HuskerFever

The context in another thread someone proposed was essentially "How are other coaches doing in these circumstances?" So I was using Hoiberg as a benchmark given we tend to care most about that on this board. But yeah, a headline like "The Intersection of Coaching Performance for those Starting a New Position in 2019" is confusing. I tried using ChatGPT (developed by OpenAI) just now to write a better headline, but got mixed results Headline 1: "2019 Coaches See Record Turnover in Head Coaching Positions" Headline 2: "Head Coaches in Power Conferences Outperform Those in Mid-Majors" Headline 3: "Head Coaches Under the Microscope: Analyzing Performance in the NCAA" Headline 4: "Head Coaches: Successes and Failures in the Spotlight" Headline 5: "COVID-19 Puts Head Coaches to the Test: How Have They Responded?"

I guess you may be misinterpreting the entire point of this analysis. First, I'll say, no time was wasted. As many know on this board, I thoroughly enjoy digging into the nuances of data and I figured I'd just share a part of what I dug into today as sometimes other people seem to appreciate the analysis (and sometimes not). Second, as mentioned in my opening this is addressing a question about how other coaches have fared in a similar time-period where a coach gets hired, COVID puts a major shock into the college basketball system, and seeing how other coaches have fared with that. Nobody said anything about a new coach, firing Fred, or making arguments about any coaches. You're right, there's a whole lot more that can be factored in. Especially if the whole point was to make an argument for/against firing someone. But that's not what this was about. For the sake of simplicity I was looking at recency, not digging through the entire history of 363 head basketball coaches. It certainly would be interesting to see how D1 basketball coaching careers trend, and what the probability of returning from down seasons/demotions. If the point was about looking at how coaches fared in 2010-2015, we'd have to compare how the landscape is different today than 8-13 years ago, then see how coaches during that timeframe are faring today. When you talk about no history of basketball success, I looked at every single Power 6 school. That includes coaches who are doing relatively well for the bottom-feeder programs. It also includes the Kenny Payne who's 2-19 (0-10) today. You mentioned SOS. I'm not addressing Hoiberg's situation. Nevertheless, that's scheduled 2 years out; strategy varies by coach but ideally you're trying to optimize your projected expectations/development of players. This has nothing to do with support, or lack of support, of a coach. Just an analysis of other 2019 coaches. The way you're taking issue to it seems to signify something in the data didn't align well with your feelings or opinion about some other topic.

For the sake of keeping this thread to college hoops, I posted the football head coaching data here:

Per suggestion from @AuroranHusker, here's a similar look for coaching tenure and hires for the Power 5 coaches. For simplicity, it's important to note that this is based on 2022 coaches. This was intentional due to upcoming conference realignments that may muddy up the results of hiring behaviors by conferences. It's also minor, but I included Notre Dame experience as "Power 5" and North Dakota State experience as "Mid-Major". Mid-Major is just a rollover from the college basketball analysis, which simply means "non-Power 5". * number of seasons at their current school (as of 2022) Big Ten far-and-above has the longest tenure of head coaches among the Power 5 conferences Pac-12 and ACC have the next longest tenure Big 12 and SEC with the shortest tenure across Power 5 conferences * This is based on the most recent job experience prior to taking the head coaching job at their current school (as of 2022) (not total coaching experience) Unlike college basketball, there are zero coaches hired with recent Mid-Major assistant experience (i.e., Utah State QB/OC) Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC hired coaches with prior NFL experience ACC: 87% of coaches come from Mid-Major Coaches and Power 5 Assistants Big 12: Consists only of Mid-Major Coaches and Power 5 Assistants (evenly split) Big Ten: 43% come from NFL Coaches/Assistants and Power 5 Coaches, next largest comes from Power 5 Assistants Pac-12: Similar to the Big Ten, 42% come from NFL Coaches/Assistants and Power 5 Coaches; and similar to Big 12, half come from Power 5 Assistants SEC: Fairly evenly split among NFL/Power 5 Coaches, Power 5 Assistants, and Mid-Major Coaches

Digging into some other things, I came across something I thought was interesting. When you look at the active coaching tenure at current schools, it's clear some conferences are going through rebuilds at the same time. It is also interesting to see what type of coach each conference has tended to go after (at least with their current staff). * number of seasons at their current school ACC continues to lead the way in terms of average coaching tenure Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 are relatively on the same average tenure Big East and SEC have undergone many coaching changes as of late * This is based on the most recent job experience prior to taking the head coaching job at their current school (not total coaching experience) ACC and Big Ten have gone after recent/prior NBA head coaches Big East, Big Ten, and SEC have gone after recent/prior NBA assistant coaches ACC: Wide array of prior coaching experience Big 12: Largest proportion coming from prior Power 6 assistants Big East: Leaned much more heavily on prior Power 6 coaches Big Ten: Wide array of prior coaching experience; more heavily in prior Power 6 assistants Pac-12: Vast majority coming from prior Mid-Major coaching experience SEC: Focused more on prior Mid-Major coaching experience I find it interesting because Nebraska's recent coaches have come from an NBA head coach and Mid-Major head coaches. When looking at the Big Ten, 21% comes from recent NBA experience and Power 6 assistants. The Big 12 has a heavy focus on Power 6 assistants as well. Maybe it's because we don't have a stable program that's positioned for longevity and succession planning. But we haven't really spent much time talking about the talent pool of Power 6 assistants out there. Might be nothing. But something that stood out.

It's no secret that Hoiberg started his tenure here in what became a less desired time, given COVID threw everything into disarray. It's also no secret that he didn't have the same momentum as joining a new conference, new dedicated basketball practice facility, and construction being completed on a brand new stadium. It's unfortunate. It really is. But all that aside, how has he performed in relation to his other Power 6 peers? Active P6 Coaches Starting in 2019 (excl. Hoiberg): Total coaches: 10; Mike Young (Virginia Tech), Mike Anderson (St. John's), Juwan Howard (Michigan), Mark Fox (California), Mick Cronin (UCLA), Kyle Smith (Washington State), Nate Oats (Alabama), Eric Musselman (Arkansas), Buzz Williams (Texas A&M), Jerry Stackhouse (Vanderbilt) W/L: 668-483 (58%) CW/CL: 311-325 (49%) 1+ postseasons: 8 of 10 = 80%; Mike Anderson (St. John's), Mark Fox (California) have yet to make it into a postseason Between the 8 postseason coaches: NCAA Final Four, NCAA Elite Eight x3, NCAA Sweet Sixteen x3, NCAA First Round x3, NIT Final, NIT Semifinal, NIT Quarterfinal Total (Conference) Avg Y1 Wins: 16.4 (7.5) Avg Y2 Wins: 16.7 (9.0) Avg Y3 Wins: 21.3 (9.9) Any season >10 W: 10 of 10; Only seasons <=10 wins: Y2 Mark Fox (9), Y2 Buzz Williams (8), Y2 Jerry Stackhouse (9) Any season >4 CW: 10 of 10; Only seasons <=4 wins: Y2 Mark Fox (3), Y2 Buzz Williams (2), Y2 Jerry Stackhouse (3) All Active P6 Coaches Starting 2019, 2020, 2021 (excl. Hoiberg): Total Coaches: 37 Started 2020 (1): Steve Forbes (Wake Forest) Started 2021 (12): Earl Grant (Boston College), T. J. Otzelberger (Iowa State), Porter Moser (Oklahoma), Mark Adams (Texas Tech), Thad Matta (Butler), Tony Stubblefield (DePaul), Shaka Smart (Marquette), Mike Woodson (Indiana), Ben Johnson (Minnesota), Micah Shrewsberry (Penn State), Tommy Lloyd (Arizona), Craig Smith (Utah) Started 2022 (14): Jon Scheyer (Duke), Kenny Payne (Louisville), Jerome Tang (Kansas State), Rodney Terry (Texas; interim), Shaheen Holloway (Seton Hall), Kyle Neptune (Villanova), Sean Miller (Xavier), Kevin Willard (Maryland), Todd Golden (Florida), Mike White (Georgia), Matt McMahon (Louisiana State), Chris Jans (Mississippi State), Dennis Gates (Missouri), Lamont Paris (South Carolina) W/L: 1,262-912 (58%) CW/CL: 542-622 (47%) 1+ postseasons: 15 of 23 (excludes Y1 coaches) = 65% Every single 2019, 2020, and 2021 coach has had at least one >10 win season Every single 2019, 2020, and 2021 coach has had at least one >4 conference win season Total (Conference) Avg Y1 Wins: 15.3 (6.3) Avg Y2 Wins: 15.0 (6.8) Avg Y3 Wins: 20.7 (9.5) Hoiberg: W/L: 34-79 (30%) CW/CL: 12-58 (17%) 1+ postseasons: 0 Total (Conference) Y1 Wins: 7 (2) Y2 Wins: 7 (3) Y3 Wins: 10 (4) Hoiberg vs. Coaches At-or-Below His Tenure at Nebraska (2019): # of 2019 coaches (same as Hoiberg): 13 # of 2020 coaches (1 fewer year vs. Hoiberg): 1 # of 2021 coaches (2 fewer years vs. Hoiberg): 12 # of 2022 coaches (3 fewer years vs. Hoiberg): 6 Records: vs. 2019 coaches: 4-8 (0-5) vs. 2020 coaches: 0-1 (0-0) vs. 2021 coaches: 5-5 (3-4) vs. 2022 coaches: 3-2 (0-1) Total: 12-16 (3-10) If you look at just Power 6 coaches, those records are: vs. 2019 coaches: 1-6 (0-5) vs. 2020 coaches: 0-0 (0-0) vs. 2021 coaches: 4-5 (3-4) vs. 2022 coaches: 0-2 (0-1) Total: 5-13 (3-10) TLDR; There are 10 other active Power 6 coaches who started at their current programs in 2019 Those coaches have won 58% of their games, 49% of conference games; Hoiberg is 30% and 17% -- the worst total and conference record amongst all 24 active P6 coaches who started between 2019-2021 Average wins has increased every season (16.4 in 2019, 16.7 in 2020, and 21.3 in 2021); 6.3, 8.8, 9.5 in conference wins 8 of those 10 coaches have made it to at least 1 postseason during that time Of all active coaches who started with their current program between 2019-2021, all 23 of them have had more than a 10-win season and more than a 4-win conference season Hoiberg has coached against a team with the equal-or-younger coaching tenure 32 times, with a record of 12-16 (3-10) against those coaches If you only look at the Power 6 coaches with equal-or-younger coaching tenure that has happened 22 times, with a record of 5-13 (3-10) against those coaches It's also worth noting that Hoiberg will have faced a first-year coach six times by the end of this season (Maine, Omaha, Kansas State, Queens University, Maryland x2)

This really got me thinking, which is dangerous. Did some digging and I'll post a thread on something related to this shortly.

Red - 63 Crush - 78

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Well I guess if you're going to get called for a technical foul, at least make it more worth it than being called for staring at somebody.

I don't do math well, but last I knew it's hard to win a game when you regress back to double-digit deficits every 5 minutes.

Are you in the Big Ten? Are you ahead of Nebraska in the conference standings? Then you're a tournament hopeful. And even if you're behind Nebraska in the standings, that's fine. You can just take their spot.

Horrible final 1:30 to close out the half here. Missed opportunities and careless mistakes. These seconds can be the difference for us in some games this season.

The refs are paid by the Big Ten. The announcers are paid by the Big Ten. Not always worth biting the hand that feeds you.

Hoiberg on the hot seat. Hoiberg on fire. Which one is it?

Is this why we lured Fred here? To get his son to commit?

Breidenbach was so hyped when we recruited him. He's been anything but. If anything, Hoiberg today has shot the way I was expecting Wilhelm to all this time.

The problem is, we don't have Anybody.

Putting this here for the few fans here who see this over already. I'll choose to see it as an opportunity to advance past the first day of the Big Ten tournament. https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/basketball?iso=20230308T23&p0=64&msg=Imminent+Inevitability&font=cursive&csz=1

Yeah, but he had to build the program his first two years, so really he's 20-33 (7-23) in these past 1.5 seasons. Wait...that doesn't help.

Trev has given me zero reason to not believe in his decision-making so far in his tenure. I default to his judgement.

Corn - 62 Turtle - 70

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