Threat of a 3 Point Shooter

[NUdiehard]

Many people are claiming that the loss of Ray Gallegos is looming large because, even though he only made 33% of his 3 pointers, he was at least a "threat" to shoot the 3 ball that had to be guarded.  This has me thinking, can NU re-create that "threat" this year without Ray Gallegos?

 

Looking back, the "threat" of Gallegos shooting a 3 should not have carried much weight b/c he was a below average 3 point shooter in the end.  Nonetheless, he shot 161 three point shots last year (making 54 of them for a 33.5% average).  Apparently, his relentless attempts forced opposing coaches to feel compelled to guard him.  So, why can't NU recreate that threat this year?

 

If I were coach Miles, I would be very tempted to tell Tai, Benny and Tarin that "if you are open and have a good look at the 3, let it fly.  And if you miss, don't worry about it.  Every time you get a good look, just let it fly and we will support you no matter what happens." 

 

The three of them combined (Tai, Benny and Tarin) have currently shot 58 three pointers combined (making 15 for a 27.5% average).  This average is not good at all, and is heavily weighed down by Tai's abysmal average of 16.7% (5 for 30).  Smith is at 33.3% (3 for 9) and Benn is at 42.1% (8 for 19). 

 

The question is, between the three of them, if they were given the green light, could they average 33.5% or better for the remainder of the season on 3s?  If so, wouldn't giving them the green light in essence "re-create" the "threat" that Gallegos gave us last year?  If they just keep launching, and hopefully have at least 1 or 2 games in which they get hot and make a string of them, then would opposing coaches feel "compelled" to guard them at that point?  They did for Gallegos even though he was only shooting 33.5%, so why not these 3 players?

 

Now, Tai has got to pick it up for this to work.  With that said, I think Tai's biggest problem (as we all know by now) is between the ears.  He simply doesn't have confidence, so he is hesitant to shoot and when he does shoot he is more "hoping" that it goes in than believing it will go in.  I have heard many reports that in practice he shoots the 3 ball at a high percentage.  We know for a fact that he was 3 for 3 in the K St. Scrimmage.  We also know for a fact that as a 17 year old on the New Zealand national team he made a lot of 3 point shots as one of the youngest players ever to play on the national scene.  I believe he has the ability to make at least 30% of his shots, but he needs confidence.  If Coach Miles were to give him the green light and say "shoot it, and just keep shooting", this may be just what he needs.  All it takes it one game where he makes 3 or 4 of them, and then other teams will have to "respect" him and start guarding him. 

 

The same is true for Benny and Tarin.  If they shoot enough, they will eventually get hot and make a string of them.  That will increase their confidence and it will force other teams to guard them.  Heck, Benny is already shooting 42% this year, but teams still don't guard him b/c he is still afraid to shoot it.  To me that is crazy!  Why do we make Petteway shoot a contested 25 foot fade away 3 pointer after Benny passes up 2 wide open 3 pointers?  I wouldn't guard him either if he isn't even going to look at the basket.

 

The fact is that our "scorers" aren't that much better anyway under the current system (of being forced to take so many difficult shots).  Petteway is shooting 33.7% on 3s and 41.8% overall.  Shavon is shooting 26.5% on 3s and a respectable 47.7% overall.  Walt P is shooting 33% on 3s and a poor 27.8% overall. 

 

The reality is NU is shooting a very poor percentage overall even when we consistently funnel almost every shot through the big 3.  So why not change it up?  Why not roll the dice and allow the "role" players to play a more prominent role on the offensive end and live with the results.  The reality is that what we are doing isn't working, so why not change it up and see what happens. 

 

Now, I am NOT saying that Tai, Benny and Tarin should shoot as much or more than the Big 3.  I am not saying that at all.  That would be ridiculous.  What I am saying is that when they have an open look, then they should not only have the green light, but should be told to shoot it and not worry about whether it goes in or not. That way, they don't have to feel like they missed their one and only shot if it rims out.  If they shoot it more frequently with the backing of the coach and team, someone is going to get hot and that will force other teams to guard them and that will open things up more and more for the Big 3.   

[FredsSlacks]

I think most people thought fuller would be the shooter that we needed.

 

He played really well in the first half of the Incarnate Ward game, but he basically hasn't played at all since that game.

[lang]

It's a pretty good arguement 'diehard. The season is in the balance and it's slipping away. You gotta play lose (somewhat) and to win...and that isn't always easy and there is some risk involved. I understand those 3 don't want to hurt the team, but at some point THAT may hurt the team. It's a shame with Tai..was so hoping he would get it going and be a real help this year. Instead he seems to be in that rut again.

[Blackshirt83]

From what I understand of Miles' offense those guys do have a green light to shoot at any time within the flow of the game... they just don't seem confident in knowing when that is.

Am I wrong?

[tbowman]

I agree with this sentiment 100%.  There are numerous issues with this team.  But one significant issue is the almost complete lack of production from Tai, Benny, and Tarin.  

 

They have to become more productive for this team to go anywhere.  They either need to become more effective in finishing at the rim or they need to let the 3-pointer fly if they get an open look.  

[NUdiehard]

From what I understand of Miles' offense those guys do have a green light to shoot at any time within the flow of the game... they just don't seem confident in knowing when that is.

Am I wrong?

If they have the "green light", then there must be failure of communication or understanding between coach and player.  Anyone who has been attending or watching the games must understand that Benny, Tai and Tarin pass up open look after open look only to pass to SS or TP late in the clock leaving a very difficult contested shot.  Last game vs. Indiana BP was WIDE OPEN to the point of ridiculousness (because Indiana blatently didn't even guard him) and yet he didn't even look at the basket.  That does not appear to me to be a player who thinks he has the green light (or does not understand what green light means).

 

If he has the green light, then he must be told that he "must" shoot it if he is open.  He must be instructed that he must shoot it and that he is hurting the team by not shooting it when open. 

[hhctony]

This is a hell of a point. TP and Shavon have taken 49.1% of our shots this year. No one else has taken 100 shots (Pitch is at 99). I think it also speaks to our lack of "running offense" and getting good looks for anyone. But, I also agree with your point in that we have lesser players pass up good shots to get TP or Shavon a difficult one. That makes little sense.

[ajb5856]

This is a hell of a point. TP and Shavon have taken 49.1% of our shots this year. No one else has taken 100 shots (Pitch is at 99). I think it also speaks to our lack of "running offense" and getting good looks for anyone. But, I also agree with your point in that we have lesser players pass up good shots to get TP or Shavon a difficult one. That makes little sense.

Almost 50% of the shots for Shavon and Petteway. Wow. We are a pretty easy team to guard right now. Nobody who can catch the ball on the low block and teams just have to worry about 2 players. Look at what Indiana did down the stretch playing off of Tarin Smith and Benny. When Shavon and TP combine for 50 we do okay. Our bench scoring, as it's been pointed out, is nonexistent. Teams can game plan as to which scorer (TP or Shields) to take away and they can just let the other guy get theirs and be okay.

[Norm Peterson]

So are you saying Terran Petteway wasn't our best player last year?  (/snark)

[hhcmatt]

From the numbers so far I'd be fine with Benny taking 4-5 threes per game...especially the ones where he's just sitting there open.

[ajb5856]

From the numbers so far I'd be fine with Benny taking 4-5 threes per game...especially the ones where he's just sitting there open.

Yes. Starting with Iowa. And lets have Benny hit 3-4 of those 4-5 three point attempts.

[Swan88]

According to Huskers.com, three-point stats thus far in 2014-2015 for Benny and Tarin are:

Benny 8 for 19 -- .421

Tarin. 3 for 9 -- .333

So, here's a suggestion to both of them, based on current circumstances: keep on shooting, don't stop shooting.