So, what were the odds?

[Norm Peterson]

Does anyone remember where that thread was that talked about the odds of us getting to 10-8 in conference?  I can't remember which thread it was in but I was curious what it said our odds were of getting to 11-7.

[Cookie Belcher]

When was it posted? Preseason? Or odds during the season? I am curious.

[HuskerFever]

Does anyone remember where that thread was that talked about the odds of us getting to 10-8 in conference?  I can't remember which thread it was in but I was curious what it said our odds were of getting to 11-7.

 

Was it something 49r posted?

[Norm Peterson]

Just a couple of weeks ago when it began to look like we had a chance to make a run.  Maybe as long ago as late January.  I'm sure it was updated more recently.  But someone had found a website that gave the odds of us reaching various final records.  It was like we were most likely projected to finish 7-11, somewhat decent odds to reach 8-10, long odds to get to 9-9 and almost non-existent odds to reach 10-8.

 

Does that ring a bell with anyone?

[Norm Peterson]

 

Does anyone remember where that thread was that talked about the odds of us getting to 10-8 in conference?  I can't remember which thread it was in but I was curious what it said our odds were of getting to 11-7.

 

Was it something 49r posted?

 

Might have been.  I can't honestly recall.  I just remember seeing it.  I don't even remember what site it might have come from.  But someone was posting it here.  And it was updated periodically as we started to win.  But I haven't seen it updated in awhile so I was curious.

[49r]

Yeah, it was something I posted.  Here ya go, Norm!

 

http://board.huskerhoopscentral.com/topic/2937-2013-2014-kenpom-rankings-thread/page-10#entry54692

[Norm Peterson]

Yeah, it was something I posted.  Here ya go, Norm!

 

http://board.huskerhoopscentral.com/topic/2937-2013-2014-kenpom-rankings-thread/page-10#entry54692

Thank you sir.  I'll take a look and bump it just so we can all look back and admire what an odds-defying run we've had.

[49r]

Go back even further in that thread and it's interesting just what the thoughts were:  http://board.huskerhoopscentral.com/topic/2937-2013-2014-kenpom-rankings-thread/?p=50569

 

Funny how, even the most optimistic of predictions are now not even a possibility.  I really thought I was reaching with that "maybe even #7" stuff.

 

It's impossible for us to drop that low now.  

[Norm Peterson]

Wow.  Just wow.   Would you look at where we were projected back at the end of January?

 

Posted 31 January 2014 - 09:30 AM

Taken from RPI Forecast this morning.

 

Odds are VERY favorable now for us to get to the magic .500 mark and the NIT.

 

Final Record=====Expected RPI=====Probability

20-10----------------35.5-------------------0.02%
19-11----------------43.0-------------------0.64%
18-12----------------53.0-------------------4.42%
17-13----------------64.4------------------14.11%
16-14----------------77.5------------------24.34%
15-15----------------92.3------------------27.59%
14-16---------------109.0------------------18.99%
13-17---------------128.2-------------------8.08%
12-18---------------147.2-------------------1.61%
11-19---------------164.8-------------------0.19%

 

We sit a half game out of 19-11.  RPIforecast gave us better odds of winding up 5-13 in conference than getting to where we are now.  Astounding.

[49r]

Also, this thread is worth going back through:  http://board.huskerhoopscentral.com/topic/3659-6-12-in-the-big-10

[Sgt Lincoln Osiris]

What's impressive is that the RPI forecast is going to be about spot-on with what they projected our RPI to be with each of those records.  If we win Sunday we will be low-mid 40s and if we lose we will be low 50s.  Nice to see we had less than a 5% chance of doing what we did.

[Donkey]

I just checked the ESPN RPI a few minutes ago and it has us at 41.  We win Sunday and it could easily be in the 30's.  Amazing, simply amazing.

[49r]

And, just FYI, here are the current probabilities:

 

Final Record=====Expected RPI=====Probability

19-11 -------------- 43.3 ----------------- 32.17%
18-12 -------------- 55.3 ----------------- 67.83%

[Norm Peterson]

And, just FYI, here are the current probabilities:

 

Final Record=====Expected RPI=====Probability

19-11 -------------- 43.3 ----------------- 32.17%

18-12 -------------- 55.3 ----------------- 67.83%

Well, considering that just over a month ago, our odds of being where we are were listed at less than 5%, I'll take that as pretty good odds for us.

 

Wisconsin is riding an almost impossibly long winning streak. 

 

It's our house.

 

They're due for a loss.

 

And our guys seem to show up biggest in the biggest games.

[bball23]

This is going to sound crazy...I was just telling my co-worker this...before every season I print out an NU schedule and write who I think we can beat, lose too.  I had NU overall this year as 20-10 (11-7).  The way I got 11-7 is different than how we could get to 11-7 with a win Sunday.  I had us beating PSU on the road, beating Michigan at home and losing @MSU.  Then I had us 2-1 in the tourney early in the year where we went 1-2.  

 

Hopefully we can get that win Sunday and my 11-7 would be dead on!  I'm always optimistic with this team so my prediction at the time probably looked crazy.