Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

He’s drafted 31st on nbadraft.net, which is the site I usually refer to. I think that’s underselling him too. I’d bet a lot of money he goes 1st round if he enters.

Absolutely. He passes the eye test. He passes the stats test. He should be a 1st rounder.

Sooo Hunter Sallis is really freaking good.

No doubt about that. I will say bracketologists are pretty good at predicting the field, usually getting a couple wrong. But they are rarely good at predicting seeds, matchups, and locations. No reason to get excited about anyone putting us in Omaha. It’s a complete guess.

Nebrasketballers 79 Golden Goofoo 74

I wouldn’t want to face Kentucky or Florida. Kentucky at their best could win the title. And Florida has been playing better than their side line the last month. I’m rooting for both to improve to a 5 seed so we can avoid them.

Would’ve been interesting. Looking back I realized we actually did win two Q2 games to go along with our Q1 win vs Michigan. By my count I think we were 1-6 in Q1 and 2-3 in Q2, and we had a Q3 loss at Illinois. If we beat Kansas that flips the Q1 record to 2-5. I’m not totally convinced a win vs KU would’ve put us in, but definitely possible. Going 4-8 in the top two quads isn’t good, and our only great wins would’ve been at home, but also hard to leave out a 23 win major conference team.

Also something to note for Rutgers. If they do beat us in Lincoln they’ll get a big NET boost. They’re down to 92 now after getting smoked by Purdue, but it’s still possible for them to finish in the top 75 if they beat us. In which case it would not be a Q3 loss.

Yep. NET severely overrates BYU, which means KSU should get a nice boost if they win. Rooting for that team the last two weeks has taken years off my life. Yet Q1 is still there for the taking.

I’ve lost all faith in his leverage metrics. There’s just no way a Kentucky loss is more important than any game. I struggle to see why it even matters at all. Iowa State West Va doesn’t matter. Vermont vs Bryant? What? I think this is a case of diving too deep into numbers, like how games slightly impact other teams’ SOS rankings for example. I doubt his algorithm accounts for the value of Kansas State jumping into Q1, which IMO makes their game against BYU today the most important game of the day for us.

Keisei effect lol

There are years when one of the play-in games is between 12 seeds. It would require no bid stealers and a handful of mid major conference champions with great resumes worthy of seeding 11 or better.

Auburn was a 9 seed last year in Birmingham. Houston as a 1 seed had to contend with that. Also you’re overestimating ticket prices. By a lot. There is no chance the total cost of travel plus ticket to another location exceeds the cost of just a ticket in Omaha. Booking a last minute flight anywhere is going to run you at least $500 alone.

He was just making a joke that in every game only one of the two teams wins (i.e. half). They’re still 12-3 there this year.

Despite K-State’s best efforts to free fall, they moved up four spots to 77 last night without even playing. Huge opportunity Saturday as they host BYU. KSU will probably be favored, but with BYU being way overrated in NET it’d be a big win as far as the numbers are concerned.

NGL - I notice Brice getting away with it way more often than getting called for it.

Now of course we’re hoping bubble talk isn’t relevant by Selection Sunday, but I’m going to keep monitoring it until we hit what I consider our lock target of 22 wins. So with that said, just had a wild finish to the Colorado State New Mexico game. Unfortunately NM wins.

To be clear, I was saying I was hoping for a bigger jump in KenPom. I was obviously more than satisfied with the outcome of the game.

Dang I was hoping for more. We moved up 5 after the home PSU win. Good points on creating some separation though. Will be interesting to see NET movement.

Efficiency metrics still count though, so a bucket isn’t meaningless. But it’s definitely more important if you’re up less than 10.

I think I agree with you, but there is one other view that I can see as well. When you look at A&M’s entire body of work, they’ve done extremely well in the Q1 games and very poorly in Q3. Adding another Q3 loss doesn’t really change the committee’s view of them all that much. Is the difference between four Q3 losses vs five worth all that much? They’re being selected for their ability to beat great teams. Their poor performance in Q3 was already baked into the cake before last night. Whereas for Nebraska, the committee might be monitoring our poor road performance, thinking if we go 0-10 in the league they’ll have a hard time putting us in. They know we have three chances left, so each opportunity missed represents a big leap toward that deadly 0-10. In other words, you can’t just view every game in isolation when making daily updates to the field. They all carry a different context. One type of loss may hurt one team’s resume more than the same type of loss would hurt another team’s.

Yeah, A&M dropped by only one spot and actually stayed in his Last 4 Byes. Pretty crazy for a Q3 loss. Although his breakdown also says Ole Miss will drop out if they lose tonight on the road against a tournament team. That means a drop of at least 3 spots. No idea why they would get punished harder than A&M. So who knows what a loss tonight would do to us.

I admire the ambition. I’m not ready to go that far though. Priority 1 is getting into the dance, and enhancing our resume is the most likely way to do that. Speaking of which, MSU is down to 24 in NET now. Starting to flirt with that Q1 cutline. Would be horrible if they drop out.

I didn’t really care who won this game. You could make an argument for either being better for us. What we probably didn’t want was a blowout that’s going to shoot the winner up in the metrics. Damn lol

Conference standings really mean nothing to the committee. We should worry more about our resume than about where we finish in the league. The only benefit to the double bye from a resume perspective is we likely avoid an opportunity for a bad loss. With that said it is not good for Michigan State and Wisconsin to lose. Those are our 2nd and 3rd best wins. They need to remain impressive, and absolutely need to remain in Q1.