HuskerActuary

One more to add. We want Kansas State to lose at BYU by less than five points, if possible. A win vaults them into bubble territory. A big loss will hurt their NET. They are currently #78 and we want them to be in the top 75. They are 12 point underdogs on BartTorvik with a 12% chance of winning. Game is at 9:00pm

Speak for yourself.... Those were dark days for me and I'm not forgetting anytime soon

Tomorrow is loaded with tournament-impacting games. Other than our game: It hurts to say this, but maybe the most important game of the day is for Creighton to beat Xavier because they probably jump us if they were to beat Creighton. Plus, we played Creighton. 11:30am Another very important game is for Gonzaga to lose to Kentucky, which is the more likely outcome. 3:00pm Arizona plays at Colorado. If Colorado wins, they are favored to make the tournament. If they lose, they are favored to miss it. Huge game. 9:00pm Another rooting interest is for Tennessee to beat Texas A&M, who is in the tourney right now but not by much. 7:00pm Really need Marquette to take care of business hosting St. John's. 5:00pm Oregon hosts Washington State and is favored to win. We need that to happen as Wazzu is an 11 seed on BM. 4:00pm Providence plays Butler. Two bubble teams. Not sure who to root for - whoever loses, we want to keep losing thereafter. 1:00pm There are tons more with moderate impacts but those look like the big ones to me. Apologies if I made any mistakes, I did this flipping between browser tabs on my phone before the zzzz's kick in

Easily the most important game of the day did not go our way. Nevada now squarely on the bubble.

Scanning brackets manually, looks like we will probably drop to a 10 seed on Bracket Matrix when it next updates. Of course, last night wasn't about what we could lose with a loss, it was what we could have gained with a win.

Wazzu / Oregon St feels like the most important game. Some others I saw... Root for Arizona St over Colorado. While unlikely, CU probably misses the tournament with a loss Root for Arizona over Utah, who could still possibly miss the tournament with a loss, but is essentially a lock with a win Root for Washington over Oregon. While both are teams currently on the outside looking in, Oregon is closer. Root for Temple over Memphis. Memphis has some life, but not a lot. Choke them out. edit: Looks like hskr4life beat me by about ten seconds

Top 30, isn't it?

I need some good news.... How have other bubble teams fared tonight?

I'm going to avoid the doing the research myself and piggyback off the wonderful members of this board who have been tracking closely... what is the deal with Michigan State? Looks like they are a possible bubble team and also in danger of falling out of Quad 1 status for us. Do we want them to win to keep Quad 1, or want them to lose to go below us in the bubble pecking order? Odd team, with a good NET ranking but not looking so hot resume-wise.

Just watched the clip, and this isn't the right takeaway.

I am not sure what you are implying. Spreads take into account home court, so you would expect a record near 0.500.

Between Gary and Rice, that's an unwelcome availability report. Dang

Purdue shot 29-46 from the line. That's not an impressive percentage. It beats 8-30 though ... I can at least laugh about that now.

I've always had a fear that we would get our first win in the play-in round. I don't want it to happen that way! Unless we win in the first round, too.

Looks like a pretty underwhelming hire for Iowa

Yeah but if we win 21 in the regular season, we are most likely a 5 or 6 seed and playing a double-digit seed in our first conference tournament game (5 plays winner of 12/13, 6 plays winner of 11/14). And if we lose to that team, that's a clunker to end it - I would not be comfortable in that scenario.

More than likely, not in. 22 feels like the right magic number to me when factoring in the Big Ten Tournament. Maybe 21 depending on who we would beat.

HuskerFever's graph got me thinking.... did you know that if you graph our win percentage under Fred Hoiberg by season, you can fit a polynomial trendline to it with an R^2 of 0.9961.... this means we are headed toward a 105% win percentage in 2024-25, I can't wait

If on Teamcast you give us wins for our 8 easiest games left and losses for the other 6, we are the first team out. That would be 20-11. Switching one of those to a win (21-10), we would be the last 10 seed. That feels optimistic to me - I still think we need 21 regular season wins + at least one meaningful conference tournament win to have a shot.

This. The projections don't assume binary outcomes.

Generally speaking, this is not good for us. All or almost all of those ranked teams that lost will still make the NCAA Tournament. All of those unranked teams that won now have a good or great Quad 1 win. Some of those teams will not be in bubble contention, but without checking, I would guess that most are.

Took a nose-dive in the NET. #42 to #54.

Margin of victory doesn't just "factor in" on KenPom... it's all that matters. A 1-point win is only slightly better than a 1-point loss. So who we have beaten and who we have lost to don't matter much without knowing the margins. KenPom isn't a tool to compare NCAA Tournament resumes, it's a tool to use as much data as is available to allow for comparing of teams and estimate who is the better/best team on a neutral court.

Sure, but we have better options to take those shots. I hope he lights it up tonight and I'm wrong!

Mast is 14-46 on the year. That's 30%. My vote is he stops taking them altogether unless the shot clock is < 5.