KenPom 2014-2015 KenPom Rankings Thread

[AuroranHusker]

Speaking of runs at the bubble, I'm thinking the B1G gets, what, about 6 teams in this year? 

 

That means we'd have to climb over about 5 other teams in the conference.  That's a lot of climbing.  Fortunately, there are 5 teams in front of us that aren't exactly juggernauts.

 

We can do it but we have to start winning a pretty high percentage of our remaining games.

 

Nebraska is in 9th, and I suspect 7 B1G teams will be right there. It will be difficult to go 11-7 again, it seems that 7-11 will be more likely if NU loses to both Minny & MSU at home this week.

[hhcmatt]

 

Does anybody even read this thread any more?  I'll stop if people think it's unnecessary for me to keep updating this thread...

 

I do and I can even get it from the source.

 

 

 

Not sure what Kenpoms love obsession with Minnesota is. 

 

 

He has a statistic called "Luck" where it looks at close games you play and guesses how many wins you should probably have. Minnesota ranks 344th out of 351 teams....a few breaks away from being something more like 13-5 or 14-4 instead of 11-7.

[Norm Peterson]

Does the "Luck" factor apply in reverse? In other words, does he drop teams that have gotten especially lucky?

[HuskerActuary]

Does the "Luck" factor apply in reverse? In other words, does he drop teams that have gotten especially lucky?

Yes - he looks past just the win/loss result. Essentially, the actual win/loss doesn't mean that much to him. A one-point loss is a little better than a two-point loss; a one-point win is a little better than a one-point loss; a two-point win is a little better than a one-point win; etc.

[hhcmatt]

 

Does the "Luck" factor apply in reverse? In other words, does he drop teams that have gotten especially lucky?

Yes - he looks past just the win/loss result. Essentially, the actual win/loss doesn't mean that much to him. A one-point loss is a little better than a two-point loss; a one-point win is a little better than a one-point loss; a two-point win is a little better than a one-point win; etc.

 

 

Yeah, it's more like that.  The luck calculation doesn't move you up or down but might explain why a team might be rated higher or lower than you think based on their record.

 

From the site:

Luck - A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

[ShortDust]

Love checking this 49er.. I look forward to it after each game/week. Doesn't matter to me if we are in bubble talk or not.

[49r]

Okay, good to see some comments in here.  I was starting to wonder when it was approaching nearly a whole page of just my posts.    Thanks for everyone's input, keep it up guys!

[tbowman]

Although I never comment this is a favorite thread every year.  Keep it up!  

[HB]

Although I never comment this is a favorite thread every year.  Keep it up!  

 

That's what she said.

[49r]

Okay, here we go with todays KenPom rundown.  So, we get a win over a top-50-ish Minnesota team and yet drop to 91.  SMDH.  At least we leap frogged Michigan into 10th in the league.  A couple of things jump out to me in today's rankings, namely the UIW loss continues to be the boat anchor on our ranking, and likely will remain that way barring some more W's against the top 30 teams we have remaining.  Fortunately we have a few more of those opportunities coming.

 

But as much of an anchor as UIW is, it's amazing to see how impressive the Cincinnati win continues to be for us.  They're now up to 31st, even more impressive to me simply due to the fact that they lost their Cronin for the year.  I gotta say I'm a BIG Bearcat fan this year!  Here are today's rankings.

 

KenPom rankings as of 1-21-15.

===========================

 

B1G (3-3):

4. Wisconsin - L

16. Maryland

22. Ohio State

23. Michigan State

44. Iowa - L

53. Minnesota - W

54. Indiana - L

71. Purdue

73. Illinois - W

91. Nebraska

95. Michigan

122. Penn State

133. Northwestern

149. Rutgers - W

 

Non-Conference (8-4):

242. Northern Kentucky - W

349. Central Arkansas - W

68. @Rhode Island - L

273. Omaha - W

193. Tennessee-Martin - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

141. @Florida State - W

 

110. Creighton - L

179. Incarnate Word - L

31. Cincinnati - W

 

---Diamond Head Classic---

159. @Hawaii - L

263. LMU - W

221. Ohio - W

[hhcmatt]

 

Okay, here we go with todays KenPom rundown.  So, we get a win over a top-50-ish Minnesota team and yet drop to 91.  SMDH.  

 

 

Actually we were 94 coming into the game...we will move bits up and down depending on what other teams do when we play.

Also, KenPom is not impressed by close wins over teams we're expected to win closely by at home.

[AuroranHusker]

 

 

Okay, here we go with todays KenPom rundown.  So, we get a win over a top-50-ish Minnesota team and yet drop to 91.  SMDH.  

 

 

Actually we were 94 coming into the game...we will move bits up and down depending on what other teams do when we play.

Also, KenPom is not impressed by close wins over teams we're expected to win closely by at home.

 

 

Still amazing to see Minny at 53 and Indiana at 54... What?

[49r]

Well, neither one lost to Incarnate Word at home so they have that going for them.

[AuroranHusker]

Well, neither one lost to Incarnate Word at home so they have that going for them.

 

Nor Crayton... so, yeah, it's still baffling that a team 4-1 in the #B1G is at 54th while the other is 1-6 in the #B1G but 53rd. Weird.

[49r]

 

 

Okay, here we go with todays KenPom rundown.  So, we get a win over a top-50-ish Minnesota team and yet drop to 91.  SMDH.  

 

 

Actually we were 94 coming into the game...we will move bits up and down depending on what other teams do when we play.

Also, KenPom is not impressed by close wins over teams we're expected to win closely by at home.

 

 

I had considered that too, in fact, I think I probably knew we had slipped since the day after the Wisco game.  Still, I think it's kinda weird.  Also I don't check KenPom every day, I think it would probably drive me insane if I did.  

[hhcmatt]

 

 

 

Okay, here we go with todays KenPom rundown.  So, we get a win over a top-50-ish Minnesota team and yet drop to 91.  SMDH.  

 

 

Actually we were 94 coming into the game...we will move bits up and down depending on what other teams do when we play.

Also, KenPom is not impressed by close wins over teams we're expected to win closely by at home.

 

 

I had considered that too, in fact, I think I probably knew we had slipped since the day after the Wisco game.  Still, I think it's kinda weird.  Also I don't check KenPom every day, I think it would probably drive me insane if I did.  

 

 

I probably check it 4-5 times a day for various items.

[Norm Peterson]

OK, in some ways Kenpom is just goofy.  Creighton moves up 5 spots after a loss to Butler and we go nowhere after a win over Minnesota.  Go figure.  I'm sure there's some "math" explanation. 

[49r]

Biggest difference I guess is Butler is a top-30 kenpom team.  Minnesota is only top 50...or was, until we beat them.  

 

At any event it's okay because at least Creighton's continued futility isn't hurting us all that much...kenpom-wise.

[hhcmatt]

Biggest difference I guess is Butler is a top-30 kenpom team.  Minnesota is only top 50...or was, until we beat them.  

 

At any event it's okay because at least Creighton's continued futility isn't hurting us all that much...kenpom-wise.

 

Actually it was road vs home

[49r]

 

Biggest difference I guess is Butler is a top-30 kenpom team.  Minnesota is only top 50...or was, until we beat them.  

 

At any event it's okay because at least Creighton's continued futility isn't hurting us all that much...kenpom-wise.

 

Actually it was road vs home

 

 

 

Yeah...that too.  

[Norm Peterson]

Well, if we can get them (Creighton) into the top 100, at least we'll only have one home loss outside the top 100 and that will burnish our NCAA resume at least a little bit.

 

Sucks we lost to them but I'd rather lose to them and be sitting at 3-3 in conference with an outside shot of winning enough games to reach the bubble than have a win against them and be sitting at 0-7 in league.

[hhcmatt]

Well, if we can get them (Creighton) into the top 100, at least we'll only have one home loss outside the top 100 and that will burnish our NCAA resume at least a little bit.

 

I think this is known but RPI is what matters for tourney time. KenPom matter for picking who is going to win at the moment.

[49r]

Last 12 games and the remaining schedule with RPI ranks taken from ESPN.

 

---

140 - Creighton - L 55-65

166 - Incarnate Word - L 73-74

37 - Cincinnati - W 56-55

202 - @ Hawaii - L 58-66

228 - Loyola Marymount* - W 50-42

220 - Ohio* - W 71-58

41 - Indiana - L 65-70

42 - @ Iowa - L 59-70

83 - Rutgers - W 65-49

57 - Illinois - W 53-43

9 - @ Wisconsin - L 55-70

103 - Minnesota - W 52-49

 

---

UPCOMING GAMES

34 - Michigan St

67 - @ Michigan

103 - @ Minnesota

122 - Northwestern

97 - @ Penn State

9 - Wisconsin

101 - @ Purdue

13 - @ Maryland

42 - Iowa

59 - @ Ohio State

57 - @ Illinois

13 - Maryland

 

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/7/teamId/158

[AuroranHusker]

 

Last 12 games and the remaining schedule with RPI ranks taken from ESPN.

 

---

140 - Creighton - L 55-65

166 - Incarnate Word - L 73-74

37 - Cincinnati - W 56-55

202 - @ Hawaii - L 58-66

228 - Loyola Marymount* - W 50-42

220 - Ohio* - W 71-58

41 - Indiana - L 65-70

42 - @ Iowa - L 59-70

83 - Rutgers - W 65-49

57 - Illinois - W 53-43

9 - @ Wisconsin - L 55-70

103 - Minnesota - W 52-49

 

---

UPCOMING GAMES

34 - Michigan St

67 - @ Michigan

103 - @ Minnesota

122 - Northwestern

97 - @ Penn State

9 - Wisconsin

101 - @ Purdue

13 - @ Maryland

42 - Iowa

59 - @ Ohio State

57 - @ Illinois

13 - Maryland

 

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/7/teamId/158

 

 

Looks like a lot of real good opportunities to make some noise for Nebrasketball are on the near & distant horizon! GBR

[Norm Peterson]

 

Well, if we can get them (Creighton) into the top 100, at least we'll only have one home loss outside the top 100 and that will burnish our NCAA resume at least a little bit.

 

I think this is known but RPI is what matters for tourney time. KenPom matter for picking who is going to win at the moment.

 

That's what I thought but then someone said last year that they do factor in Kenpom rankings.  So, I don't know what to make of it.