Hooper

I'm going to hold my breath until the reports come out, and until Nebraska's administration releases a statement, but I've already been very critical of our administration's lack of accountability with our men's programs in particular.

If we could travel back to June 1 and gave McDermott the Nebraska roster and gave Hoiberg the Creighton roster, I think the Nebraska roster wins by 20. This is perhaps the most disheartening thing. Creighton just has a way better coach than we do. It's been that way for a decade and I don't see it changing anytime soon.

Also, I think the Juco transition struggle is very real for Tominaga right now.

On the radio this morning, the talk was about how this was a culture game, more than anything. Creighton is young and talented. I don't think they're less talented than NU. They're probably more talented, but they're less experienced in some ways, too. But CU replaced nearly every top contributor from last year's team and they were the ones that handled that atmosphere better last night. That goes back to the culture that has been established there. I think that's what Coach Fred *wants* to develop here, too. He touted that as why he ran his system instead of trying to win games in year one and praised the players on the roster for laying that foundation. But Derrick Walker it he only one that was in the program at the time. And he hasn't been all that great so far this season. Hard to hold together a culture if you're turning over the roster so much. Hopefully some continuity over the next couple of years will get it there, but it's not there yet. Coach Mac has a decade of track laid. 
 
- I liked most of what I saw from Wilcher last night.
- I liked what Webster brought to the floor. I thought he brought a calming affect when things were spiraling out of control in the first half.
- Not sure I agree with Ed being ready to start. He's got some talent, but he's also still very raw. Not sure what you do in the paint. The smaller lineup was the one that brought the team back, so maybe somewhat diminished roles for the front court is something we see more of.
- I wonder where McPherson is in his development. I wonder if he gets a look with Trey going down.
- And man, you just have to feel for Trey. I was liking how the offense looked when he was running the show, too.
- Thought Bryce got a big lesson in high major basketball last night. Excited to see how he adjusts, because I think he will.
- I did like that the team fought back after being down big. I hope that serves as a marker for them that they're capable. As someone else said in the thread, I do think there's a good team somewhere on this roster. But the start of this season and night has sure been a gut punch.

Listen... I am the first to say that I am a failed, losing-record coach. However, and not to toot my own horn here, but I have taken over some pretty bad, losing programs and it didn't take more than a month to see exactly what we were working on in practice come game time. Win or lose. 

We literally look like we are uncoached. Can anyone tell me what they think our defensive principles are? What our drive and help rules are? What our rebounding rules are on offense (let alone defense...)?

We look like a team coached by a dad who watched YouTube clips of an offense he wants to run, and watched an NBA video on, "defensive rotations," (the only thing we do marginally well). 

After sleeping on it, I do not feel any better about this team or the direction of the program. In fact, I might feel a little worse.
 
During last night's presser, Hoiberg said he was still 100% confident in Alonzo Verge. This, despite a group of fans large enough to make "boos" heard in the arena feeling the same way many of us do about his hero-ball approach. There are times to stand by your beliefs but when it's obvious to even the casual fan that a change needs to be made, you now have a credibility problem. Just ask the football coach how things have worked out with his 4-year QB.
 
I hate feeling this way after 3 games, but here we are again. I don't recall being more excited about a team than I was for this year and until now, I've not questioned my belief that Fred would get this done. But as the years of failure and disappointment continue to pile up, the emotional investment gas tank hits empty pretty quickly.
 
I'll watch until I can't take the dribbling exhibitions any longer. I will hope it turns. But my expectations at this point have hit zero and my belief in Fred is trending down. 
 
 

I don't know what to say anymore.  I really don't.  This was my first year as a season ticket holder.  I was so excited.  Willing to make an hour and a half drive one way for the games.  All of that is gone already.  I feel so defeated.  If Creighton is even slightly above average and doesn't have a huge scoring drought, this is another 15-20 point BJ win.
 
Even after cutting it to a one possession game, I still didn't feel "good" about where we are at.
 
I really hope this team doesn't mentally collapse.  It could get realllllll ugly if we do and this was a "star studded" team so to speak.
 
If not this year, when?  I wasn't sold on dancing, but felt that we had a punchers chance.  Now I'm just hoping for things like winning more than we have the past few years.  I just don't know what to think.
 
This is bigger than any one guy.  So no need to bring up individuals right now.  It's a total team collapse.  The fact that we are sitting at 1-2 after three home games... all against lesser teams... tells me what I need to know right now.

Never falling for the Husker hype machine again. Star city. Pff.  When does Husker sports get fun again?

Almost a completely brand new team for McDermott, and look how well he has them moving, cutting, and passing.  Every.  Single.  Year.  It’s what I thought maybe our offense would look like this year, but it’s just more of the same for us. 

Completely agree with this. I think Hoiberg would rather not have Verge, Trey and Walker on the floor together much. Along with Bryce and Lat, who we know can both shoot the ball but neither have proven they can do it consistently at this level yet. 
 
In the game thread, before Verge entered the game, I said I thought he was our best at creating for himself AND for others. He absolutely needs to be in the game from the start to set the pace for this team. But he’d be at his best with some pure shooters around him. And those other four starters might not give him enough space to do what he does best. Wing defenders are going to collapse in on that pick n roll with Verge and Walker and our wings are going to have to knock down threes at a good clip. 
 
This is why Hoiberg keeps saying the hardest thing about his job is figuring out rotations and getting players to accept roles. I actually think Trey would be a great spark off the bench and could still play the same amount of minutes. But it’d be hard to ask a four year starter, whose freshman brother is in the starting lineup, to come off the bench. 

If he thinks that was a crazy PBA environment, then a couple of weeks from now when the place is really rocking should be a fun experience for him.

I saw a pretty intensive scrimmage recently and in that scrimmage Bruce hit all his shots and looked like a 5 star. Conversely Keon looked a bit lost. Young players in a new system. They’ll both be great players for us once they’re comfortable.

Just got home from the game, a few thoughts:
 
- this is unquestionably Verge’s team.  The crowd was sparse enough tonight that you could hear them talking on the court, and Verge is pure alpha.  Demands attention of his teammates.  Doesn’t berate them, but he is running the show.
 
- Now, the flip side of that is that this was Trey’s team last year.  I felt like Trey couldn’t get into his role tonight offensively.  He brings great defensive energy, and that leads to good things.  But when your leading returning score doesn’t officially attempt a shot, it raises some eyebrows.  If he isn’t the point, then I’m not sure he is comfortable in his new role.  
 
- the spacing with Verge & Walker was beautiful.  When we went 5 wide I expected Bryce and Trey to be able to drive and finish and they didn’t.  The guy guarding Trey took away his left and Trey struggled.  Bryce couldn’t get around the guy guarding him.
 
- I think when you look closely at pedigree, you could argue that Keon is as big a recruit as Bryce.  Keon is big enough to play the 4 and an absolute specimen.  He obviously was lights out from outside.  I feel like Fred was testing the idea of subbing out Mayen for him, and I think there is some promise there.  He is physically different and will be a nightmare on both ends of the court as he matures
 
- Wilhelm is an excellent and skilled player.  On the replay, watch how he directs people on the defensive end.  He is vocal and almost always gets to the right places on both ends of the court.  He will play plenty.
 
- it may not matter, but Andre and Lakes are much improved.  We are deep and have lots of options
 
- about Bryce…if you watched the game tonight without knowing anything about our players…he did not strike me as a highly rated guy.  Contrast it to the way all the aforementioned guys flashed.  I have no doubt he is Uber talented, but to me he needs to start small and figure out a focus…whether it is defense, 3-pt-shooting, driving, passing…whatever.  He has the talent to do it all well, but he would be served by finding a niche and excelling, and then expanding his game
 
One last comment.  I agree with the point above about the NIL.  The season has started, let’s focus now.  Some of our players looked unprepared.

So fun to see the guys back, playing in front of a crowd, and taking care of business.
 
 I’m going to say one thing that’s gonna piss people off and I’m gonna say one thing I’m 100% right on and if you disagree I think you’re wrong.
 
 I hope… we’ll put it this way… everyone on this team knows once practice starts and the games are going - all your NIL bs is done. Your pods and promotions are not a focus. And this season isn’t about 1 or 2 players. It’s about the whole team. I’ll leave it at that.
 
Second thing that I’ll be a little more black and white about: Verge is our point guard Trey is not. Hope that decision is made soon. 

I was going to mention Keon as well because seeing him out there I felt like he had the size to guard Derrick Walker and the game that Derrick Walker couldn't guard him.  It's just a matter of when with him.
 
 
 
Keisei is going to be in the rotation and it's just a matter of how many minutes.  If he can function in Sadler's team defense concept then he's a superior version of Kobe Webster. That Japanese Steph Curry stuff about his range is legit. He is legit.  Check him out on that HOL video starting at 4:02 as he holds up with Verge trying to shake and bake him and then hits two beyond NBA 3s in a row.

I will not be able to make it to the opening night. Is there any way to watch it online or does anyone know if it will be on the radio?

Pat Boone still available? 

The team was given multiple rappers to choose from and this is who the team chose.  It may not be something you like but this is not meant for you or me for that matter, its all for the players and recruits. 

I'm finding it difficult to come up with a rotation because so many players have a really high ceiling but also a really low floor.
 
-Will Keon look more like a former top 50 recruit, or like the guy who couldn't crack the rotation for a 5-14 DePaul?
-Will Keisei shoot his way into major minutes, or will he require a year to adjust to the American game?
-Is Wilcher's game well-rounded enough to play major minutes?
-Did Lakes just need a season to adjust to high level competition?
 
I think we can clearly write down Verge, McGowens (x2), Walker, and Kobe as guys that will play major minutes for us all season. That's 5 sure-fire rotation players.
 
Lat is almost assuredly in the above group too, but if he goes through a slump like last year then there will be players available to take his spot.  It's hard to see him completely falling out of the rotation though, even if he does go through an extended shooting slump.  So that's 6 in the rotation.
 
We NEED Eduardo to be good.  You just can't survive in this league with only one big body.  No offense to 210 lb Wilhelm and 205 lb Lat, but Andre is going to get every opportunity to platoon with DW at the 5.  That's 7.
 
There are some good teams that roll with a seven man rotation, but eight seems more common.  And you know that Fred is going to want to have a 3pt specialist to bring in off the bench -- either Keisei, CJ, or Lakes.  CJ seems like the safest bet since he was expected to be a major contributor for Xavier this year before he decided to transfer.  That's 8.
 
But we want to play up-tempo, right?  I could see HCFH preferring a nine-man rotation as long as he's got nine guys he trusts.  And that player probably needs to be able to play the 3/4 assuming the other backups are Kobe (1/2), CJ (2/3), and Ed (5).  So who is it?  Wilhelm, Keon, or Lakes? I'm guessing Wilhelm but not entirely confident in that.
 
So here's the rotation:
Starters - DW, Lat, BMac, TMac, Verge.
Key Subs - Kobe, Ed.
In the Rotation - CJ, Wil.
Situational - Keisei, Lakes, Keon.
Bench Mob - Quaran, Oleg.

Well let's put it this way: No matter who makes the rotation, they'll have had to earn it by beating out someone else who was probably pretty good rather than by getting there because we just simply didn't have anyone else we could put out there with a straight face.
 
So, I guess if Edwards makes it, it's a good thing because it means he's better than someone else. And if someone else makes it, it's a good thing because it means someone else is better than him.
 
Hey, look at us! We actually have competition for playing time! Crazy times, man, crazy times.

I think you're right.  I think Verge does start.
 
One of the things that occurs to me is that, over the last several seasons, certainly for as long as Fred has been our head coach, we haven't had that player that made other players around him ... better.
 
You could argue that Cam Mack did that a bit, but the players he was dropping dimes to couldn't hit their shots, so there's only so much polish you can apply to a turd.
 
But look at those clips of Verge dishing to Derrick Walker, for instance.
 
I think Derrick Walker will be a more productive player for us on offense with Alonzo Verge running point than if Dalano Banton was running point. In fact, there might not be another player on the roster who benefits as much from a Banton-for-Verge swap as Derrick Walker. Him and Andre, for sure.
 
Dalano could drive and kick to the corner or wing, but otherwise he'd be driving to the basket himself. You didn't see him drop the ball off much for someone else down low. And part of that was that just wasn't his game. I mean, if he gets it inside, he's not going to dish to the tall guy because he IS the tall guy.
 
The perimeter guys are going to get their looks because Fred's system is designed to do that. But for the big men, it takes someone to set the table for them a bit. And Verge is more of a guy who can do that compared to Banton. And the really nice thing for us is that both Derrick (60% FG%) and Andre (64.7% FG%) are both players who can take advantage.
 
I'd look for Derrick's 4.4 attempts per game to go up. It might just be one additional attempt per half. But if he makes 60% of those additional attempts, he can pretty easily go from just under 6 points per game to just over 8. And that's enough from our big man when you have guys all over the floor who can stroke it from deep, which we oughta have this year.

Lotta benefits to being a D1 Bball player... giggity giggity

The roster appears to be set now. Unlike the previous two seasons, the info on our Lindy's magazine page may actually give outsiders a glimpse of what our team will look like. I don't think we'll be ranked dead last in every Big Ten preseason poll this year. Below is the ppg, rpg and apg of each player in the 2020-21 season. We'll have 6 or 7 guards/wings competing for playing time in the backcourt and 4 or 5 guys in the frouncourt. There's only 200 total minutes to go around per game and we know Hoiberg likes to whittle down the regular rotation to 7-9 guys eventually. I have no idea how it will shake out, but in my opinion this will be the starting five to begin the season. 
 
G – Alonzo Verge  6-3    Sr.                     14.0       3.9       3.8  (Arizona St)
G – Trey McGowens  6-4    Jr.                 10.7       3.9       2.3
G – Bryce McGowens  6-6    Fr.              Five star freshman
F – Lat Mayen  6-9    Jr.                           8.6         4.5       0.6
F – Derrick Walker  6-8    Jr.                    5.9          4.8       1.6
 
G – Kobe Webster  6-0    Sr.                     8.1        1.7      1.3
G – CJ Wilcher  6-5    Fr.                           3.3       1.1       0.3  (Xavier)   Four star in 2020 class
G/F – Keon Edwards  6-7    Fr.                 Four star in 2020 class
F – Wilhelm Breidenbach  6-10    Fr.        Four star freshman
C – Eduardo Andre  6-10    Fr.                  2.7        2.2      0.5
 
G – Keisei Tominaga  6-2    Soph.           JUCO All-American
G – Quaran McPherson  6-4    Fr.           Three star freshman
F – Trevor Lakes  6-7    Sr.                         3.2         1.1     0.4
C – Oleg Kojenets  7-0    Fr.                     Three star freshman

Yeah, we sucked last year.
 
But think about this: How much difference is there between a guy who's on the PGA tour, and the best golfer out there who isn't quite good enough to get paid to golf?
 
Probably less than you'd think.
 
The guy on tour might be a longer hitter, but might not be. Probably is. Probably hits slightly more fairways. Slightly. And, as a result, slightly more greens in regulation. And when he hits the green, he's probably just a tiny bit closer to the pin with a marginally shorter putt that he's just a little more likely to make. He'll be slightly better at sand saves. Slightly better at getting up and down from off the green.
 
And when you add up all those slightly betters and slightly closers, you're probably looking at maybe a stroke +/- per round difference between a guy who's just not quite good enough to get paid to play golf and a guy who gets paid millions on the PGA tour.
 
Admittedly, I'm grasping at straws looking for reasons to start chugging the Kool-Aid that @kldm64 and some others tell us they've been drinking. And this is kind of what I've hit on.
 
Always seemed like team shooting can be kind of a momentum thing.
 
I remember back when Kimani Ffriend was on the team, and he was a generally atrocious FT shooter. If he got to the line first and missed, it seemed like everyone else on the team would follow suit and even the guys who were solid FT shooters would catch Kimani's brick disease. But then there were those magical nights when Kimani would draw the first foul, go to the line and make them both, and the team seemed like they'd catch fire.
 
Someone could probably do a doctoral dissertation on this phenomenon and whether it exists and, if so, why. Maybe someone already has. But, anecdotally speaking, it looks to me like it does. And, last year, if Yvan was one of the first guys to get fouled, he was almost certain to miss his attempts, and it seemed like that set the tone.
 
We didn't shoot a lot of FTs last year. And we missed way too many of the FTs we shot. We had the 2nd worst percentage in the league and, not surprisingly, the second fewest made FTs.
 
The guys who are likely going to have the ball in their hands this year are going to be better FT shooters on balance. Gone is Yvan with his sub-40% FT shooting accuracy. Yeah, he didn't have a lot of attempts, but our 3 most prolific FT shooters were all under 70%, and two of them, Dalano and Teddy, are no longer with us. We've replaced them with a guy in Alonzo Verge who shot 81% last season and has a knack for getting to the line. Bryce, I'm betting, is also a good FT shooter. And those are guys who will likely have the ball in their hands a lot for us this coming season.
 
Listen, guys: If we move the needle on FT shooting from a bad 64% to just a mediocre 72% -- which I think is an extremely realistic possibility -- that's an additional roughly point-and-a-half per game over last year even if we don't attempt any more FTs than we did a year ago. And that's just the FT shooting. Fairways hit, you might say.
 
Another area -- and I've talked about this before -- is 3pt%. Last year was not good. We were 10th in the league in 3pt% at .333.
 
But, if you took our season player stats from last year and sorted them by 3pt% and drew a line at 33%, you'd notice that everyone below that line is gone except for Derrick Walker who missed his only attempt and doesn't really count. And everyone above that line is back except for Teddy Allen who had other issues (and I totally agree with @basketballjones' assessment a few months back that his game isn't good enough overall to be a hero-ball player on a good team -- addition by subtraction, I hate to say.)
 
That fact ALONE should raise our team 3pt% into the top half of the conference at least. But add to that the fact we've brought in some guys like Bryce and CJ and Keon and even Wilhelm who I expect will come in and give us even more perimeter firepower. I would not be shocked if we're top 6 in the league next year in 3pt% offense. Maybe even top 5. A 2% improvement would have moved us into the top half of the league. A 3% improvement and we'd have been 5th. We made 684 points on 228 made 3s last year. If we boost that by just 2% -- again, extremely doable -- we'd have scored 723 points on 241 made 3s. That's another roughly point-and-a-half per game.
 
Now, we're not only in the fairway, but we're hitting wedge in instead of a 7-iron. Still not quite on tour, though.
 
Turnovers. We were worst in the conference last year with 14.1 turnovers per game. Our turnover margin was 10th, meaning we were at least turning other teams over, too. But every turnover we commit is a shot attempt we don't get to take and, at 42%, which is a) bad, b) our FG% from last year, and c) likely to improve this year, every turnover costs us roughly a point on the scoreboard.
 
Now, you won't eliminate all turnovers. But, to continue the golf analogy, on the PGA tour, they calculate strokes lost or gained against the field for various aspects of play, sand saves, for instance. The median number of turnovers in the Big Ten last year was 11.4. That means we're losing 2.7 shots against the field just from turnovers. And at our very poor effective FG% from last year of 48.9%, that means that each turnover above 11.4 per game was .978 of a point lost against the field (as opposed to gained against the field for each turnover fewer than 11.4 per game.) In other words, at 14.1 turnovers, we lost 2.6 points PER GAME against the field.
 
I don't know what the magic is for cutting down turnovers, but one thing I know for sure is that Shamiel Stevenson won't be plowing into defenders on fast-break opportunities where the likelihood of a bucket scored would be way above average. And, when the ball isn't stopping in one particular person's hands, maybe the team will be more in synch. And clean up some things here and some things there and just get this team to AVERAGE, and all of a sudden, we've gained another couple of points per game against the field.
 
And, you know, now you start to add those things together, simple things, small things, doable things, and we've gained roughly 5 and-a-half ppg against the field. That's points per game. Against the field.
 
Now, does that matter? Because we lost a lot of games by way more than 5.5 points. Well, considering that we scored 70.0 ppg on average and gave up 74.2 ppg on average, for an average scoring margin of -4.2 ppg, finding 5.5 extra ppg would be kind of a big deal.
 
Here's something else to think about: Our opponent's FT% was nearly tops in the league. Some of that has to do with being the team behind in the closing minutes and having to be the team that tries to foul to stop the clock, when opposing teams make sure to get the ball in the hands of their best FT shooters. If you look at league statistics, the good teams tended to have lower opponent FT%. The only good team in the league whose opponents shot well from the line was Michigan. Give us some more games where we're in the lead, or at least close enough that we don't have to foul to stop the clock, and our opponent FT% will probably go down.
 
Just some things to think about. A little here and a little there and it could make for a fairly big W/L swing.

Coach Hoiberg was on Sports Nightly tonight - I was in the car, so going from memory:
 
Guys have about one more week of summer workouts before they send them home for a couple of weeks before school starts First player he brought up (unsolicited) was Breidenbach (somewhat surprisingly) - since being cleared after the injury, he's been very impressive Then he talked about B McGowens - says he just takes over some of the workouts/scrimmages - hit 4 or 5 3s in a row today in practice Then brought up T McGowens and how he's showing great leadership and he's focused on finding the hot hand, like with Bryce in practice today Finally mentioned Verge and how great he's been since arriving - he's a huge addition with losing Banton so late to the draft When asked about Tominaga at the Olympics, he said how great it's been to see him play so well against much older and more seasoned players - and how they're excited to get him on campus and in their offense - because teams will have to guard him all over the floor, it's really going to open things up for everyone else, and they envision a big role for him There will be media availability for players tomorrow - some of the players who didn't speak last week should be available this time
 
Also caught Buzzy on 93.7 earlier today - he also brought up Breidenbach, talked about how impressive he's been and how hard he's working - and that he will play some 4 and some 5 this season - you can just hear it in the coaches' voices how much they like him - my guess is they knew he was good when they recruited him, but now that he's healthy and they can see him up close, it feels like they're getting far more than they expected.