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Going Pro Prediction Percentages

tbowman

By tbowman
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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MidwestDrummer

MidwestDrummer

Posted
Posted

 

So I'd be interested in hearing the prediction percentage you would put on Petteway, Pitchford, and Shields going pro after the 2014-2015 season. 

 

My own predictions are below.

 

Petteway - 85%

Pitchford - 40%

Shields - 15%

 

I'm pretty high on Pitchford.  A guy that tall and athletic that can shoot the 3 is coveted in the NBA.  He steadily improved last season and if he continues to improve he could easily be gone next season along with Petteway.  

 

And don't count out Shields either.  

 

NU could lose 3 great players at the end of this season.  

There is no way -- NO WAY -- the NBA takes three players from one team that doesn't at least make the Elite 8.

 

So ... if we get an Elite 8 out of it, I think I can live with the loss of 3 starters.

 

 

Kentucky lost to Robert Morris in the first round of the 2013 NIT, and then proceeded to have both Nerlens Noel and Archie Goodwin drafted in the first round. NBA teams care very little about actual college production, and draft almost exclusively on potential.

TheKamdyMan

TheKamdyMan

Posted
Posted

So I'd be interested in hearing the prediction percentage you would put on Petteway, Pitchford, and Shields going pro after the 2014-2015 season.

My own predictions are below.

Petteway - 85%

Pitchford - 40%

Shields - 15%

I'm pretty high on Pitchford. A guy that tall and athletic that can shoot the 3 is coveted in the NBA. He steadily improved last season and if he continues to improve he could easily be gone next season along with Petteway.

And don't count out Shields either.

NU could lose 3 great players at the end of this season.

There is no way -- NO WAY -- the NBA takes three players from one team that doesn't at least make the Elite 8.

So ... if we get an Elite 8 out of it, I think I can live with the loss of 3 starters.

Kentucky lost to Robert Morris in the first round of the 2013 NIT, and then proceeded to have both Nerlens Noel and Archie Goodwin drafted in the first round. NBA teams care very little about actual college production, and draft almost exclusively on potential.

To be fair Nerlens went down with an injury and that team went down the crapper after that point. They were a NCAA team with him.

Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

Posted
Posted

 

 

So I'd be interested in hearing the prediction percentage you would put on Petteway, Pitchford, and Shields going pro after the 2014-2015 season. 

 

My own predictions are below.

 

Petteway - 85%

Pitchford - 40%

Shields - 15%

 

I'm pretty high on Pitchford.  A guy that tall and athletic that can shoot the 3 is coveted in the NBA.  He steadily improved last season and if he continues to improve he could easily be gone next season along with Petteway.  

 

And don't count out Shields either.  

 

NU could lose 3 great players at the end of this season.  

There is no way -- NO WAY -- the NBA takes three players from one team that doesn't at least make the Elite 8.

 

So ... if we get an Elite 8 out of it, I think I can live with the loss of 3 starters.

 

 

Kentucky lost to Robert Morris in the first round of the 2013 NIT, and then proceeded to have both Nerlens Noel and Archie Goodwin drafted in the first round. NBA teams care very little about actual college production, and draft almost exclusively on potential.

 

That's true when you're talking about a one-and-done kid, which we don't have.  But guys who have spent 3-4 years in college before getting drafted are getting drafted based on proven results (as well as potential.)  And a team with three veteran guys good enough to be drafted in the same year is good enough to reach the Elite 8.

 

And, again, if the trade-off is that we reach the Elite 8, then draft the whole darn team AFAIC.

ajb5856

ajb5856

Posted
Posted

Heres a little article from btpowerhouse about big ten players in this upcoming years draft...

http://www.btpowerhouse.com/2014/8/21/6050511/ranking-the-big-tens-top-2015-nba-draft-prospects

I read the article and I really disagree with what was said regarding Terran Petteway's NBA draft stock. It basically said that TP will be hurt by the fact that he plays for Nebraska, a team with no good basketball history. The writer said that 'NBA GMs have biases and will look the other way, dismissing what TP has done because he did it at Nebraska.

I actually think just the opposite would happen. You have Nebraska coming out of nowhere, taking the nation by storm, and a great deal of the success can be attributed directly to TP.

a0t0w0

a0t0w0

Posted
Posted

They're all pros in my mind...

 

If I were a Creighton fan I'd say 0% Nebraska has a draft pick for 30 years

 

If I were a normal person I'd say TP-35% WP- 6.7% TW- 4.4% SS- 2.04% MA- .98% NF-.04% DR- .029% BP- .02%

atskooc

atskooc

Posted
Posted

Heres a little article from btpowerhouse about big ten players in this upcoming years draft...http://www.btpowerhouse.com/2014/8/21/6050511/ranking-the-big-tens-top-2015-nba-draft-prospects

I read the article and I really disagree with what was said regarding Terran Petteway's NBA draft stock. It basically said that TP will be hurt by the fact that he plays for Nebraska, a team with no good basketball history. The writer said that 'NBA GMs have biases and will look the other way, dismissing what TP has done because he did it at Nebraska.

I actually think just the opposite would happen. You have Nebraska coming out of nowhere, taking the nation by storm, and a great deal of the success can be attributed directly to TP.

I thought his assessment was weak as well, especially as he had Shavon on the honorable mention list. If being a Husker hurts TP, then what would it do to Shavon?
HB

HB

Posted
Posted

Petteway goes if he is a lock for the lottery.  

He stays if he's a second round pick.

What does he do if he's projected for the end of the first round?

 

If he's projected as a first rounder, he goes. 

 

And this will happen. 

Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

Posted
Posted

TP is gone AFTER THIS SEASON

 

0% chance anyone else goes.

Hey, c'mon, for those of us who have lived through Roburt Sallie not getting qualified and Jorge Diaz checking the wrong box on his university admissions app, Joe McCray and Jamel White getting booted, etc., etc., etc., you can't just throw out there the "TP is gone" without clearly adding the "after this season" part.

 

I mean, my heart skipped a beat there and, for a brief second, the room started to spin.  Don't do that to us.

 

I'm like a Viet Nam vet hearing a car backfire.  Have some compassion, man.

Hskr

Hskr

Posted
Posted

 

TP is gone AFTER THIS SEASON

 

0% chance anyone else goes.

Hey, c'mon, for those of us who have lived through Roburt Sallie not getting qualified and Jorge Diaz checking the wrong box on his university admissions app, Joe McCray and Jamel White getting booted, etc., etc., etc., you can't just throw out there the "TP is gone" without clearly adding the "after this season" part.

 

I mean, my heart skipped a beat there and, for a brief second, the room started to spin.  Don't do that to us.

 

I'm like a Viet Nam vet hearing a car backfire.  Have some compassion, man.

 

 

 

Sorry Norm, didn't mean to knock you off your stool! :D

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted

Are people seriously thinking Walt might go pro after this year?? Like European??

 

Walt is blessed with some of the attributes of a guy who could be a role player in the NBA for 10 years: he's 6'10", athletic, and can shoot 3s. He does have a lot of holes in his game though so he'd need to make a hell of jump between last season and the end of this one to make the NBA. He'll play pro somewhere in the future but it's probably going to be overseas after his senior year. 

  • 7 months later...
HB

HB

Posted
Posted

 

Pitchford - 40%

Walt may stay in college for one reason and one reason only. Sorority girls

 

 

Nice work, Doc!  You had it nailed, before it happened!  At least as to staying in college this past season.  

 

The rest of  this thread is also interesting, with hind sight.  I was right about TP leaving, but wrong about the first round stuff.  That ain't happening.  (EDIT, and now Dimes posts a Rosenthal tweet that it may not be official.  So it's not yet official).

PimpMario

PimpMario

Posted
Posted

Petteway - 100%

Walt - 55%

Shields - 3%

I won't pat myself on the back too much, but I did call it!

I also had some "inside" information about how much Pitch wanted to play professionally and his opinion of his chances.

HB

HB

Posted
Posted

 

Petteway - 100%

Walt - 55%

Shields - 3%

I won't pat myself on the back too much, but I did call it!

I also had some "inside" information about how much Pitch wanted to play professionally and his opinion of his chances.

 

 

Pat away, Mario!  You earned it.

 

Hope Walt enjoys Europe.

PimpMario

PimpMario

Posted
Posted

Petteway - 85%

Pitchford - 40%

Shields - 15%

Hello? What about props for the individual who created/started this thread?
Props are deserved but you gotta be above 50% to consider pitchford the correct call.

I mean pitch had a bad year and he is still leaving.

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