2019 B1G Tourney Projection

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, TomEadesSucks said:

Does 3 wins make us bubbly?

 

I’m going to have to say 4.  No 16 loss team has ever gotten an at large.

[tcp]

45 minutes ago, TomEadesSucks said:

Does 3 wins make us bubbly?

 

Maybe for the NIT. 

[throwback]

I'd have to say 4 to get in, 3 to be in the discussion, but who knows. 

 

We're 2-12 in Q1 and 6-3 in Q2 after today. Had we gotten 2 more Q1 wins during the regular season, we'd be almost a lock at this point. Crazy.

 

RU is right on the Q2/Q3 cut line for a neutral game, but Wisc and Mary would be Q1 wins.

 

If we win 3 in Chicago, I think we'd be a wrong-side bubble team, sitting at 4 Q1 wins and 6 or 7 Q2 wins. Probably would need 1 more Q1 win to get on the right side of the bubble.

 

Then again, last year, 23 of 24 power 5 teams that won 10+ Q1 and Q2 games made the tournament. None of the 23 were seeded lower than 10. And the one that missed had an RPI in the 80s or 90s.

 

Our NET was #53 before today; I wouldn't expect it'll change much, as the metrics had this game roughly a pick 'em. Beat RU, Mary and Wisc, and our NET probably would be 43-47. Bubble area for sure.

 

It's not going to happen, but, somehow, with the way we've played the past 2 months, we still could earn an at-large berth with a deep run in Chicago. Speaks to how well we played in Nov & Dec and how tough the B1G is.

 

Edited March 11, 2019 by throwback

[throwback]

Again, just for comparison, we played 23 Q1/Q2 games this season. Only 10 teams last year played that many, and that was after their conference tournaments.

 

We've played 14 Q1 games, only 10 teams last year played that many after their conference tournaments.

 

Last year, we played 12 Q1/Q2 games and 7 Q1 games, which was probably bottom 10 among P5 teams. We went from one extreme to the other, and it didn't work out for us either way.

 

[MichHusker]

1 hour ago, TomEadesSucks said:

Does 3 wins make us bubbly?

4 might 

[hskr4life]

Four is the magic number to get in the conversation room.  A 16 loss team has never gotten an at large.  However, a 20 win Big Ten team this year with us adding 3 Q1 wins and a Q2/Q3 win would certainly get them talking.