Recruiting Rankings - Transfers vs. HS Recruits

[NUdiehard]

There is no exact science for determining the "talent" level on a team.  Recruiting rankings are often used as a proxy for "talent", but I think by now we all know that recruiting rankings are in inexact science at best. But using recruiting rankings to predict talent form high school recruits is one things--using them to predict talent of transfers is another IMO.

 

Once a player has played at least one year in college, that player's one year of college experience should trump any previous recruiting rankings when trying to project that player's true talent and "potential" to be a difference maker.  Now, it can be difficult if the transfer only had one year of college and didn't get much playing time--but isn't the fact the player didn't get much playing time "indicative" of his talent to at least some measure.  Of course, we may have to dig deeper into the talent ahead of him on his former team, but still, if a player didn't play it's almost certainly because there were numerous other player's ahead of him on the roster.

 

Another reality of "most" (not all of course) transfers is that most of them are transferring because of lack of playing time.  Again, not all, but the vast majority of player's transferring from power 5 schools (I am not talking about players at lower level transferring up ala Kobe Westers) to other power 5 schools usually were not satisfied with their playing time/experience and want a new start.

 

Knowing this, it doesn't seem accurate to assess an incoming transfer based on their recruiting rankings.  The very fact that player had limited playing time should automatically reduce those rankings or possibly invalidate them completely.  For instance, Lat Mayen was a 4* recruit coming out of Australia.  But in 2 seasons at TCU he was a redshirt his first year (which indicates he wasn't good enough to contribute to winning at all as a freshmen) and in his 2nd year he averaged 2.1 pts and 1.2 rebounds before getting injured.  Does this sound like a legitimate 4* recruit?  Of course not, and it would be silly knowing this to assess him as a true 4* talent once he transferred to NU.  Similarly, Keon Edwards was ranked as high as 41 by ESPN and a 4* (top 80 recruit) by rivals out of high school, yet he saw almost no playing time while at Depaul.  I realize there are extenuating circumstances with the Covid year, but if Edwards was truly an elite talent, it seems he would have garnered some playing time and production while there.  I think we all now see that he is not truly a top 50 recruit and is probably closer to a 2* than a 4* when it comes to actual ability to play at the power 5 level.

 

I know there are exceptions. such as James Palmer and Terran Petteway who had modest numbers at their previous school, but these seem to be more the exception than the rule.

 

My point is I think there is a higher chance of getting a "hit" on a highly ranked recruit if that recruit is right out of HS as opposed to a transfer (unless that transfer has already put up very impressive numbers at a previous power 5 school).  The HS recruit may not be a program changing player his freshmen year, but hopefully there will be enough indications of "talent" that can continue to grow and develop as he matures and gets stronger--ala Wilhelm Briedenbach.  Wilhelm unfortunately got injured, but he was not going to be a program changer THIS year.  But there are indications he could develop into a very solid piece over the next 4 years.

 

Fred did not bring in many highly ranked high school recruits during his first 3 years.  We all know he prioritizes transfers.  BUT, he has started to recruit more highly ranked HS recruits, especially with next year's class.  This is a big reason why I am much more in favor of retaining Fred than most.  This is a change in recruiting strategy, and I would like to see Fred have the chance to play it out.  Do I wish he would have pulled in more highly ranked HS kids in his first 3 years?  Of course.  But this is a sunk cost.  Let's give him a chance with the young HS recruits.

 

Robin Washut recently tweeted "2022 Nebrasketball signee JLawrence10 is going to be firmly entrenched in the final Rivals150 when all is said an done.  Book it."

 

2022 SF Ramel Lloyd (4 star) is receiving all kinds of accolades and his "offer" list included schools like Kansas, Arizona, Baylor, Illinois, Arizona State, USC, Oklahoma St., etc.  Frankly, I believe that is one of the most impressive "offer" list of any HS recruit I've ever seen at NU.

 

Denim Dawson is already on campus and impressing Fred with his energy, athleticism and hustle, all of which are greatly needed with this roster construction. 

 

Then you sprinkle in a big man like Keita and maybe a transfer or two to complement the young recruits, and we may have something to look forward to.  Are they guaranteed to pan out.  Of course not.  But it seems crazy to me to switch course now knowing that Fred has made the necessary pivot and its bringing in some talented HS recruits who change the trajectory of the program for many years to come. 

 

 

[Shawn Eichorst's Toupee]

Dang. Two separate novels in two weeks from you that consist of some light criticism of Fred and then ending with a firm declaration of keeping him around. Is this gonna end up being a weekly occurrence?

[HB]

Come on Diehard.  If you thing Denim Dawson is going to lead is to the promised land, you are one gullible fan