Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

K-State is our only road win. We want them to win every single game. That win needs to look as good as possible, and is easily worth the tradeoff of them climbing into the bubble race.

Interesting. If they fail to upset UNC or Duke they will certainly be on the bubble going into the ACC tourney.

I have lost whatever respect I had left for Andy Katz. How on earth can he justify South Carolina over Auburn?

The name of the team featured in the movie Hoosiers- 84 Hoosiers - 73 We torch the nets.

This is one difference, but the biggest difference is they smoked their Q4 opponents by 40+ points in almost every game. They were ranked top 10 or maybe even top 5 in NET going into conference play. An absolute tragedy that the metrics would care about that, but alas, they do. Someone needs to get the memo to Fred. Next year, no screwing around in blowouts. Don’t unload the bench. Keep pouring it on.

It would slightly help our NET by season’s end because we’ll have played two vs OSU compared to one vs Purdue. But that difference is negligible. More important IMO is Purdue maintains their dominant status so our win vs them is as pristine as possible. They lose a couple more and suddenly that win turns from elite to just really good.

I don’t bet often, but when I do it’s usually to hedge against my happiness on Nebraska sports. This one is appealing…

I think the committee puts more focus on Q1 record than Q2 because as a bubble team you’ll be playing Q1 games in the tourney. It’s probably not a huge deal, but the optics of Q1 Q2 records of 3-7, 3-1 look slightly worse than 3-5, 3-3 IMO. I’d say for teams we play both home and away, the tradeoff of bumping up a home win from Q3 to Q2 is worth it. So Minnesota getting into the top 75 could be a net positive.

NET has already refreshed post-Sunday games. Interestingly, we passed Utah despite them winning on the road at UCLA. So we’re at 49 now. Ohio State is up to 64 (from 72). That makes it much more likely our games against them will end up Q1 and Q2, which is nice. Especially if we beat them again. And now Minnesota has a great opportunity to do the same. They’re up to 77 (from 82). If they reach 75 I don’t love that our road loss would turn into Q1, but it would be big if we beat them in Lincoln for a Q2 win.

Nice W for Northwestern. Our home win vs them is on the verge of becoming Q2A, which is NET 31-55. They’re 59 as of this morning. It’d be helpful if they can finish strong and solidify themselves as a 6 or 7 seed. The loss for Indiana should contribute towards a less daunting environment for us Wednesday too.

NET is purely numbers based. The biggest head scratcher is BYU being #9. They aren’t a big name. MSU is high because they’ve played an extremely difficult SOS, and while they’ve lost most of their Q1 games, they were close losses. Win margin matters a great deal to NET.

Down goes Purdue. The sparkling win on our resume loses a bit of shine. Desperately need them to start playing better. Almost lost at home to Minnesota too. The good news? Ohio State is certainly locked into the top 75 of NET, meaning our home win will remain Q2 and our road game will be a Q1 opportunity.

Yeah they played tough against Sparty last night. Beat Wisconsin at home. They have their best player in home games. Could be Howard’s last home game, which will be emotional. I’d call us dogs unless we prove otherwise at Indiana and Ohio State.

If one thing’s for certain, coming off a couple wins fans will believe we’ll never lose again. Coming off a couple losses fans will believe the season is over. In my view we’re still dogs in each of our three road games. Do I think we’ll pick one up? Probably. Two or three is a tall task.

Yep. It’s critical they keep winning, along with Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Kansas State. Purdue is in trouble at halftime for the second consecutive game… hopefully they rally again.

I just did a deep dive on the team sheets for all teams seeded 7 and worse, plus the first 12 teams out according to Lunardi. I’d say we’re placed about where we should be. Our record vs Q1+Q2 is on the slightly lower end compared to the group. Our road record is obviously as low as it gets. Purdue win is a boost. After that our best wins are average or even subpar compared to most other bubble teams. I think our fanbase is still viewing the Wisconsin win as a top tier win, which is creating this narrative that we have a bunch of high quality wins that other teams don’t. It would be the 3rd or 4th best win for most bubble teams.

I guess I’m not totally clear on what your point is. Yes, our resume right now is definitely better than 2018. We have six wins in Q1+Q2 compared to only one in 2018. That doesn’t mean it’s good enough to get in. Our 2018 team wasn’t even close to making it, nor should it have been.

I think our fans are overrating our quality wins. Yes, the Purdue win stands out, though like it or not it comes with an asterisk of being at home. Beyond that our best wins are average or even mediocre when compared to other bubble teams’ best wins. Most bubble teams have a great road win or two, which trumps our home wins vs Michigan State and Wisconsin. The committee loves to reference a team’s ability to win away from home. Unfortunately that’s a major knock against us unless we turn that statistic around these next few weeks. I still think the target is pretty simple: 21 wins to feel decent; 22 to feel comfortably in.

What a tough shot. He seemed more focused on drawing a foul than actually making it. Bummer. Good news is K-State didn’t even move down in KenPom. Overall a great morning for us though. Wake loses, Butler and A&M get smoked. And of course, our clobbering.

NU 82 PSU 69

I’ve seen it stated that teams who host their conference tournament have those games counted as home games for the purpose of quads. And their opponents count it as a road game. Does anyone know if this applies to Minnesota this year? It’s not in their arena but it’s darn close.

Washington State is the only other that’s relatively safely in if the tourney started today. But they’re far from a lock still. The Pac-12 tourney won’t be much different from the WCC, A-10, and AAC this year lol. Only one, maybe two teams to pull for.

Saw that. Also Langborg was ejected early for a weak flagrant 2. Damn.

Wouldn’t the last four out be teams 359-362?

They already have 18 wins on a very tough SOS (at least according to the numbers). They could finish 1-6 and they’d still be in, which if you follow that Twitter account it fits into his definition of Lock.