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Time Machine: thoughts on this hypothetical lineup


aphilso1
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2 hours ago, GoBigFred said:

 
go back and look at their Husker stats. 

 

Career Stats:

 

  3pt% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points  
Lat 32.8 3.3 0.5 0.4 5.8  
Matej 43.1* 3.6 0.3 0.2 10.3*  
*Note: Kavas' stats even more closely resemble Lat's if only counting his time at Nebraska.  He was 33.8% on 3pt shots and averaged 5.3 PPG
             
  3pt% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points  
Keisei 33.9 1.5 1.0 0.0 7.7  
Bear 39.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 8.3  
             
  FG% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points  
Les 48.3 3.9 0.8 0.5 4.3  
Derrick 64.7 2.7 0.3 0.4 3.1  
             
  FG% 3pt% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points
Bo 0.377 0.334 2.3 0.9 0.1 11.2
Zo 0.423 0.303 4 1.3 0.2

14.6

 

 

 

You seriously don't see the similarities? 

 

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50 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

Walker > Smith. And I also just wanna use this post to show a little appreciation to Derrick Walker. He’s 41/51 (80.4%) from the field this year. Shooting nearly 70% in his Nebraska career. That’s crazy. Free throw shooting is much improved. Makes good decisions. He’s a true team player on a team that desperately needs one (or several). I feel bad for him. He’s the type of guy who could be a real solid role player on a really good team. 

 

Walker and Smith are my two favorite players among the 10 guys in this thread, and for very similar reasons.  I think people discount how good Les could have been healthy.

 

EDIT: I think people are also discounting the teams on which Smith played.  With Walt, Shavon, Petteway, AWIII, Tai, and Gallegos on the floor, Les wasn't being asked to score points.  And they also weren't setting up a half dozen pick and rolls per game for him at the rim.  Different eras will inflate or deflate stats.  

Edited by aphilso1
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1 hour ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Career Stats:

 

  3pt% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points  
Lat 32.8 3.3 0.5 0.4 5.8  
Matej 43.1* 3.6 0.3 0.2 10.3*  
*Note: Kavas' stats even more closely resemble Lat's if only counting his time at Nebraska.  He was 33.8% on 3pt shots and averaged 5.3 PPG
             
  3pt% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points  
Keisei 33.9 1.5 1.0 0.0 7.7  
Bear 39.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 8.3  
             
  FG% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points  
Les 48.3 3.9 0.8 0.5 4.3  
Derrick 64.7 2.7 0.3 0.4 3.1  
             
  FG% 3pt% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points
Bo 0.377 0.334 2.3 0.9 0.1 11.2
Zo 0.423 0.303 4 1.3 0.2

14.6

 

 

 

You seriously don't see the similarities? 

 

You're factoring in Matej's time at Seattle and Bear Jones at Northern Kentucky and Derrick Walker at Tennessee as evidence that they are equally as talented as these other guys? Why do we care what somebody did at Seattle? Or Texas Tech? Or Northern Kentucky? Or playing in garbage time at Tennessee? Or at LSU? Or at Arizona State. That's irrelevant whatsoever. 

 

Bear Jones at Nebraska

08-09   1.8 ppg in 11.5 mpg 

09-10   6.0 ppg in 16.9 mpg

10-11    4.1 ppg in 12.4 mpg

 

No idea where you got 8.3 ppg. Keisei is not even halfway through his first season at Nebraska and is averaging 7.7 ppg in 20.0 mpg shooting 33.9% from 3. Bear shot 33.8% in his third year in the program. Yes productivity wise Keisei is ahead of Bear. Other than a couple big games Keisei has been largely disappointing and his percentage is still what Bear's was in his 3rd and last year in the program. 

 

Derrick Walker at Nebraska

20-21   5.9 ppg and 4.7 rpg

21-22   9.1 ppg and 6.4 rpg

 

but you have him at averages of 3.1 points and 2.7 rpg? Yes he's better than Leslee Smith. Really no question IMO. 

 

Bo and Zo's Nebraska only numbers have Verge better in every category except 3-pt and FT accuracy. Otherwise though he's entirely more productive especially in rebounding (5.7 to 2.6) and assists (5.5 to 3.3) and that's saying something considering how everyone says he doesn't pass and how much we suck at shooting. I would definitely entertain Lance Jeter over Verge based on intangibles alone, but not Bo Spencer.

 

And the thought of having Matej Kavas in any starting lineup in Nebraska history makes me cringe. I dislike Lat as a player probably as much as anyone on this board, but he has started 37 of 37 career games as a Husker (thanks Fred), and Matej started 1 whole game. Lat averaged 8.6 ppg on 34.8% from 3 last year. Matej averaged 5.3 ppg on 33.8% from 3 in his one year at Nebraska. Yeah Lat has been terrible this year, but Matej was terrible as well and even more useless on defense and rebounding. 

 

Edited by GoBigFred
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1 hour ago, aphilso1 said:

 

EDIT: I think people are also discounting the teams on which Smith played.  With Walt, Shavon, Petteway, AWIII, Tai, and Gallegos on the floor, Les wasn't being asked to score points.  And they also weren't setting up a half dozen pick and rolls per game for him at the rim.  Different eras will inflate or deflate stats.  

In Smith's healthy year at Nebraska (our tourney team) he averaged 4 field goal attempts per game and 2 free throws per game. Derrick averages 4.5 field goal attempts per game and 2 free throws per game. You're making it seem like Derrick is a high volume guy who's forced to carry the offensive load for his team. We ran pick n rolls with Leslee Smith (actually a lot his senior year when he was healthy). We do it more with Derrick because he's the most efficient and best finisher at the rim for a post player that we've had at Nebraska in at least 20 years. He's also longer, just as strong and a better defender than Leslee was. 

 

You're also cherrypicking stats in the post above. Obviously Bear Jones and Matej Kavas put up much better numbers at Northern Kentucky and Seattle than they did at Nebraska. So would Keisei and Lat. 

Edited by millerhusker
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9 minutes ago, GoBigFred said:

 

You're factoring in Matej's time at Seattle and Bear Jones at Northern Kentucky and Derrick Walker at Tennessee as evidence that they are equally as talented as these other guys? Why do we care what somebody did at Seattle? Or Texas Tech? Or Northern Kentucky? Or playing in garbage time at Tennessee? Or at LSU? Or at Arizona State. That's irrelevant whatsoever. 

 

Your statement is entirely false.  What guys did elsewhere is extremely relevant when talking about talent, as that broadens the sample size and somewhat normalizes the production a player is capable of.  Showing a player's production in multiple systems gives a BETTER and MORE RELEVANT reflection of his talent level. 

The point is to identify whether this roster is more talented than past teams.  If all you want to do is look at what guys are doing in a Husker jersey, and base your conclusion solely on statistics, then the answer is obvious.  The past three teams have been the least talented in Husker history using your logic.  Why? Because they are getting outscored and losing at historic rates.  That's the only possible conclusion you can reach if you want to solely use "stats while in a Husker jersey" as your criteria for measuring talent.

 

18 minutes ago, GoBigFred said:

Bear Jones at Nebraska

08-09   1.8 ppg in 11.5 mpg 

09-10   6.0 ppg in 16.9 mpg

10-11    4.1 ppg in 12.4 mpg

 

No idea where you got 8.3 ppg. Keisei is not even halfway through his first season at Nebraska and is averaging 7.7 ppg in 20.0 mpg shooting 33.9% from 3. Bear shot 33.8% in his third year in the program. Yes productivity wise Keisei is ahead of Bear. Other than a couple big games Keisei has been largely disappointing and his percentage is still what Bear's was in his 3rd and last year in the program. 

 

Bear's stats that you have "no idea" how to find: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/eshaunte-jones-1.html

Also, Bear was a 40% shooter in the three years you chose not include.  The year you quote was his worst 3pt%, and in that year he still matched Keisei's current accuracy.  And ironically enough, Keisei spent two years in JUCO...so this is his third year of college.

 

I really don't feel like reading the rest of your post if it's just more of the same.

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22 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

In Smith's healthy year at Nebraska (our tourney team) he averaged 4 field goal attempts per game and 2 free throws per game. Derrick averages 4.5 field goal attempts per game and 2 free throws per game. You're making it seem like Derrick is a high volume guy who's forced to carry the offensive load for his team. We ran pick n rolls with Leslee Smith (actually a lot his senior year when he was healthy). We do it more with Derrick because he's the most efficient and best finisher at the rim for a post player that we've had at Nebraska in at least 20 years. He's also longer, just as strong and a better defender than Leslee was. 

 

You're also cherrypicking stats in the post above. Obviously Bear Jones and Matej Kavas put up much better numbers at Northern Kentucky and Seattle than they did at Nebraska. So would Keisei and Lat. 

 

Different systems, different teammates, different conferences even while playing for Nebraska, and drastically different possessions per game due to plodding tempo (Barry/Doc) vs uptempo (Fred) all have major impacts on stats.  Hence why I really didn't even want to go down the statistics path to begin with.  I'd prefer to keep more at a scout-type level of using eyeballs to compare playing style, body type, efficiency, skillsets, etc.

 

You claim I cherry picked stats.  I didn't.  I used the exact same reference (sports-reference.com) for all ten players and used their career statistics to get as large of a sample size as possible.  That's literally the opposite of cherry picking stats.  Is it perfect?  No.  See statement above why I didn't even plan to go down the statistics road.  Some players admittedly still have too small of a sample size (Keisei), but there's nothing I can do about that.

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2 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Walker and Smith are my two favorite players among the 10 guys in this thread, and for very similar reasons.  I think people discount how good Les could have been healthy.

 

EDIT: I think people are also discounting the teams on which Smith played.  With Walt, Shavon, Petteway, AWIII, Tai, and Gallegos on the floor, Les wasn't being asked to score points.  And they also weren't setting up a half dozen pick and rolls per game for him at the rim.  Different eras will inflate or deflate stats.  

Agreed.

Walker makes some of our past teams NCAA tournament teams. Disappointing he's going to have to suffer through this last year. 

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29 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Your statement is entirely false.  What guys did elsewhere is extremely relevant when talking about talent, as that broadens the sample size and somewhat normalizes the production a player is capable of.  Showing a player's production in multiple systems gives a BETTER and MORE RELEVANT reflection of his talent level. 

The point is to identify whether this roster is more talented than past teams.  If all you want to do is look at what guys are doing in a Husker jersey, and base your conclusion solely on statistics, then the answer is obvious.  The past three teams have been the least talented in Husker history using your logic.  Why? Because they are getting outscored and losing at historic rates.  That's the only possible conclusion you can reach if you want to solely use "stats while in a Husker jersey" as your criteria for measuring talent.

 

 

Bear's stats that you have "no idea" how to find: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/eshaunte-jones-1.html

Also, Bear was a 40% shooter in the three years you chose not include.  The year you quote was his worst 3pt%, and in that year he still matched Keisei's current accuracy.  And ironically enough, Keisei spent two years in JUCO...so this is his third year of college.

 

I really don't feel like reading the rest of your post if it's just more of the same.

 

I'll repeat myself since you don't seem to understand this. You just said what somebody did at Seattle, or Northern Kentucky, maybe even Doane or Nebraska Wesleyan while we're at it, tells us how talented they are. My word. I'm done here. 

 

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3 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Career Stats:

 

  3pt% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points  
Lat 32.8 3.3 0.5 0.4 5.8  
Matej 43.1* 3.6 0.3 0.2 10.3*  
*Note: Kavas' stats even more closely resemble Lat's if only counting his time at Nebraska.  He was 33.8% on 3pt shots and averaged 5.3 PPG
             
  3pt% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points  
Keisei 33.9 1.5 1.0 0.0 7.7  
Bear 39.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 8.3  
             
  FG% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points  
Les 48.3 3.9 0.8 0.5 4.3  
Derrick 64.7 2.7 0.3 0.4 3.1  
             
  FG% 3pt% Rebounds Steals Blocks Points
Bo 0.377 0.334 2.3 0.9 0.1 11.2
Zo 0.423 0.303 4 1.3 0.2

14.6

 

 

 

You seriously don't see the similarities? 

 

 

Derrick & Lat's rebounding numbers are embarrassing!!!!

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28 minutes ago, GoBigFred said:

 

I'll repeat myself since you don't seem to understand this. You just said what somebody did at Seattle, or Northern Kentucky, maybe even Doane or Nebraska Wesleyan while we're at it, tells us how talented they are. My word. I'm done here. 

 

I mean how do you evaluate talent of recruits, coaches, or anyone for that matter if you don't evaluate everything? Would you say Hoiberg was a talented coach before he got here? Does his record before he got here matter?  Is our current team talented? What they've done here would suggest they are not at all talented. Is that really the case? By your logic it is.

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2 minutes ago, cornfed24-7 said:

I mean how do you evaluate talent of recruits, coaches, or anyone for that matter if you don't evaluate everything? Would you say Hoiberg was a talented coach before he got here? Does his record before he got here matter?  Is our current team talented? What they've done here would suggest they are not at all talented. Is that really the case? By your logic it is.

It feels to me like we have come across the dreaded "circular reference" error in Excel

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My favorite Nebrasketball hypothetical lineup is what if the 13-14 tourney team had Brandon Ubel. Miles tried to get him to redshirt 12-13 to play that next year because he knew that team the next year could be special. Would’ve been odd for a senior to redshirt his senior season but still a fun hypothetical what if

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Bryce would probably be Palmer or Petteway.  Leaning towards Palmer.  Palmer was a slightly worse shooter. 

 

I think this is a better off season discussion.   We have no idea how our season is going to go.  Maybe, we figure it out and get 7 conference wins.  I will say my confidence is much higher in today's team over that collection of starting 5.

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