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2019-2020 KenPom Rankings Thread


49r

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Well, no one likes a show off, so we’ve settled in nicely to the “meaty” part of the curve. Assuming the Islanders is a win (right?) we need to go 7-12 down the stretch to avoid 20 losses. I’m pessimistically counting a first round B1G tournament loss, putting us @ 13-19... After what I’ve seen so far good/bad, that appears daunting.

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26 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

Well, no one likes a show off, so we’ve settled in nicely to the “meaty” part of the curve. Assuming the Islanders is a win (right?) we need to go 7-12 down the stretch to avoid 20 losses. I’m pessimistically counting a first round B1G tournament loss, putting us @ 13-19... After what I’ve seen so far good/bad, that appears daunting.

I'm hoping we get to 10 wins, but I am not optimistic. That's probably 5-15 in the conference, or a number of tournament wins to compensate for any total fewer than five.

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Not a lot of movement other than Wisconsin jumping about 15 spots after their big win at Tennessee.

 

Here's today's KenPom update.

 

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 12-30-19
==========================

 

B1G (1-1)
3. Ohio State
5. Michigan State
8. Maryland
12. Purdue - W
13. Michigan
18. Iowa
23. Penn State
36. Wisconsin
40. Indiana - L
42. Minnesota
47. Illinois
52. Rutgers
107. Northwestern
134. Nebraska

 

Non-Conference (5-6)
209. UC Riverside - L
158. Southern Utah - L
170. South Dakota State - W
333. Southern - W

 

---Cayman Islands Classic---
143. Washington State - W
113. George Mason - L
119. South Florida - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
98. @Georgia Tech - L

 

49. @Creighton - L
231. North Dakota - L
295. Texas A&M Corpus Christi - W

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Wisconsin is on a white hot meteoric rise through the KenPom rankings.  They've gone from #60 to #24 in the month since they lost at NC State.  In that time they've gone 5-1 including wins at #45 Tennessee and a massive win at #3 Ohio State last night.  Their only loss in that time span?  Rutgers.  God, I hate Wisconsin.

 

Here's today's KenPom update.

 

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 01-04-20
==========================

 

B1G (1-2)
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan State
9. Maryland
12. Michigan
14. Purdue - W
19. Iowa
24. Wisconsin
25. Penn State
37. Indiana - L
38. Minnesota
43. Rutgers - L
47. Illinois
111. Northwestern
149. Nebraska

 

Non-Conference (5-6)
240. UC Riverside - L
166. Southern Utah - L
153. South Dakota State - W
333. Southern - W

 

---Cayman Islands Classic---
143. Washington State - W
134. George Mason - L
132. South Florida - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
95. @Georgia Tech - L

 

39. @Creighton - L
222. North Dakota - L
303. Texas A&M Corpus Christi - W

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Good.  F Iowa!

 

Here's today's KenPom update.

 

KenPom rankings as of 01-08-20
==========================

 

B1G (2-2)
3. Michigan State
4. Ohio State
7. Maryland
19. Michigan
21. Wisconsin
22. Purdue - W
23. Iowa - W
27. Penn State
31. Illinois
37. Rutgers - L
39. Minnesota
42. Indiana - L
105. Northwestern
137. Nebraska

 

Non-Conference (5-6)
233. UC Riverside - L
164. Southern Utah - L
141. South Dakota State - W
335. Southern - W

 

---Cayman Islands Classic---
138. Washington State - W
140. George Mason - L
120. South Florida - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
87. @Georgia Tech - L

 

45. @Creighton - L
206. North Dakota - L
306. Texas A&M Corpus Christi - W

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I got bored at work this afternoon, and as we pass the midway point of the season, I was curious about how things were going among the first-year coaches in Power 5 conferences so I thought I'd take a peek on KenPom to see how they stack up and I ended up writing a little article.  For your entertainment, here's what I came up with:

 


 

The 2019 College Basketball coaching carousel produced one of the most impressive crops of new coaches among Power 5 schools in recent memory, and right away several names jumped out among the national media as being home run hires.  Buzz Williams, Nate Oats, Fred Hoiberg and Eric Musselman being among the most highly regarded, with Juwan Howard being the late addition who seemed to stand head and shoulders above the rest as well as the one most well situated for early success.  Now that we've reached the midway point of the season, how are things shaping up?  Buzz and Fred have certainly stumbled, Oats and Musselman have impressed and Juwan, just as many expected, is holding court at the top.  Here is a brief synopsis of how things are going at all 10 of the Power 5 schools with first year coaches.  All rankings and numbers come courtesy of Ken Pomeroy https://kenpom.com

 

Alabama: Nate Oats
#50 (8-6)

Alabama’s first year coach Nate Oats has assembled an absolute murders row for his schedule so far (#43 non con and #26 SOS overall) and the team’s record is indicative of that schedule.  This Crimson Tide team is battle-tested and should not be intimidated by any team they face in the SEC.  They will not have a gaudy W-L record when the dust settles, but they will also have a strong case for an NCAA berth even as a sub-20 win team.  Pull off an upset here or there against an Auburn or Kentucky and they’ll be a lock.  But if for some reason they fall to the NIT, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win it.

 

Arkansas: Eric Musselman
#33 (12-2)

The second most impressive job among first season coaches belongs to coach Musselman.  Arkansas hasn’t really played anyone of note besides #28 LSU (L) and at #42 Indiana (W).  But what they have done, is win.  Their schedule strength is respectable but not impressive, and they look to rack up a mighty win total.  But even so, Arkansas is a team that (while they look to be a NCAA lock at the moment) seems destined for the play-in round in Dayton.

 

Cal: Mark Fox
#189 (7-8)

Cal has played one of the stronger non-con schedules in Power 5 this year, and they have the KenPom ranking and record to show for it.  Their best win is against #135 Fresno State but they’ve also suffered losses to #132 Boston College and #149 Santa Clara.  Cal is a prohibitive underdog in each of their remaining games, so breaking even double digits in wins seems like a long shot for the Bears.  No postseason is likely.

 

Michigan: Juwan Howard
#19 (11-4)

Easily the best start of the bunch, Michigan has reeled off a series of super-impressive wins against #9 Gonzaga, #20 Iowa and #22 Purdue while only losing to KenPom #3, #6, #16 and on the road against #29 Illinois.  The Wolverines may not contend for a Big Ten title, but they are a stone cold lock for the NCAA tournament.  They look like a 6-8 seed team as of now.

 

Nebraska: Fred Hoiberg
#138 (7-8)

Shockingly embarrassing losses to #220 UC Riverside, #151 Southern Utah, #156 George Mason and #211 North Dakota are only somewhat balanced out by wins against #22 Purdue and #20 Iowa.  Fred’s team do look like a bunch that is just starting to get some things figured out, but it’s likely too late for them to have any hope of any kind of postseason play this year.  The Big Ten is an absolute nightmare, and 3-4 wins out of the remaining 16 games would be an astonishing accomplishment.

 

Texas A&M: Buzz Williams
#164 (7-6)

Texas A&M may be the most disappointing of the group.  Like Nebraska, the Aggies have some head-scratching losses, and unlike the Huskers, there isn’t really a single marquee win in the bunch.  With SEC play getting underway, wins are going to be few and far between, it’s looking likely the Aggies will miss the postseason.

 

UCLA: Mick Cronin
#120 (8-7)

The Bruins have played a pretty weak schedule to date, the exception being a 13 point loss to Michigan State in Maui.  They have a couple of semi-embarrassing losses (#141 Hofstra, #278 Call State Fullerton and #147 Washington State) and one semi-impressive win at #43 Washington.  CBI may be the only hope for postseason for UCLA.

 

Vanderbilt: Jerry Stackhouse
#126 (8-6)

Vandy has put together a pretty unremarkable first half, their wins coming against mostly +200 and +300 KenPom teams.  But they also don’t have any embarrassing losses either.  The meat of their schedule is about to hit however, and there is most likely no post season for the Commodores this year.

 

Virginia Tech: Mike Young
#61 (11-4)

Virginia Tech has gotten off to a sneaky-good start at the midway point.  Their wins are against just the #351 Non-con schedule, but they have a decent win against #70 Syracuse and a fantastic win against #3 Michigan State.  Their losses are no embarrassment either, coming to #36, #32, #8 and #1.  The Hokies are looking like a solid NIT team right now with NCAA bubble being a legit aspiration.

 

Washington State: Kyle Smith
#147 (10-6)

The Cougars are racking up wins at a pretty impressive rate, until you take a look at their strength of schedule (#347 Non-con and #340 overall).  They’ve only played two teams ranked ahead of #120 UCLA, a loss at home against #79 USC and a neutral site win against #92 New Mexico.  The schedule strength flips in the second half with just two of their remaining 15 games against sub-100 ranked teams.  There is a strong possibility of just 1 more regular season win for the Cougs.  Postseason play is an extreme long shot.

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Looking at these rankings sends chills down my spine.

 

Here's today's KenPom update.

 

KenPom rankings as of 01-12-20
==========================

 

B1G (2-3)
3. Michigan State
8. Ohio State
12. Maryland
19. Michigan
20. Iowa - W
21. Wisconsin
23. Purdue - W
27. Illinois
31. Rutgers - L
32. Indiana - L
34. Penn State
38. Minnesota
104. Northwestern - L
135. Nebraska

 

Non-Conference (5-6)
215. UC Riverside - L
154. Southern Utah - L
126. South Dakota State - W
335. Southern - W

 

---Cayman Islands Classic---
156. Washington State - W
146. George Mason - L
123. South Florida - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
81. @Georgia Tech - L

 

35. @Creighton - L
212. North Dakota - L
292. Texas A&M Corpus Christi - W

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28 minutes ago, 49r said:

Looking at these rankings sends chills down my spine.

 

Here's today's KenPom update.

 

KenPom rankings as of 01-12-20
==========================

 

B1G (2-3)
3. Michigan State
8. Ohio State
12. Maryland
19. Michigan
20. Iowa - W
21. Wisconsin
23. Purdue - W
27. Illinois
31. Rutgers - L
32. Indiana - L
34. Penn State
38. Minnesota
104. Northwestern - L
135. Nebraska

 

It's statistically obvious that do better against the top half of the league so it's a good thing we go on the road to play an angry Ohio St. team that's dropped 4 in a row!  Grasping at straws here to keep the glass half full when it keeps getting knocked over 😥

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What realllllly sucks is that you flip the Riverside, SUU, and UND games in the non-con and then the game yesterday (this isn’t some magical thought either, it should have been expected to win those 4) and we’re sitting at 11-5, 3-2.  We’d be licking our chops instead of licking our wounds.

 

Whats if... what if.... what if..............

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40 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

What realllllly sucks is that you flip the Riverside, SUU, and UND games in the non-con and then the game yesterday (this isn’t some magical thought either, it should have been expected to win those 4) and we’re sitting at 11-5, 3-2.  We’d be licking our chops instead of licking our wounds.

 

Whats if... what if.... what if..............

 

When all is said and done, those losses in the non-conference will have no impact to our season. If we were sitting at 11-5 with that schedule, we'd still be on the outside looking in.

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2 hours ago, 49r said:

Looking at these rankings sends chills down my spine.

 

Here's today's KenPom update.

 

KenPom rankings as of 01-12-20
==========================

 

B1G (2-3)
3. Michigan State
8. Ohio State
12. Maryland
19. Michigan
20. Iowa - W
21. Wisconsin
23. Purdue - W
27. Illinois
31. Rutgers - L
32. Indiana - L
34. Penn State
38. Minnesota
104. Northwestern - L
135. Nebraska

 

Non-Conference (5-6)
215. UC Riverside - L
154. Southern Utah - L
126. South Dakota State - W
335. Southern - W

 

---Cayman Islands Classic---
156. Washington State - W
146. George Mason - L
123. South Florida - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
81. @Georgia Tech - L

 

35. @Creighton - L
212. North Dakota - L
292. Texas A&M Corpus Christi - W

 

Twelve Big Ten teams in the Kenpom top 40. But John Rothstein says the Big East is clearly the best conference in the country.

 

Whatevs.

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To further illustrate the point @Norm Peterson there is a MASSIVE gap between the Big Ten and the second-best conference.

 

Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's expected to go .500 in conference play

Conference Rating Conference Rating
1 Big Ten Conference +17.31 17 Colonial Athletic Association -3.28
2 Big 12 Conference +15.91 18 Summit League -3.89
3 Big East Conference +15.22 19 Big Sky Conference -4.24
4 Atlantic Coast Conference +12.22 20 Western Athletic Conference -5.55
5 Southeastern Conference +12.12 21 Horizon League -5.62
6 Pac 12 Conference +10.63 22 Big West Conference -5.67
7 American Athletic Conference +8.55 23 Patriot League -5.70
8 Atlantic 10 Conference +4.74 24 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference -6.49
9 West Coast Conference +4.19 25 America East Conference -7.91
10 Mountain West Conference +3.71 26 Atlantic Sun Conference -8.25
11 Missouri Valley Conference +1.93 27 Ohio Valley Conference -8.50
12 Mid American Conference +0.61 28 Northeast Conference -8.96
13 Conference USA -0.02 29 Big South Conference -9.89
14 Southern Conference -0.35 30 Southland Conference -9.95
15 Ivy League -1.02 31 Southwestern Athletic Conference -14.69
16 Sun Belt Conference -1.14 32 Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference -15.32
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34 minutes ago, 49r said:

Purdue's absolute de-pantsing of Michigan State earlier today pushed them up 6 spots to #17 and also moved Nebraska up 4 spots to #131!

I watched that game too & kept thinking:

A. Boy were we lucky that Purdue couldn’t throw it in the ocean when we played them. AND

B. How many of those de-pantsings do we have in OUR future...?

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I'm having trouble grasping just exactly how Iowa is moving up the way they are.

 

Here's today's KenPom update.

 

KenPom rankings as of 01-15-20
==========================

 

B1G (2-4)
7. Michigan State
10. Ohio State - L
11. Maryland
16. Iowa - W
17. Purdue - W
21. Michigan
22. Wisconsin
29. Illinois
33. Rutgers - L
34. Minnesota
35. Indiana - L
37. Penn State
108. Northwestern - L
129. Nebraska

 

Non-Conference (5-6)
214. UC Riverside - L
153. Southern Utah - L
126. South Dakota State - W
332. Southern - W

 

---Cayman Islands Classic---
155. Washington State - W
150. George Mason - L
124. South Florida - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
83. @Georgia Tech - L

 

36. @Creighton - L
212. North Dakota - L
292. Texas A&M Corpus Christi - W

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17 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

Looks like if we just keep losing by a dozen, we'll crack the top 100 by the end of the year.

 

I mean, it sounds silly to say that and we'll probably need to mix in a few more wins here and there, but that is entirely possible yes.

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