6-12 In the Big 10

[Norm Peterson]

We won 5 games last year.

We are more talented this year.

The Big Ten is not as tough as it was last year.

Our schedule appears easier at this point.

 

We shouldn't win fewer than 6 games, in my opinion. I would actually consider that a massive letdown, not that I'd be calling for anyone's job. But I would just be really disappointed.

What you say is true.  I believe we are more talented this year. 

 

But what you've left out is the experience factor and the fact that we're trying to blend a bunch of new players together who don't have experience playing together.

 

In spite of our limited roster last year, Ubel and Gallegos were in their 4th years with the program.  Almeida was in his third year.  Talley and Rivers were in their second year.  The only truly "new" players were Parker and Shields (and, well, Vooch.)

 

This year, while Gallegos is in his 5th year, he's only been a part-time starter.  The main guys getting the minutes and the touches would include Petteway, Shields and Pitchford, each of whom are only in their 2nd year on the team and two of whom are in their first year of competition with the team.

 

Last year, we started 2 seniors, a junior, a sophomore and a freshman with another senior among the first players off the bench.  That's not tremendously experienced, but it's more experience than 1 senior, 3 sophomores and a true freshman, with a junior first off the bench, which is what we have this year.

 

I made a very public mistake a few years ago discounting the value of age and experience for a basketball team.  Don't make the same mistake I made. 

[Handy Johnson]

I had us at 10-8 when it started, and I'm stickin' with it. ( until that's mathematically impossible or I sober up)

[Norm Peterson]

Just another little statistical tidbit about our experience level last year vs. this year:

 

Last year, SENIORS accounted for 49% of our scoring.

 

Seniors and juniors combined accounted for 71% of our scoring last year.

 

This year, a SENIOR accounts for 9.5% of our scoring.

 

Senior and juniors combined account for 34% of our scoring this year.

[49r]

Today's RPIForecast breakdown of Nebraska's remaining schedule.  Notice they don't have 22-8 as a possibility...

 

Final Record --- Expected RPI -- Probability

21-9 ------------ 26.0 ------------- 0.01%
20-10 ----------- 38.8 ------------- 0.04%
19-11 ----------- 47.1 ------------- 0.45%
18-12 ----------- 56.5 -------------  2.11%
17-13 ----------- 67.3 -------------  6.58%
16-14 ----------- 79.4 ------------- 15.12%
15-15 ----------- 93.7 -------------  22.38%
14-16 ----------- 110.3 -------------23.21%
13-17 ----------- 128.4 -------------18.04%
12-18 ----------- 147.5 -------------8.70%
11-19 ----------- 165.5 -------------2.81%
10-20 ----------- 183.4 -------------0.52%
9-21 ------------ 198.0 -------------0.02%

[Norm Peterson]

So, they say there's a 15% chance that we win 7 more games?

[49r]

So, they say there's a 15% chance that we win 7 more games?

 

Yep, and that would be NIT lock territory IMO.  More importantly there's about a 40% chance we get to 15-15 or higher, which means 1-1 in the B1G tourney for an almost assured NIT bid.

 

I'm saying there's a chance...

[jdostal]

The EV from those probabilities is 14.37 wins.

[49r]

14.37 and 15.63?

 

So we'd only need to convert 1.63 more games from losses to wins to finish over 500! 

[huskerbaseball13]

 

So, they say there's a 15% chance that we win 7 more games?

 

Yep, and that would be NIT lock territory IMO.  More importantly there's about a 40% chance we get to 15-15 or higher, which means 1-1 in the B1G tourney for an almost assured NIT bid.

 

I'm saying there's a chance...

 

 

 

If we can win 2 out of the next 3...making the NIT is still doable.  Would be awesome if this team got to play in the NIT and build upon that going into the next year. 

[jdostal]

Assuming we don't get into the NIT, we should take any postseason play possible.

[PimpMario]

16 is our magic number.  We need to get to 16 wins which gurantees us at worst a .500 winning percentage.  We still need to find 7 more wins.  That is a tall, tall tall, order with only 14 games left.

[huskerbaseball13]

16 is our magic number.  We need to get to 16 wins which gurantees us at worst a .500 winning percentage.  We still need to find 7 more wins.  That is a tall, tall tall, order with only 14 games left.

 

@PSU

Indiana

@Northwestern

Illinois

PSU

Purdue

Northwestern

 

Wishful thinking maybe?  Possibly.....damn that UM win would have been huge!

[uneblinstu]

16 is our magic number.  We need to get to 16 wins which gurantees us at worst a .500 winning percentage.  We still need to find 7 more wins.  That is a tall, tall tall, order with only 14 games left.

Tall order, not impossible.

[Silverbacked1]

Let's start with PSU on Thursday.

[ajb5856]

If we're going to go through the trouble of winning 7 more games to get 16 wins and make the NIT, then why don't we just win 9 more and make the dance? Serious question here. I mean, if we win 7 more our RPI is gonna be pretty nice with an extremely nice SOS. Even If we win 8, finish 9-9 in league, and 17 wins over all heading into the B1G tourney you would think we'd be bubble worthy. It was easy to look at our record before last night and say theres no way in hell we're getting anywhere close to 7 wins. And I suppose it's easy to come out of last nights win and freak out claiming we are gonna make the tournament. But if you just look at how we've played, how we've competed, despite youth, mistakes, and despite having the number 1 SOS of any other B1G team in B1G play and think of how much better this team is going to get, you have to think we could win more than a few more games. Could. The potential to do so is there. I'm just wondering why the aspirations at this point are to "maybe come from behind and maybe, maybe, maybe creep into the NIT"? Is it likely that we make the NIT? It's gonna take some more wins. Is it likely that we make the NCAAs? No way. But honestly if we are gonna be good enough to make the NIT, then we will only be another couple games away from serious NCAA consideration. In short, it's way to early to have thoughts that 'maybe we can sneak into the NIT'. I think we could accomplish a lot more as there's plenty of season left and the margin of wins needed between the NIT and NCAAs for us as a major conference team isn't that great.

[uneblinstu]

Why do we do this to ourselves every time...?

[PimpMario]

If we're going to go through the trouble of winning 7 more games to get 16 wins and make the NIT, then why don't we just win 9 more and make the dance? Serious question here. I mean, if we win 7 more our RPI is gonna be pretty nice with an extremely nice SOS. Even If we win 8, finish 9-9 in league, and 17 wins over all heading into the B1G tourney you would think we'd be bubble worthy. It was easy to look at our record before last night and say theres no way in hell we're getting anywhere close to 7 wins. And I suppose it's easy to come out of last nights win and freak out claiming we are gonna make the tournament. But if you just look at how we've played, how we've competed, despite youth, mistakes, and despite having the number 1 SOS of any other B1G team in B1G play and think of how much better this team is going to get, you have to think we could win more than a few more games. Could. The potential to do so is there. I'm just wondering why the aspirations at this point are to "maybe come from behind and maybe, maybe, maybe creep into the NIT"? Is it likely that we make the NIT? It's gonna take some more wins. Is it likely that we make the NCAAs? No way. But honestly if we are gonna be good enough to make the NIT, then we will only be another couple games away from serious NCAA consideration. In short, it's way to early to have thoughts that 'maybe we can sneak into the NIT'. I think we could accomplish a lot more as there's plenty of season left and the margin of wins needed between the NIT and NCAAs for us as a major conference team isn't that great.

 

That escalated quickly!  One of the reasons I love this board.

 

I just don't see a middling 9-9 B1G team making it.  See Iowa last year.  I think if our top 5 has a winning record in B1G play they will probably get in but I think the B1G only gets 5 at very most 6 teams in this year.  We are simply not going to win all of our "winnable" games.

[hskr4life]

 

If we're going to go through the trouble of winning 7 more games to get 16 wins and make the NIT, then why don't we just win 9 more and make the dance? Serious question here. I mean, if we win 7 more our RPI is gonna be pretty nice with an extremely nice SOS. Even If we win 8, finish 9-9 in league, and 17 wins over all heading into the B1G tourney you would think we'd be bubble worthy. It was easy to look at our record before last night and say theres no way in hell we're getting anywhere close to 7 wins. And I suppose it's easy to come out of last nights win and freak out claiming we are gonna make the tournament. But if you just look at how we've played, how we've competed, despite youth, mistakes, and despite having the number 1 SOS of any other B1G team in B1G play and think of how much better this team is going to get, you have to think we could win more than a few more games. Could. The potential to do so is there. I'm just wondering why the aspirations at this point are to "maybe come from behind and maybe, maybe, maybe creep into the NIT"? Is it likely that we make the NIT? It's gonna take some more wins. Is it likely that we make the NCAAs? No way. But honestly if we are gonna be good enough to make the NIT, then we will only be another couple games away from serious NCAA consideration. In short, it's way to early to have thoughts that 'maybe we can sneak into the NIT'. I think we could accomplish a lot more as there's plenty of season left and the margin of wins needed between the NIT and NCAAs for us as a major conference team isn't that great.

 

That escalated quickly!  One of the reasons I love this board.

 

I just don't see a middling 9-9 B1G team making it.  See Iowa last year.  I think if our top 5 has a winning record in B1G play they will probably get in but I think the B1G only gets 5 at very most 6 teams in this year.  We are simply not going to win all of our "winnable" games.

 

 

Difference between Iowa and Us would be SOS and RPI... 

[ajb5856]

If we're going to go through the trouble of winning 7 more games to get 16 wins and make the NIT, then why don't we just win 9 more and make the dance? Serious question here. I mean, if we win 7 more our RPI is gonna be pretty nice with an extremely nice SOS. Even If we win 8, finish 9-9 in league, and 17 wins over all heading into the B1G tourney you would think we'd be bubble worthy. It was easy to look at our record before last night and say theres no way in hell we're getting anywhere close to 7 wins. And I suppose it's easy to come out of last nights win and freak out claiming we are gonna make the tournament. But if you just look at how we've played, how we've competed, despite youth, mistakes, and despite having the number 1 SOS of any other B1G team in B1G play and think of how much better this team is going to get, you have to think we could win more than a few more games. Could. The potential to do so is there. I'm just wondering why the aspirations at this point are to "maybe come from behind and maybe, maybe, maybe creep into the NIT"? Is it likely that we make the NIT? It's gonna take some more wins. Is it likely that we make the NCAAs? No way. But honestly if we are gonna be good enough to make the NIT, then we will only be another couple games away from serious NCAA consideration. In short, it's way to early to have thoughts that 'maybe we can sneak into the NIT'. I think we could accomplish a lot more as there's plenty of season left and the margin of wins needed between the NIT and NCAAs for us as a major conference team isn't that great.

That escalated quickly! One of the reasons I love this board.

I just don't see a middling 9-9 B1G team making it. See Iowa last year. I think if our top 5 has a winning record in B1G play they will probably get in but I think the B1G only gets 5 at very most 6 teams in this year. We are simply not going to win all of our "winnable" games.

Difference between Iowa and Us would be SOS and RPI...

Well now....sorry for bringing up the four letter acronym when we were talking about the three letter one. Notice that I used language like "could" and "the potential is there". I'm not holding out all hope for an NCAA berth this season. I'm more just wondering why we are all clinging to to a .00000000000001% chance of making the NIT when there are so many games left when there's nearly just as good a chance that we go on a roll and make the real tourney. We went from zero league wins to 1. There's many more left to get.

[GoBigRed]

Looking back, how brutal was our non-conference schedule? UMass (neutral) and Cincinnati (road) are in the top 15. Creighton (road) will be in the top 20 come next Monday. Our only "bad" loss was UAB (neutral), who is 12-5 with a win over North Carolina and two losses in overtime. Really too bad we couldn't get one of those wins, particularly UMass. We were right there. On realtime our SOS is #16, and think how much higher it could be had we not played #348 The Citadel, #331 South Carolina State, #274 Western Illinois and #214 Northern Illinois. Oddly, we struggled against 3 of the 4 worst teams on our schedule. I know Miles' strength is scheduling, but hopefully he can continue to find schools that will be around the high 100s that are just as beatable, like Arkansas State, UMKC, Chicago State, Utah Valley, Arkansas-Little Rock, etc...Western Illinois was good last year, but the other 3 were all in the 300s.

[hhcmatt]

Why do we do this to ourselves every time...?

 

Acceleration Force?

 

[ajb5856]

Why do we do this to ourselves every time...?

Acceleration Force?

And those are so much fun!

[Bugeaters1]

If we're going to go through the trouble of winning 7 more games to get 16 wins and make the NIT, then why don't we just win 9 more and make the dance? Serious question here. I mean, if we win 7 more our RPI is gonna be pretty nice with an extremely nice SOS. Even If we win 8, finish 9-9 in league, and 17 wins over all heading into the B1G tourney you would think we'd be bubble worthy. It was easy to look at our record before last night and say theres no way in hell we're getting anywhere close to 7 wins. And I suppose it's easy to come out of last nights win and freak out claiming we are gonna make the tournament. But if you just look at how we've played, how we've competed, despite youth, mistakes, and despite having the number 1 SOS of any other B1G team in B1G play and think of how much better this team is going to get, you have to think we could win more than a few more games. Could. The potential to do so is there. I'm just wondering why the aspirations at this point are to "maybe come from behind and maybe, maybe, maybe creep into the NIT"? Is it likely that we make the NIT? It's gonna take some more wins. Is it likely that we make the NCAAs? No way. But honestly if we are gonna be good enough to make the NIT, then we will only be another couple games away from serious NCAA consideration. In short, it's way to early to have thoughts that 'maybe we can sneak into the NIT'. I think we could accomplish a lot more as there's plenty of season left and the margin of wins needed between the NIT and NCAAs for us as a major conference team isn't that great.

This from Sean Callahan

[ajb5856]

If we're going to go through the trouble of winning 7 more games to get 16 wins and make the NIT, then why don't we just win 9 more and make the dance? Serious question here. I mean, if we win 7 more our RPI is gonna be pretty nice with an extremely nice SOS. Even If we win 8, finish 9-9 in league, and 17 wins over all heading into the B1G tourney you would think we'd be bubble worthy. It was easy to look at our record before last night and say theres no way in hell we're getting anywhere close to 7 wins. And I suppose it's easy to come out of last nights win and freak out claiming we are gonna make the tournament. But if you just look at how we've played, how we've competed, despite youth, mistakes, and despite having the number 1 SOS of any other B1G team in B1G play and think of how much better this team is going to get, you have to think we could win more than a few more games. Could. The potential to do so is there. I'm just wondering why the aspirations at this point are to "maybe come from behind and maybe, maybe, maybe creep into the NIT"? Is it likely that we make the NIT? It's gonna take some more wins. Is it likely that we make the NCAAs? No way. But honestly if we are gonna be good enough to make the NIT, then we will only be another couple games away from serious NCAA consideration. In short, it's way to early to have thoughts that 'maybe we can sneak into the NIT'. I think we could accomplish a lot more as there's plenty of season left and the margin of wins needed between the NIT and NCAAs for us as a major conference team isn't that great.

This from Sean Callahan

https://twitter.com/Sean_Callahan/status/425748517890445312

Exactly. Win enough games to be in consideration for the NIT and we will also be in consideration for NCAA, possibly.

[49r]

RealTime RPI has us going 6-7 the rest of the way to get to 7-11 and 15-15.  And that includes a loss at PSU and later on at Northwestern.  I believe those are both winnable for us.  Heck, even at Indiana isn't out of the question for us, IMO.