They'll probably give it to Painter. Quite often, if the team that is expected to dominate actually dominates, that coach will get the accolades, which I will never understand. They were picked to be the best and did exactly what almost everyone expected them to do - there's nothing really extraordinary about that, unless you put all the weight of the award on how the team was put together. Sure, that's part of it, but making lemonade out of perceived lemons is much more impressive to me.
IMO, what a coach such as Hoiberg or Johnson has done this year when picked to finish at the bottom of the barrel should far outshine a team living up to expectations. Kudos to Painter for having a dominant player and a great team, but there's nothing overly special about what he's done. Honestly, his coaching prowess could probably be questioned a bit for having a great team and losing some games that they probably shouldn't have.