Bracketology 2024/2025

[Nebrasketball1979]

27 minutes ago, Silverbacked1 said:

Did last nights loss hurt us much?

I would chalk it more up to a missed opportunity.  Absolutely must get one out of the next two to stay on track and not dig another big hole 

[millerhusker]

29 minutes ago, Silverbacked1 said:

Did last nights loss hurt us much?

Not on paper. But it definitely puts more pressure on each game going forward. All you had to do was hold serve at home and you'd be dancing. Now, you likely need a road game. And might need two to feel comfortable if you don't beat Michigan at home. And absolutely cannot lose to Minnesota. The radio and podcast people have been talking as if Penn St and Northwestern are automatic wins and they are wrong. I've been more nervous for this upcoming road stint than the PNW one, by far. 

[hskr4life]

On 2/14/2025 at 12:12 PM, Silverbacked1 said:

Did last nights loss hurt us much?

 

Hurt-- no it did not. A Q1 loss is never going to hurt. However, it just doesn't help you at all to lose. As someone mentioned, more of a missed opportunity.

 

Numbers wise-- we took a small dent, but no major drop for sure.

 

Beat PSU, Minny and steal one along the way and we'll be dancing. That's the recipe. Beat PSU and Northwestern and you are playing Michigan at home for a chance to lock in your spot.

[hskr4life]

Our 6 Q1 wins put us in a tie for 11th best in the nation in terms of number of Q1 wins. There are just 18 teams with 6 or more Q1 wins. Our six wins put us in the same company as Purdue, Mississippi St, Oregon, Wisconsin, Maryland, Houston, and Michigan.

 

We officially passed Baylor, KU, Ole Miss, West Virginia, Mizzou, Creighton, Michigan St, Marquette, UCONN, Duke, Florida, and Memphis in terms of number of Q1 wins.

[Swan88]

On this text, we are in 40th (last) place, but we have wins over these teams ahead of us on that list (Creighton, UCLA, Illinois, Oregon & Ohio State.) and played two close games against Maryland:

 

[royalfan]

Ohio st in the last spot to remain a quad 1 win.  We need them to play well.  

[brfrad]

2 hours ago, royalfan said:

Ohio st in the last spot to remain a quad 1 win.  We need them to play well.  

We do need them to play well except when they play us.  That's going to be a weird circumstance.   If we somehow find a way to win on the road, we would gain a Quad 1 win but potentially lose a Quad 1 in our home win over them.  I would rather just win the game and hope OSU can stay in the top 30.  Even if they don't, you can't be upset with another Quad 1 road win.

[Norm Peterson]

OK, all you guys who break this stuff down, if we could flip one close L to a W or eliminate one blowout loss and change it to at or near the spread, which one game hurts our resume the most and if you flipped it to either a W (in the event it was a close L) or a roughly expected margin of defeat would improve our standing? And by how much?

 

Just curious. Would it help more to eliminate a blowout in one of the road games where we got boat-raced or flip a close L to a W?

[Norm Peterson]

20 hours ago, brfrad said:

We do need them to play well except when they play us.  That's going to be a weird circumstance.   If we somehow find a way to win on the road, we would gain a Quad 1 win but potentially lose a Quad 1 in our home win over them.  I would rather just win the game and hope OSU can stay in the top 30.  Even if they don't, you can't be upset with another Quad 1 road win.

 

The other alternative is we beat Michigan at home and just don't get run out of the gym on the road at tOSU.

 

If we win out at home and keep it close at tOSU, we're in, right?

[hskr4life]

This is wild.

[hskr4life]

13 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

The other alternative is we beat Michigan at home and just don't get run out of the gym on the road at tOSU.

 

If we win out at home and keep it close at tOSU, we're in, right?

Oklahoma is in 95 of 97 brackets on BM with a conference record of 3-9 and a 16-9 record overall. 
 

Beat PSU and Minny and were probably locked at least into Dayton. Every other win would be for seeding.

[hhcmatt]

27 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

OK, all you guys who break this stuff down, if we could flip one close L to a W or eliminate one blowout loss and change it to at or near the spread, which one game hurts our resume the most and if you flipped it to either a W (in the event it was a close L) or a roughly expected margin of defeat would improve our standing? And by how much?

 

Just curious. Would it help more to eliminate a blowout in one of the road games where we got boat-raced or flip a close L to a W?

 

Flip a close L to a W

[Crush78]

30 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

OK, all you guys who break this stuff down, if we could flip one close L to a W or eliminate one blowout loss and change it to at or near the spread, which one game hurts our resume the most and if you flipped it to either a W (in the event it was a close L) or a roughly expected margin of defeat would improve our standing? And by how much?

 

Just curious. Would it help more to eliminate a blowout in one of the road games where we got boat-raced or flip a close L to a W?

Either our best close loss (@maryland) or our worse (Rutgers) would move our profile the most. 

[hskr4life]

4 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Flip a close L to a W

Without running numbers, I might have to go with @ Maryland.

 

Would flip our Q1 record to 7-6, give us a 3rd Q1A road win, and we’d be sitting at 10 Q1/2 wins on the year. Not to mentioned we’d be sitting at 18 wins with our magic number likely to be 19.

[hhcmatt]

1 minute ago, hskr4life said:

Without running numbers, I might have to go with @ Maryland.

 

Would flip our Q1 record to 7-6, give us a 3rd Q1A road win, and we’d be sitting at 10 Q1/2 wins on the year. Not to mentioned we’d be sitting at 18 wins with our magic number likely to be 19.

 

That's a good bet as far as the most impactful one to flip.  In theory it could also be St Mary's because that also might allow you to jump them.

[royalfan]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

The other alternative is we beat Michigan at home and just don't get run out of the gym on the road at tOSU.

 

If we win out at home and keep it close at tOSU, we're in, right?

If we win two more games of any kind we are in if there is not a barrage of bid stealing tourney winners.  

[royalfan]

I believe for purposes of net and the predictive metrics bringing one of the blowouts down to an 8 point loss does more good than flipping one, but when actually getting in it would be Maryland road game as was mentioned.  

[AuroranHusker]

 

[roscoe]

Most of the bracketologists have six 11 seeds while a few others have five 11s and five 12s. Was wondering what is reason for this? Is it to avoid a conference match up in round of 64 & 32? And does it affect the seeding of other teams in those seeds? Would think it has to be little bit of headache to not only seed tournament but to avoid conference match-ups. And not to mention making sure BYU doesn't play on Sunday especially since they are currently sitting on bubble. 

Edited February 19 by roscoe

[Nebrasketball1979]

1 hour ago, roscoe said:

Most of the bracketologists have six 11 seeds while a few others have five 11s and five 12s. Was wondering what is reason for this? Is it to avoid a conference match up in round of 64 & 32? And does it affect the seeding of other teams in those seeds? Would think it has to be little bit of headache to not only seed tournament but to avoid conference match-ups. And not to mention making sure BYU doesn't play on Sunday especially since they are currently sitting on bubble. 

It's a result of the seeding of the last four at large teams playing in Dayton.  Generally those teams are either 11 or 12 seeds but it depends on the number of bid thieves from conferences where the presumptive best team is getting a bid regardless of whether they win their conference tournament.  The winner of those first four games assume their seed line in the main bracket if they win.

[Huskerpapa]

Oh man, I am not sure KU would make it to the dance if the brackets were set tomorrow.   They are getting absolutely curb-stomped tonight by BYU.

[AuroranHusker]

3 hours ago, roscoe said:

Most of the bracketologists have six 11 seeds while a few others have five 11s and five 12s. Was wondering what is reason for this? Is it to avoid a conference match up in round of 64 & 32? And does it affect the seeding of other teams in those seeds? Would think it has to be little bit of headache to not only seed tournament but to avoid conference match-ups. And not to mention making sure BYU doesn't play on Sunday especially since they are currently sitting on bubble. 

 

 

[Raidsker]

19 hours ago, hskr4life said:

This is wild.

This is crazy...

 

For those curious

We were #30 until Jan 6th, then #125 during the 6 game slide Jan 7th to Jan 27th, since back to #32.

[Cazzie22]

Kansas is ranked solely on reputation.  They are not the only guilty party.  Wisconsin is playing very well.

[Cazzie22]

Minnesota has to be respected as they beat UCLA in LA.  The Huskers have to bring their best as there are no “for sure” wins on the remaining schedule.