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 I actually see today's match and the one at Mexico as the least important matches.  We don't expect or need 3 points in either one.  We're in good shape even if we lose one and draw the other.  The most important thing is to get a good result against Panama so that they can't jump us for the #3 spot in the table. 

 

I'm circling the March 27th match against Panama as the biggest one by a huge margin.  I'd actually even say the upcoming home match against Honduras is the second most important, because 6 points in those two "should win" matches gets us inches from automatic qualification.  After looking at Costa Rica's remaining matches, they have a brutal closing stretch so it's likely they will be more than 3 points behind USMNT on the final day of qualifying.  

Edited by aphilso1
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Greg’s poor player selection showed here today, he got out coached bad and for the second straight game we had very poor distribution in the final third.  Our lack of bringing a quality striker (Pepi could get there but the kid is young and trying to adjust to a much better league) but old stone foot Zardes and bringing Ferreira to play as a false 9?  (Really difficult system to run without a true stud up top) just boggles my mind.  We probably are still going to qualify, but we have to win our last two home games.  Help from Mexico and Jamaica would help a ton today as well.  

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15 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Panama is only one point behind.  SMH. Ridiculous.

 

Yeah, but do you really expect them to be only a point behind after Wednesday night?  US is hosting Honduras while Panama is going to Mexico City.  Look at their remaining schedule and likely results:

 

@Mex (0)

Honduras (3)

@USA (0)

Canada (1)

 

They are realistically going to need to take 3 points on the road in one of the USMNT's better environments (Orlando) to have a shot at leapfrogging us.  From their perspective, that's not a match they had circled as a 'win' going into this qualification cycle. 

 

Let me reiterate what I said prior to the Canada match.  That game was NOT one of the biggest remaining qualifiers for us.  A win would have been amazing, a tie would have been nice, but a loss on the road against the team at the top of the table really isn't bad.  The home match against Panama is far and away the biggest match on the schedule, and this coming home match against Honduras is the second most important.  Get the three points on Wednesday that we should, and we are in fantastic shape heading into the February window.

 

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1st off— crazy that Jamaica and El Salvador still have a chance.

 

Its also crazy we’re that large but yet have one of the toughest four game stretches to end it.  I wonder how big of a factor that has in us playing Panama at home next window.

 

Nice thing is Panama goes to Mexico on Wednesday.  After that, next window they host Honduras and Canada

and go to the US.

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1 minute ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Yeah, but do you really expect them to be only a point behind after Wednesday night?  US is hosting Honduras while Panama is going to Mexico City.  Look at their remaining schedule and likely results:

 

@Mex (0)

Honduras (3)

@USA (0)

Canada (1)

 

They are realistically going to need to take 3 points on the road in one of the USMNT's better environments (Orlando) to have a shot at leapfrogging us.  From their perspective, that's not a match they had circled as a 'win' going into this qualification cycle. 

 

Let me reiterate what I said prior to the Canada match.  That game was NOT one of the biggest remaining qualifiers for us.  A win would have been amazing, a tie would have been nice, but a loss on the road against the team at the top of the table really isn't bad.  The home match against Panama is far and away the biggest match on the schedule, and this coming home match against Honduras is the second most important.  Get the three points on Wednesday that we should, and we are in fantastic shape heading into the February window.

 


Agree— it’s just frustrating because you know weird things happen in Concacaf, and I just don’t even want to put ourselves in a bad position.

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Just now, hskr4life said:


Agree— it’s just frustrating because you know weird things happen in Concacaf, and I just don’t even want to put ourselves in a bad position.

 

I get it.  It'd be nice to have qualification sown up prior to March, and use those three matches to cap tie young players while not worrying about results.  But we still have a lot of things going for us:

 

1. The #4 seed actually has a tougher remaining schedule than us

2. Our remaining "must get result" matches are at home

3. CONCACAF is finally using VAR, so the number of CONCACAF shenanigans should be reduced

4. If the worst case scenario happens and we head to the final match at Costa Rica needing a result, at least we know that they aren't going to park the bus.  It will be the final WC qualifier for a big chunk of their aging roster, and you can count on them wanting to go out with a win over the US.  If we need a win, then I'd much rather play against a team like that rather than a 10-man backline like a lot of the minnows employ against us.

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2 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

I get it.  It'd be nice to have qualification sown up prior to March, and use those three matches to cap tie young players while not worrying about results.  But we still have a lot of things going for us:

 

1. The #4 seed actually has a tougher remaining schedule than us

2. Our remaining "must get result" matches are at home

3. CONCACAF is finally using VAR, so the number of CONCACAF shenanigans should be reduced

4. If the worst case scenario happens and we head to the final match at Costa Rica needing a result, at least we know that they aren't going to park the bus.  It will be the final WC qualifier for a big chunk of their aging roster, and you can count on them wanting to go out with a win over the US.  If we need a win, then I'd much rather play against a team like that rather than a 10-man backline like a lot of the minnows employ against us.


The one thing I hope beyond hope doesn’t happen is that we go to CR and are only 2-3 points up on them.  We have the goal differential on them right now.  A nice 2-0 or 3-0 win on Wednesday would be good.

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12 minutes ago, 49r said:

This is Canada:  https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/CAN

 

...and we made them look like a top ten in the world side yesterday.


To be fair, I think Canada will be moving up and they’ve showed well against Mexico and the US so far.  Took 4 points from each of us which is pretty impressive.  They might be the top team in Concacaf right now.

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24 minutes ago, hskr4life said:


To be fair, I think Canada will be moving up and they’ve showed well against Mexico and the US so far.  Took 4 points from each of us which is pretty impressive.  They might be the top team in Concacaf right now.

 

I think that says a lot more about the USMNT and Mexico than it does about Canada though, TBH.  I heard yesterday on Sirius XM FC that the average age of the Canada roster is something like 33 years old, so they are a bunch of geriatrics out there.  I'm not sure they deserve to move up that much in the rankings.

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2 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

I think that says a lot more about the USMNT and Mexico than it does about Canada though, TBH.  I heard yesterday on Sirius XM FC that the average age of the Canada roster is something like 33 years old, so they are a bunch of geriatrics out there.  I'm not sure they deserve to move up that much in the rankings.

 

5 straight wins.  Zero losses in their ten matches thus far.  Their roster isn't intimidating but somehow they have caught lightning in a bottle.  

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34 minutes ago, hskr4life said:


The one thing I hope beyond hope doesn’t happen is that we go to CR and are only 2-3 points up on them.  We have the goal differential on them right now.  A nice 2-0 or 3-0 win on Wednesday would be good.

 

Yeah, I could see them running off 7 points in their next three matches, or zero points.  Their schedule is odd in that they have the easy teams on the road and tough teams at home.  CR could walk away with a win, loss, or draw in each of their remaining matches.

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52 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

5 straight wins.  Zero losses in their ten matches thus far.  Their roster isn't intimidating but somehow they have caught lightning in a bottle.  

 

That's great for them, this is a golden era no doubt.  But how long will it last?

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28 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

That's great for them, this is a golden era no doubt.  But how long will it last?

 

Probably about as long as Nebraska's 2014 post-season.  I could see them fizzling out in group stage in the World Cup.  But that doesn't detract from how consistent they are playing right now.

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Not sure how I feel about playing tonight's match in near-0 degree weather.  While I understand the psychological advantage of picking the battlefield and making the Hondurans experience cold for the first time, it seems like that type of temperature can really bog the game down and lessen the superior team's advantage.  If we were playing Mexico I'd be all for this.  Heck, play the match in Anchorage in that case.  But it seems that playing an interior foe in bizarre conditions could potentially backfire.

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