Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

Seems we can knock one conspiracy theory off the list: “The committee will select teams based on exciting play and storylines.”

Does anybody have experience hunting for March Madness tickets? Whether it was 10 years ago or more recently for a non-Nebraska game. I consider myself a seasoned ticket hunter on the secondary market websites. In my experience it’s pretty random as to whether or not prices will increase or decrease as gameday approaches. So I’m wondering what others expect will happen. I’m close to pulling the trigger on some seats I like today but if people are convinced they’ll be significantly cheaper come Friday morning maybe I’ll wait.

Iowa State is getting Omaha no matter what. I think he’s saying our chances of getting Omaha rise if ISU is a one seed, because he’s assuming we’ll get an 8 or 9.

Man this was such an insane bubble week I’d be concerned about our status if we didn’t beat Indiana. Thank goodness the boys got the job done down the stretch following the Ohio State loss!

I think we’re going to see something wild this year: the at-large play-in games are going to feature 10 seeds instead of the typical 11s and 12s. The only way around it is if they give 10 seeds to Oregon, Drake, NC State, and James Madison. Considering none of them were going to get in without auto bids, it wouldn’t make sense to give them 10s.

OT is treated as a tiebreaker. The way I see it the two teams tied, but since ties aren’t allowed and playing HORSE is a stupid way to break a tie, they play 5 more minutes. There’s a case for both ways of doing it. Sounds like some metrics cap it, some don’t. Either way is reasonable. And again the metrics that do cap it still count the efficiency metrics in OT, so a 10 point loss in OT is still punishing you. Just a muted punishment.

Say there’s two games happening simultaneously. In both of them a team is down one with one second left shooting one FT. One team makes it, sends it to OT, and loses by 10. The other team misses it and loses by one in regulation. If you don’t cap it, you’re punishing the team that actually did better and was able to send it to OT. And they’re already being punished by the efficiency metrics anyways, because I believe those still count in OT.

No but New Mexico could be the first. Also NET hasn’t been around for long. There are many “firsts” yet to come.

The “Trend” column for BPI and SOR is how you’ve changed in the last 7 days. Not since yesterday. Texas beat Oklahoma by 14 on Saturday, so not surprised they’re up a spot.

We have a data point. Texas drops from 25 to 28 for a close loss vs Kansas State. More of a drop than I expected. Michigan State is at 23 and plays Minnesota, who’s ranked lower than Kansas State. Unlikely a loss drops them out of top 30, but if it’s a blowout and/or teams just outside the top 30 win a few it’s not impossible.

What a game! Withstanding their hot start was massive. Thank you Keisei.

What do you mean when you say top seeds? One seeds?

I think Kansas pretty much has no shot at a 2 seed. Iowa State could if they go to the championship in their tourney. More likely they’re both 3 seeds in Omaha, so we’d need to snag a 6 or drop to an 11. But I also think location predictions are pretty much a guessing game. They often send teams far away. There a lots of different requirements they have to juggle when setting up the bracket. No guarantee KU or ISU are in Omaha no matter their seed.

They probably will but they did only move up two spots in KenPom. They’ll probably be straddling the Q1 line all the way till Selection Sunday.

We control our destiny for the double bye. But we still need either a NW or Wiscy loss to get the 3 seed. Wiscy still plays at Purdue so we should be okay there. Also a Wiscy loss would greatly help us for the 4 seed if we lose to Michigan. Despite that I’m still rooting for Wiscy tonight for the Q1 status.

I imagine much of Husker nation will be pulling for Rutgers tonight, but I think that’s unwise. A Q3 loss could have Wisconsin flirting dangerously close with the Q1 cut line. Better if they win tonight then lose at Purdue, as they should.

Using ESPN BPI win probabilities, my math has it as a 19% chance at the 4 and a 2% chance at the 3 if we were to lose.

To get the 4 with a loss we would need one of the following scenarios: 1) Illinois beats Iowa + Indiana beats MSU + Wisconsin loses one or both (vs Rutgers; @ Purdue) 2) Illinois beats Iowa + Wisconsin loses both 3) Indiana beats Minnesota (currently up at halftime) + Minnesota beats NW + Wisconsin loses both Crazy as it sounds, the 3 seed is still possible if we lose. Add an Iowa loss to #3 above and that’s how we’d get it.

We can also get the 3 seed if Wisconsin loses to Rutgers or Northwestern loses to Minnesota.

That was true even before tonight.

I don’t mean to over-inflate my perceived importance of it. It’s definitely just a minor detail. But would I rather our quads be 3-7 and 4-2 instead of 3-8 and 4-1? Yeah, I do think the former looks better, as illogical as it may be. Decision making doesn’t always follow sound logic. They are analyzing over 50 teams, so you want good “advertising” on your resume that pops. The Q1 record pops. Fair point on allowing another team’s win to enter Q1 if Maryland were to drop out. Though the probability that another bubble team has that exact win that slides back in there isn’t high.

K-State down to 78 in NET. Back to Q2. Our Q1 record of 3-7 isn’t pretty. It’d be really nice if KSU could jump back in. Though with only a home game vs Iowa State remaining, I don’t anticipate them winning and doing so. Boy they’ve been a frustrating follow the last six weeks. Also if Minnesota jumps one more spot it becomes 3-8. Although that would bump a Q3 win up to Q2 as well, so maybe a good tradeoff. I’d like to see our Maryland loss drop to Q2.

KSU game wasn’t over yet. Ended up losing 90-68. Better than 81-53 for efficiency metrics. We’ll see how far they drop. They’ll probably need to beat ISU at home this weekend and at least have a good showing in their Big XII tourney game to finish Q1. I don’t like their chances.

Outside of playing in Omaha, this would be a dream scenario. Mountain West has been poor in the tournament aside from SDSU’s run last year. And Marquette’s star PG (Tyler Kolek) is out indefinitely right now too. They say oblique but I’ve seen rumors it’s academics? Who knows. But I’m sure they’re a very different team without him.

More likely Illinois. If NW loses one game it would give us the 3 seed.