GhostOfJoeMcCray

I've been thinking about this too. We are trapping the post/baseline just like we did last year. So what was the point of getting a 7-1 statue to protect the rim only to play the same way? Our 2pt FG% allowed right now is 48.3% and 3pt FG% allowed is 32.6%. Last year those numbers were 45.2% and 32.5%. So our opponents are shooting the 3 at the same efficiency as last year but are actually shooting better inside the arc. At the end of the day, we were 309 out of 362 teams in 3-point attempts allowed last year and this year we are 358. If our opponent is hitting 3s, we are toast. I wish it didn't have to be that way and we had an alternative plan for teams like Iowa and Purdue, but it seems like we are who we are and we're content with trying to win our home games and hope our strategy works in a road game or two against someone who goes cold (like Creighton did). However as was posted above, Purdue (7) and Iowa (10) are elite 3pt shooting teams. Rutgers (223), Maryland (60) and USC (321) have not been. In fact, the next closest 3pt% teams behind Purdue (7) and Iowa (10) are Ohio State (33), Michigan (33) and Maryland (60). Perhaps it was just a horrible week against two horrible matchups for us, both on the road. Let's go out and win some.

I did a little research because it feels like this team doesn't get off to good starts and we're playing a lot of catch-up with our bench. I just used the first under-4 media timeout as a barometer for how we start the game (Fred usually makes his first subs then). Here's what I found: -We have outscored our opponents by +126 points this season. -In the first four minutes before the media timeout, we are -1 (131-132). The regular starting lineup we use is -11 (103-114) in the first four minutes. The three times we've deviated from it we are +10 (28-18). Small sample size, but those games were FDU, UNF and Michigan State. -Away from PBA it's really bad. In road/neutral games we are outscored -22 (56-78) before the first media timeout. We've trailed in 6 of 8 road/neutral games at the first break. In the other 36 minutes of neutral/road games, we are only a combined -10. -We're 12-4 overall so winning is great and our bench depth is very good, but this has overshadowed some red flags, in my opinion. Remember in some of our more competitive games, St. Mary's had us down 23-9 at one point. Bethune-Cookman had us down 10-4. Hawaii had us down 17-9. Oregon State was up 17-13 midway through the first half. UCLA 7-0. Iowa 13-6. Purdue...let's not even go there and that one obviously turned out uncompetitive. -Yes it's not how you start, it's how you finish. But constantly playing from behind out of the gate cannot mathematically set you up for sustained success in the long run. The only 2 games against real competition that we started well were at Creighton (12-8) and vs. Indiana (17-10). Could that be because Meah had a clearly defined role out there guarding a very good big man? Not sure. I don't think there's any one player to blame or any one player who would fix it. But something about the chemistry of that first 5 seems way off. We do not seem to come out with much intensity or execution at the start.

Warning: Viewer discretion advised. +/- at Purdue Grace -1 Jacobsen -2 Griffiths -4 Ulis -13 Meah -14 Essegian -15 Hoiberg -17 Worster -19 Morgan -21 Berke -23 Williams -24 Gary -27 Season +/- Per Game Essegian +6.6 Gary +5.5 Worster +5.3 Williams +5.1 Hoiberg +4.4 Berke +4.0 Meah +2.9 Jacobsen +2.8 Morgan +0.6 Ulis -1.1

Last 2 opponents are 36-68 from 3 (53%).

The fact that Griffiths isn't in this game yet tells me a lot about what the staff thinks of him.

But they don't shut the other team down.

Line change!

I would love to see the advanced metrics of lineup combinations we use. There is no way that this group of 5 is our best offensive or defensive unit.

10 minutes played for Hoiberg that half was not enough.

All true, but Brice is disinterested in playing defense today so he doesn't have a lot of room to pout.

we've given away 9 possessions though

Our opponents are 17-31 (55%) from 3 over the last two halves we've played.

Unfortunately the old make our opponents hit 3s to beat us philosophy didn't have a great week at Iowa and Purdue.

But not bad enough to discourage him from shooting.

Juwan and Rollie are 0-6.

It won't be, but Brice running PG last year worked very well and he scored a lot. Indiana is the only Big Ten game out of 5 now that we've had a good start.

Struggling to see what Worster and Ulis do well for this team. I preferred our offense with Brice running point from last year.

Perhaps it's time to revisit this. It seems we start off every game like crap. I'm not sure our point guard situation this year is any better than it was last year where we didn't have one.

I wouldn’t say they’re excuses. I’m giving reasons why I think he hasn’t been good at DI basketball. He has to shoot better and he has to be physically and mentally tougher. Not everyone can do it. It’s hard. Maybe he doesn’t have it in him. Maybe he does. Whatever the case, I’m sure Fred has had talks with him about what he needs to be doing if he wants to see the court.

If you re-watch the final 3 minutes of the Southern game, Gavin did everything right. He was trying hard, he was active, his head was on a swivel on defense, he was trying to box out but Southern wasn't even trying for offensive boards at that time in the game so he was blocking air. He got to his spots on offense. Honestly I just think it boils down to a couple simple things: 1) Gavin isn't very strong. He's the same height as Brice but weighs 20 pounds less. He's the same height as Braden Frager but weighs about 30 pounds less. He's 3 inches taller than Connor Essegian and essentially weighs the same. He's not quick enough to guard Big Ten guards and he's not strong enough to guard Big Ten wings. I can't remember what game it was but he had a turnover early on where an opponent basically just took the ball out of his hands as he was holding it. I think he struggles with physicality and gets pushed around easily. 2) He's not a good shooter when the lights are on. Fred and players said he could light it up at practice in the offseason. Well no one is watching then. He's now a 27.5% career 3pt shooter in college with 131 attempts of sample size. Some guys just get nervous when it's game time.

+/- at Iowa Meah +1 Grace +1 Hoiberg 0 Essegian -4 Gary -4 Jacobsen -5 Worster -6 Ulis -7 Williams -8 Berke -9 Morgan -9 Season +/- Per Game Essegian +8.0 Gary +7.9 Williams +7.0 Worster +6.9 Berke +5.9 Hoiberg +5.8 Meah +4.1 Jacobsen +3.3 Morgan +2.1 Ulis 0.0

We made a guy's *edited* top 25!

Iowa ranks 124th in defense and is a terrible rebounding team. We need to play hard and tough like we have been, and we can win this. Close out hard. They went 15-35 from 3 against us last year. It was the most we gave up in a game all season.

Murray was 161 in BartTorvik and Drake was 69. Will be interesting to see how that changes. If nothing else, it's a big hit to potential at-large hopes Drake could have in March. They've lost to UIC and Murray State this week after going 12-0 in non-con. They were always a name popping up last year as a potential bid stealer. Hopefully we won't have to worry about hanging around the bubble in March, but if we are, this is helpful.