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    B1G Tourney Bracket Projector

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    Sigh - I miss the days of the Big XII projection web site, where you could project every game and see a tournament bracket. I haven't found anything similar for the Big Ten unfortunately.

     

    So here's a poor replication of that, with the B1G tournament projections according to current standings and then RPIForecast.com. 

     

    If RPI Forecast is to be believed, it appears Nebraska is almost certainly locked into the 6 seed. NU is projected to go 2-3 down the stretch and finish at 9-9. Although I think they'll do better than that, it looks like to catch any of the top five teams, NU would likely have to sweep its final 5 games to get to 12-6. Outside of MSU the top teams have pretty favorable schedules in the final 2 weeks.

     

    Even if NU gets to 11-7, it's still likely looking at the 6 seed, unless OSU would maybe lose its final game to MSU, and NU could then perhaps get to the 5 seed, if MSU wins the league. Or NU would need to beat Wisky and then have the Badgers suffer a major upset in one of their three remaining games, which likely would make NU the 5 seed.

     

    If somehow NU finishes with 5 more wins and ends up in a four-way tie with OSU, Iowa, and Wisky, NU could get as high as the 4 seed, but that requires a lot of games to fall correctly. 

     

    Current standings through 2/22:

     

    1. 11-3 Mich St
    2. 10-3 Michigan
    3.   9-5 Wisconsin
    4.   8-5 Iowa
    5.   9-6 Ohio St
    6.   7-6 Nebraska
    7.   6-9 Minnesota
    8.   5-8 Purdue (1-0 vs Ind)
    9.   5-8 Indiana (0-1 vs Pur)
    10.   5-10 N’western
    11.   4-10 Illinois (2-0 vs PSU)
    12.   4-10 Penn St (0-2 vs Ill)

    Bracket if tourney “began today”:

     

    • 11 AM - 9/Indiana vs 8/Purdue … Winner plays 1/Mich St
    • 1:30 PM - 12/Penn St vs 5/Ohio St … Winner plays 4/Iowa
    • 5:30 PM - 10/N’western vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Michigan
    • 8 PM - 11/Illinois vs 6/NEBRASKA … Winner plays 3/Wisconsin

     

    Projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com:

     

    1. 15-3 Michigan
    2. 13-5 Wisconsin (1-0 vs MSU)
    3. 13-5 Mich St (0-1 vs Wis)
    4. 12-6 Iowa (1-1 vs OSU) … (1-1 vs Mich)
    5. 12-6 Ohio St (1-1 vs Iowa) … (0-1 vs Mich)
    6.   9-9 Nebraska
    7.   7-11 Minnesota
    8.   6-12 Purdue (2-1 vs NW/Ind)
    9.   6-12 N’western (2-2 vs Pur/Ind)
    10.   6-12 Indiana (1-2 vs Pur/NW)
    11.   5-13 Illinois
    12.   4-14 Penn St

     

    Bracket projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com:

     

    • 11 AM - 9/N’western vs 8/Purdue … Winner plays 1/Michigan
    • 1:30 PM - 12/Penn St vs 5/Ohio St … Winner plays 4/Iowa
    • 5:30 PM - 10/Indiana vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Wisconsin
    • 8 PM - 11/Illinois vs 6/NEBRASKA … Winner plays 3/Mich St

     

     

    Remaining games/tie-breaker options:

     

    ("W or L" is a game projected by RPIForecast as 7 pts or more margin, "close W or L" is projected as a 2.5 pt to 6.5 pt margin, "toss-up W or L" is projected as 1 pt or 2 pt margin)

     

    • PENN STATE – projected 4-14

    Ohio St (L)

    Wisconsin (L)

    At Northwestern (toss-up / L)

    At Minnesota (L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: OSU*

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Mich, Iowa, MSU (0-2), Ill (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Wis* (0-0), NW* (0-0), Neb, Pur, Ind

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • ILLINOIS – projected 5-13

    Nebraska (close W)

    At Mich St (L)

    Michigan (close L)

    At Iowa (L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Minn, PSU (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, MSU*, Iowa*, NW, Pur, Wis (0-2), OSU (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Mich* (0-0), Ind

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • INDIANA – projected 6-12

    At Wisconsin (L)

    Ohio St (close L)

    Nebraska (close W)

    At Michigan (L)

    Iowa (close L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Wis*

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, Minn, Pur, MSU (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Iowa* (0-0), OSU* (0-0), Ill, PSU, NW

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • NORTHWESTERN – projected 6-12

    At Nebraska (L)

    Penn St (toss-up / W)

    At Purdue (close L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Pur*, Ill

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, OSU, Mich, Iowa (0-2), MSU (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: PSU* (0-0), Wis, Minn, Ind

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • PURDUE – projected 6-12

    At Nebraska (close L)

    Michigan (L)

    At Iowa (L)

    At Wisconsin (L)

    Northwestern (close W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Neb*, Ind, Ill

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Wis*, NW*, MSU, OSU (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Iowa* (0-0), Minn, PSU

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • MINNESOTA – projected 7-11

    Iowa (close L)

    At Michigan (L)

    Penn St (W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: PSU*, Ind

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Iowa*, Mich*, Neb, Ill, MSU

    Tied 1-1 season series: Wis, OSU, Pur, NW

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • NEBRASKA – projected 9-9

    Purdue (close W)

    At Illinois (close L)

    N’western (W)

    At Indiana (close L)

    Wisconsin (close L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: NW*, Ind*, Ill*, MSU, Minn

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Iowa, Pur*, Mich (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Wis* (0-0), OSU, PSU

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • OHIO STATE – projected 12-6

    At Penn St (W)

    At Indiana (close W)

    Michigan St (close W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Wis, NW, Pur (2-0), Ill (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, PSU*, Mich

    Tied 1-1 season series: Ind* (0-0), Iowa, Neb, Minn

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • IOWA – projected 12-6

    At Minnesota (close W)

    Purdue (W)

    At Mich St (toss-up / L)

    Illinois (W)

    At Indiana (close W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Ill*, Neb, PSU, NW (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, Wis (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Pur* (0-0), Ind* (0-0), Mich, OSU

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • WISCONSIN – projected 13-5

    Indiana (W)

    At Penn St (W)

    Purdue (W)

    At Nebraska (close W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Pur*, MSU, Iowa (2-0), Ill (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind*, OSU 

    Tied season series: Neb* (0-0), PSU* (0-0), Mich, Minn, NW

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • MICHIGAN STATE – projected 13-5

    At Michigan (close L)

    Illinois (W)

    Iowa (toss-up / W)

    At Ohio St (close L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Iowa*, OSU*, Ill*, Minn, Pur, NW (2-0), Ind (2-0), PSU (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Neb, Wis

    Tied season series: N/A

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    • MICHIGAN – projected 15-3

    Mich St (close W)

    At Purdue (W)

    Minnesota (W)

    At Illinois (close W)

    Indiana (W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: MSU*, Minn*, Pur*, NW, PSU, OSU, Neb (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind*

    Tied season series: Ill* (0-0), Iowa, Wis

    *Game remaining:

     

     

    Thanks for the breakdown.  I really hope we don't get slotted to play Illinois for the third time.  Give me Northwestern or PSU and Ill be happy. 

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    Sigh - I miss the days of the Big XII projection web site, where you could project every game and see a tournament bracket. I haven't found anything similar for the Big Ten unfortunately.

     

    What was the URL of that site?

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    Sigh - I miss the days of the Big XII projection web site, where you could project every game and see a tournament bracket. I haven't found anything similar for the Big Ten unfortunately.

     

    What was the URL of that site?

     

     

    http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb

     

    Thanks - I took it out of my bookmarks after we left the Big XII. I did some searching last night, but couldn't find it again. It's a great site/idea.

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    Sunday 2/23's two results change the team on top of the B1G standings, but they don't really change the end of season bracket projections, as both game results went exactly as expected by RPI Forecast. NU looking very good for at least a #6 seed in B1G Tourney. To go higher, just need to keep winning & get a little help.

     

    EDIT: Update on 2/24 with latest info from RPI Forecast - some discrepancies now in the "expected Conf record" listed at the site versus what the projected margin of victory is in each game listed at the site. Both NU and PSU picked up a projected win in the expected conf record and Mich, OSU, and Wisky picked up a projected loss, but the margin of victory listings for each team doesn't reflect these changes. Also the makeup Iowa-Indiana game for Thursday is not listed at all, causing another discrepancy. So I listed the projected record based on the individual game margin of victory first followed by the expected conf record for the teams this discrepancy affects.

     

    Looks like the discrepancy occurs because the win probability percentage is high enough that an extra win is likely, even though the individual projected margin of victory doesn't reflect it. So in Nebraska's case, the site has us losing to Ill, Ind, and Wis in terms of projected margin of victory/loss, but because the combined win probability percentages for the three games are high enough (41%, 38%, and 30%), the probabilities show that NU should win one of those three games, hence the discrepancy. Gotta love statistics.  ;) So I'll just keep listing both numbers whenever a discrepancy occurs.

     

     

     

    Current standings through 2/23:

    1. 11-3 Michigan
    2. 11-4 Mich St
    3.   9-5 Wisconsin
    4.   8-5 Iowa
    5.   9-6 Ohio St
    6.   8-6 NEBRASKA
    7.   6-9 Minnesota
    8.   5-8 Indiana 
    9.   5-9 Purdue 
    10.   5-10 N’western
    11.   4-10 Illinois (2-0 vs PSU)
    12.   4-10 Penn St (0-2 vs Ill)

    Bracket if tourney “began today”:

    • 11 AM - 9/Purdue vs 8/Indiana … Winner plays 1/Mich
    • 1:30 PM - 12/Penn St vs 5/Ohio St … Winner plays 4/Iowa
    • 5:30 PM - 10/N’western vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Mich St
    • 8 PM - 11/Illinois vs 6/NEBRASKA … Winner plays 3/Wisconsin

    Projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com (as of 2/24):

    1. 15-3 / 14-4 Michigan
    2. 13-5 / 12-6 Wisconsin (1-0 vs MSU)
    3. 13-5 Mich St (0-1 vs Wis)
    4. 12-6 / 11-6 Iowa (1-1 vs OSU) … (1-1 vs Mich)
    5. 12-6 / 11-7 Ohio St (1-1 vs Iowa) … (0-1 vs Mich)
    6.   9-9 / 10-8 NEBRASKA
    7.   7-11 Minnesota
    8.   6-12 Purdue (2-1 vs NW/Ind)
    9.   6-12 N’western (2-2 vs Pur/Ind)
    10.   6-12 / 6-11 Indiana (1-2 vs Pur/NW)
    11.   5-13 Illinois
    12.   4-14 / 5-13 Penn St

    Bracket projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com:

    • 11 AM - 9/N’western vs 8/Purdue … Winner plays 1/Michigan
    • 1:30 PM - 12/Penn St vs 5/Ohio St … Winner plays 4/Iowa
    • 5:30 PM - 10/Indiana vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Wisconsin
    • 8 PM - 11/Illinois vs 6/NEBRASKA … Winner plays 3/Mich St

     

     

    Remaining games/tie-breaker options:

     

    ("W or L" is a game projected by RPIForecast as 7 pts or more margin, "close W or L" is projected as a 2.5 pt to 6.5 pt margin, "toss-up W or L" is projected as 1 pt or 2 pt margin)

     

    • ILLINOIS 4-10 – projected 5-13
    • Possible seed range: 6 through 12
    • Projected seed: 11

    Nebraska (close W)

    At Mich St (L)

    Michigan (close L)

    At Iowa (L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Minn, PSU (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, MSU*, Iowa*, NW, Pur, Wis (0-2), OSU (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Mich* (0-0), Ind

    *Game remaining

     

    • INDIANA 5-8 – projected 6-12 (6-11)
    • Possible seed range: 3 through 12
    • Projected seed: 10

    At Wisconsin (L)

    Iowa (close L)

    Ohio St (close L)

    Nebraska (close W)

    At Michigan (L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Wis*

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, Minn, Pur, MSU (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Iowa* (0-0), OSU* (0-0), Ill, PSU, NW

    *Game remaining

     
    • IOWA 8-5 – projected 12-6 (11-6)
    • Possible seed range: 1 through 11
    • Projected seed: 4

    At Minnesota (close W)

    At Indiana (close W)

    Purdue (W)

    At Mich St (toss-up / L)

    Illinois (W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Ill*, Neb, PSU, NW (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, Wis (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Pur* (0-0), Ind* (0-0), Mich, OSU

    *Game remaining

     
    • MICHIGAN 11-3 – projected 15-3 (14-4)
    • Possible seed range: 1 through 6
    • Projected seed: 1

    At Purdue (W)

    Minnesota (W)

    At Illinois (close W)

    Indiana (W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Pur*, NW, PSU, OSU, Neb (2-0), MSU (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind*

    Tied season series: Ill* (0-0), Iowa, Wis

    *Game remaining

     

    • MICHIGAN STATE 11-4 – projected 13-5
    • Possible seed range: 1 through 6
    • Projected seed: 3

    Illinois (W)

    Iowa (toss-up / W)

    At Ohio St (close L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Iowa*, OSU*, Ill*, Minn, Pur, NW (2-0), Ind (2-0), PSU (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb, Wis, Mich (0-2)

    Tied season series: N/A

    *Game remaining

     

    • MINNESOTA 6-9 – projected 7-11
    • Possible seed range: 3 through 12
    • Projected seed: 7

    Iowa (close L)

    At Michigan (L)

    Penn St (W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: PSU*, Ind

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Iowa*, Mich*, Neb, Ill, MSU

    Tied 1-1 season series: Wis, OSU, Pur, NW

    *Game remaining

     

    • NEBRASKA 8-6 – projected 9-9 (10-8)
    • Possible seed range: 1 through 10
    • Projected seed: 6

    At Illinois (close L)

    N’western (W)

    At Indiana (close L)

    Wisconsin (close L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: NW*, Ind*, Ill*, MSU, Minn

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Iowa, Mich (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Wis* (0-0), OSU, PSU, Pur

    *Game remaining

     
    • NORTHWESTERN 5-10 – projected 6-12
    • Possible seed range: 6 through 12
    • Projected seed: 9

    At Nebraska (L)

    Penn St (toss-up / W)

    At Purdue (close L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Pur*, Ill

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb*, OSU, Mich, Iowa (0-2), MSU (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: PSU* (0-0), Wis, Minn, Ind

    *Game remaining

     
    • OHIO STATE 9-6 – projected 12-6 (11-7)
    • Possible seed range: 1 through 8
    • Projected seed: 5

    At Penn St (W)

    At Indiana (close W)

    Michigan St (close W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Wis, NW, Pur (2-0), Ill (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, PSU*, Mich

    Tied 1-1 season series: Ind* (0-0), Iowa, Neb, Minn

    *Game remaining

     
    • PENN STATE 4-10 – projected 4-14 (5-13)
    • Possible seed range: 6 through 12
    • Projected seed: 12

    Ohio St (L)

    Wisconsin (L)

    At Northwestern (toss-up / L)

    At Minnesota (L)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: OSU*

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Mich, Iowa, MSU (0-2), Ill (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Wis* (0-0), NW* (0-0), Neb, Pur, Ind

    *Game remaining

     
    • PURDUE 5-9 – projected 6-12
    • Possible seed range: 6 through 12
    • Projected seed: 8

    Michigan (L)

    At Iowa (L)

    At Wisconsin (L)

    Northwestern (close W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Ind, Ill

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Wis*, NW*, MSU, OSU (0-2)

    Tied 1-1 season series: Iowa* (0-0), Minn, PSU, Neb

    *Game remaining

     

    • WISCONSIN 9-5 – projected 13-5 (12-6)
    • Possible seed range: 1 through 8
    • Projected seed: 2

    Indiana (W)

    At Penn St (W)

    Purdue (W)

    At Nebraska (close W)

     

    Favorable tiebreaker: Pur*, MSU, Iowa (2-0), Ill (2-0)

    Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind*, OSU 

    Tied season series: Neb* (0-0), PSU* (0-0), Mich, Minn, NW

    *Game remaining

    Edited by throwback

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    Really hope we don't have to play Illinois a 3rd time. Especially if we beat them on the road. Hard to beat a team 3 times

    The way it's probably going to shake out, we'll likely end up with a first-round opponent for the third time, whether it's Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, N'western or Penn St. That said you're right in that we could end up playing a team we split with rather than one we (potentially) swept.

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    Kind of cool to see that Nebraska is only a game out of 3rd place (Wisconsin 9-5) w/ the Badgers coming to Lincoln on the final Sunday night game of the conference regular season.  Keep the W's coming for NU & that primetime ballgame to end w/ Wisky could be for a top-four bye in the B1G tournament!

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    Kind of cool to see that Nebraska is only a game out of 3rd place (Wisconsin 9-5) w/ the Badgers coming to Lincoln on the final Sunday night game of the conference regular season.  Keep the W's coming for NU & that primetime ballgame to end w/ Wisky could be for a top-four bye in the B1G tournament!

    That would be unbelievable! Could you imagine the atmosphere in PBA?

     

    To make it happen, we're probably going to have to keep winning though. Wisky's closing schedule is quite a bit softer than ours. It'd take a pretty significant upset from a bottom-feeder to hand Wisky a loss before they come to Lincoln, so hopefully we can match them by going 3-0 the next week and a half.

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    In honor of minnesota beating iowa (yay!  believe it or not that's good for us)...

     

    Here's the current standings of consequence :

     

    Michigan (11-3) -- we're not going to catch them and they're going to win the league barring utter, inexplicable collapse.  @purdue.  minnesota.  @illinois.  Indiana.  Nobody in the top half of the league.  They got this IMO.

     

    Michigan State (11-4) -- Decently tough schedule.  Will probably be either 13-5 or 12-6.  Illinois, Iowa at home and OSU on the road.

     

    Wisconsin (9-5) -- Playing Indiana tonight.  @PSU.  Purdue  @Nebraska.  Realistically they're 12-5 going into our game.

     

    Ohio State (9-6) -- Toughish schedule for them.  They already lost to PSU and the game is on the road.  @Indiana is no gimme, neither is MSU at home.  If we tie them we want to be in a group tie except with iowa involved.

     

    Iowa (8-6) -- They've got a run of games due to the Indiana postponement.  Honestly, since they lost to minnesota at this point we're rooting for Iowa on occasion.  Namely @MSU.  @indiana is no gimme on short rest.  Purdue.  @MSU.  Illinois.  We need them to lose at least one, preferably two to sneak ahead of them.

     

    Nebraska (8-6) -- @Illinois.  Northwestern.  @indiana.  Wisconsin.  Well, we know who we play.  Something interesting is that Indiana has such a brutal schedule down the stretch especially due to the postponement.  We're their "sandwich" game between 4 other teams that are currently ranked (although Iowa will probably drop out after this week).  Running the table is VERY doable ... but one game at a time.

     

    Minnesota (7-9) -- The only team with a realistic chance to catch us that's below us.  We have the tiebreaker.  Win one game and we got them.  They also play @michigan and PSU.  Not likely they catch us as we'd have to lose all 4 games.

     

    Yes, I realize mathematically that essentially anyone else below us could catch us.  It isn't likely enough for me to put all that in there right now.

     

    ... so... what does this mean?

     

    Well, if we win out (not horribly unlikely, but admittedly unlikely) things can get VERY interesting.  The highest finish we can semi-realistically get is (believe it or not) as the 2 seed in the B1G tournament.

     

    Look at it.  It's not hard to see how.  Still nice to dream... even if unlikely.

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