Game Day Essentials: Game #25 vs Michigan

[hhcmatt]

Nebraska Cornhuskers (16-8) vs Michigan Wolverines (8-15)

 

Date: Saturday Feb 10th,  2024
Time: 5:30 pm
Arena: PBA

Broadcast:  BTN

Michigan Info

 

Head Coach: Juwan Howard (5th Season)
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Conference: B1G
Nickname: Wolverines

Point Spread: Nebraska by 9.5

Typical Rotation Depth: 8

KenPom rank: 97

Nota bene:  

• Michigan has beaten Nebraska 16 out of the 17 times they've played since Nebraska joined the B1G
• It's a matchup of former NBA players who are also coaching their sons. Jace Howard plays for Juwan while Sam Hoiberg plays for Fred.  While Juwan wasn't a head coach in the NBA, he was an assistant for the Heat for 6 seasons.
• Starting PG Dug McDaniel is on a unique academics-based suspension where he only plays in home games. He will not play in this game.
• Olivier Nkamhoua, like Derrick Walker, is a former Tennessee big man though their time with the Volunteers didn't overlap as Nkamhoua started the year that Walker left.
• Eli Rice appears to be out for this one. Seems important for Nebraska to get him back after the bye this week to provide more depth

 

KenPom most used lineups

	PG	SG	SF	PF	C	Pct
1	0 Dug McDaniel 5-11  175  So	4 Nimari Burnett 6-4  200  Sr	5 Terrance Williams 6-7  225  Sr	13 Olivier Nkamhoua 6-9  235  Sr	32 Tarris Reed 6-10  265  So	31.0
2	3 Jaelin Llewellyn 6-2  190  Sr	4 Nimari Burnett 6-4  200  Sr	5 Terrance Williams 6-7  225  Sr	13 Olivier Nkamhoua 6-9  235  Sr	32 Tarris Reed 6-10  265  So	12.3

 

Player to watch: Olivier Nkamhoua

Finnish forward and Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua is the 2nd leading scorer on the team behind Dug McDaniel. Mostly slotting at the 4, Nkamhoua also spends time at the 5 which gives Michigan the option to have 5 shooters on the floor. His offensive numbers scream 'Rienk Mast but better at converting in the paint' to give you an idea of how dangerous he can be.

 

Player to watch:    Jaelin Llewellyn

Last season the Princeton transfer PG came to Michigan to run the show while the Wolverines brought in freshman McDaniel as a backup. Eight games into the season, Llewellyn tore his ACL and McDaniel had to take over. This season Llewellyn didn't play his first game until Dec 2nd and was mostly riding the bench until this McDaniels suspension thing started.  Now he averages 30+ minutes per game on the road and sometimes barely plays at home. Llewellyn functions more like a caretaker in his version of the Michigan offense where he brings the ball up the court though doesn't do much in terms of distribution.  He isn't shooting much but is hitting a smoking 15-28 from 3 this season. (53.6%)

 

Player to watch: Terrance Williams 

In addition to his defensive prowess, Williams has stepped up his offensive game and is shooting 39.1% from 3. His shot distribution is split between the 2 and 3 so he's an opportunistic scorer

 

Player to watch: Tarris Reed

In some ways the starting center for the Wolverines might be the most important player on the court today as he very well might determine if Nebraska will double in the post like they have most of the season or play more straight up like vs Northwestern. Reed finishes at high percentage in the paint and is their one true rim protector. He's not a threat from outside and is a terrible FT shooter.

 

Others to watch

Formrer McDonald's All-American Nimari Burnett is an all around efficient player with the caveat that he's a shooting guard who isn't particularly good at shooting. This is his 3rd school after Texas Tech and Alabama. 6'10' 215# backup center and Seton Hall transfer Tray Jackson is traditional center depth for the Wolverines. Beefy 6'8" 245# forward Will Tschetter has a remarkable 73.4% eFG% off the bench. Everyone else on the bench is depth including Juwan Howard's son Jace. 

 

UNL Game Notes

 

Out indefinitely 

5   Ahron Ulis     6-3    190 lbs    Junior - Likely out for the season

 

Questionable

15  Blaise Keita     6-11    257 lbs    Junior - Ongoing ankle injury recovery

11    Eli Rice                         6-8    213 lbs    Freshman - Ankle injury

 

Possible starters for Nebraska

10    Jamarques Lawrence  6-3    183 lbs    Sophomore

30   Keisei Tominaga           6-2    179 lbs    Senior

3     Brice Williams               6-7    213 lbs    Junior

53   Josiah Allick                 6-8    231 lbs    Senior

51    Rienk Mast                 6-10    248 lbs    Junior

 

Bench

4   Juwan Gary                   6-6    221 lbs    Junior

0    C.J. Wilcher                  6-5    214 lbs    Junior

9    Jarron Coleman            6-5    213 lbs    Senior
1    Sam Hoiberg                 6-0    183 lbs    Sophomore
21    Matar Diop                 6-10    213 lbs    Freshman

35    Henry Burt                  6-7    216 lbs    RS Freshman

2    Ramel Lloyd Jr.             6-6    210 lbs    RS Freshman

31    Cale Jacobsen            6-4    200 lbs    RS Freshman

24    Jeffrey Grace III         6-3    197 lbs    Sophomore 

 

Hoiberg Presser

HCFH notes we've played the most conference games and have the latest bye.

Starting lineup TBD because Lawrence liked coming off the bench

Focus has been rebounding and taking care of the ball

 

The Skinny: 

The Wolverines are once again underachieving relative to the amount of talent they tend to acquire and thus many see Juwan Howard being on the hot seat.  However, one thing not to overlook here is the talented roster as Michigan has led at the end half of 10 of their 12 conference games and finally put together a complete game in a home win over a ranked Wisconsin team. One takeaway from all of this is regardless of how down any team in the conference appears to be, they're more than capable of knocking off a Nebraska team that isn't playing with high effort. 

 

Michigan is a particularly dangerous wounded adversary because their style is difficult for Nebraska to handle.  Defensively the Wolverines run you off the 3 and effectively turn you into a drive to the basket squad. Offensively, Michigan prefers to do their damage from 3 though they also possess capable inside scoring. One last challenge is that they'll crash the offensive boards effectively.

 

Despite these advantages their are plenty of downsides to the Wolverines as Nebraska should win the turnover battle. Juwan Howard's teams have always valued defending without fouling over generating turnovers. Meanwhile, the Michigan offense has been fairly turnover prone. They also give up plenty of offensive rebounds themselves.

 

This is a plenty losable game for Nebraska but between the loss at Northwestern and Michigan's win expect Nebraska to be ready in this one and enough juice from the crowd to carry Nebraska should they find themselves to be the 11th conference foe out of 13 to be behind at the half to Michigan.

 

Prediction: Nebraska 85 - Michigan 79

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[tcp]

Fortunately they're at home. The crowd shoud keep their energy level up high enough to ensure that the effort required for them to win games stays present thru most of the game. 

 

Key: Do NOT let the crowd go to sleep by getting too far behind early. 

[jimmykc]

Anyone care to look up when the last Big Ten game in which we were favored by more than ten points was played? Is Vegas trying to jinx us??