength. A lot can change between now and the start of the season, but my current projected starting lineup: PG - Ulis SG - Keisei SF - Williams PF - Gary C - Mast Gary will have to battle Allick for that starting PF position, and really could go either way. Wilcher will backup Williams, and Lawrence will backup Ulis and Keisei.

I agree That does sound crazy