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If the "What will it take?" stuff happens ...

Norm Peterson
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Best case/worst case  

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  1. 1. If all the "What will it take?" stuff *that could realistically happen* goes our way, what's the best case scenario for wins?

    • If Griesel stays healthy and Keita is what we hoped, Wilcher steps up, Breidenbach returns to form, etc., we're a 20+-win team on our way to the dance.
      6
    • If everything realistically possible goes our way, we're still probably just NIT at best, maybe 17-19 wins.
      16
    • We could have every realistically possible thing happen for us and still hover around .500, probably 15-16 wins.
      12
    • Even if every ball bounces our way in terms of players being as good as hoped, we're still a long way from being decent and probably a losing record, 14 wins or fewer.
      5

  2. 2. If only a "Nebrasketball" amount of realistically possible stuff happens -- Keita and Briedenbach still slowed, Griesel isn't all that, whatever -- then what?

    • Even if it all regresses to the mean, we have quality talent and we're still a dancing team with 20+ wins.
      0
    • We've added enough good pieces that we won't have to rely on luck to get to 17-19 wins and the NIT.
      1
    • We'd need a whole bunch of lucky balls to bounce our way to be any better than just around .500, so 15-16 wins.
      19
    • Aside from any superhuman effort to be better than we are, we're just not that good. No better than a year ago, maybe 14 wins max.
      19

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Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

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Let's say it all breaks our way. And I'm not saying to assume that Keita shows up looking like a lottery pick or that Griesel winds up Piatkowski 2.0. Let's say just all the stuff that is reasonably possible breaks our way. What do you think our season win total would be.

 

Then again, we are Nebrasketball and we basically never get all the breaks or even most of the breaks and sometimes it feels like not even some of the breaks. But if we do get some breaks but only a "Nebrasketball" amount of those breaks, then what? Then where do you put our season win total?

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busticket

busticket

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If everything breaks right (which NEVER happens here) we are a bubble team at worst.  
 

Keita would be the centerpiece.  Remember as he was leading his team to the JUCO national title, he said Keita is more advanced than Reggie Evans at this stage.  The same Reggie Evans at Iowa who led the country in double doubles, free throws attempted and free throws made.  And Keita blocks shots as well.  Yeah, having a force like that would help a ton.  That would lead to Walker being our 6th man.

 

Griesel just needs to be the steady hand running the show, getting other players involved and maintaining a positive assist to turnover ratio.  


Gary would be the rebounding, defending junk yard dog getting second chance points and driving the other team nuts.

 

Bando would be a plus defender and double figure scorer.  Likely our best slasher along with solid three point shooting.

 

Wilcher would start and possibly Tominaga being the sharpshooter off the bench.  With a little improvement over last year both can be double figure scorers.

 

And that is not taking account any of the young kids breaking out. Everything breaks right and that group can very possible dance.  But it won’t…

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jimmykc

jimmykc

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We will probably have some ups and downs and the venerable "Rock Bottom" thread will be consulted on more than one occasion. We will have a few upsets along the way, and we'll all become modestly optimistic when they happen. Then at the end of the season we will fizzle out in a big game just enough to not get any post season invitations because the league will be considered "down" this year. We will then all troop back to our basements and eagerly look forward to the next year. I hope I am wrong, or maybe I have been watching too many reruns during the pandemic. The saddest thing is I have begun to enjoy them.  

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Huskerpapa

Huskerpapa

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Other teams will be good to great.  Especially in our league.  Being better may not be good enough.  

The key to me is will we play like a team?  Will the team play with extreme effort, execution and passion.  The only way we make it to the next level (or two) is by busting our nuts each and every game.  Individualism simply will not get it done.

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Chuck Taylor

Chuck Taylor

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I appreciate the sentiment that we just need to play hard and as a team, but I can't think of one Big Ten team that doesn't already have that as an expectation. That might get us to 12-14 wins, if we're good at home, but not much higher.

 

So it comes down to talent, and I don't see one guy on the roster who can make an all-conference team. Walker, Wilcher or Kensei? Nope. The transfers? Gary and Bando weren't close to all conference level where they were, Sam was but in much lower league. The new guys? I'd be happy with any of them as a solid performer.

 

So at this point we're pinning our hopes on "But (fill in blank) can really make a big jump!" 

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busticket

busticket

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32 minutes ago, Chuck Taylor said:

I appreciate the sentiment that we just need to play hard and as a team, but I can't think of one Big Ten team that doesn't already have that as an expectation. That might get us to 12-14 wins, if we're good at home, but not much higher.

 

So it comes down to talent, and I don't see one guy on the roster who can make an all-conference team. Walker, Wilcher or Kensei? Nope. The transfers? Gary and Bando weren't close to all conference level where they were, Sam was but in much lower league. The new guys? I'd be happy with any of them as a solid performer.

 

So at this point we're pinning our hopes on "But (fill in blank) can really make a big jump!" 


In general it helps to have elite talent, especially to finish in the upper third of the league, but we have enough talent to have a Rutgers type season.  That’s likely our glass ceiling, and last year they were the outlier when you look at the upper half of the Big 10 standings.  
 

If (big if) we play like we did the last couple of weeks of the season, we’ll be at a minimum competitive.  One of the biggest hurdles is our schedule…we don’t get to pencil in 10 non con cupcakes to pad our win total / build confidence.  If Fred has a winning record this year he will have earned it.

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Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

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The results of my earlier "what will it take for Hoiberg to keep his job" poll were depressing enough. But when you contrast those results with the ones above so far, it's even worse.

 

You'd have thought off-season staff and player changes would have moved the needle in a positive direction as far as fans' expectations, but, alas, no. In my earlier poll 3 months ago, about 60% of respondents thought we'd be .500 or better, with roughly 13% believing we're an NIT- or an NCAA-caliber team. Fewer responses in this poll, but, now, only about 46.5% think we'll be .500 or better, 3.6% thinking we'll be an NIT qualifier, and exactly zero percent thinking we'll make the dance.

 

I suppose some of it depends on how you ask the questions, but still ...

 

 

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Cazzie22

Cazzie22

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2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

The results of my earlier "what will it take for Hoiberg to keep his job" poll were depressing enough. But when you contrast those results with the ones above so far, it's even worse.

 

You'd have thought off-season staff and player changes would have moved the needle in a positive direction as far as fans' expectations, but, alas, no. In my earlier poll 3 months ago, about 60% of respondents thought we'd be .500 or better, with roughly 13% believing we're an NIT- or an NCAA-caliber team. Fewer responses in this poll, but, now, only about 46.5% think we'll be .500 or better, 3.6% thinking we'll be an NIT qualifier, and exactly zero percent thinking we'll make the dance.

 

I suppose some of it depends on how you ask the questions, but still ...

 

 

How optimistic are you?  It is a wait and see situation for me.  I just hope we are competitive.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Handy Johnson

Handy Johnson

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Posted

Sounds like Fred wants to play the 3 upperclassman together (Greisel, Gary, Bandoumel) & a rotation of Keita, Walker, Briedenbach down low. I’d be willing to sacrifice the number of 3 pointer’s attempted in exchange for more Rebounds/Put Backs & a Defensive Presence across the board. Can’t wait to see how Lloyd, McPhearson, Denim & our other young Guards look…

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75unlgrad

75unlgrad

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19 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

Sounds like Fred wants to play the 3 upperclassman together (Greisel, Gary, Bandoumel) & a rotation of Keita, Walker, Briedenbach down low. I’d be willing to sacrifice the number of 3 pointer’s attempted in exchange for more Rebounds/Put Backs & a Defensive Presence across the board. Can’t wait to see how Lloyd, McPhearson, Denim & our other young Guards look…

You forgot C.J. Wilcher -- he should be improved and play a lot.

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Handy Johnson

Handy Johnson

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Posted
Just now, 75unlgrad said:

You forgot C.J. Wilcher -- he should be improved and play a lot.

I did, thanks 🙏. I see he’s been cutting weight on the Instagram by Boxing. Which, as a former Boxer myself is a great way to improve your overall conditioning, stamina, toughness etc. He & Tominaga need to come in ready to knock down some shots…! 

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