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2021-2022 expectations


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Key returners (5 of our top 6 scorers):

 

Trey

Dalano

Lat

Kobe

Derrick

Eduardo

Trevor

 

Key additions

 

Bryce

Wilhelm

Keisei

CJ

 

Key losses:

 

Teddy

Thor?

Shamiel?

Yvan

 

What our roster was missing this past year was ample shooters. We're adding 3 really capable shooters and a big who could develop into a pick-and-pop stretch 4. We've clearly helped ourselves in the locker room. Teddy was our most prolific scorer, but I think that came at a cost. We're potentially replacing Thor with someone who can stretch the floor by being a legit threat to drain 3s. And, as much of a great kid as Yvan is, he was a liability on offense. I look at those "key" losses and I'm not sure I feel like that's much of a net loss, to be perfectly honest.

 

All of the key returners will be a year more seasoned. Typical progression is that players are better in year 4 than they were in year 3, and year 3 is typically better than year 2. Year 2 tends to be a LOT better than year 1. The old adage for success in college basketball is "get old and stay old." Experience matters. So, we're going to return a lot of experience. But we fill the holes with some skillsets we really needed to be successful last year.

 

We won't be worse that we were last year. In fact, we should be one whole hell of a lot better. How much is hard to say. I'm hoping enough to get well over .500 and get into the post-season somewhere.

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19 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Key returners (5 of our top 6 scorers):

 

Trey

Dalano

Lat

Kobe

Derrick

Eduardo

Trevor

 

Key additions

 

Bryce

Wilhelm

Keisei

CJ

 

Key losses:

 

Teddy

Thor?

Shamiel?

Yvan

 

What our roster was missing this past year was ample shooters. We're adding 3 really capable shooters and a big who could develop into a pick-and-pop stretch 4. We've clearly helped ourselves in the locker room. Teddy was our most prolific scorer, but I think that came at a cost. We're potentially replacing Thor with someone who can stretch the floor by being a legit threat to drain 3s. And, as much of a great kid as Yvan is, he was a liability on offense. I look at those "key" losses and I'm not sure I feel like that's much of a net loss, to be perfectly honest.

 

All of the key returners will be a year more seasoned. Typical progression is that players are better in year 4 than they were in year 3, and year 3 is typically better than year 2. Year 2 tends to be a LOT better than year 1. The old adage for success in college basketball is "get old and stay old." Experience matters. So, we're going to return a lot of experience. But we fill the holes with some skillsets we really needed to be successful last year.

 

We won't be worse that we were last year. In fact, we should be one whole hell of a lot better. How much is hard to say. I'm hoping enough to get well over .500 and get into the post-season somewhere.

So a roster of 11 key keepers & additions plus Shamiel and Thor undecided. I don't see Lakes or Keisei being getting much playing time for what I think will be their defensive liability. Only way they will crack major rotation minutes is if they both make 3's at high percentage. That does however leave a very good 9 man rotation which I believe will be very competitive and gives NU chance to get to 7th or 8th, especially with coaching changes and players leaving other B10 programs. Will also be interesting to see how all the other B10 teams get transfers.

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32 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Key returners (5 of our top 6 scorers):

 

Trey

Dalano

Lat

Kobe

Derrick

Eduardo

Trevor

 

Key additions

 

Bryce

Wilhelm

Keisei

CJ

 

Key losses:

 

Teddy

Thor?

Shamiel?

Yvan

 

What our roster was missing this past year was ample shooters. We're adding 3 really capable shooters and a big who could develop into a pick-and-pop stretch 4. We've clearly helped ourselves in the locker room. Teddy was our most prolific scorer, but I think that came at a cost. We're potentially replacing Thor with someone who can stretch the floor by being a legit threat to drain 3s. And, as much of a great kid as Yvan is, he was a liability on offense. I look at those "key" losses and I'm not sure I feel like that's much of a net loss, to be perfectly honest.

 

All of the key returners will be a year more seasoned. Typical progression is that players are better in year 4 than they were in year 3, and year 3 is typically better than year 2. Year 2 tends to be a LOT better than year 1. The old adage for success in college basketball is "get old and stay old." Experience matters. So, we're going to return a lot of experience. But we fill the holes with some skillsets we really needed to be successful last year.

 

We won't be worse that we were last year. In fact, we should be one whole hell of a lot better. How much is hard to say. I'm hoping enough to get well over .500 and get into the post-season somewhere.

Can we start the preliminary starting 5 predictions yet? I’m assuming Shamiel is leaving. Thor and Dalano are still up in the air, as far as I know. But I’m going to assume Thor will head back to Iceland and Dalano stays. I also expect us to add a couple more players, so this can/will change. 
 

G - Trey McGowens

G - Bryce McGowens 

G - CJ Wilcher 

F - Lat Mayen

F - Derrick Walker 


Bench rotation players: 

G - Kobe Webster 

C - Eduardo Andre

G - Dalano Banton 

F - Wilhelm Breidenbach 

 

Spot/situational minutes:

F - Trevor Lakes 

G - Keisei Tominaga 

 

I was probably Dalano’s biggest advocate this past year. But there’s no doubt we were better without him in the starting lineup towards the end of the year. Will be interested to see how his role evolves if he comes back. 
I think the biggest question this offseason will be just how good/valuable Bryce will be as a freshman. Comparing him to similarly ranked players in last years class who also have similar play styles - Will he be Bryce Thompson, a guy who really struggled as a freshman on a team who needed a guard to step up and be a reliable scorer? Or can he be Jaden Springer, a guy who was the best player on a really good team that was stocked full of solid guards? Or something in between?

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If you're trying to predict what Bryce will be like as a freshman, why not try a comparison with his brother?  11.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.9 spg as a freshman in the ACC.

 

Season School Conf G GS MP FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS   SOS
2018-19 Pitt ACC 33 32 27.8 3.4 8.2 .417 2.5 5.2 .468 1.0 3.0 .327 3.8 5.0 .764 0.6 2.6 3.2 1.7 1.9 0.1 2.4 2.8 11.6   6.69
2019-20 Pitt ACC 33 32 33.6 3.8 10.2 .367 2.5 6.2 .403 1.2 4.0 .311 2.8 3.8 .722 0.5 2.8 3.3 3.6 1.9 0.1 2.8 2.4 11.5   7.3

 

Comparing the numbers they put up in high school (at Wren HS - not counting their senior years at Hargrave and Legacy):

 

 

ppg

rpg

apg

spg

fg%

3pt%

ft%

w

l

Bryce - Jr.

25.3

6.4

3.1

1.8

53

38

76

25

5

Bryce - So.

26

3.8

3

1.7

55

45

79

22

7

Bryce - Fr.

18.4

2

2.3

1

41

41

70

10

15

Trey - Jr.

18.3

4.3

6.8

3.6

52

39

71

23

5

Trey - So.

18.2

3.8

3.3

2.4

41

27

70

13

12

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

If you're trying to predict what Bryce will be like as a freshman, why not try a comparison with his brother?  11.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.9 spg as a freshman in the ACC.

 

Season School Conf G GS MP FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS   SOS
2018-19 Pitt ACC 33 32 27.8 3.4 8.2 .417 2.5 5.2 .468 1.0 3.0 .327 3.8 5.0 .764 0.6 2.6 3.2 1.7 1.9 0.1 2.4 2.8 11.6   6.69
2019-20 Pitt ACC 33 32 33.6 3.8 10.2 .367 2.5 6.2 .403 1.2 4.0 .311 2.8 3.8 .722 0.5 2.8 3.3 3.6 1.9 0.1 2.8 2.4 11.5   7.3

 

Comparing the numbers they put up in high school (at Wren HS - not counting their senior years at Hargrave and Legacy):

 

 

ppg

rpg

apg

spg

fg%

3pt%

ft%

w

l

Bryce - Jr.

25.3

6.4

3.1

1.8

53

38

76

25

5

Bryce - So.

26

3.8

3

1.7

55

45

79

22

7

Bryce - Fr.

18.4

2

2.3

1

41

41

70

10

15

Trey - Jr.

18.3

4.3

6.8

3.6

52

39

71

23

5

Trey - So.

18.2

3.8

3.3

2.4

41

27

70

13

12

 

 

 

 

Thing is, they’re very different players. Bryce has always been a smooth scorer. My NBA comparison for him is Caris Levert. But he may take more time to get acclimated to the physicality at this level. In the games he played in on the ESPN networks this year, he got pushed off his spot pretty easily and the more physical defenders really disrupted his game.

Whereas Trey was a strong, physical, aggressive guard from the get-go. Like an Avery Bradley type. Physically, he was ready as a freshman. But, his production has been the same freshman through junior year. He doesn’t have the upside that Bryce has. Bryce’s skillset and potential on both ends of the floor is something we’ve probably never seen before here. If he’s able to quickly add some functional strength and develop somewhat of a bulldog mindset like his brother, his freshman year could be special. 

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10 hours ago, millerhusker said:

G - Trey McGowens

G - Bryce McGowens 

G - CJ Wilcher 

F - Lat Mayen

F - Derrick Walker 

 

This lineup makes sense as you can have either McGowens as facilitators, Wilcher and Mayen as shooters, and Walker in the paint. That's 4 above average 3pt shooters on the floor.

 

Questions/Thoughts

I don't think I see a point guard. Does this offense work properly being run with a couple of combo guards? Are turnovers still a problem with this lineup? What about ball movement?

Think about starting Banton at the 4 over Mayen because someone out there needs to grab rebounds if the other 3 guys provide enough shooting. How much of Mayen's shooting and Banton's rebounding can Breidenbach approximate in his first year? 

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15 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

This lineup makes sense as you can have either McGowens as facilitators, Wilcher and Mayen as shooters, and Walker in the paint. That's 4 above average 3pt shooters on the floor.

 

Questions/Thoughts

I don't think I see a point guard. Does this offense work properly being run with a couple of combo guards? Are turnovers still a problem with this lineup? What about ball movement?

Think about starting Banton at the 4 over Mayen because someone out there needs to grab rebounds if the other 3 guys provide enough shooting. How much of Mayen's shooting and Banton's rebounding can Breidenbach approximate in his first year? 

I’m still not completely sold on Lat being a starter on a successful power conference team and think Breidenbach will he given a chance to contribute immediately if he’s ready 

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2 hours ago, hhcmatt said:

 

This lineup makes sense as you can have either McGowens as facilitators, Wilcher and Mayen as shooters, and Walker in the paint. That's 4 above average 3pt shooters on the floor.

 

Questions/Thoughts

I don't think I see a point guard. Does this offense work properly being run with a couple of combo guards? Are turnovers still a problem with this lineup? What about ball movement?

Think about starting Banton at the 4 over Mayen because someone out there needs to grab rebounds if the other 3 guys provide enough shooting. How much of Mayen's shooting and Banton's rebounding can Breidenbach approximate in his first year? 

 

Dalano got a lot of rebounds in open space because the big uglies were boxing out.  If Dalano is the 4, that means he's the guy doing the boxing out.  Is he still a + rebounder if he's wrestling with a guy that is his height and 30 lbs heavier?  Maybe.  But I don't know if we are automatically a much better rebounding team simply by swapping Dalano in for Lat.

 

As for the other questions, yes the offense can be run properly through two combo guards but I would still expect we will be a team that turns the ball over at an average-to-above-average rate.  I've got to think ball movement will be better.  If for no other reason, because those two combo guards are brothers and want the other player to look good too.

Edited by aphilso1
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I think it's a lot of conjecture until we see the PG Hoiberg pulls from the portal.

 

I feel like there's almost no way we don't end up with a decent one.  

 

I also wouldn't personally put Keisei in the same boat at Lakes at all.  He's the #2 JUCO SG according to 24/7 and can shoot the mess out of the ball.  

 

He went 11/16 from three a couple weeks ago in one game.  That's not normal.  His form is perfect and he's an in-game dunker at 6'1".  Defensive liability?  Probably due to his slight frame but not his quickness.  Potential offensive juggernaut?  Absolutely.

 

 

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53 minutes ago, LK1 said:

I think it's a lot of conjecture until we see the PG Hoiberg pulls from the portal.

 

I feel like there's almost no way we don't end up with a decent one.  

 

I also wouldn't personally put Keisei in the same boat at Lakes at all.  He's the #2 JUCO SG according to 24/7 and can shoot the mess out of the ball.  

 

He went 11/16 from three a couple weeks ago in one game.  That's not normal.  His form is perfect and he's an in-game dunker at 6'1".  Defensive liability?  Probably due to his slight frame but not his quickness.  Potential offensive juggernaut?  Absolutely.

 

 

Just to clarify... 247 generally only ranks juco players who have reported offers and/or are committed somewhere. Keisei is actually ranked last of the shooting guards and players overall in the 2021 juco class. We were also his only reported offer.

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3 hours ago, millerhusker said:

Just to clarify... 247 generally only ranks juco players who have reported offers and/or are committed somewhere. Keisei is actually ranked last of the shooting guards and players overall in the 2021 juco class. We were also his only reported offer.


Right... I don’t think that changes much.  If you aren’t any good, you won’t be offered and therefore not ranked.  Rivals called him a top guard and 247 has him ranked higher than Lat was when he came out.  
 

As for not getting other offers, Doc and Billy G are best friends so I’m sure that had a lot to do with it.  Not saying the kid wasn’t under the radar, but anyone with eyes can see he can shoot it.  And he is, in fact, ranked high given the entire criteria. 

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4 hours ago, LK1 said:


Right... I don’t think that changes much.  If you aren’t any good, you won’t be offered and therefore not ranked.  Rivals called him a top guard and 247 has him ranked higher than Lat was when he came out.  
 

As for not getting other offers, Doc and Billy G are best friends so I’m sure that had a lot to do with it.  Not saying the kid wasn’t under the radar, but anyone with eyes can see he can shoot it.  And he is, in fact, ranked high given the entire criteria. 

Oh I’m optimistic for Keisei’s future, just not sure how ready he’ll be next year. If we add a transfer point guard, that gives us 12 on the roster who can all play at this level. But we aren’t going to play 12 guys consistently. We’ll play 7-9 and if we play 9, one or two of those bench rotation players are usually unhappy with their minutes. Which rotation players would you move to spot minutes to make room for Keisei? If he’s good enough to take any of those guys’ minutes that’d be fantastic for us, as his skill of shooting the ball is perfect for what we need. 

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If a kid is willing and able to come off the bench for 4 or 5 minutes per half and drill a few three's, I would be giddy.

I have no clue what the coaches have in mind for Keisei; but you can find a way out of commitments if necessary and we haven't done so.  My bet is that this young man will somehow be a welcome and contributing addition to our squad. 

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2 hours ago, millerhusker said:

Oh I’m optimistic for Keisei’s future, just not sure how ready he’ll be next year. If we add a transfer point guard, that gives us 12 on the roster who can all play at this level. But we aren’t going to play 12 guys consistently. We’ll play 7-9 and if we play 9, one or two of those bench rotation players are usually unhappy with their minutes. Which rotation players would you move to spot minutes to make room for Keisei? If he’s good enough to take any of those guys’ minutes that’d be fantastic for us, as his skill of shooting the ball is perfect for what we need. 


Agree with all of this.  As to your question, I think he’s worth throwing out there for a heat check every game.  On occasion, the spot minutes will turn into starter minutes because he’ll make a bunch of shots.  He’ll be great against zones.  
 

I also agree that we’ll have 7-9 in the regular rotation, but what I like about the roster is that 7-9 can change each game based on what matchups or systems we want to exploit. 

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I think it's problematic to have multiple guys under 6'4" on the court unless they possess elite closing speed the way we want to play defense.

We're guarding to take away the paint without the benefit of an elite shot blocker inside.  Closing on 3pt shooters becomes an exercise in length, speed, and reaction. Kobe and Keisei on the court at the same time seems problematic.  At this point, we can easily play them not at the same time. If we add a 6'0" pg to the mix we've got 3 guys you don't necessarily want to play together.

 

Ignoring defense (like Hoiberg seemingly did the first half of the season), I'll say that when i'm looking at lineups right now the first thing I think of is whether or not a guy can make 3s and I need at least 3 of them on the court at the same time.  It does seem like we're making progress in acquiring those types of players.

 

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25 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

I think it's problematic to have multiple guys under 6'4" on the court unless they possess elite closing speed the way we want to play defense.

We're guarding to take away the paint without the benefit of an elite shot blocker inside.  Closing on 3pt shooters becomes an exercise in length, speed, and reaction. Kobe and Keisei on the court at the same time seems problematic.  At this point, we can easily play them not at the same time. If we add a 6'0" pg to the mix we've got 3 guys you don't necessarily want to play together.

 

Ignoring defense (like Hoiberg seemingly did the first half of the season), I'll say that when i'm looking at lineups right now the first thing I think of is whether or not a guy can make 3s and I need at least 3 of them on the court at the same time.  It does seem like we're making progress in acquiring those types of players.

 

 

Agree.  I don't think we'll see Kobe and Keisei on the court at the same time under any circumstances.  Kobe is probably a better all around player than Keisei, but his size pretty much relegates him to a 3pt specialist on offense in a big boy conference.  Keisei is purely a 3pt specialist.  He might be a worse player than Kobe but more effective for Fred's system, even as a decoy that stretches the defense.  He can probably come in for Kobe, Bryce, or Trey if any of them need a breather or are particularly off from the perimeter one night.  

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On 3/26/2021 at 2:25 PM, kldm64 said:

NU basketball fans need to stop having a defeatist attitude and low expectations.  I see other schools that don't have our budget, facilities, conference and have better programs.  There is no reason NU cannot and should not be competitive in basketball. With what NU has coming back next year, I will be extremely disappointed if we don't finish in the top half of the conference with a winning conference record.

100000000000%

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