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OT: You can't spell "SEC" without "Texas"


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2 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

To make it more clear on my end, I don't think this is about getting a 16th member in a conference. I see it as more of putting pressure on the NCAA.

 

So to me, the result is either status quo or breaking of the power of the NCAA, not some strategy of a 16 team conference.

 

We don't need 16 teams to put any pressure on the NCAA.  It's not a magic number.

 

Especially when the schools most readily available to us to get to that number are only marginally appealing.  

 

Sure, Kansas and Iowa State would be great for Nebraska because we have a long history with both of them, and they make for easy road trips, but for almost the entire rest of the country they would see these schools as desperation adds to the Big Ten.  I honestly believe adding those two schools to the Big Ten would de-value our overall image much in the same way Rutgers and Maryland did.

 

Edited by 49r
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Most Husker football games are over by noon even when they kick off at 11AM.

Glad to be a part of the B1G and apart from the Big 12.

Great stuff!  Watch ‘til the end for Nebraska:    

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So heres what I'm thinking. It's a mash up on thoughts expressed by 49r and Throwback. 

 

First, I agree with 49r that I don't believe there are 2 teams that add enough value (at least in the sense for football reasons which is why this is happening) to invite them to join the BigTen. A side note - I believe there is zero chance Notre Dame would join. But I do believe you do need to combat this move from the SEC.

 

Second, I think Throwback was right that you need to look west towards the Pac10. The relationship is already there. But do they need to combine? I'm not so sure. Why not come up with some sort of arrangement where we schedule each other for non conference games? And in turn box out the SEC from nonconference match ups from the Big Ten and Pac 10.

 

 

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Best fits from geographical and competitive standpoints? I would say Cincinnati, Pitt, and UConn seem like fits. Trying to poach Virginia, Virginia Tech or Louisville might be tough but aren’t far out of our footprint. Don’t really want West Virginia. No idea how any would fit the academic and other standards the B1G wants to uphold, but those schools feel more likely to me than any of our old conference foes if we expand.

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Just read that ISU is now also in talks.  I honestly don't know much about them, but would West Virginia be a good fit?  Or would they be better with the ACC or SEC? Would they want to stay in the Big 8?  I don't see the Big 8 being a strong conference with what would be left. 

Edited by Nighthawk
Lousy cellphone autocorrect.
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7 minutes ago, Keenan9595 said:

Hmmm, does Ohio state want to go fro where they are the big fish in the pond to all of a sudden having to I try and coincide with 3-4 other alphas?  I don’t know how good for business that would be. 

That’s exactly what Texas and Oklahoma are doing, so...

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11 minutes ago, atskooc said:

That’s exactly what Texas and Oklahoma are doing, so...

But they are doing that off of a media deal that is worth about half as much. Will Ohio state be guaranteed 60+ mill a year like they are now in a 20 team SEC?  With that number more than likely to go up with the Big 10’s expansion, that’s what gives me pause, but you can never say never I suppose.  I guess is what I’m trying to say is Oklahoma and Texas definitely make money by doing this, going from a tv deal that pays them like 30 million a year and joining a conference where they’ll jump closer to 45-50.  Ohio state is already making that and some, it might make more sense to stay put and add some teams with major markets to bump up those numbers.  (Colorado=Denver, Kansas/Missouri=st. Louis and KC, USC gives you LA, Oregon and Washington give you Seattle/Portland and Syracuse gives you NYC).  I’m truly just spitballing here.  

Edited by Keenan9595
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2 hours ago, Keenan9595 said:

But they are doing that off of a media deal that is worth about half as much. Will Ohio state be guaranteed 60+ mill a year like they are now in a 20 team SEC?  With that number more than likely to go up with the Big 10’s expansion, that’s what gives me pause, but you can never say never I suppose.  I guess is what I’m trying to say is Oklahoma and Texas definitely make money by doing this, going from a tv deal that pays them like 30 million a year and joining a conference where they’ll jump closer to 45-50.  Ohio state is already making that and some, it might make more sense to stay put and add some teams with major markets to bump up those numbers.  (Colorado=Denver, Kansas/Missouri=st. Louis and KC, USC gives you LA, Oregon and Washington give you Seattle/Portland and Syracuse gives you NYC).  I’m truly just spitballing here.  

 

My guess is that the odds of a 20-team conference are just as high as a European Super League forming.

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Will be very interesting if the remaining Little 8 take a breath and let this play out before trying to find new homes. Make Tejas and OU break the contract first.

 

If you start thinking about the potential settlement the Little 8 could receive, it's huge. 

 

UT & OU should pay a 2-year-of-revenues penalty, about $75M each

 

And if UT & OU try to leave the league in time for the 2022 season - which makes sense as to why this seems to be going so fast now - that means they're breaching the TV/GoR contact with 3 years left on it. As soon as they breach it, I have to assume it's null and void from the networks' perspective. 

 

That means each remaining LIttle 8 team would stand to lose roughly $38M over each of the next 3 years - roughly $110M total. I would assume they could sue for that amount. Certainly, the Little 8 still have some value for a network package over the next 3 years, so that $880M comes down a bit. 

 

Either way, you're close to $1 billion already. And that doesn't include any non-financial damages. Plus they're supposed to give 18 months notice, which they won't be if they're leaving for the 2022 season. That's got to be worth something.

 

So unless there's some secret clause in the contract that UT convinced the others to put in there so they could leave with lesser damages -- and there very well could be from those sneaky bastards -- if I'm the Little 8, I'm sitting back and waiting until they actually do it. Then I'm asking UT & OU for way more than $1 billion to break the contract early and I'm ready to take it to court, just to make it as messy and painful for them as possible.

 

I'm guessing there might be a lawyer or two at those 8 universities who could take on the case.

 

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Its has been reported that the exit fees that Oklahoma and Texas would pay to leave the Big 12 before the GOR runs out is capped at $70M per team.  There has been precident set (Maryland and Rugters among others) where the exiting school pays 40-60% of that amount (~$35M each for a total of ~$70M, to be shared by the 8 remaining schools).

 

This occurs only if there is a viable Big 12 in place, which requires a minimum of 10 schools.  So in order for Texas and Oklahoma to have to pay their likely ~$35M, the remaining 8 schools need to decide to stick it out in the Big 12 AND find at least 2 schools that will want to become new members, INSTEAD of attemping to join another conference.

 

The roughly $10M (or $20M if the maximum exit fee is paid) each remaining Big 12 school would receive would be little consolation to the future annual payout they would receive from FOX once a new contract is negotiated for 2025+, even if the Big 12 expanded to 16 teams.  Would FOX want to start a Big 12 Network, and pay each team over $10M a year if the flagship school is Oklahoma State or Cincinnati (should they join)?  I haven't seen any reputable source saying this would work out.

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I don't trust the noise about the rampant realignment by the conferences.  TX and OU to SEC seems likely now and I'm sure other Big 12 members are looking for options. 

 

If we are going to go to super conferences like the NFL then I would like to see the Big 10 and the Pac 12 "merge" and football can separate from the NCAA.  What that means in the end for basketball and the other sports I think remains to be seen if something major shakes up specifically for football.  

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On 7/23/2021 at 7:59 PM, 49r said:

 

We don't need 16 teams to put any pressure on the NCAA.  It's not a magic number.

 

Especially when the schools most readily available to us to get to that number are only marginally appealing.  

 

Sure, Kansas and Iowa State would be great for Nebraska because we have a long history with both of them, and they make for easy road trips, but for almost the entire rest of the country they would see these schools as desperation adds to the Big Ten.  I honestly believe adding those two schools to the Big Ten would de-value our overall image much in the same way Rutgers and Maryland did.

 

 

You make an excellent point.  People in Nebraska would love to have KU and Iowa State join the conference cause they are familiar and make an easy road trip.  However, these decisions are based on football revenue and KU bring nothing to the table in that regard.  I totally agree that while people in Nebraska would love to go back to the old Big 8 days as much as possible, the national perception is that it didn't move the needle to strengthen the conference and in many ways, makes it weaker from a competitive standpoint.  

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Been seeing multiple times that Oklahoma and Texas are going to owe $75 million in exit fees ON TOP OF still granting their media rights to the Big 12 until 2025.  If they are unable to negotiate something with the conference it could cost them up to $200 million....EACH...to leave, depending on how fast they want to get to the SEC.

 

Kinda makes the $7 million or whatever it was we paid to leave look like the bargain of the century.

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20 minutes ago, 49r said:

Been seeing multiple times that Oklahoma and Texas are going to owe $75 million in exit fees ON TOP OF still granting their media rights to the Big 12 until 2025.  If they are unable to negotiate something with the conference it could cost them up to $200 million....EACH...to leave, depending on how fast they want to get to the SEC.

 

Kinda makes the $7 million or whatever it was we paid to leave look like the bargain of the century.

Man...that's a big bet on TV rights payouts.

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They discussed ALL this at length this morning on the Dan Patrick show, then started to question what happens with  programs in that next group Miami, Florida St, Washington. When they finally got around to mentioning Dear Old Nebraska U, one of the Dannettes chimed in with genuine befuddlement: “what happened to Nebraska”...?

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1 hour ago, HuskerFever said:

Not a Brian Rosenthal tweet, but it should count as official:

 

 

Hope this happens sooner rather than later.  Seems to be increased steam of them both going to the Big 10 and not the SEC.  I'd like the talk of them coming to the Big 10 to die fast. 

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35 minutes ago, Nighthawk said:

Hope this happens sooner rather than later.  Seems to be increased steam of them both going to the Big 10 and not the SEC.  I'd like the talk of them coming to the Big 10 to die fast. 

 

Come again?  The whole sports world has been reporting OU/UT to the SEC.  What sources are you following that say Big Ten is grabbing them?  Also, if true it would actually be a good thing.  Nebraska vs Oklahoma should never have stopped being a thing, and Texas won't have the same political pull in a conference with tOSU and Michigan.  

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9 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Come again?  The whole sports world has been reporting OU/UT to the SEC.  What sources are you following that say Big Ten is grabbing them?  Also, if true it would actually be a good thing.  Nebraska vs Oklahoma should never have stopped being a thing, and Texas won't have the same political pull in a conference with tOSU and Michigan.  

Sorry, I should have been more clear. I'm seeing the same stuff everyone else is seeing.  I'm just seeing a lot of comments from people responding to the articles saying it the Big 10 and not the SEC.  I'd like that rumor to die fast.  

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11 minutes ago, Nighthawk said:

Sorry, I should have been more clear. I'm seeing the same stuff everyone else is seeing.  I'm just seeing a lot of comments from people responding to the articles saying it the Big 10 and not the SEC.  I'd like that rumor to die fast.  

 

Who cares about what people are commenting on.  Everyone's got an opinion on what everyone else should do.  The Big 10 would be lucky to get 2 quality programs like Texas and OU.  It's just a shame the SEC beat them to it.  I'd much rather add schools like Texas and OU as opposed to Kansas and Iowa State.  That's like adding Rutgers and Maryland all over again.  

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