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khoock

CFP Contenders 2019

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Good morning all,

 

We are 7 weeks into the season and CFP contenders are starting to emerge and resumes are starting to take shape. Below is a list of CFP contenders. I consider every undefeated team and all one loss P5 teams. I rank teams by this years results and do not consider brand names or percieved talent levels. I will update my rankings every week as teams get eliminated and resumes improve/diminish. Feel free to add in your own thoughts, questions, and opinions.

 

1. LSU 6-0

2. Ohio State 6-0

3. Clemson 6-0

4. Alabama 6-0

5. Wisconsin 6-0

6. Oklahoma 6-0

7. Penn State 6-0

8. Florida 6-1

9. Auburn 5-1

10. Oregon 5-1

11. Georgia 5-1

12. Notre Dame 5-1

13. Baylor 6-0

14. Michigan 5-1

15. Boise State 6-0

16. Arizona State 5-1

17. Appalachian State 5-0

18. SMU 6-0

19. Minnesota 6-0

20. Wake Forest 5-1

21. Utah 5-1

22. Missouri 5-1

Edited by khoock

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31 minutes ago, khoock said:

Good morning all,

 

We are 7 weeks into the season and CFP contenders are starting to emerge and resumes are starting to take shape. Below is a list of CFP contenders. I consider every undefeated team and all one loss P5 teams. I rank teams by this years results and do not consider brand names or percieved talent levels. I will update my rankings every week as teams get eliminated and resumes improve/diminish. Feel free to add in your own thoughts, questions, and opinions.

 

1. LSU 6-0

2. Ohio State 6-0

3. Clemson 6-0

4. Alabama 6-0

5. Wisconsin 6-0

6. Oklahoma 6-0

7. Penn State 6-0

8. Florida 6-1

9. Auburn 5-1

10. Oregon 5-1

11. Georgia 5-1

12. Notre Dame 5-1

13. Baylor 6-0

14. Michigan 5-1

15. Boise State 6-0

16. Arizona State 5-1

17. Appalachian State 5-0

18. SMU 6-0

19. Minnesota 6-0

20. Wake Forest 5-1

21. Utah 5-1

22. Missouri 5-1


Clemson too high IMO. Swap them and OU. OU looks to have found a defense which is a scary thing. But, I still don’t fully trust Hurts when he goes up against a good defense. 
 

Have to give Lincoln Riley credit. He recognized issues with his staff and went out and got well regarded DC.  

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12 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:


Clemson too high IMO. Swap them and OU. OU looks to have found a defense which is a scary thing. But, I still don’t fully trust Hurts when he goes up against a good defense. 
 

Have to give Lincoln Riley credit. He recognized issues with his staff and went out and got well regarded DC.  

I originally thought Alabama and Clemson would be much lower before I started digging in. But they both have four or five wins against teams .500 or better whereas Oklahoma only has two. That was my reasoning behind it. They definitely looked the part though yesterday.

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After Wk 8:

 

1. LSU

2. Ohio State

3. Penn State

4. Alabama

5. Clemson

6. Baylor

7. Oklahoma

8. Auburn

9. Oregon

10. Notre Dame

11. Florida

12. Georgia

13. Utah

14. Wisconsin 

15. SMU

16. Minnesota 

17. Wake Forest

18. Appalachian State

 

Notes from this week:

- Michigan, Boise State, Arizona State, and Missouri were all eliminated this week

- WISCONSIN WHAT THE HELL??!?!??!?!

- Teams 8-12 were hard to rank because there are some head to head victories involved but large gaps between resumes

- Penn State and Baylor with very strong undefeated resumes 

- Lots of big match ups to watch next week

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On 10/20/2019 at 9:38 AM, khoock said:

After Wk 8:

 

1. LSU

2. Ohio State

3. Penn State

4. Alabama

5. Clemson

6. Baylor

7. Oklahoma

8. Auburn

9. Oregon

10. Notre Dame

11. Florida

12. Georgia

13. Utah

14. Wisconsin 

15. SMU

16. Minnesota 

17. Wake Forest

18. Appalachian State

 

Notes from this week:

- Michigan, Boise State, Arizona State, and Missouri were all eliminated this week

- WISCONSIN WHAT THE HELL??!?!??!?!

- Teams 8-12 were hard to rank because there are some head to head victories involved but large gaps between resumes

- Penn State and Baylor with very strong undefeated resumes 

- Lots of big match ups to watch next week

 

I see GameDay in Waco in about 3 weeks.  They get to host OU which should be huge for them.  I don't know that they will beat OU, however.

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After Wk 9:

 

1. LSU 8-0

2. Ohio State 8-0

3. Penn State 8-0

4. Clemson 8-0

5. Baylor 7-0

6. Alabama 8-0

7. Florida 7-1

8. Oregon 7-1

9. Utah 7-1

10. Georgia 6-1

11. SMU 8-0

12. Minnesota 8-0

13. Oklahoma 7-1

14. Wake Forest 6-1

15. Appalachian State 7-0

 

Auburn, Notre Dame, and Wisconsin all eliminated this week.

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My predictions for Wk 10:

 

- Clemson v. Wofford: Tigers roll.

- Baylor v. West Virginia: Halloween night just calls for something weird to happen. But Baylor is coming off of a bye and at home. Bears stay undefeated.

- Georgia @ Florida: Florida is at home and playing well. Georgia hasnt looked right all season. Gators get a huge resume win and eliminate their rivals from playoff contention.

- Oregon @ USC: Oregon is surviving and advancing. USC HC is on the thinnest of ice possible. Ducks win on the road and keep their playoff hopes alive

- Utah @ Washington: Utah has been domimate since their loss to USC. Washington has been very hot and cold. I predict Washington brings their A game and eliminates the Utes from playoff contention.

- SMU @ Memphis: The Stangs have scored 34 points or more every game of the year. Memphis is really really good. SMU suffers their first loss of the year and get eliminated as Memphis takes control of the West Division in the AAC.

- Wake Forest v. NC State: Coming off of a bye and at home the Demon Deacons keep very slim playoff hopes alive for another week. NC State has some serious injury issues going on.

- Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern: App State takes on one of their better conferences foes on Halloween night. They stay undefeated and keep their hopes for a playoff bid or (way more likely) a New Years 6 Bowl bid alive.

- LSU, Ohio St, Penn St, Alabama, Minnesota, and Oklahoma all on bye weeks.

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After Wk 10:

 

1. LSU 8-0

2. Ohio State 8-0

3. Penn State 8-0

4. Clemson 9-0

5. Baylor 8-0

6. Alabama 8-0

7. Georgia 7-1

8. Oregon 8-1

9. Utah 8-1

10. Minnesota 8-0

11. Oklahoma 7-1

12. Wake Forest 7-1

 

Appalachian State, Florida, and SMU all eliminated this week.

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Actual rankings came out tonight. The committee gets a little bit of respect from me for including Penn State in the top 4  but it should have been Alabama on the outside looking in, not Clemson. I also agree with ranking Utah/Oregon over Oklahoma. Will they do it when the rankings actually matter? Probably not.

 

One question I would ask them is why is Baylor ranked so low; especially behind Oklahoma. Baylor has two wins over ranked teams (Okie St and K-State) on the road not to mention one of those wins is over a team that absolutely spanked Oklahoma.

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Another issue i have is why put Penn State ahead of Clemson but not Bama? The argument for Penn State over Bama or Clemson is almost identical. 

 

Penn State: two victories over current ranked teams plus Pitt

Bama & Clemson: 0 victories over currently ranked teams. Both with a solid win over TA&M

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Wk 11 Picks:

 

- LSU @ Alabama: No 9-6 final score in this one. Both teams have electric QBs and really good recievers. Tua's health is what makes me lean towards LSU. LSU wins 34-30.

- Ohio State v. Maryland: Ohio State rolls even without Chase Young.

- Penn State @ Minnesota: Minnesota's first real test. Should be an electric atmosphere in Minneapolis. Penn State has been unable to pull away from decent/good teams but they do in this one.

- Clemson @ NC State: Expect the defending champs to make a statement after being left out of the initial top 4. Clemson rolls.

- Baylor @ TCU: This will be another close one for Baylor but they stay undefeated and move another week closer towards a Game Day show down with Oklahoma.

- Georgia v. Missouri: Pivotal SEC East matchup. Both teams both control their own destiny. Georgia wins relatively easily at home.

- Oklahoma @ Iowa State: Sooners are coming into the resume building part of their schedule games against Iowa State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. They get the first of three today. Oklahoma wins.

- Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech: Who would have expected Wake Forest to be (hypothetical) playoff contention in November. Both teams have beencplaying very well as of late. A date with Clemson looms next week for the Demon Deacons. But it wont matter as their slim playoff hopes will be crushed today. Virginia Tech wins.

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1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

I hope Bama doesn’t make it this year.  Hope this knocks em out.

Absolutely no reason they should make it unless absolute chaos ensues the last three weeks. If they win out their best wins will be over 8-4 Auburn and Texas A&M. And those might be their only two wins over teams with winning records.

 

Hopefully the committee has a back bone. 

 

Plus it looks like each conference should have a legitimate contender this year which, in theory, should keep Bama out.

 

ACC: Clemson (13-0)

Big 12: Baylor (13-0) or Oklahoma (12-1)

Big Ten: Minnesota (13-0) or Ohio State (13-0/12-1) or Penn State (12-1)

Pac-12: Oregon (12-1) or Utah (12-1)

SEC: LSU (13-0/12-1) or Georgia (12-1)

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1 hour ago, 49r said:

Letting Orgeron go was the stupidest move USC ever made.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

He has really impressed me at LSU. But I disagree. I do not think he would have done at USC what he has done at LSU. Its hard to explain but I feel like its one of those perfect situations/chemistry.

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Two weeks left plus conference championship games. Things still very interesting! Heres my take on it:

 

1. LSU 10-0: Wins over Alabama, Florida, Auburn, and Texas. Cant argue with that. Even their gimme wins in non-con were over teams with winning records.

 

2. Ohio State 10-0: Wins over Wisconsin, Cincinnati, and Indiana plus (like LSU) their gimme non-cons were over teams with current winning records. Matchups with Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin/Minnesota could vault Ohio State to number 1.

 

3. Clemson 11-0: Undefeated and the defending national champions is all they have going for them. Wins over Texas A&M and Wake Forest are their best ones. Will not have any other chances for signature wins with South Carolina and a three/four loss ACC team all thats left on the schedule.

 

4. Penn State 9-1: Here is where things get controversial... Penn State has a great quartet of wins: Michigan, Iowa, Indiana, and Pitt. And their only loss is to a CFP contender. Great wins and a great loss. Thats my logic.

 

5. Georgia 9-1: The Bulldogs have great wins: Notre Dame, Florida, and Auburn. But own the worst loss of all CFP contenders (@ home versus South Carolina). That has to count for something.

 

6. Oregon 9-1: Good road wins over Washington and USC. And a tough opening season loss to Auburn, which they controlled and should have won. Pac-12 is hard to judge because they have a lot of solid teams and not a lot of bad ones. So we see a lot of 4-6 to 6-4 teams, which on paper makes it hard to build a good resume.

 

7. Minnesota 9-1: This weeks loss hurts bc their resume is severly lacking. They are clinging to their huge dub from last week. Good news is if they win out, with wins over a top ten Wisconsin and number 1/2 Ohio State they will have as good of a chance as anyone.

 

8. Oklahoma 9-1: Last nights game was a tale of two halfs for sure. Oklahoma was unstoppable on offense and their D was dominant during the second half. They now have victories over Baylor, Iowa State, and Texas. Not bad. A ranked bedlam showdown and probable rematch with the Bears loom.

 

9. Baylor 9-1: Oh BAYLOR! What did you do!? A win last night would have been huge to add in with current wins over Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Iowa State. Now they must take care of business against Texas and Kansas and grab a revenge game against Oklahoma.

 

10. Alabama 9-1: Not a good stretch for Bama. Feel bad for Tua, but their only wins over teams with a winning record are Texas A&M and Southern Miss. With the injury to Tua and the Charmin soft schedule they shouldn't sniff the top four. Maybe next year.

 

11. Utah 9-1: Good looking road wins over BYU and Washington. But not much else. They have been dominate since their loss at USC. Will need to win out and hope Oregon does too, in order to give them a marquee showdown (and possible CFP play-in game).

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Still so many scenarios in play when just considering huge matchups; not even potential off the radar upsets.

 

- Ohio State v. Penn State

- Ohio State v. Michigan 

- Minnesota v. Wisconsin

- Minnesota v. Penn State/Ohio State (potential)

- Alabama v. Auburn

- LSU v. Georgia (i think thats all but a lock)

- Baylor v. Oklahoma (i think thats all but a lock but team's records could still take a hit)

- Oregon v. Utah (potential)

Edited by khoock

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