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6-12 In the Big 10

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It's that "One Big Man Away" thing rearing its ugly head.  Much as I hate to say it, what we lack most is a consistent inside presence who can produce points in the paint and defend the other team's big men.  Smith gives us about 18 minutes a game.  I suppose he's probably fighting through some knee issues just to give us that much.  But we need that inside force.  We also need one more guy who can reliably stroke it from deep.  A guy better than 40% from beyond the arc who can spread the D would create some driving lanes the other guys could take advantage of.

+1 on the big man. IMO, though, what we are missing most is that true point guard that can penetrate and dish or take it to the rim. I really hope Tai is still going to be that guard -- he shows flashes but not consistency. I confess I had hoped for more from him this season. Maybe my expectations were unfair.

 

As far as someone to stroke it, what are the chances of that being Fuller or Wagner next season?

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http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Nebraska.html

 

8-10 now.  With just a touch over 80% chance of getting 7,8 or 9 conference wins.

 

49r, educate me about what this site mean's by the below "Prob Auto Bid"....which I would expect to mean probability that a team gets an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament....but the 20+% for Iowa, Mich and MSU tell me they mean something else....What?

The Husker's is 0.23%...while I think our chances are very slim...I would take a few bucks of action at 400/1.

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

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http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Nebraska.html

 

8-10 now.  With just a touch over 80% chance of getting 7,8 or 9 conference wins.

 

49r, educate me about what this site mean's by the below "Prob Auto Bid"....which I would expect to mean probability that a team gets an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament....but the 20+% for Iowa, Mich and MSU tell me they mean something else....What?

The Husker's is 0.23%...while I think our chances are very slim...I would take a few bucks of action at 400/1.

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

 

 

I'm not sure either to be honest.  But if I were to guess, I'd say that he probably means the odds on winning the conference tournament, and the "auto bid"?

 

For example, Arizona's number is right at 50%.

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Realtime RPI projecting us to 10-8.

 

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_148_Men.html

And like I've been saying, either we're good enough or we're not. 

 

I don't think Michigan State was a fluke.  The outcome was fortunate, but I think we're good enough to hang with them at their place even if we would lose.  I said 13.5 was too high for the line.  I thought we could keep them within striking distance and, if we did, we had a chance.  Winning might have been improbable but being in position at their house was not a fluke.

 

So, if we're good enough to hang with Michigan State on the road, we're good enough to win out at home.

 

I'm saying right now, we should win out.  And that includes beating Wisconsin.

 

And then we should win a game in the B1G tourney.  And that takes us to 19-13.  (I think.)

 

Ticket punched?  It's gotta be close.  Gotta be real close.  Pick up a road win at Illinois or Indiana OR an extra B1G tourney win and you gotta say it's a lock.

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It's always fun to dredge this thread up and watch everyone's attitude change as the season progressed...

 

RPI Forecast gives us a 20% chance of winning on Friday.

 

Final Record    W-L pctg.       Expected RPI    Probability
==========================================
22-11               66.67%          19.9                    1.65%
21-12               63.64%          31.6                    5.09%
20-12               62.50%          42.1                   19.29%
19-12               61.29%          55.0                   73.97%

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It's always fun to dredge this thread up and watch everyone's attitude change as the season progressed...

 

RPI Forecast gives us a 20% chance of winning on Friday.

 

Final Record    W-L pctg.       Expected RPI    Probability
==========================================
22-11               66.67%          19.9                    1.65%
21-12               63.64%          31.6                    5.09%
20-12               62.50%          42.1                   19.29%
19-12               61.29%          55.0                   73.97%

 

 

Actually they give us about a 26% chance.  All of those listed records besides 19-12 would require a win on Friday to achieve.  They give us a 1.65% chance of winning the conference tournament.  Lets get it done!

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Ah, you are correct!

 

I still think personally that's a tad low, but it's not like we haven't overcome bigger obstacles already anyway.

 

Absolutely.  On January 21st we had a 0.45% chance of getting to where we are right now according to that site.  I tend to agree with you that our chances are much better, even of winning the B1G tournament.

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It's always fun to dredge this thread up and watch everyone's attitude change as the season progressed...

 

RPI Forecast gives us a 20% chance of winning on Friday.

 

Final Record    W-L pctg.       Expected RPI    Probability
==========================================
22-11               66.67%          19.9                    1.65%
21-12               63.64%          31.6                    5.09%
20-12               62.50%          42.1                   19.29%
19-12               61.29%          55.0                   73.97%

 

 

Actually they give us about a 26% chance.  All of those listed records besides 19-12 would require a win on Friday to achieve.  They give us a 1.65% chance of winning the conference tournament.  Lets get it done!

 

Interesting, considering we don't even know which team we'll be playing yet.  Of course, they're probably factoring in the odds of the first round winner into this.

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It's always fun to dredge this thread up and watch everyone's attitude change as the season progressed...

 

RPI Forecast gives us a 20% chance of winning on Friday.

 

Final Record    W-L pctg.       Expected RPI    Probability
==========================================
22-11               66.67%          19.9                    1.65%
21-12               63.64%          31.6                    5.09%
20-12               62.50%          42.1                   19.29%
19-12               61.29%          55.0                   73.97%

 

 

Actually they give us about a 26% chance.  All of those listed records besides 19-12 would require a win on Friday to achieve.  They give us a 1.65% chance of winning the conference tournament.  Lets get it done!

 

Interesting, considering we don't even know which team we'll be playing yet.  Of course, they're probably factoring in the odds of the first round winner into this.

 

There's something screwy. Our current RPI is 41, but they're saying if we lose on Friday (presumably to OSU) our RPI will drop 10 spots? That's a huge drop for losing to a top 25 RPI team on a neutral floor.

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It's always fun to dredge this thread up and watch everyone's attitude change as the season progressed...

 

RPI Forecast gives us a 20% chance of winning on Friday.

 

Final Record    W-L pctg.       Expected RPI    Probability
==========================================
22-11               66.67%          19.9                    1.65%
21-12               63.64%          31.6                    5.09%
20-12               62.50%          42.1                   19.29%
19-12               61.29%          55.0                   73.97%

 

 

Actually they give us about a 26% chance.  All of those listed records besides 19-12 would require a win on Friday to achieve.  They give us a 1.65% chance of winning the conference tournament.  Lets get it done!

 

Interesting, considering we don't even know which team we'll be playing yet.  Of course, they're probably factoring in the odds of the first round winner into this.

 

There's something screwy. Our current RPI is 41, but they're saying if we lose on Friday (presumably to OSU) our RPI will drop 10 spots? That's a huge drop for losing to a top 25 RPI team on a neutral floor.

 

 

Is RPI Forecast the Ken Schimek of forecasters

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If we're going to go through the trouble of winning 7 more games to get 16 wins and make the NIT, then why don't we just win 9 more and make the dance? Serious question here. I mean, if we win 7 more our RPI is gonna be pretty nice with an extremely nice SOS. Even If we win 8, finish 9-9 in league, and 17 wins over all heading into the B1G tourney you would think we'd be bubble worthy. It was easy to look at our record before last night and say theres no way in hell we're getting anywhere close to 7 wins. And I suppose it's easy to come out of last nights win and freak out claiming we are gonna make the tournament. But if you just look at how we've played, how we've competed, despite youth, mistakes, and despite having the number 1 SOS of any other B1G team in B1G play and think of how much better this team is going to get, you have to think we could win more than a few more games. Could. The potential to do so is there. I'm just wondering why the aspirations at this point are to "maybe come from behind and maybe, maybe, maybe creep into the NIT"? Is it likely that we make the NIT? It's gonna take some more wins. Is it likely that we make the NCAAs? No way. But honestly if we are gonna be good enough to make the NIT, then we will only be another couple games away from serious NCAA consideration. In short, it's way to early to have thoughts that 'maybe we can sneak into the NIT'. I think we could accomplish a lot more as there's plenty of season left and the margin of wins needed between the NIT and NCAAs for us as a major conference team isn't that great.

 

That escalated quickly!  One of the reasons I love this board.

 

I just don't see a middling 9-9 B1G team making it.  See Iowa last year.  I think if our top 5 has a winning record in B1G play they will probably get in but I think the B1G only gets 5 at very most 6 teams in this year.  We are simply not going to win all of our "winnable" games.

 

You were wrong sir.... very very wrong :)

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If we're going to go through the trouble of winning 7 more games to get 16 wins and make the NIT, then why don't we just win 9 more and make the dance? Serious question here. I mean, if we win 7 more our RPI is gonna be pretty nice with an extremely nice SOS. Even If we win 8, finish 9-9 in league, and 17 wins over all heading into the B1G tourney you would think we'd be bubble worthy. It was easy to look at our record before last night and say theres no way in hell we're getting anywhere close to 7 wins. And I suppose it's easy to come out of last nights win and freak out claiming we are gonna make the tournament. But if you just look at how we've played, how we've competed, despite youth, mistakes, and despite having the number 1 SOS of any other B1G team in B1G play and think of how much better this team is going to get, you have to think we could win more than a few more games. Could. The potential to do so is there. I'm just wondering why the aspirations at this point are to "maybe come from behind and maybe, maybe, maybe creep into the NIT"? Is it likely that we make the NIT? It's gonna take some more wins. Is it likely that we make the NCAAs? No way. But honestly if we are gonna be good enough to make the NIT, then we will only be another couple games away from serious NCAA consideration. In short, it's way to early to have thoughts that 'maybe we can sneak into the NIT'. I think we could accomplish a lot more as there's plenty of season left and the margin of wins needed between the NIT and NCAAs for us as a major conference team isn't that great.

 

That escalated quickly!  One of the reasons I love this board.

 

I just don't see a middling 9-9 B1G team making it.  See Iowa last year.  I think if our top 5 has a winning record in B1G play they will probably get in but I think the B1G only gets 5 at very most 6 teams in this year.  We are simply not going to win all of our "winnable" games.

 

You were wrong sir.... very very wrong :)

 

 

I think I was right about everything...?

 

We would not have gotten in with 9-9.

 

And we didn't win all of our "winnable" games.  But luckily we won a couple of "unwinnable"

 

What part was I wrong about?

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