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2015-2016 KenPom Rankings Thread


49r

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Now that practice has started, I think it's close enough to the season to get the KenPom thread for this year going again (and also to beat Actuary to the punch on starting the KenPom thread, finally).

 

So, here are the final KenPom rankings for last year with our 2015-16 schedule.  I expect the new rankings to come out in a couple weeks but for now this should be a decent enough spot to start some discussion.

 

I can see Goodman's point, it does look kinda cupcake-y, but also there's quite a few games that will be much bigger challenges.  What do you think???

 

KenPom rankings as of 4-06-15.

===========================
 
B1G (0-0):
3. Wisconsin
15. Michigan State
19. Iowa
21. Ohio State
32. Maryland
48. Purdue
53. Indiana
58. Minnesota
69. Illinois
75. Michigan
82. Penn State
118. Northwestern
133. Nebraska
215. Rutgers
 
Non-Conference (0-0):
347. Mississippi Valley State
 
---Gavitt Tipoff Games---
6. @Villanova
 
255. Delaware State
 
---Barclay's Center Classic---
312. Southeastern Louisiana
323. Arkansas Pine-Bluff
34. Cincinnati
74. George Washington, 89. Tennessee
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge---
46. Miami
 
335. Abilene Christian
85. @Creighton
56. Rhode Island
283. Samford
303. Prairie View A&M
Edited by 49r
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I can see Goodman's point, it does look kinda cupcake-y, but also there's quite a few games that will be much bigger challenges.  What do you think???

 

I think Miles put more thought into scheduling Ws than he did scheduling games to exploit the RPI this year. It's honestly tough to blame him much for that except for the crap teams that will be coming to the PBA.

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  • 3 weeks later...

The new KenPom rankings are out, and whoo boy does it look like we've got a mountain to climb!  It's no surprise, really, that we are starting off so low given where we ended last season and what we have returning (basically, Shavon).

 

Ignoring the conference slate for a minute, our non-con looks like it'll end up being a roller coaster ride of epic proportions.  6-6 in the non-con looks like a near certainty, and anything remotely near .500 in Big Ten play would appear to be somewhat of a miracle.

 

But, it is what it is and don't forget that we started 2013-14 off as the #130 team and that didn't end so badly.  One just never knows, hope springs eternal!

 

 

KenPom rankings as of 10-26-15.

===========================
 
B1G (0-0):
9. Wisconsin
13. Indiana
17. Michigan
18. Michigan State
22. Purdue
24. Maryland
36. Iowa
42. Ohio State
51. Northwestern
61. Illinois
66. Minnesota
119. Penn State
137. Nebraska
223. Rutgers
 
Non-Conference (0-0):
349. Mississippi Valley State
 
---Gavitt Tipoff Games---
5. @Villanova
 
335. Delaware State
 
---Barclay's Center Classic---
315. Southeastern Louisiana
327. Arkansas Pine-Bluff
14. Cincinnati
58. George Washington, 78. Tennessee
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge---
21. Miami
 
347. Abilene Christian
86. @Creighton
50. Rhode Island
285. Samford
345. Prairie View A&M
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KenPom relies on prior results more than projections for the coming season, it seems.

I can neither explain nor justify the approach KenPom uses to make their pre-season rankings.  But there's all kinds of statistics involved.  They figured out the offensive efficiency of the returning players and stuff like that.  They also take into account a team's last 5 years or so of what they've done because statistics show that teams that have had success tend to continue to have it, whereas teams that have been mired in failure tend to continue that as well.  I think they also factor in how much a team spends on its program because that seems to have some sort of correlation with success on the floor.

 

Lots of stuff, but there's a reason for it.

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KenPom also factors in like uber top recruits because those guys -- like Jahlil Okafor at Duke -- tend to have an impact on a team's play for that coming season.  But they don't factor in basically other recruits because there's not so strong of a correlation between the darned good recruits you might have coming in and how successful your season is.

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That's what I thought, KenPom skews the so-called "projections" which are not really projections in the sense that Ken doesn't anticipate anything changing to the script in his predictions, which seems odd since there were 750 transfers over the off-season. No wonder Miles has been known to crack on Pomeroy's "formula" on occasion. ;)

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The rankings don't factor in transfers either so it can skew things a bit when you are counting on major contributions from a guy like Andrew White.

 

Yup

 

 

 

If you think your favorite team is ranked too low, the reason is probably that there are really good transfers or recruits arriving.

 

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/2016_preseason_ratings

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KenPom also factors in like uber top recruits because those guys -- like Jahlil Okafor at Duke -- tend to have an impact on a team's play for that coming season.  But they don't factor in basically other recruits because there's not so strong of a correlation between the darned good recruits you might have coming in and how successful your season is.

 

 

The rankings don't factor in transfers either so it can skew things a bit when you are counting on major contributions from a guy like Andrew White.

 

 

That's what I thought, KenPom skews the so-called "projections" which are not really projections in the sense that Ken doesn't anticipate anything changing to the script in his predictions, which seems odd since there were 750 transfers over the off-season. No wonder Miles has been known to crack on Pomeroy's "formula" on occasion. ;)

 

Good points, guys.

 

But I really think we must face up to the glaring fact that we are severely deficient in the post and that's going to really hurt us.  I think perhaps #137 might even be a little generous at least to start.

 

Of course, that's just my opinion...

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One final word on KenPom preseason: His system seems odd, with the overreliance on past seasons and seemingly not enough evaluation of the roster. But he tests his stuff repeatedly and this was the best system for predicting the season's results. So it may seem like it doesn't make sense but it worked better statistically than any other system he tried.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Mmmm, cupcake!

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-15-15.

===========================
 
B1G (0-0):
11. Indiana
15. Michigan State
17. Michigan
21. Purdue
22. Maryland
23. Wisconsin
33. Iowa
39. Ohio State
57. Minnesota
64. Northwestern
78. Illinois
116. Penn State
131. Nebraska
218. Rutgers
 
Non-Conference (1-0):
349. Mississippi Valley State
 
---Gavitt Tipoff Games---
5. @Villanova
 
336. Delaware State
 
---Barclay's Center Classic---
314. Southeastern Louisiana
329. Arkansas Pine-Bluff
12. Cincinnati
61. George Washington, 84. Tennessee
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge---
25. Miami
 
344. Abilene Christian
74. @Creighton
42. Rhode Island
292. Samford
348. Prairie View A&M
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Time to fatten up on 3 more cupcakes before heading off to Brooklyn.

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-18-15.

===========================
 
B1G (0-0):
11. Michigan State
13. Indiana
15. Purdue
17. Michigan
24. Wisconsin
26. Maryland
34. Iowa
38. Ohio State
55. Minnesota
63. Northwestern
72. Illinois
115. Penn State
138. Nebraska
205. Rutgers
 
Non-Conference (1-1):
349. Mississippi Valley State - W
 
---Gavitt Tipoff Games---
3. @Villanova - L
 
337. Delaware State
 
---Barclay's Center Classic---
317. Southeastern Louisiana
326. Arkansas Pine-Bluff
12. Cincinnati
53. George Washington, 79. Tennessee
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge---
23. Miami
 
346. Abilene Christian
74. @Creighton
48. Rhode Island
292. Samford
348. Prairie View A&M
 
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