unelinstu's postgame chatter: vol 15, ed 19: Ohio State

Bando couldn't buy a basket the entire game but boy those two steals and buckets at the end were timely

OSU only dropped 4 spots to #28 in the NET rankings, so still a quad 1 win. Creighton is #20. Iowa #35. We still have the #1 SOS and that will only get bolstered as we keep playing conference games. Have another quad 1 opportunity at Penn State on Saturday. 

Notes from UNL

Nebraska Post-Game Notes vs. Ohio State

• Nebraska scored 42 points in the second half. The 42 points marked the Huskers’ highest-scoring half in a Big Ten game this season and highest scoring half in conference play since scoring 43 in the first half at Ohio State on March 1, 2022.
• Nebraska held Ohio State to a season-low 60 points (previous low was 64 at Rutgers). The Buckeyes were also held to a season-low 22 points in the first half.  Nebraska held OSU to .882 points per possession tonight as the Buckeyes entered the game sixth nationally in offensive efficiency.
• The Huskers also held Ohio State to 35.7 percent from the field. The Buckeyes entered the game shooting 47 percent on the season. OSU is the eighth Husker opponent held to 40 percent or lower shooting. 
• Nebraska outscored Ohio State 32-16 in the paint. The Huskers have either led or been tied in points in the paint in each of the last eight games.
• Sam Griesel finished with 15 points, his 10th double-digit scoring effort of the season. Griesel scored 10 of is 15 points in the second half, when he was 2-of-4 from the field and 5-of-5 from the free throw line.
• Making his second start of the season, Keisei Tominaga finished with 11 points, his 10th double-digit effort of the season.
• Derrick Walker totaled 10 rebounds before fouling out, his fourth game with 10 or more rebounds this season and eighth of his career.
• Denim Dawson set a career high with eight rebounds, eclipsing his previous career high of three. Dawson also scored seven points, one shy of his career high, in a career high 30 minutes.
• Nebraska out-rebounded Ohio State, 39-38, as the Buckeyes entered the game 28^th nationally in rebounding margin at +6.2 per game.
• With the victory, Nebraska improved to 10-9 on the season, matching last season’s win total.
• Nebraska snapped OSU’s five-game win streak in Lincoln, picking up the first home win in the series since 2014. It also marked the first time NU has beaten Ohio State in consecutive meetings, dating back to the Huskers’ win in Columbus last March.

2 hours ago, Swan88 said:

 

Yeah, I was directly in line and was going ape poop because my favorite ref blew the original call.  Glad they did the right thing on replay.

1 hour ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

 

Out of curiosity, is this still a possibility?  Has NU filed an appeal or some sort of paperwork for this?  

No idea if it's possible or likely, but I don't believe he filing process comes until after his regular eligibility expires.

2 hours ago, Swan88 said:

 

Pretty crafty!

1 hour ago, kldm64 said:

 

Totally agree on the crowd as it was a very small crowd but they were louder and more into the game than sometimes when we have 10,000 people there.  Absolutely fun game to be at.  

The fans that were there were true fans and were fully invested.  I am not calling out any of our other fans by any means.  The forecast was dismal and it could have been deadly.  But those who came were all in and it showed.

1 minute ago, uneblinstu said:

No idea if it's possible or likely, but I don't believe he filing process comes until after his regular eligibility expires.

What are the rules? Isn't it like the player had to play fewer than 1/3 of the team's total games and all in the first half of the season? If that's the case, then yes, he would be eligible for a medical redshirt, because we played in 32 games last season and Wilhelm logged minutes in only 10 of them. I believe those are the rules, so I believe @NUdiehard is correct.

9 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

No idea if it's possible or likely, but I don't believe he filing process comes until after his regular eligibility expires.

I think that's how it used to be, but I thought they changed that a handful of years ago.

I very well could be wrong on that.

1 hour ago, millerhusker said:

OSU only dropped 4 spots to #28 in the NET rankings, so still a quad 1 win. Creighton is #20. Iowa #35. We still have the #1 SOS and that will only get bolstered as we keep playing conference games. Have another quad 1 opportunity at Penn State on Saturday. 

I think we can make the NIT if we hold serve at home and steal one on the road. But I think that's asking a lot with Gary out. And the B1G did itself no favors this year with Quad 1 opportunities at home. Ohio State was our last home game Quad 1 opportunity as of today, and if we're being honest they'll probably drop out of the top 30 the way they're trending. The thing going against us most this year though is metrics. Our offensive woes are killing us on kenpom. 

12 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

I think we can make the NIT if we hold serve at home and steal one on the road.

We need to win 6 more regular season games to get to NIT eligibility, and as of right now according to KenPom we have 6 games remaining on our schedule that are listed as 45% chance to win or better for us.  (basically toss-ups or games we should win, all at home).

2023 Schedule 

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

As a point of reference, Ohio State was a 35% win probability for us, @Minnesota was 37% and Iowa was 42%.

Now, if we manage to win all 6 of those, and probably get one or two in the BTT, I would say we're in NIT lock territory.  Probably need to make it to 18 or 19 regular season wins to even think about NCAA bubble stuff.

14 hours ago, uneblinstu said:

Was also interesting to see freshmen Oleg, Dawson & Lawrence and sophomore Wilcher the group to make an important push late in the game.

I'm wondering if this changes the narrative at all that there is no hope for next year if Fred is retained because we lose Sam, Derrick, & Bando. If those 3 young guys continue to improve, add a healthy Gary & Keita, plus Keisei, Wil, Lloyd, and whatever newcomers we bring in, and there isn't any reason we couldn't have a competitive team next year.  

3 minutes ago, HuscurAdam said:

 

I'm wondering if this changes the narrative at all that there is no hope for next year if Fred is retained because we lose Sam, Derrick, & Bando. If those 3 young guys continue to improve, add a healthy Gary & Keita, plus Keisei, Wil, Lloyd, and whatever newcomers we bring in, and there isn't any reason we couldn't have a competitive team next year.  

I agree. If Lloyd stays and they go get a PG who can shoot and a stretch 4 I would have reason to believe. They must continue the defensive mentality they have adopted this year obviously.

9 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

We need to win 6 more regular season games to get to NIT eligibility, and as of right now according to KenPom we have 6 games remaining on our schedule that are listed as 45% chance to win or better for us.  (basically toss-ups or games we should win, all at home).

2023 Schedule 

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date	Rk	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Mon Nov 7	108	309	Maine	W, 79-66	70		Home	1-0
Thu Nov 10	114	302	Nebraska Omaha	W, 75-61	69		Home	2-0
Thu Nov 17	111	61	St. John's	L, 70-50	71		Away	2-1
Sun Nov 20	115	335	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W, 82-58	64		Home	3-1
Thu Nov 24	110	38	Oklahoma	L, 69-56	60		Neutral	3-2
Fri Nov 25	118	37	Memphis	L, 73-61	66		Neutral	3-3
Sun Nov 27	120	154	Florida St.	W, 75-58	71		Neutral	4-3
Wed Nov 30	111	195	Boston College	W, 88-67	63		Home	5-3
Sun Dec 4	95	14	Creighton	W, 63-53	72		Away	6-3
Wed Dec 7	83	28	Indiana	L, 81-65	72		Away	6-4	0-1
Sat Dec 10	81	5	Purdue	L, 65-62	66	OT	Home	6-5	0-2
Sat Dec 17	80	26	Kansas St.	L, 71-56	71		Semi-Away	6-6
Tue Dec 20	84	201	Queens	W, 75-65	73		Home	7-6
Thu Dec 29	89	30	Iowa	W, 66-50	66		Home	8-6	1-2
Tue Jan 3	82	40	Michigan St.	L, 74-56	64		Away	8-7	1-3
Sat Jan 7	84	187	Minnesota	W, 81-79	69	OT	Away	9-7	2-3
Tue Jan 10	84	19	Illinois	L, 76-50	67		Home	9-8	2-4
Fri Jan 13	92	5	Purdue	L, 73-55	61		Away	9-9	2-5
Wed Jan 18	94	21	Ohio St.	W, 63-60	72		Home	10-9	3-5
Sat Jan 21		39	Penn St.	L, 69-61	64	23%	Away		×
Tue Jan 24		57	Northwestern	L, 63-62	65	48%	Home		×
Sat Jan 28		43	Maryland	L, 68-60	66	24%	Away		×
Tue Jan 31		19	Illinois	L, 72-62	68	17%	Away		×
Sun Feb 5		39	Penn St.	L, 66-65	64	45%	Home		×
Wed Feb 8		53	Michigan	L, 72-64	67	25%	Away		×
Sat Feb 11		67	Wisconsin	W, 60-59	63	51%	Home		×
Tue Feb 14		16	Rutgers	L, 65-54	65	16%	Away		×
Sun Feb 19		43	Maryland	L, 65-64	66	45%	Home		×
Sat Feb 25		187	Minnesota	W, 67-58	64	79%	Home		×
Tue Feb 28		40	Michigan St.	L, 63-62	64	45%	Home		×
Sun Mar 5		30	Iowa	L, 76-67	68	20%	Away		×
Projected record:								14-17	7-13

 

As a point of reference, Ohio State was a 35% win probability for us, @Minnesota was 37% and Iowa was 42%.

 

Now, if we manage to win all 6 of those, and probably get one or two in the BTT, I would say we're in NIT lock territory.  Probably need to make it to 18 or 19 regular season wins to even think about NCAA bubble stuff.

 

6 more wins likely adds 5 wins in the quad 1 and 2 categories assuming we beat Minnesota at home. 8 quad 1/2 wins seems like bubble territory, no?

47 minutes ago, MichHusker said:

6 more wins likely adds 5 wins in the quad 1 and 2 categories assuming we beat Minnesota at home. 8 quad 1/2 wins seems like bubble territory, no?

If we can't sniff the NCAA bubble with 22 wins in 2018, I find it extremely unlikely we'll do it with 16 this year.  Our KenPom ranking in 2018 was right around #50 by the end of the regular season that year and was still higher than we will likely achieve with anything less than about 20 wins this year (currently #92).

1 hour ago, HuscurAdam said:

 

I'm wondering if this changes the narrative at all that there is no hope for next year if Fred is retained because we lose Sam, Derrick, & Bando. If those 3 young guys continue to improve, add a healthy Gary & Keita, plus Keisei, Wil, Lloyd, and whatever newcomers we bring in, and there isn't any reason we couldn't have a competitive team next year.  

Dawson's player archetype is a spitting image of Gary. Just needs the reps and experience. He got starter's minutes last night and his production and impact was that of Gary. He also has the same mindset, which is key. There's no reason Lawrence can't be a better version of Bandoumel in 2 years. Lawrence is just more natural and fluid in every offensive aspect. Bandoumel is an elite perimeter defender. Lawrence has been very impressive as a freshman defending Big Ten guards. 

Is there any reason Lloyd can't eventually be a better version of Sam as a big guard? Not from a talent perspective. But there's a lot more that goes into it, so this remains to be seen. I'm excited to see Quaran get on the court. He's a tough minded guard that I think we'll love. 

We don't have another Derrick Walker, that's for sure. First priority when the seasons ends is to get Grant Nelson to Lincoln. Hopefully Sam is already putting in a good word for us. 

46 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

If we can't sniff the NCAA bubble with 22 wins in 2018, I find it extremely unlikely we'll do it with 16 this year.  Our KenPom ranking in 2018 was right around #50 by the end of the regular season that year and was still higher than we will likely achieve with anything less than about 20 wins this year (currently #92).

What's crazy is that team played 20 Q3/4 games that year. We are on pace to have around 8 or 9 of those. Plus we already have the same amount of of Q 1/2 wins. Anything outside of hosting minnesota would be a quality win. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out IF we can even get to that point

53 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

If we can't sniff the NCAA bubble with 22 wins in 2018, I find it extremely unlikely we'll do it with 16 this year.  

Committee leadership is different this year.

2018 was an outlier: the first time in many decades that a B1G team with Nebraska's record did NOT make the Tournament.

3 minutes ago, Swan88 said:

Committee leadership is different this year.

2018 was an outlier: the first time in many decades that a B1G team with Nebraska's record did NOT make the Tournament.

The strength of the B1G metric wise is closer to last year, where 17-14 Michigan got a dancing card. IF we finished our regular season 7-5 to get to 17-14, I'm guessing we would be showing up on a lot of bubble lists.

10 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

The strength of the B1G metric wise is closer to last year, where 17-14 Michigan got a dancing card. IF we finished our regular season 7-5 to get to 17-14, I'm guessing we would be showing up on a lot of bubble lists.

Our ratings won't be good enough to get in with 17 wins, but you're right we'd be at least in consideration on the bubble. We'd pry have to get to 20 to be in. 

6 hours ago, jimmykc said:

TV analysts were spot on with this play. Fortunately, the referees did not blow the replay either. Not sure I can remember a cannier defensive play at a more critical time. 

I had about 50/50 odds that The Three Stooges would not overturn the call even though the video evidence was airtight.

1 hour ago, hhcmatt said:

 

I'm absolutely gobsmacked that it was Dick with Ears standing 5 feet from the play, staring right at the players involved, who failed to blow the whistle. 

Not really.

1 minute ago, NUtball said:

I'm absolutely gobsmacked that it was Dick with Ears standing 5 feet from the play, staring right at the players involved, who failed to blow the whistle. 

 

Not really.

This is the Big 10 so I want this type of action to be a no-call and next time Dawson better be ready for a block out.