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Bubble Watch


Shuttlesworth

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The bad part about Providence getting the auto bid is it doesn't matter if they jump us as far as the First 4 goes - they can't play in the First 4 now, it's only for at large teams and the 4 lowest auto bid teams. So it's going to be tight.

 

Palm has SMU, BYU, Prov, and Tenn as his First 4 games teams, so Providence getting the auto means putting someone else in there. In his bracket, it'll probably be Dayton or Xavier, as he has them as 11 seeds and we're a 10.

 

But in the Bracket Matrix, the last four at-larges right now are NU, Xavier, BYU & Dayton. It's really tight between NU, Xavier & Tennessee, which is the 5th at large in the latest Matrix update.

 

Might be a little drama tomorrow after all.

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The thing about bracketmatrix is it's the composite average seed of all brackets. I like it and it's good for knowing where you stand in everyone's eyes but...tomorrow the only bracket that matters is the committee's. So while our bracketmatrix average seed is 10.88 is tomorrow's bracket gonna be the one that has us as a 9 seed or the one that has us as a 12 seed?

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The thing about bracketmatrix is it's the composite average seed of all brackets. I like it and it's good for knowing where you stand in everyone's eyes but...tomorrow the only bracket that matters is the committee's. So while our bracketmatrix average seed is 10.88 is tomorrow's bracket gonna be the one that has us as a 9 seed or the one that has us as a 12 seed?

Agreed - NU, Tenn & Xavier are basically tied in the Matrix, so who knows how it will actually shake out?

 

The other weakness of the Matrix I believe is that for teams that are not on a particular bracket, they're just ignored when compiling the average. So like Iowa is on 92 of 99 brackets. They're a 9.96 seed average on the 92 brackets, but the 7 brackets where they're out just don't count. So the 9.96 is a little high.

 

Tennessee is out on 8 of the 99 brackets after the latest update, so that skews their average upward a bit. It's really tight either way.

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The thing about bracketmatrix is it's the composite average seed of all brackets. I like it and it's good for knowing where you stand in everyone's eyes but...tomorrow the only bracket that matters is the committee's. So while our bracketmatrix average seed is 10.88 is tomorrow's bracket gonna be the one that has us as a 9 seed or the one that has us as a 12 seed?

Agreed - NU, Tenn & Xavier are basically tied in the Matrix, so who knows how it will actually shake out?

The other weakness of the Matrix I believe is that for teams that are not on a particular bracket, they're just ignored when compiling the average. So like Iowa is on 92 of 99 brackets. They're a 9.96 seed average on the 92 brackets, but the 7 brackets where they're out just don't count. So the 9.96 is a little high.

Tennessee is out on 8 of the 99 brackets after the latest update, so that skews their average upward a bit. It's really tight either way.

Good point about it ignoring brackets a team is left out of completely. Obviously if some people see a team as not being in the tournament at all, the committee could also easily take the stance that a team doesn't deserve a bid or have them below us. Like I said, it comes down to one bracket tomorrow evening.

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Even if we do get put in the play-in game, the only potential problem with it I see is playing Dayton. If we avoid them, then there are a number of reasons why it could be a good thing for OUR team.

1) With all the hype and known history that this team faces, the less time to think about this game, the better. We just gotta go out and play the way we are capable of, and if we do that I like our chances against any other play-in team.

2) Starting out the tournament against an opponent of equal or even lesser ability could help this team get the jitters out of their system. They will be nervous, no doubt. But beating a solid team in the first round could give this team a lot of confidence heading forward.

3) When we do win the play-in game, we will be warmed up and ready to go for the round of 64, while the team we're playing might still be feeling a little jittery just as we did against Ohio St. at the very beginning.

4) When we get to the round of 64, it will mean that we already have an NCAA tournament win under our belt. No more pressure, JUST GO PLAY. This team knows how to have fun, and when they play loose yet disciplined, I feel like they can make an extremely impressive run.

Now I'm not hoping to be one of the "Last 4 teams in", but regardless of where we end up, this team had one goal at the beginning of the season, "Not only to get to the NCAA Tournament, but win once we get there." LETS GET IT BOYS, its gonna be a blast.

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The play in game is not good for those of us trying to go to the first round game. Travel logistics nightmare.

Why? The first round is in Dayton. The second round games are elsewhere.

 

Quite a few reasons.  You cannot book the potential flight until we know if we are playing there.  If you fly to Dayton you don't know where to book the next flight to.  You cannot lock up hotel rooms since you don't know if we will be playing.  Those are just a few of the reasons but there are more. 

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The play in game is not good for those of us trying to go to the first round game. Travel logistics nightmare.

Why? The first round is in Dayton. The second round games are elsewhere.

Quite a few reasons. You cannot book the potential flight until we know if we are playing there. If you fly to Dayton you don't know where to book the next flight to. You cannot lock up hotel rooms since you don't know if we will be playing. Those are just a few of the reasons but there are more.

My point was the "play in" as everyone calls it is actually called the first round by the NCAA. The second round starts Thursday and Friday. Just a technicality, being a smartass. Since the first round is Dayton I was joking why it's hard to plan for travels when we know when it is.

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The play in game is not good for those of us trying to go to the first round game. Travel logistics nightmare.

Why? The first round is in Dayton. The second round games are elsewhere.
Quite a few reasons. You cannot book the potential flight until we know if we are playing there. If you fly to Dayton you don't know where to book the next flight to. You cannot lock up hotel rooms since you don't know if we will be playing. Those are just a few of the reasons but there are more.

My point was the "play in" as everyone calls it is actually called the first round by the NCAA. The second round starts Thursday and Friday. Just a technicality, being a smartass. Since the first round is Dayton I was joking why it's hard to plan for travels when we know when it is.

 

Gotcha and I agree.  It flew right over my head:)

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The team rankings stuff is good. The one concern I have is how that is is entirely possible that the committee thinks Tim Miles would be the best thing ever for the First Four. And they'd be right. Either way, best day in 16 years to be a Husker hoops fan.

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http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/nebraska-cornhuskers/bracketology

 

Rosenthal just tweeted this out.  Team Rankings stuff is completely data and metrics driven, but they have us as a 99.1% chance of being an at large with a #9 seed as our most likely seed.  Distribution is in the link.

 

OK, now I'm fired up. 

 

 

Compare ours to Iowa:  http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/iowa-hawkeyes/bracketology

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