throwback

NCAA RPI rankings thru Feb 24: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi BIG TEN 5. Wisconsin (+1 spots from last week) 13. Michigan (+3) - L, L 17. Ohio State (-2) - L, W 19. Michigan State (-1) - W 28. Iowa (-4) - L 46. Minnesota (-13) - W 48. Nebraska (+5) 85. Illinois (+6) - W 97. Indiana (+5) - W 116. Northwestern (-12) - W 119. Penn State (-7) - L, W 121. Purdue (-13) - L, W Non-Conference 7. Creighton (+1) - L 15. UMass (+4) - L 21. Cincinnati (-7) - L 89. Georgia (-1) - W 125. Miami (-9) - W 136. UAB (+29) - L 141. Florida Gulf Coast (+14) - W 169. Arkansas State (+4) - W 216. Northern Illinois (-7) - W 285. Western Illinois (-11) - W 331. South Carolina State (-4) - W 348. The Citadel (E) - W NU vs Top 25: 2-6 NU vs Top 50: 3-7 NU vs Top 100: 6-7 NU vs Top 150: 11-10 NU vs 25-50: 1-1 NU vs 25-75: 1-1 NU vs 25-100: 4-1 NU vs 50-100: 3-0 NU vs 50-150: 8-3 NU vs 101-200: 6-3 NU vs 150+: 5-0 NU vs 200+: 4-0

Perfect!

Neb 59 Ill 55

This is a really good point - it's not just a defensive style designed to try to force the other team to take tough shots. It's a style that does that, but if you take the ball in the lane, it's also designed to try to force turnovers and transition baskets going the other way. It's been a long time since we've had a team that scores as much in transition as this one is doing during this stretch, and that defensive style is responsible.

That would be unbelievable! Could you imagine the atmosphere in PBA? To make it happen, we're probably going to have to keep winning though. Wisky's closing schedule is quite a bit softer than ours. It'd take a pretty significant upset from a bottom-feeder to hand Wisky a loss before they come to Lincoln, so hopefully we can match them by going 3-0 the next week and a half.

I believe it said in the World-Herald recently that NU has had only two sophomores named all-league first team since WWII - Fort and Hoppen. Petteway is definitely deserving to become the third such player - however it probably comes down to whether NU is able to continue to win enough to keep him in the conversation. So far, so good. Also this from the OWH before today's game: http://www.omaha.com/article/20140222/HUSKERS/140229472/1002#nebraska-s-defense-now-a-difference-maker

The way it's probably going to shake out, we'll likely end up with a first-round opponent for the third time, whether it's Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, N'western or Penn St. That said you're right in that we could end up playing a team we split with rather than one we (potentially) swept.

And I think Miles is something like 23-10-1 ATS in all B1G games. Las Vegas is slow on joining the Coach Miles bandwagon.

I have to say this team's defensive turnaround may very well be the most amazing in-season turnaround in a particular aspect of the team I've ever witnessed in NU hoops. Their understanding of defensive rotations, on-ball defense, and help defense now versus what was happening during the non-con and early portion of the conference season is simply unbelievable, not to mention the improvement in effort and GATA on that end of the floor. After watching what was going on early in the season, I would have never guessed this team could play this type of defense this season, and I'm convinced this defensive success is the reason NU is on this win streak. I've been trying to come up with some similar area of improvement that occurred within a past season, but I've been unsuccessful. Any comparative turnarounds anyone else can think of?

What a difference a year makes - remember this quote from Miles after last season's NU-Purdue game at the Bob? No need to call timeout this season as a motivational tool to ask the guys to watch the fans leaving because of a lopsided loss. Calling timeout to make sure the walk-ons get into a blowout win is much more enjoyable. http://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/mens-basketball/husker-rally-does-little-to-satisfy-miles-after-loss/article_30f25eb6-4a7d-5ca6-b3ee-eddf044ffbb6.html

I see Petteway will be featured on this week's "The Journey" - numerous BTN broadcasts throughout the week. Great show, and it will be that much better this week.

'nuff said.

Sunday 2/23's two results change the team on top of the B1G standings, but they don't really change the end of season bracket projections, as both game results went exactly as expected by RPI Forecast. NU looking very good for at least a #6 seed in B1G Tourney. To go higher, just need to keep winning & get a little help. EDIT: Update on 2/24 with latest info from RPI Forecast - some discrepancies now in the "expected Conf record" listed at the site versus what the projected margin of victory is in each game listed at the site. Both NU and PSU picked up a projected win in the expected conf record and Mich, OSU, and Wisky picked up a projected loss, but the margin of victory listings for each team doesn't reflect these changes. Also the makeup Iowa-Indiana game for Thursday is not listed at all, causing another discrepancy. So I listed the projected record based on the individual game margin of victory first followed by the expected conf record for the teams this discrepancy affects. Looks like the discrepancy occurs because the win probability percentage is high enough that an extra win is likely, even though the individual projected margin of victory doesn't reflect it. So in Nebraska's case, the site has us losing to Ill, Ind, and Wis in terms of projected margin of victory/loss, but because the combined win probability percentages for the three games are high enough (41%, 38%, and 30%), the probabilities show that NU should win one of those three games, hence the discrepancy. Gotta love statistics. So I'll just keep listing both numbers whenever a discrepancy occurs. Current standings through 2/23: 11-3 Michigan 11-4 Mich St 9-5 Wisconsin 8-5 Iowa 9-6 Ohio St 8-6 NEBRASKA 6-9 Minnesota 5-8 Indiana 5-9 Purdue 5-10 N’western 4-10 Illinois (2-0 vs PSU) 4-10 Penn St (0-2 vs Ill) Bracket if tourney “began today”: 11 AM - 9/Purdue vs 8/Indiana … Winner plays 1/Mich 1:30 PM - 12/Penn St vs 5/Ohio St … Winner plays 4/Iowa 5:30 PM - 10/N’western vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Mich St 8 PM - 11/Illinois vs 6/NEBRASKA … Winner plays 3/Wisconsin Projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com (as of 2/24): 15-3 / 14-4 Michigan 13-5 / 12-6 Wisconsin (1-0 vs MSU) 13-5 Mich St (0-1 vs Wis) 12-6 / 11-6 Iowa (1-1 vs OSU) … (1-1 vs Mich) 12-6 / 11-7 Ohio St (1-1 vs Iowa) … (0-1 vs Mich) 9-9 / 10-8 NEBRASKA 7-11 Minnesota 6-12 Purdue (2-1 vs NW/Ind) 6-12 N’western (2-2 vs Pur/Ind) 6-12 / 6-11 Indiana (1-2 vs Pur/NW) 5-13 Illinois 4-14 / 5-13 Penn St Bracket projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com: 11 AM - 9/N’western vs 8/Purdue … Winner plays 1/Michigan 1:30 PM - 12/Penn St vs 5/Ohio St … Winner plays 4/Iowa 5:30 PM - 10/Indiana vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Wisconsin 8 PM - 11/Illinois vs 6/NEBRASKA … Winner plays 3/Mich St Remaining games/tie-breaker options: ("W or L" is a game projected by RPIForecast as 7 pts or more margin, "close W or L" is projected as a 2.5 pt to 6.5 pt margin, "toss-up W or L" is projected as 1 pt or 2 pt margin) ILLINOIS 4-10 – projected 5-13 Possible seed range: 6 through 12 Projected seed: 11 Nebraska (close W) At Mich St (L) Michigan (close L) At Iowa (L) Favorable tiebreaker: Minn, PSU (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, MSU*, Iowa*, NW, Pur, Wis (0-2), OSU (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Mich* (0-0), Ind *Game remaining INDIANA 5-8 – projected 6-12 (6-11) Possible seed range: 3 through 12 Projected seed: 10 At Wisconsin (L) Iowa (close L) Ohio St (close L) Nebraska (close W) At Michigan (L) Favorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Wis* Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, Minn, Pur, MSU (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Iowa* (0-0), OSU* (0-0), Ill, PSU, NW *Game remaining IOWA 8-5 – projected 12-6 (11-6) Possible seed range: 1 through 11 Projected seed: 4 At Minnesota (close W) At Indiana (close W) Purdue (W) At Mich St (toss-up / L) Illinois (W) Favorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Ill*, Neb, PSU, NW (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, Wis (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Pur* (0-0), Ind* (0-0), Mich, OSU *Game remaining MICHIGAN 11-3 – projected 15-3 (14-4) Possible seed range: 1 through 6 Projected seed: 1 At Purdue (W) Minnesota (W) At Illinois (close W) Indiana (W) Favorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Pur*, NW, PSU, OSU, Neb (2-0), MSU (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind* Tied season series: Ill* (0-0), Iowa, Wis *Game remaining MICHIGAN STATE 11-4 – projected 13-5 Possible seed range: 1 through 6 Projected seed: 3 Illinois (W) Iowa (toss-up / W) At Ohio St (close L) Favorable tiebreaker: Iowa*, OSU*, Ill*, Minn, Pur, NW (2-0), Ind (2-0), PSU (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb, Wis, Mich (0-2) Tied season series: N/A *Game remaining MINNESOTA 6-9 – projected 7-11 Possible seed range: 3 through 12 Projected seed: 7 Iowa (close L) At Michigan (L) Penn St (W) Favorable tiebreaker: PSU*, Ind Unfavorable tiebreaker: Iowa*, Mich*, Neb, Ill, MSU Tied 1-1 season series: Wis, OSU, Pur, NW *Game remaining NEBRASKA 8-6 – projected 9-9 (10-8) Possible seed range: 1 through 10 Projected seed: 6 At Illinois (close L) N’western (W) At Indiana (close L) Wisconsin (close L) Favorable tiebreaker: NW*, Ind*, Ill*, MSU, Minn Unfavorable tiebreaker: Iowa, Mich (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Wis* (0-0), OSU, PSU, Pur *Game remaining NORTHWESTERN 5-10 – projected 6-12 Possible seed range: 6 through 12 Projected seed: 9 At Nebraska (L) Penn St (toss-up / W) At Purdue (close L) Favorable tiebreaker: Pur*, Ill Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, OSU, Mich, Iowa (0-2), MSU (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: PSU* (0-0), Wis, Minn, Ind *Game remaining OHIO STATE 9-6 – projected 12-6 (11-7) Possible seed range: 1 through 8 Projected seed: 5 At Penn St (W) At Indiana (close W) Michigan St (close W) Favorable tiebreaker: Wis, NW, Pur (2-0), Ill (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, PSU*, Mich Tied 1-1 season series: Ind* (0-0), Iowa, Neb, Minn *Game remaining PENN STATE 4-10 – projected 4-14 (5-13) Possible seed range: 6 through 12 Projected seed: 12 Ohio St (L) Wisconsin (L) At Northwestern (toss-up / L) At Minnesota (L) Favorable tiebreaker: OSU* Unfavorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Mich, Iowa, MSU (0-2), Ill (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Wis* (0-0), NW* (0-0), Neb, Pur, Ind *Game remaining PURDUE 5-9 – projected 6-12 Possible seed range: 6 through 12 Projected seed: 8 Michigan (L) At Iowa (L) At Wisconsin (L) Northwestern (close W) Favorable tiebreaker: Ind, Ill Unfavorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Wis*, NW*, MSU, OSU (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Iowa* (0-0), Minn, PSU, Neb *Game remaining WISCONSIN 9-5 – projected 13-5 (12-6) Possible seed range: 1 through 8 Projected seed: 2 Indiana (W) At Penn St (W) Purdue (W) At Nebraska (close W) Favorable tiebreaker: Pur*, MSU, Iowa (2-0), Ill (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind*, OSU Tied season series: Neb* (0-0), PSU* (0-0), Mich, Minn, NW *Game remaining

What was the URL of that site? http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb Thanks - I took it out of my bookmarks after we left the Big XII. I did some searching last night, but couldn't find it again. It's a great site/idea.

Neb 79 Pur 68

(projections updated in posts below) Sigh - I miss the days of the Big XII projection web site, where you could project every game and see a tournament bracket. I haven't found anything similar for the Big Ten unfortunately. So here's a poor replication of that, with the B1G tournament projections according to current standings and then RPIForecast.com. If RPI Forecast is to be believed, it appears Nebraska is almost certainly locked into the 6 seed. NU is projected to go 2-3 down the stretch and finish at 9-9. Although I think they'll do better than that, it looks like to catch any of the top five teams, NU would likely have to sweep its final 5 games to get to 12-6. Outside of MSU the top teams have pretty favorable schedules in the final 2 weeks. Even if NU gets to 11-7, it's still likely looking at the 6 seed, unless OSU would maybe lose its final game to MSU, and NU could then perhaps get to the 5 seed, if MSU wins the league. Or NU would need to beat Wisky and then have the Badgers suffer a major upset in one of their three remaining games, which likely would make NU the 5 seed. If somehow NU finishes with 5 more wins and ends up in a four-way tie with OSU, Iowa, and Wisky, NU could get as high as the 4 seed, but that requires a lot of games to fall correctly. Current standings through 2/22: 11-3 Mich St 10-3 Michigan 9-5 Wisconsin 8-5 Iowa 9-6 Ohio St 7-6 Nebraska 6-9 Minnesota 5-8 Purdue (1-0 vs Ind) 5-8 Indiana (0-1 vs Pur) 5-10 N’western 4-10 Illinois (2-0 vs PSU) 4-10 Penn St (0-2 vs Ill) Bracket if tourney “began today”: 11 AM - 9/Indiana vs 8/Purdue … Winner plays 1/Mich St 1:30 PM - 12/Penn St vs 5/Ohio St … Winner plays 4/Iowa 5:30 PM - 10/N’western vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Michigan 8 PM - 11/Illinois vs 6/NEBRASKA … Winner plays 3/Wisconsin Projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com: 15-3 Michigan 13-5 Wisconsin (1-0 vs MSU) 13-5 Mich St (0-1 vs Wis) 12-6 Iowa (1-1 vs OSU) … (1-1 vs Mich) 12-6 Ohio St (1-1 vs Iowa) … (0-1 vs Mich) 9-9 Nebraska 7-11 Minnesota 6-12 Purdue (2-1 vs NW/Ind) 6-12 N’western (2-2 vs Pur/Ind) 6-12 Indiana (1-2 vs Pur/NW) 5-13 Illinois 4-14 Penn St Bracket projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com: 11 AM - 9/N’western vs 8/Purdue … Winner plays 1/Michigan 1:30 PM - 12/Penn St vs 5/Ohio St … Winner plays 4/Iowa 5:30 PM - 10/Indiana vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Wisconsin 8 PM - 11/Illinois vs 6/NEBRASKA … Winner plays 3/Mich St Remaining games/tie-breaker options: ("W or L" is a game projected by RPIForecast as 7 pts or more margin, "close W or L" is projected as a 2.5 pt to 6.5 pt margin, "toss-up W or L" is projected as 1 pt or 2 pt margin) PENN STATE – projected 4-14Ohio St (L) Wisconsin (L) At Northwestern (toss-up / L) At Minnesota (L) Favorable tiebreaker: OSU* Unfavorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Mich, Iowa, MSU (0-2), Ill (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Wis* (0-0), NW* (0-0), Neb, Pur, Ind *Game remaining: ILLINOIS – projected 5-13Nebraska (close W) At Mich St (L) Michigan (close L) At Iowa (L) Favorable tiebreaker: Minn, PSU (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, MSU*, Iowa*, NW, Pur, Wis (0-2), OSU (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Mich* (0-0), Ind *Game remaining: INDIANA – projected 6-12At Wisconsin (L) Ohio St (close L) Nebraska (close W) At Michigan (L) Iowa (close L) Favorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Wis* Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, Minn, Pur, MSU (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Iowa* (0-0), OSU* (0-0), Ill, PSU, NW *Game remaining: NORTHWESTERN – projected 6-12At Nebraska (L) Penn St (toss-up / W) At Purdue (close L) Favorable tiebreaker: Pur*, Ill Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, OSU, Mich, Iowa (0-2), MSU (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: PSU* (0-0), Wis, Minn, Ind *Game remaining: PURDUE – projected 6-12At Nebraska (close L) Michigan (L) At Iowa (L) At Wisconsin (L) Northwestern (close W) Favorable tiebreaker: Neb*, Ind, Ill Unfavorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Wis*, NW*, MSU, OSU (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Iowa* (0-0), Minn, PSU *Game remaining: MINNESOTA – projected 7-11Iowa (close L) At Michigan (L) Penn St (W) Favorable tiebreaker: PSU*, Ind Unfavorable tiebreaker: Iowa*, Mich*, Neb, Ill, MSU Tied 1-1 season series: Wis, OSU, Pur, NW *Game remaining: NEBRASKA – projected 9-9Purdue (close W) At Illinois (close L) N’western (W) At Indiana (close L) Wisconsin (close L) Favorable tiebreaker: NW*, Ind*, Ill*, MSU, Minn Unfavorable tiebreaker: Iowa, Pur*, Mich (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Wis* (0-0), OSU, PSU *Game remaining: OHIO STATE – projected 12-6At Penn St (W) At Indiana (close W) Michigan St (close W) Favorable tiebreaker: Wis, NW, Pur (2-0), Ill (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, PSU*, Mich Tied 1-1 season series: Ind* (0-0), Iowa, Neb, Minn *Game remaining: IOWA – projected 12-6At Minnesota (close W) Purdue (W) At Mich St (toss-up / L) Illinois (W) At Indiana (close W) Favorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Ill*, Neb, PSU, NW (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, Wis (0-2) Tied 1-1 season series: Pur* (0-0), Ind* (0-0), Mich, OSU *Game remaining: WISCONSIN – projected 13-5Indiana (W) At Penn St (W) Purdue (W) At Nebraska (close W) Favorable tiebreaker: Pur*, MSU, Iowa (2-0), Ill (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind*, OSU Tied season series: Neb* (0-0), PSU* (0-0), Mich, Minn, NW *Game remaining: MICHIGAN STATE – projected 13-5At Michigan (close L) Illinois (W) Iowa (toss-up / W) At Ohio St (close L) Favorable tiebreaker: Iowa*, OSU*, Ill*, Minn, Pur, NW (2-0), Ind (2-0), PSU (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Neb, Wis Tied season series: N/A *Game remaining: MICHIGAN – projected 15-3Mich St (close W) At Purdue (W) Minnesota (W) At Illinois (close W) Indiana (W) Favorable tiebreaker: MSU*, Minn*, Pur*, NW, PSU, OSU, Neb (2-0) Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind* Tied season series: Ill* (0-0), Iowa, Wis *Game remaining:

For the rematch Sunday NU is a -6 home favorite vs Purdue according to the early line - if that holds, that would be the biggest favorite NU has been since joining the B1G - NU is 11-2 vs the spread in B1G games so far this season.

Channel 10 just showed highlights of Fremont-Lincoln East basketball in Lincoln & Walt was in the stands. Must not have been feeling too bad. No crutches visible in the video shot.

Agreed, and it would be pretty easy to do with 18 games and 13 opponents. If you designate 1 rival team as a double play each year (team A), you'd need 4 more double plays each year. So in year 1 double play teams B thru E, year 2 double play teams F thru I and year 3 double play teams J through M. Then start over in year 4. You'd have a double play against everyone every third year, while still keeping your rival team as a double play each year, and of course single plays against everyone every year. I can't imagine they won't make that tweak to the final plan. We should be playing Iowa twice every year, let alone Indiana-Purdue, Minny-Wiscy, or MSU-Mich.

BTN.com's Top 12 upsets in the league this season include 2 by Nebraska ... along with the "best" upset in the B1G. The article includes video highlights from each upset too. http://btn.com/2014/02/20/big-ten-upsets-reviewing-this-seasons-top-12-stunners/ Nebraska 60, Michigan State 51 49.07% Iowa 85, Michigan 67 21.34% Wisconsin 75, Michigan 62 4.85% Penn State 71, Ohio State 70, OT 4.74% Northwestern 65, Wisconsin 56 4.23% Michigan 80, Michigan State 75 4.23% Indiana 63, Michigan 52 3.51% Indiana 75, Wisconsin 72 3.4% Ohio State 59, Wisconsin 58 2.06% Nebraska 68, Ohio State 62 1.65% Ohio State 76, Iowa 69 0.52% Northwestern 54, Indiana 47 0%

Coach Miles is running away with it on the BTN.com poll: http://btn.com/2014/02/20/poll-who-is-your-leader-for-big-ten-coach-of-the-year/ Tim Miles, Nebraska 54.55% Fran McCaffery, Iowa 27.27% Tom Izzo, Michigan State 5.81% John Beilein, Michigan 4.8% Bo Ryan, Wisconsin 4.04% Other 4%

Isn't it nice to actually have something on the line in February again to be able to be nervous about? I like this feeling! Been a while!

NU is 5-0 against the number at home in B1G games this season, and 10-2 against the number overall in B1G games. This is the biggest favorite we've been all season in a B1G game, though. In fact it matches the biggest favorite in a league game that we've been since joining the B1G. The other games are: 2/09/2013 vs PSU in Lincoln - NU -5.5 - W 67-53 1/11/2012 vs PSU in Lincoln - NU -5.5 - W 70-58 I like the way those numbers match up as a good sign for Thursday.

Yeah I think you're spot on. 10-8/18-12 gives us a shot going into the B1G tourney - win at least one there and we're on the bubble, win 2 and we're in. 11-7/19-11 plus 1 B1G win puts us in. A 3-3 finish is a killer, as is an opening round B1G tourney loss. That win at MSU really changes the equation, giving us a leg up on other bubble teams - the committee loves those types of wins, especially among bubble teams. If they're bringing you in as an 11 or 12 seed, they want to have evidence that you can pull an upset away from home, since that's exactly what you'd have to do to advance.

There's no question NU's defensive rotations are significantly better with Parker & Rivers on the floor for more minutes, and I'm sure opposing coaches see that on film study. Biggs would take a lot of chances on defense, and he'd sometimes come up with steals like he did vs OSU and late vs Iowa. But more often he'd miss, leaving his teammates having to help and leaving NU vulnerable. And his defense against ball screens was really bad, night and day difference vs Parker. I'm sure part of it also is a team just finally finding its stride defensively, becoming more mature. When all 5 guys on the floor are buying in on the defensive end though, it makes that progression and maturity happen quicker I believe.