KenPom 2013-2014 KenPom Rankings Thread

[HuskerPower #nato73]

This looks to be our highest Kenpom ranking this year.  And that's better than any ranking we had last year.  But last year's finish was better, IIRC, than any ranking we had the year before.

 

In other words, this would be our highest Kenpom ranking in how long?  How long has it been since we've been in the top 75?

Well Norm, since I have a subscription and am not ready to tackle the stuff on my desk:

 

This year we were around 70 before our tournament losses

2013:  We were never below 127th and finished at 130th

2012:  Started in the 50's (not sure why) and ended at 150

2011:  This was our best recent year below 100 all year.  And at one point we were 14-4 (2-2) and had a KenPom rating of 34. Then we lost to Texas Tech and slid up from there (I remember that pain)  We gradually then stumbled off the bubble with the road loss to Colorado and tourney loss to Okla State.

 

Before 2011 there is no data on what we were ranked going into a game.  Well there probably is but you have to dig for it and I have to work now.

[Norm Peterson]

For whatever reason, and maybe 49r can explain this, but we moved up to #71 after our game last night with 31 of 60 games reported.  Then, as of this morning, we've dropped back 2 spots to #73.  Which is one ahead of where we were yesterday at this time but still it's a bit puzzling.  Did teams leapfrog us because of even more significant wins last night?  Or did some of the teams we've previously played lose last night, weakening our SOS?

 

49r?  Any answers?

[Norm Peterson]

Also, we did not leapfrog Indiana in the standings as they remain #64 for Kenpom.  So we're still in 8th place.  Which is a damn sight better than last.

[HuskerActuary]

For whatever reason, and maybe 49r can explain this, but we moved up to #71 after our game last night with 31 of 60 games reported.  Then, as of this morning, we've dropped back 2 spots to #73.  Which is one ahead of where we were yesterday at this time but still it's a bit puzzling.  Did teams leapfrog us because of even more significant wins last night?  Or did some of the teams we've previously played lose last night, weakening our SOS?

 

49r?  Any answers?

Essentially, we performed as KenPom expected us to (maybe just a touch better). We beat a team that is barely better than us, at home, by a few points. I'm not surprised we didn't go up.

[49r]

Norm asked the question, and HuskerActuary answered, but I'll add a little more to the puzzle of "why did we win against a higher rated opponent and not move up in the rankings".

 

Yes, it's true that the outcome of the game was as expected, and therefore we weren't going to get much of a bump out of beating Indiana.  But if you look at our opponents, and especially the ones ranked ahead of us in the B1G, the losses against lower echelon teams in the conference are starting to catch up to them.  Every one of the teams ahead of us in the league except for MSU has started shuffling down spots.  Creighton has dropped.  Georgia and UMass have dropped.  Even Cincinnati with their impressive road win over Louisville has remained at about the same spot in the rankings.

 

So, with all that shuffling down in the rankings for teams on our schedule, it's easy to see that we really needed to win last night just to maintain our spot.  Which is still #8.  But I'll take it.

 

Here is today's KenPom update:

 

Kenpom rankings as of 1-31-14.
==============================

B1G (3-5):
5. Iowa - L
7. Michigan State
10. Michigan - L
21. Wisconsin
22. Ohio State - L, W
32. Minnesota - W

64. Indiana - W

73. Nebraska

82. Illinois

89. Penn State - L

98. Purdue - L

120. Northwestern

Non-Conference (8-4):
200. Florida Gulf Coast - W
223. Western Illinois - W
327. South Carolina State - W

---Charleston Classic---
37. UMass - L
125. UAB - L
129. Georgia - W

257. Northern Illinois - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
76. Miami - W

4. @Creighton - L
165. Arkansas State - W
349. The Citadel - W
19. @Cincinnati - L

Other teams of interest:
74. Maryland (12-9)
141. Omaha (12-9)

205. Rutgers (8-13)

 

[49r]

Taken from RPI Forecast this morning.

 

Odds are VERY favorable now for us to get to the magic .500 mark and the NIT.

 

Final Record=====Expected RPI=====Probability

20-10----------------35.5-------------------0.02%
19-11----------------43.0-------------------0.64%
18-12----------------53.0-------------------4.42%
17-13----------------64.4------------------14.11%
16-14----------------77.5------------------24.34%
15-15----------------92.3------------------27.59%
14-16---------------109.0------------------18.99%
13-17---------------128.2-------------------8.08%
12-18---------------147.2-------------------1.61%
11-19---------------164.8-------------------0.19%

[hhcmatt]

Taken from RPI Forecast this morning.

 

Odds are VERY favorable now for us to get to the magic .500 mark and the NIT.

 

 

In other words, a 71.13% chance at .500 or better.  I really like those odds.

 

 

Yes, it's true that the outcome of the game was as expected, and therefore we weren't going to get much of a bump out of beating Indiana.  But if you look at our opponents, and especially the ones ranked ahead of us in the B1G, the losses against lower echelon teams in the conference are starting to catch up to them.  Every one of the teams ahead of us in the league except for MSU has started shuffling down spots.  Creighton has dropped.  Georgia and UMass have dropped.  Even Cincinnati with their impressive road win over Louisville has remained at about the same spot in the rankings.

 

Maryland beat Miami at home and they've dropped a couple of spots...probably by not beating them by enough.

[Norm Peterson]

Well, last night we moved up to #71 before dropping back to #73.  I just thought that was interesting.  There was more up and down movement during the night than what we ended up, so if you just look at where we wound up today, you'd say we didn't move much.  But if you looked at where we stood immediately after the game, we move up 3 before dropping back 2 for a net change of 1.  That's what I found interesting. 

[jdostal]

Taken from RPI Forecast this morning.

 

Odds are VERY favorable now for us to get to the magic .500 mark and the NIT.

 

Final Record=====Expected RPI=====Probability

20-10----------------35.5-------------------0.02%

19-11----------------43.0-------------------0.64%

18-12----------------53.0-------------------4.42%

17-13----------------64.4------------------14.11%

16-14----------------77.5------------------24.34%

15-15----------------92.3------------------27.59%

14-16---------------109.0------------------18.99%

13-17---------------128.2-------------------8.08%

12-18---------------147.2-------------------1.61%

11-19---------------164.8-------------------0.19%

 

Expected record is 15.28-14.72

[Norm Peterson]

 

Taken from RPI Forecast this morning.

 

Odds are VERY favorable now for us to get to the magic .500 mark and the NIT.

 

Final Record=====Expected RPI=====Probability

20-10----------------35.5-------------------0.02%

19-11----------------43.0-------------------0.64%

18-12----------------53.0-------------------4.42%

17-13----------------64.4------------------14.11%

16-14----------------77.5------------------24.34%

15-15----------------92.3------------------27.59%

14-16---------------109.0------------------18.99%

13-17---------------128.2-------------------8.08%

12-18---------------147.2-------------------1.61%

11-19---------------164.8-------------------0.19%

 

Expected record is 15.28-14.72

 

So that's close to 15-15 but slight chance of 16-14.  Either way, NIT is a strong possibility.  Amiright?

[throwback]

Yeah I'd think NIT is a good possibility if they can hang around 15, 16 wins. Last year three of the "last four in" had RPIs in the 70s and one in the low 80s, so that's probably more important than total wins, since there's no longer an "at least .500 record" requirement for the NIT. Of course if we end up below .500, it's not likely our RPI will be good enough either. 

 

It'll also depend on how many upsets there are in those small conference tournaments. I'd say 16 wins we're 80/20 "in" the NIT, 15 wins we're on the bubble.

[hhctony]

I'd agree with throwback on this one. If you can get to 16-14 and then figure out a way to win one at the B1G Tournament you are near lock for the NIT. That said, given how young this team is, I'd love to see them play in any post season tournament to be honest. I really can't believe that we are talking about an NIT bid this late in the season given how 'new' this team is. Amazing.

[kleitus]

What that says to me is that we're looking at about 5% chance at an NCAA bid... not impossible but not good odds.

 

18 wins plus 1 in the tournament puts us probably in the low 40's.  2 puts us at 20 wins and that's going to be hard to keep out with 10 wins or more in the toughest conference in the country.

 

Hey, I can dream right?

[hskr4life]

14 percent chance at making tournie and a win in conference gets us in IMO

[kleitus]

don't buy it unless we win 2 in tournament and play the third REALLY close...  RPI too low, even if we are in toughest conference

[Norm Peterson]

What that says to me is that we're looking at about 5% chance at an NCAA bid... not impossible but not good odds.

 

18 wins plus 1 in the tournament puts us probably in the low 40's.  2 puts us at 20 wins and that's going to be hard to keep out with 10 wins or more in the toughest conference in the country.

 

Hey, I can dream right?

To get to 18 wins before the conference tourney, we'd need 7 more wins than we have right now.

 

We already have 3 wins in conference.  If we somehow manage to find 7 more wins (and I am not for a moment saying we will) then we'll be at 10-8 in the conference and that would put us squarely in the top half of the league.  And then a win in the Big 10 tourney?

 

I cannot for a moment imagine that we would be excluded from the NCAA tourney if we obtained that kind of resume.  Not that we will.  But if we did.  Just sayin.

[doc1394]

What that says to me is that we're looking at about 5% chance at an NCAA bid... not impossible but not good odds.

18 wins plus 1 in the tournament puts us probably in the low 40's. 2 puts us at 20 wins and that's going to be hard to keep out with 10 wins or more in the toughest conference in the country.

Hey, I can dream right?

To get to 18 wins before the conference tourney, we'd need 7 more wins than we have right now.

We already have 3 wins in conference. If we somehow manage to find 7 more wins (and I am not for a moment saying we will) then we'll be at 10-8 in the conference and that would put us squarely in the top half of the league. And then a win in the Big 10 tourney?

I cannot for a moment imagine that we would be excluded from the NCAA tourney if we obtained that kind of resume. Not that we will. But if we did. Just sayin.

What would that take? Win all 5 home games left vs Illinois, northwestern, Purdue, penn state, and Wisconsin? Also 2 road wins vs northwestern and Illinois?

It's certainly a long shot, but not impossible. Very very little room for error. A win over michigan would definitely make that more feasible

[Concrete]

18 wins would mean we finish 10-4 over our last 14 games with wins over 3-5 tournament teams in that stretch + 10-8 in conference play.  We would absolutely be in the tournament, possibly even with a 1st round big ten tournament exit.

 

That said, the chances of that happening are about 1% IMO.  This team is getting a lot better and has a great future if they stick together, but I highly doubt we've turned that big of a corner so quickly.

[AuroranHusker]

18 wins would mean we finish 10-4 over our last 14 games with wins over 3-5 tournament teams in that stretch + 10-8 in conference play.  We would absolutely be in the tournament, possibly even with a 1st round big ten tournament exit.

 

That said, the chances of that happening are about 1% IMO.  This team is getting a lot better and has a great future if they stick together, but I highly doubt we've turned that big of a corner so quickly.

 

It will be fun to see us find out for sure on the court over the next month or so. Wouldn't it be great to get that elusive big dance victory when no one expected it in year 2 of Miles & Co.???

[jdw]

I would say our chances are better than these projections because they are based on who we have been not who we are and i think we would all agree we are improving .

[lanigan123]

We must get to 20 wins, if we do so, I think we can make it, I don't think we have a shot, Michigan and PSU keep us out IMO.

[throwback]

I think the number for NCAAs is 19 total wins to be right on the bubble, whether that's 18+1 in the conf tourney, 17+2, or 16+3. Under those scenarios NU would be 7-3 or 6-4 over its last 10 and several games over .500 over the last half of the season. Plus we'd have to have beaten several of the teams we'd be in direct competition with in the Big Ten for those bids. Very small chance of getting to 19, but not impossible.

 

Having said that, I'm not sure there are any guarantees at this point, because the way the Big Ten is shaping up through the first half of league play is basically a 10-car pileup after the Michigan schools. If it continues this way, the NCAA selection committee will have a very difficult time trying to sort out how to award bids to Big Ten teams.

 

I mean if NW holds on to its early 10-pt lead at Minny today, they'll be alone in 4th place at 5-5.(EDIT: NW wins by 1, so they're all alone in 4th place.) Let that sink it for a bit and then try to think about how the NCAA would handle that type of scenario it it was still in place at the end of the season.

 

As far as NIT, there's no chance NU receives a bid just because of big crowds. Won't happen. They'll have to earn it, as the NIT selection is as transparent, if not more transparent, than the NCAA selection these days. You have to have the RPI to deserve it. And if our RPI is in the 70s and we're one of the last teams in, we won't get a home game, as we'll be seeded in the lower half, so the possibility of a sellout won't play a significant role. It may play a role as to whether we'd get a 4 seed vs a 5 seed and get one home game, but not in whether we're invited.

 

Now the CBI is a whole 'nother story. They'll take NU in a heartbeat, make them a "#1" seed and give them every home game they can. 

[AuroranHusker]

I think the number for NCAAs is 19 total wins to be right on the bubble, whether that's 18+1 in the conf tourney, 17+2, or 16+3. Under those scenarios NU would be 7-3 or 6-4 over its last 10 and several games over .500 over the last half of the season. Plus we'd have to have beaten several of the teams we'd be in direct competition with in the Big Ten for those bids. Very small chance of getting to 19, but not impossible.

 

Having said that, I'm not sure there are any guarantees at this point, because the way the Big Ten is shaping up through the first half of league play is basically a 10-car pileup after the Michigan schools. If it continues this way, the NCAA selection committee will have a very difficult time trying to sort out how to award bids to Big Ten teams.

 

I mean if NW holds on to its early 10-pt lead at Minny today, they'll be alone in 4th place at 5-5. Let that sink it for a bit and then try to think about how the NCAA would handle that type of scenario it it was still in place at the end of the season.

 

As far as NIT, there's no chance NU receives a bid just because of big crowds. Won't happen. They'll have to earn it, as the NIT selection is as transparent, if not more transparent, than the NCAA selection these days. You have to have the RPI to deserve it. And if our RPI is in the 70s and we're one of the last teams in, we won't get a home game, as we'll be seeded in the lower half, so the possibility of a sellout won't play a significant role. It may play a role as to whether we'd get a 4 seed vs a 5 seed and get one home game, but not in whether we're invited.

 

Now the CBI is a whole 'nother story. They'll take NU in a heartbeat, make them a "#1" seed and give them every home game they can. 

 

All excellent points. IFF, and that's a big "if" (and in 'if and only if'), Nebraska can win most (or better yet, "ALL") of the games they're supposed to get (whether home or away) and then grab a couple against the upper-echelon teams (MI, WI, MSU et al) in the regular season or post-season tourney, I believe NU will be firmly on the NCAA bubble. And, wouldn't that be fun to 'live the dream' of that 1st big dance victory when none of us really expected it THIS season?!?

[throwback]

And, wouldn't that be fun to 'live the dream; of that 1st big dance victory when none of us really expected it THIS season?!?

 

I'd take it 

[Norm Peterson]

I know you're a busy guy, buuuuut ...

 

time for an update?  I see we slid back to 76th after the team we beat beat the team we lost to.

 

But Kenny still has us 8th in the league, which is a damn sight better than last.  (Which, right now, belongs to the team in 4th place, standings-wise.)