Petteway is a man amongst boys

[Shuttlesworth]

Currently rewatching the game and realized something. IMO, In 5 of our 6 conference wins, Petteway was the best player on the floor, and in a few cases it wasn't even close. The only W in which he wasn't was vs. Illinois when he was outshined by Shields.

If Big Ten POTY was MVP instead, how would he not be the front runner? Am I sipping too much Kool Aid or is this fairly accurate?

[nuled2dance]

Those junk shots izzo mentioned are an actual regular deal for tp!

[TomEadesSucks]

Where would this team be without Petteway? We'd be lucky to have any conference wins. Instead, we're in 6th place and .500 in league play. He's without a doubt the MVP of the conference. 

[Huskerpapa]

I mentioned the following in another subject...Coach Miles mentioned in his post-game that Terran was shooting 57% from 3-point land in the last five minutes of games...that my friends is not lucky, that is clutch.

[Cookie Belcher]

I mentioned the following in another subject...Coach Miles mentioned in his post-game that Terran was shooting 57% from 3-point land in the last five minutes of games...that my friends is not lucky, that is clutch.

Uh, it is kind of lucky, otherwise you are insinuating that he can make 57% of his threes when he wants to, and just chooses to shoot a lower % the rest of the game.

Terran should be in the top 3 of the B1G player of the year race and IMO would be #2 behind Marble at this point.

[Norm Peterson]

Petteway is a difference maker.  I have been commenting about this for awhile now, but it's like I said in that other thread:  He's the difference between where we are now and the kinds of teams we had under Doc.  He alone.  He's been our POTG probably 75% of the games this season?  Something like that?  He gets us clutch baskets when we absolutely need them.  He creates match-up problems for other teams.  He can get to the rim and finish.

 

Terran is the tipping point.

 

Add him to the mix and surround him with Doc-esque players (Shields, Gallegos, Parker, Rivers were all Doc commits) and we become a tournament caliber team.  THIS is the player we've always said we were missing.  That one difference maker who ... makes up the difference.

[Huskerpapa]

 

I mentioned the following in another subject...Coach Miles mentioned in his post-game that Terran was shooting 57% from 3-point land in the last five minutes of games...that my friends is not lucky, that is clutch.

Uh, it is kind of lucky, otherwise you are insinuating that he can make 57% of his threes when he wants to, and just chooses to shoot a lower % the rest of the game.

Terran should be in the top 3 of the B1G player of the year race and IMO would be #2 behind Marble at this point.

 

Think what you want Cookie, but big players make big plays...in every sport at every level.  There is a reason that certain players become the "go to" players when a game is on the line.  I guess all of those players have made their share of lucky shots.  But it takes a certain mind-set and skill-set to be that player at that time...

[lanigan123]

I think the most important part of taking the next step for this team is consistency. We need Terran to play like that every game, we need Shields and Pitchford to be consistent.

[Huskerpapa]

I think the most important part of taking the next step for this team is consistency. We need Terran to play like that every game, we need Shields and Pitchford to be consistent.

Correct.  Plus, just think if Ray and Tai can elevate their games as well. 

[Cookie Belcher]

I mentioned the following in another subject...Coach Miles mentioned in his post-game that Terran was shooting 57% from 3-point land in the last five minutes of games...that my friends is not lucky, that is clutch.

Uh, it is kind of lucky, otherwise you are insinuating that he can make 57% of his threes when he wants to, and just chooses to shoot a lower % the rest of the game.

Terran should be in the top 3 of the B1G player of the year race and IMO would be #2 behind Marble at this point.

Think what you want Cookie, but big players make big plays...in every sport at every level. There is a reason that certain players become the "go to" players when a game is on the line. I guess all of those players have made their share of lucky shots. But it takes a certain mind-set and skill-set to be that player at that time...

I don't dispute anything you said in this last post. It definitely takes a special type of player to be able to take and make big shots down the stretch of games. Some guys don't have the mental fortitude to be able to do that. Terran has shown that he does and excels in those situations.

The only part I was disagreeing on is that his 57% number isn't somewhat due to luck. He isn't a 57% three point shooter. He isn't magically able to make more of his shots at the end of games. If he is, he should apply that same approach the entire game and shoot 57% the whole game. The amazing and impressive thing about Terran is that he doesn't shrink or wilt at all in the big moments and is able to maintain his level of play in those high leverage situations. Many guys' games get worse in big spots. He doesn't.

[kldm64]

Petteway is a difference maker.  I have been commenting about this for awhile now, but it's like I said in that other thread:  He's the difference between where we are now and the kinds of teams we had under Doc.  He alone.  He's been our POTG probably 75% of the games this season?  Something like that?  He gets us clutch baskets when we absolutely need them.  He creates match-up problems for other teams.  He can get to the rim and finish.

 

Terran is the tipping point.

 

Add him to the mix and surround him with Doc-esque players (Shields, Gallegos, Parker, Rivers were all Doc commits) and we become a tournament caliber team.  THIS is the player we've always said we were missing.  That one difference maker who ... makes up the difference.

 

That is true that the talent would be there to be a tournament caliber team but the coaching wouldn't be.  In Doc's last season, it was set up for that to be a tournament caliber team as well and we all know how that turned out.

[1sdpad2]

14 of the last 16 pts yesterday. It's nice having someone to take over a game at the end and win it. Telling shields no no no you inbound to me was the start of the run to finish it of. It didn't look the best at the time, but Petteway knew what he wanted to do.

[Norm Peterson]

 

 

 

I mentioned the following in another subject...Coach Miles mentioned in his post-game that Terran was shooting 57% from 3-point land in the last five minutes of games...that my friends is not lucky, that is clutch.

Uh, it is kind of lucky, otherwise you are insinuating that he can make 57% of his threes when he wants to, and just chooses to shoot a lower % the rest of the game.

Terran should be in the top 3 of the B1G player of the year race and IMO would be #2 behind Marble at this point.

Think what you want Cookie, but big players make big plays...in every sport at every level. There is a reason that certain players become the "go to" players when a game is on the line. I guess all of those players have made their share of lucky shots. But it takes a certain mind-set and skill-set to be that player at that time...

I don't dispute anything you said in this last post. It definitely takes a special type of player to be able to take and make big shots down the stretch of games. Some guys don't have the mental fortitude to be able to do that. Terran has shown that he does and excels in those situations.

The only part I was disagreeing on is that his 57% number isn't somewhat due to luck. He isn't a 57% three point shooter. He isn't magically able to make more of his shots at the end of games. If he is, he should apply that same approach the entire game and shoot 57% the whole game. The amazing and impressive thing about Terran is that he doesn't shrink or wilt at all in the big moments and is able to maintain his level of play in those high leverage situations. Many guys' games get worse in big spots. He doesn't.

 

57% is not luck.  57% is clutch.

 

Some guys have it; others don't.  Whatever it is, it isn't luck. 

 

I'm sure scholarly articles have been written about the phenomenon of people executing difficult tasks at crunch time.  Tiger Woods regularly has pulled off clutch feats in his career.  You can say his 15 footer on the last hole of regulation at the 2008 U.S. Open that he needed in order to force a playoff was luck.  But he's pulled off so many clutch shots in his career that, at some point, you have to acknowledge that there's something decidedly more than luck going on.  Takes extraordinary skill, but there's also a mental toughness that has to exist in someone who regularly pulls off clutch feats.

 

57% is not luck.  Terran Petteway is clutch.  And we're damn lucky to have him.

[doc1394]

His shot making at the end of games just reminds me of Kobe. Kobe struggles to shoot at times in the middle of games, but he knocks down some insane shots at the end of the game that have an extremely high degree of difficulty.

[Cookie Belcher]

I mentioned the following in another subject...Coach Miles mentioned in his post-game that Terran was shooting 57% from 3-point land in the last five minutes of games...that my friends is not lucky, that is clutch.

Uh, it is kind of lucky, otherwise you are insinuating that he can make 57% of his threes when he wants to, and just chooses to shoot a lower % the rest of the game.

Terran should be in the top 3 of the B1G player of the year race and IMO would be #2 behind Marble at this point.

Think what you want Cookie, but big players make big plays...in every sport at every level. There is a reason that certain players become the "go to" players when a game is on the line. I guess all of those players have made their share of lucky shots. But it takes a certain mind-set and skill-set to be that player at that time...

I don't dispute anything you said in this last post. It definitely takes a special type of player to be able to take and make big shots down the stretch of games. Some guys don't have the mental fortitude to be able to do that. Terran has shown that he does and excels in those situations.

The only part I was disagreeing on is that his 57% number isn't somewhat due to luck. He isn't a 57% three point shooter. He isn't magically able to make more of his shots at the end of games. If he is, he should apply that same approach the entire game and shoot 57% the whole game. The amazing and impressive thing about Terran is that he doesn't shrink or wilt at all in the big moments and is able to maintain his level of play in those high leverage situations. Many guys' games get worse in big spots. He doesn't.

57% is not luck. 57% is clutch.

Some guys have it; others don't. Whatever it is, it isn't luck.

I'm sure scholarly articles have been written about the phenomenon of people executing difficult tasks at crunch time. Tiger Woods regularly has pulled off clutch feats in his career. You can say his 15 footer on the last hole of regulation at the 2008 U.S. Open that he needed in order to force a playoff was luck. But he's pulled off so many clutch shots in his career that, at some point, you have to acknowledge that there's something decidedly more than luck going on. Takes extraordinary skill, but there's also a mental toughness that has to exist in someone who regularly pulls off clutch feats.

57% is not luck. Terran Petteway is clutch. And we're damn lucky to have him.

Why doesn't he shoot 57% from 3 on the season then?

If his 57% figure in the last 5 minutes starts to go down in the next few games is he becoming "less clutch"? No, it is just trending back towards his actual 3 point percentage as the sample size increases.

I agree that Terran is amazing and we are lucky to have him, best player we have had in a while.

[Cookie Belcher]

His shot making at the end of games just reminds me of Kobe. Kobe struggles to shoot at times in the middle of games, but he knocks down some insane shots at the end of the game that have an extremely high degree of difficulty.

Kobe shoots a lower % at the end of games than the rest of the game. You just remember his makes because they are big time, memorable shots. We forget the misses.

[Norm Peterson]

Why doesn't Tiger Woods hit every 30 foot putt? 

 

Take two .300 hitters and explain why one of them hits .350 with runners in scoring position and the other only hits .250.

 

Why did they call Reggie Jackson "Mr. October"? 

 

Something about clutch players makes them rise to the occasion and hit shots or putts that others would miss under those same circumstances.

[Norm Peterson]

And, by the way, I don't think it's 57% in the last 5 minutes of the game.  It's 57% in the last 5 seconds of the shot clock.  I believe.

[royalfan]

Yeah Kobe is surprisingly an extremely inefficient 4th quarter player.  As for Petteway, while he is obviously clutch and a fine closer, the 57 percent is an aberration and can be chalked up to small sample size.  The more shots he takes in that situation, the more likely the percentage will gravitate towards  the norm.  Being clutch is hard to measure.  It drives numbers based guys crazy.  It is somewhat similar to old school baseball scouts liking tools, and sabermetrics guys liking numbers. 

[Cookie Belcher]

Why doesn't Tiger Woods hit every 30 foot putt?

Take two .300 hitters and explain why one of them hits .350 with runners in scoring position and the other only hits .250.

And Tiger Woods doesn't make 100% of his putts in clutch situations, why would I expect him to make 100% in normal situations?

Variance is the answer to your 2nd question.

I'm going to drop this topic as it seems like people are interpreting my stance as a slight on Terran which is far from the truth. I love Terran and he is the best player we have had in ages.

My thoughts on "luck" simply coming from my strong statistical background and years of studying statistics. I don't want to derail this thread from the topic of Terran Petteway though, so I will agree to disagree.

[HoiBall]

Closers have the confidence that very few other people have. Terran has "it". You can see it in his eyes late in the game, he's going to have the ball and he's going to get it done. I can only imagine how the first Penn St. game might have ended differently had the ball been in his hands the last 2 minutes...

[hhcmatt]

Petteway is an experienced bad shot taker...which is typically the shot you get with 5 or less seconds on the clock.

In some regards this bad habit probably makes him better at being "clutch"

[49r]

Early in the season he was "selfish".  Now he's "clutch".

 

Hm...

 

Not saying it's actually one or the other.  I'm just sayin'.

 

I'm glad he's on our team, for sure.

[Silverbacked1]

Early in the season he was "selfish".  Now he's "clutch".

 

Hm...

 

Not saying it's actually one or the other.  I'm just sayin'.

 

I'm glad he's on our team, for sure.

Was thinking the same thing HB.

[Norm Peterson]

Cookie, I think it's an interesting topic.  I understand your statistical approach is to say that some other factor than skill has to explain the statistical oddity of his increased shooting percentage during whatever the timeframe is (I thought it was last 5 seconds of the shot clock.)

 

You have chosen the label "luck" to describe this statistical oddity.  I'm saying that "clutch" is a better label and "clutch" is not the same as "luck."  The term "luck" implies a random fortuity.  I don't think it's random fortuity at all.

 

Allow me to illustrate by presenting the opposite of "clutch." 

 

I remember watching a segment on Nightline once where they talked about this kind of thing.  They have the nightline correspondent, in a room with an artificial putting green, hitting 3 foot putts.  And he hits them all.  Then, they bring in cameras and put $100 down on the table and ask him to hit the same putt.

 

Now, how do you explain the statistical variance between the higher percentage you'd obtain stroking 3 foot putts when there's no pressure versus the lower percentage of makes you'd obtain stroking 3 foot putts under intense pressure?  Is that simply "unluck"?  If you hit 80% of your 3 foot putts under normal circumstances but drop to 50% of your 3 foot putts under pressure, that's just "unluck" right?

 

Royal might have a point about small sample size, but the numbers vary too greatly.  But I think there's something else at work than "luck" or mere fortuity.  Some guys are nails when the chips are down.  And Terran is one of those guys.