MLS and Sporting KC - Official Thread

[49r]

Pretty sure we have a little bit to play for in winning.  So as much as it’s improbable we lose by 6… it’s also not a game where we have nothing to play for.

AFAIK the only thing of consequence for us to play for now is to move up to pot 1 on the WC draw, and the odds of that happening are astronomical so in reality the only thing we really have to do is not screw it up and lose by 6 goals or more.

[hskr4life]

1 hour ago, 49r said:

AFAIK the only thing of consequence for us to play for now is to move up to pot 1 on the WC draw, and the odds of that happening are astronomical so in reality the only thing we really have to do is not screw it up and lose by 6 goals or more.

Are we guaranteed pot 2 already?

[uneblinstu]

Does their standing in the table have any impact in their WC draw?

[hskr4life]

31 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

Does their standing in the table have any impact in their WC draw?

IIRC, it’s based on FIFA rankings right?

[49r]

49 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Are we guaranteed pot 2 already?

 

Yes, I believe we are essentially locked in to pot 2

 

41 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

Does their standing in the table have any impact in their WC draw?

 

No

 

10 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

IIRC, it’s based on FIFA rankings right?

 

Yes

[Keenan9595]

I’m super excited that once again LDLT had a great game, he’s a guy I expect to be in the 23 for Qatar and gives us some of the best depth possible.  IMO

[aphilso1]

2 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Are we guaranteed pot 2 already?

 

If Portugal wins tomorrow, then I believe that statistically closes the door on our chances for Pool 1.  If they lose, then we'd be in the running for that last slot.  We'll know if there's anything to play for 24 hours from now.

[49r]

58 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

If Portugal wins tomorrow, then I believe that statistically closes the door on our chances for Pool 1.  If they lose, then we'd be in the running for that last slot.  We'll know if there's anything to play for 24 hours from now.

 

 

 

So here's what needs to happen:

 

1 - Portugal lose (at home) to North Macedonia

2 - Netherlands lose or draw (at home) to Germany

3 - Mexico lose (at home) to El Salvador

4 - USMNT beat Costa Rica (in Costa Rica)

 

The follow up tweet to the one above says the probability of all that happening is just over 1%. Personally I think that's too high.

 

FIFA rankings as of now:

8 - Portugal

10 - Netherlands

11 - Germany

12 - Mexico

13 - USA

42 - Costa Rica

67 - North Macedonia

70 - El Salvador

[hskr4life]

It does sound like the boys want to go there and win.  So that's good.

 

In terms of LDLT, I have liked everything I've seen of him so far.  Honestly, when at full strength, there will be some awesome position battles that happen before Qatar.  There is going to be some decent names that are left off of the list in  November and that's a good problem to have.

[hskr4life]

1 hour ago, 49r said:

 

 

 

So here's what needs to happen:

 

1 - Portugal lose (at home) to North Macedonia

2 - Netherlands lose or draw (at home) to Germany

3 - Mexico lose (at home) to El Salvador

4 - USMNT beat Costa Rica (in Costa Rica)

 

The follow up tweet to the one above says the probability of all that happening is just over 1%. Personally I think that's too high.

 

FIFA rankings as of now:

8 - Portugal

10 - Netherlands

11 - Germany

12 - Mexico

13 - USA

42 - Costa Rica

67 - North Macedonia

70 - El Salvador

 

What has the higher chance?  Us jumping into Pot 1 or us having to play the Intercontinental playoff?  

[49r]

29 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

What has the higher chance?  Us jumping into Pot 1 or us having to play the Intercontinental playoff?  

 

It's pretty similar probably if I'm honest.

 

https://theathletic.com/3214592/2022/03/28/concacaf-world-cup-qualifying-odds-picks-united-states-mexico-set-to-join-canada-in-qatar/

 

Also there's this little nugget:

 

 

[nuhusker7]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

It does sound like the boys want to go there and win.  So that's good.

I also believe there are 6 or 7 or Costa Rica’s top players that are sitting on a yellow. If they get a yellow the would be out for the intercontinental playoff. I would not be surprised if they are cautious and save their team for that playoff rather than hoping for a miracle winning by 6 or more.

[aphilso1]

3 hours ago, 49r said:

The follow up tweet to the one above says the probability of all that happening is just over 1%. Personally I think that's too high.

 

What will be really interesting is if the US and Mexico both win, boosting each other's strength of schedule.  Could it be enough to leapfrog both Netherlands and Germany if they tie each other?  Probably a moot point, as Portugal will likely clinch tomorrow anyway.

[HuskerFever]

Let's just not get our hopes up that we're in the "big dance" and end up with a #5 seed in the NIT.

 

One step at a time. Qualify first.

[hskr4life]

13 hours ago, nuhusker7 said:

I also believe there are 6 or 7 or Costa Rica’s top players that are sitting on a yellow. If they get a yellow the would be out for the intercontinental playoff. I would not be surprised if they are cautious and save their team for that playoff rather than hoping for a miracle winning by 6 or more.

Does the yellow card accumulation carry over to the playoff?

[49r]

53 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Does the yellow card accumulation carry over to the playoff?

 

If you mean to the inter-continental playoff, yes I believe so.  See page 21 here:

 

https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/0263-10f46ad3158d-d735f61afd27-1000/fifa_world_cup_2022_preliminary_competition_regulations-covid19_1_.pdf

 

All continental qualifying tournaments and the playoff that the CONCACAF #4 team plays vs the winner of the OFC is considered part of the "preliminary competition" phase of the World Cup.

[hskr4life]

Well that makes things interesting.

[49r]

21 hours ago, 49r said:

 

 

 

So here's what needs to happen:

 

1 - Portugal lose (at home) to North Macedonia

2 - Netherlands lose or draw (at home) to Germany

3 - Mexico lose (at home) to El Salvador

4 - USMNT beat Costa Rica (in Costa Rica)

 

The follow up tweet to the one above says the probability of all that happening is just over 1%. Personally I think that's too high.

 

FIFA rankings as of now:

8 - Portugal

10 - Netherlands

11 - Germany

12 - Mexico

13 - USA

42 - Costa Rica

67 - North Macedonia

70 - El Salvador

 

Portugal is leading N Macedonia 2-0 with about 15 minutes left, so I think that pot 1 is now completely out of reach for us.  FWIW.

[aphilso1]

It's finished, so we are officially eliminated from Pot 1.  The only options now are Pot 2 (99.9% likelihood) or Pot 4 if we were to lose by 6 goals and therefore have to backdoor our way in via the intercontinental playoff.  By FIFAs rules, all intercontinental qualifiers are automatically put into Pot 4 regardless of FIFA ranking.  there is no mathematical way of dropping to Pot 3.

[aphilso1]

On a related note, how cool would it be if Mexico loses by 1?  We could leave an open goal in the final few minutes of the match, allowing Costa Rica to beat us by 4 and thus have CR finish 3rd and El Tri finish 4th.  That would be EPIC!

[hskr4life]

Greg’s not screwing around.  Would have liked to see Gio get at least one start.  Oh well.  We should have some warm up friendlies he can play in.

[hskr4life]

Bitter Sweet.  Looked like poo tonight… but we’re Qatar bound.  

[HuskerFever]

8 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Bitter Sweet.  Looked like poo tonight… but we’re Qatar bound.  

 

[hskr4life]

Group Draw is tomorrow.  Who are we hoping to get?

[aphilso1]

18 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Group Draw is tomorrow.  Who are we hoping to get?

 

I just want to be in Qatar's group, and avoid Senegal from Pot 3. 

 

Pot 4 is actually pretty stout, when you consider we aren't allowed to draw New Zealand (since they still have a playoff against our fellow CONCACAF member Costa Rica) nor Canada.  Plus Wales is likely the final UEFA qualifier.  Then you have a couple of South American sides in Pot 4, too. Ghana would really be a best case draw for us, and would have the added benefit of meaning we can't draw Senegal from Pot 3.