KenPom 2021-2022 KenPom Rankings Thread

49r · October 12, 2021

Well it's getting to be that time of year again. Practice has started...the leaves are changing and there is a certain chill in the air. I expect the new KenPom rankings to come out in the next few weeks, so it's time to get this season's KenPom rankings thread started!

This year, just like every other year, I'll go ahead and just start off by recapping last season's final rankings and each team's postseason destination (if they have one) in the Big Ten. Then when the first preseason rankings come out, I will note any changes and we will go from there.

As usual for the conference teams the number in the parenthesis is the ranking they started last season at, and the bold number is the number they finished at. Teams in Red represent NCAA Tournament teams and the round eliminated. Teams in Blue represent NIT teams (but none of the teams on our schedule this year played in the NIT last year).

So, everybody, time to weigh in. What KenPom rank do you think will be a reasonable expectation for us to start our season off this year? What are your thoughts on our non-con schedule? (Pretty cupcake-y...this looks like a classic Doc schedule to me). Call your shot!

Finally, as I say every year; don't forget to click here to see all the previous years' KenPom threads. They're really worth a look! With all that said, and with no further ado...

Here we go!

KenPom rankings as of 4-06-21
=======================

B1G (0-0):
(17) -> 3. Michigan E8
(18) -> 4. Illinois R32
(12) -> 7. Iowa R32
(10) -> 11. Ohio State R64
(7) -> 14. Wisconsin R32
(25) -> 25. Purdue R64
(51) -> 35. Maryland R32
(27) -> 38. Rutgers R32
(64) -> 40. Penn State
(26) -> 50. Indiana
(35) -> 62. Minnesota
(15) -> 64. Michigan State
(70) -> 79. Northwestern
(118) -> 109. Nebraska

Non-Conference (0-0):
290. Western Illinois

180. Sam Houston

22. Creighton R16

258. Idaho State

308. Southern

320. Tennessee State

159. South Dakota

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
71. @NC State

---Holiday Hoopsgiving---
60. Auburn

147. Kansas State

335. Kennesaw State

49r · October 12, 2021

Wanna get some idea of just how tough the Big Ten is going to be this year? Check this out:

https://barttorvik.com/sos.php?year=2022

Fun Stuff

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE NON-CON OVERALL

Elite L% 12 %260 28 %17

Basic 0.4535162 0.681217

Current 0234 018

According to Bart Torvik, despite the fact that we will be playing one of the softest non-con schedules in the country (260th in non-con SOS), our overall schedule projects to be 17th strongest in the country.

The Big Ten currently have all 14 teams in the top 35 in overall strength of schedule (Indiana is the lowest at 35). 5 of the top 7 strongest schedules are in the Big Ten, 8 of the top 12 and Nebraska is 10th in the league at 17. Pretty crazy when you think about it.

Lots of fun stuff to play around with on the BartTorvik site

https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nebraska&year=2022

jayschool · October 12, 2021

Big Ten SOS ranking (national), according to Bart Torvik:

Michigan (1)
Michigan State (2)
Ohio State (3)
Rutgers (6)
Maryland (7)
Wisconsin (10)
Minnesota (11)
Illinois (12)
Purdue (14)
Nebraska (17)
Northwestern (24)
Penn State (25)
Iowa (26)
Indiana (35)

Classic Fran McCaffery non-con.

Norm Peterson · October 12, 2021

1 hour ago, 49r said:

Wanna get some idea of just how tough the Big Ten is going to be this year? Check this out:

https://barttorvik.com/sos.php?year=2022

Fun Stuff

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE   NON-CON OVERALL

Elite L% 12 %260 28 %17

Basic   0.4535162   0.681217

Current   0234   018

According to Bart Torvik, despite the fact that we will be playing one of the softest non-con schedules in the country (260th in non-con SOS), our overall schedule projects to be 17th strongest in the country.

The Big Ten currently have all 14 teams in the top 35 in overall strength of schedule (Indiana is the lowest at 35). 5 of the top 7 strongest schedules are in the Big Ten, 8 of the top 12 and Nebraska is 10th in the league at 17. Pretty crazy when you think about it.

Lots of fun stuff to play around with on the BartTorvik site

https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nebraska&year=2022

The teams who play really REALLY tough schedules early are typically mid-majors or lower who play a bunch of buy games early and finish with the kinds of teams we start with. Since the larger part of our schedule is conference, we shoot up the strength of schedule rankings while teams like East-West Carolina A&M plummet once they hit the conference part of their schedule and start playing the West-East Carolina Techs of the world. So it makes sense to me that we could go from a soft non-con and shoot up to near the top of SOS as the season goes along. We're going in the opposite direction from 2/3 of the rest of the country.

HolyBobpilgrimage · October 13, 2021

agree with norm; a few challenges in non con like the showcase games etc are nice, but in general youll want to play those mostly gimme games early to nail out rotation and try things out. luckily I think fred will have to do less set up and experimenting here in Y3, as he knows exactly what kind of gameplan he has, its just plug n play. Love this staff and the kids... culture is at all time high, and I trust fred's acumen and playstyle, its exciting. cant wait

tcp · October 13, 2021

looking at those tourney results is still depressing. the B1G sucked in the tourney, given the huge hype we had going in.

Tallbaby21 · October 14, 2021

Summaries from our non P5 non-con foes from Matt Norlander and CBS Sportsline. And if we don't play some Master P when his kid comes to town with Tennessee State I'll be disappointed.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-preseason-countdown-of-every-team-continues-with-nos-200-69-for-2021-22-season/

305. Western Illinois: One of those programs without a rudder. It claims only one 20-win season (in 2012-13) in the past 35 years. The school is heavily rumored to soon leave the Summit to join the OVC.

302. Southern: The Jaguars' average KenPom ranking the past three seasons under Sean Woods: 297. I've got Southern in the top half of the SWAC due to its respectable 3-point capability.

289. Kennesaw State: Nine of the team's top 10 scorers are back, which will 100% equate to a climb in the ratings. Kennesaw State finished 335th in KenPom, so here comes a bump.

247. Idaho State: Who wouldn't want their best player to boast the last name Cool? The Bengals will be a factor in the Big Sky with Tarik Cool. Plus, factor in that more than 80% of the team's points and rebounds return from a 13-11 team.

191. Sam Houston State: Some huge potential for the Bearkats, as they landed Texas A&M transfer Savion Flagg, who's going to almost certainly average north of 20 points if he wants to. Jason Hooten also gets Demarkus Lampley back. This team is going to the WAC and has a chance to finish top-five.

184. South Dakota: It's time to pause and give recognition to a geographically sensible and not-at-all-common nickname. They are the South Dakota Coyotes, and that is perfect. USD will likely fall in the No. 6 or 7 slot in the Summit League, led by Kruz Perrott-Hunt.

182. Tennessee State: A 4-19 team a season ago, yet Penny Collins has more momentum behind this program than ever before. The Tigers finished second in the recruitment of five-star Chris Livingston (going to Kentucky), and for the season ahead: 11 new players and a six-guard rotation. Hercy Miller is one of those guards; his father is rapper Master P. Fun story building in Nashville.

hhcmatt · October 14, 2021

28 minutes ago, Tallbaby21 said:

landed Texas A&M transfer Savion Flagg,

We tried to land Flagg back in 2017

jayschool · October 14, 2021

I still have nasty flashbacks about that Sam Houston game from the early Collier era.

49r · October 17, 2021

KenPom rankings for the start of the 21-22 season are out!

We're starting off the year at #81. 13th in the Big Ten. Not great, but we are dragged down a bit by our lousy performance over the last few years. It is a pretty healthy jump up (28 spots), so it's hard to complain when we've been spending large chunks of the past couple seasons in the 120's and 130's. A good example of what I mean can be seen with Michigan State's starting ranking. They jumped from #64 to #22, simply due to the fact that last season was a massive outlier for them in terms of KenPom ranking. Not sure what's going on with Northwestern to get them such a big boost, maybe they have a bunch of talented transfers coming in?

In the non-con, Creighton takes a big step down, while NC State, Auburn and K State move substantially up. Also, for another point of reference, Colorado starts off at #35. I would expect us to be about a 2 point underdog to them for the charity exhibition if Ken did odds for charity exhibitions.

Okay, so there we have it. We're one step closer to the season, and with that here are today's KenPom rankings. Here we go!

KenPom rankings as of 10-17-21
=======================

B1G (0-0):
(3) -> 2. Michigan
(4) -> 5. Illinois
(25) -> 6. Purdue
(11) -> 8. Ohio State
(35) -> 18. Maryland
(64) -> 22. Michigan State
(7) -> 23. Iowa
(50) -> 31. Indiana
(14) -> 44. Wisconsin
(79) -> 48. Northwestern
(38) -> 67. Rutgers
(40) -> 70. Penn State
(109) -> 81. Nebraska

(62) -> 120. Minnesota

Non-Conference (0-0):
242. Western Illinois

198. Sam Houston

53. Creighton

188. Idaho State

319. Southern

326. Tennessee State

186. South Dakota

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
56. @NC State

---Holiday Hoopsgiving---
28. Auburn

82. Kansas State

293. Kennesaw State

49r · October 17, 2021

Here's our full schedule with current predictions based on starting rankings. Big Ten's gonna be a slog:

81 Nebraska (0-0)

Cornhuskers · Lincoln, NE
Head coach: Fred Hoiberg

2022 Schedule

Date	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Tue Nov 9	242	Western Illinois	W, 87-71	77	93%	Home
Fri Nov 12	196	Sam Houston St.	W, 83-70	77	89%	Home
Tue Nov 16	53	Creighton	W, 78-77	76	51%	Home
Fri Nov 19	188	Idaho St.	W, 80-68	73	87%	Home
Sun Nov 21	319	Southern	W, 86-64	76	98%	Home
Tue Nov 23	326	Tennessee St.	W, 88-65	77	98%	Home
Sat Nov 27	186	South Dakota	W, 84-72	76	87%	Home
Wed Dec 1	56	N.C. State	L, 79-74	76	30%	Away
Sat Dec 4	31	Indiana	L, 80-71	75	21%	Away		×
Tue Dec 7	2	Michigan	L, 81-71	75	18%	Home		×
Sat Dec 11	28	Auburn	L, 82-76	77	29%	Neutral
Sun Dec 19	82	Kansas St.	W, 76-73	73	62%	Home
Wed Dec 22	293	Kennesaw St.	W, 85-66	76	96%	Home
Sun Jan 2	8	Ohio St.	L, 80-74	74	29%	Home		×
Wed Jan 5	22	Michigan St.	L, 80-71	75	19%	Away		×
Sat Jan 8	67	Rutgers	L, 77-73	75	33%	Away		×
Tue Jan 11	5	Illinois	L, 81-74	76	24%	Home		×
Fri Jan 14	6	Purdue	L, 84-70	74	10%	Away		×
Mon Jan 17	31	Indiana	L, 77-74	75	42%	Home		×
Sat Jan 22	8	Ohio St.	L, 83-70	74	13%	Away		×
Tue Jan 25	44	Wisconsin	L, 73-72	72	48%	Home		×
Sat Jan 29	67	Rutgers	W, 76-74	75	56%	Home		×
Tue Feb 1	2	Michigan	L, 85-68	75	7%	Away		×
Sat Feb 5	48	Northwestern	L, 77-76	75	49%	Home		×
Wed Feb 9	120	Minnesota	W, 80-73	76	74%	Home		×
Sun Feb 13	23	Iowa	L, 85-75	76	19%	Away		×
Fri Feb 18	18	Maryland	L, 77-73	73	35%	Home		×
Tue Feb 22	48	Northwestern	L, 79-72	75	27%	Away		×
Fri Feb 25	23	Iowa	L, 81-78	76	39%	Home		×
Mon Feb 28	70	Penn St.	L, 80-75	76	33%	Away		×
Sun Mar 6	44	Wisconsin	L, 76-69	72	26%	Away		×
Projected record:							14-17	6-14
Chance of unbeaten record:							0.00%	0.00%
Chance of winless record:							0.00%	0.03%
Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.
Home games played at Pinnacle Bank Arena (15,000, 30th largest in D-I)
Home court advantage: 3.6 (73rd in D-I)

49r · October 17, 2021

@hhcmatt makes a great point:

HolyBobpilgrimage · October 20, 2021

Love where they put us. would rather be closer to 40, but we don't deserve much more right now after 2 seven - win seasons. Think this is the sweet spot, expectations aren't overblown and we can focus on winning each game without looking ahead, and building team chemistry.

can't wait. got my paper tickets in today, although I had indicated digital tickets. I guess I have backups, lol which isnt a bad thing. GBFR

Norm Peterson · October 26, 2021

Colorado starts out at #35, so that should actually be a really good test for us coming up.

AuroranHusker · October 27, 2021

On 10/25/2021 at 9:07 PM, Norm Peterson said:

Colorado starts out at #35, so that should actually be a really good test for us coming up.

That's the real competitive start of the 2021-22 season, albeit in the form of an exhibition. Can't wait.

HolyBobpilgrimage · October 28, 2021

On 10/25/2021 at 9:07 PM, Norm Peterson said:

Colorado starts out at #35, so that should actually be a really good test for us coming up.

Looking forward to sunday afternoon there... I remember those old saturdays vs the buffs. and this buffs team is LEGIT. Gonna be a winnable one but we're the underdogs. despite it being an exh, I love it being a scheduled game, and for a good cause too ofc. But the fact that fred and the husker crew sought this match out, I'm real impressed. this kind of opponent really helps the team, tests us. early season you want mostly cupcakes to build confidence, but a good test here and there is important too.

Colorado is gonna run on us and will test our defense, which looked a little sloppy tonight. Can't wait to see this one. maybe I'll move down lower earlier in the game if it's sparse again.

49r · November 10, 2021

Jesus it gets hard to write stuff here sometimes.

KenPom's predicted win total for us this year has decreased from 14 to 13 (obviously) now and I'm seriously wondering where we're gonna get those 13 wins, even with this pastry filled schedule we have. Colorado dropped 9 spots to #44 with their OT win last night and Creighton dropped 9 spots as well. So we have company in the "dropping 9 spots after opening night" club I guess. But that is pretty hollow after the gut punch suffered last night. Alas, we soldier on and hope Kobe returns from injury soon so we can have a PG back on the team again. Well...Here we go!

KenPom rankings as of 11-10-21
=======================

B1G (0-0):
2. Michigan
4. Purdue
5. Illinois
13. Ohio State
20. Maryland
22. Iowa
26. Michigan State
38. Indiana
43. Wisconsin
47. Northwestern
66. Penn State
67. Rutgers
90. Nebraska

112. Minnesota

Non-Conference (0-1):
221. Western Illinois - L

198. Sam Houston

62. Creighton

189. Idaho State

316. Southern

317. Tennessee State

187. South Dakota

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
52. @NC State

---Holiday Hoopsgiving---
23. Auburn

78. Kansas State

286. Kennesaw State

49r · November 13, 2021

A win is better than a loss, no doubt about it. Rankings haven't really changed a lot this week but Creighton has slipped another 5 spots. That seems kind of academic at this point though; the game Tuesday feels like it could get ugly. C'est la vie, we soldier on and dream of getting better against cupcakes around Thanksgiving time.

Colorado moves up a spot to #43 and 1-0 San Jose State moves from #336 to #332.

Here we go!

KenPom rankings as of 11-13-21
=======================

B1G (0-0):
2. Michigan
4. Purdue
5. Illinois
19. Ohio State
20. Maryland
25. Iowa
26. Michigan State
35. Indiana
38. Wisconsin
42. Northwestern
63. Penn State
71. Rutgers
89. Nebraska

110. Minnesota

Non-Conference (1-1):
220. Western Illinois - L

194. Sam Houston - W

67. Creighton

188. Idaho State

314. Southern

315. Tennessee State

189. South Dakota

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
51. @NC State

---Holiday Hoopsgiving---
24. Auburn

85. Kansas State

279. Kennesaw State

Chuck Taylor · November 13, 2021

1 hour ago, 49r said:

A win is better than a loss, no doubt about it. Rankings haven't really changed a lot this week but Creighton has slipped another 5 spots. That seems kind of academic at this point though; the game Tuesday feels like it could get ugly.

It could get ugly for them. One of our BIG problems under FH has been rebuilding every year. We're obviously struggling to put the pieces together, but C---- has it worse than we do. They're playing 5 freshmen, 2 transfers and two guys in their second year. We may be 283rd in the country in 3-point shooting, but they're 298th. None of their freshman and sophomores has ever played in road game with a crowd, and PBA will be full. I'm guessing we'll be favored by 5 or 6 points.

doc1394 · November 13, 2021

2 hours ago, Chuck Taylor said:

It could get ugly for them. One of our BIG problems under FH has been rebuilding every year. We're obviously struggling to put the pieces together, but C---- has it worse than we do. They're playing 5 freshmen, 2 transfers and two guys in their second year. We may be 283rd in the country in 3-point shooting, but they're 298th. None of their freshman and sophomores has ever played in road game with a crowd, and PBA will be full. I'm guessing we'll be favored by 5 or 6 points.

I tend to agree with this, but I’m a homer. Creighton has looked terrible against 2 300+ Kenpom ranking teams. I’ll be interested in the line when it comes out

49r · November 14, 2021

8 hours ago, Chuck Taylor said:

It could get ugly for them. One of our BIG problems under FH has been rebuilding every year. We're obviously struggling to put the pieces together, but C---- has it worse than we do. They're playing 5 freshmen, 2 transfers and two guys in their second year. We may be 283rd in the country in 3-point shooting, but they're 298th. None of their freshman and sophomores has ever played in road game with a crowd, and PBA will be full. I'm guessing we'll be favored by 5 or 6 points.

Counterpoint...the Huskers have lost two season openers in the last 20 years. Hoiberg has coached both of those losses in his three year tenure.

Handy Johnson · November 14, 2021

7 hours ago, doc1394 said:

I tend to agree with this, but I’m a homer. Creighton has looked terrible against 2 300+ Kenpom ranking teams. I’ll be interested in the line when it comes out

ESPN Predictor has the Cornhuskers @ 75% to WIN, & the Missouri Valley has beens @ 25…

doc1394 · November 14, 2021

2 hours ago, 49r said:

Counterpoint...the Huskers have lost two season openers in the last 20 years. Hoiberg has coached both of those losses in his three year tenure.

Thank goodness this isn’t the season opener then

49r · November 17, 2021

Okay, well I'm committed to doing these updates so I'm going to do them. There has been a fair amount of shuffling in the bottom half of the Big Ten, notably Wisconsin and Penn State are dropping about as rapidly as our Huskers. I'm not sure how interested anyone is in reading my comments today so I'll keep the comments short and sweet, but I will say one more thing.

There is no hope. Eff everything. Go Big Red.

Oh, and in the other teams of interest category:

Colorado stays at #43 and San Jose State moves up to #324.

Here we go!

KenPom rankings as of 11-17-21
=======================

B1G (0-0):
3. Michigan
4. Purdue
5. Illinois
14. Ohio State
23. Iowa
25. Michigan State
26. Maryland
36. Indiana
44. Northwestern
46. Wisconsin
72. Rutgers
82. Penn State
98. Nebraska

106. Minnesota

Non-Conference (1-2):
223. Western Illinois - L

191. Sam Houston - W

60. Creighton - L

216. Idaho State

301. Southern

319. Tennessee State

208. South Dakota

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
64. @NC State

---Holiday Hoopsgiving---
24. Auburn

83. Kansas State

279. Kennesaw State

49r · November 17, 2021

...and one more thing. KenPom now predicts our final record to be 12-19 with 6 conference wins, so buckle up boys...looks like we're going to have about 17 more of these frustrating mornings this season.

Maybe the Winter Olympics can distract us some this year.

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