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2019-2020 KenPom Rankings Thread


49r

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So here we are, October 1st and it's time once again to start the annual KenPom Rankings Thread.  By now I'd imagine most of you know how this works.  We'll start off the year with the final rankings of last season for each team in the Big Ten and each non-conference team on our schedule.  Also included will be the 2018 preseason rankings (in parenthesis) as well as 2019 NCAA Tournament teams color coded in red and 2019 NIT Tournament teams color coded in blue.

 

Pomeroy's preseason rankings won't be out for a few more weeks, but just for reference, Bart Torvik does and he has us entering the 19-20 season at #95.  13th in the Big Ten.  I'd expect Pomeroy's number for us look pretty similar.  Bad thing too is our non-con schedule won't be doing us any favors so even if we win 9 of our 11 non con games we probably won't move up too much.

 

Finally, if you notice any errors please let me know.  I think I got everything updated right here but I've been pretty distracted at work.  Also, just as I say every year, don't forget to click here to see all the previous years' KenPom threads (I highly recommend going back through them, they're always fun to read).  Here we go!

 

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 4-08-19

=========================
 

B1G (0-0):

(13) -> 3. Michigan State Final Four

(24) -> 6. Michigan S16
(18) -> 9. Purdue E8

(20) -> 16. Wisconsin R68

(30) -> 24. Maryland R32

(35) -> 37. Iowa R32

(32) -> 43. Penn State
(41) -> 44. Ohio State R32
(60) -> 46. Minnesota R32
(38) -> 47. Nebraska 2nd RD
(28) -> 52. Indiana 3rd RD
(58) -> 74. Northwestern
(149) -> 78. Rutgers

(85) -> 84. Illinois

 
Non-Conference (0-0):
322. UC Riverside
273. Southern Utah
92. South Dakota State 1st RD
335. Southern
 
---Cayman Islands Classic---
207. Washington State
156. 113. George Mason / Old Dominion R68
180. 53. / 131. 99. Colorado State / New Mexico State R68 / Loyola 1st RD / South Florida
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
115. @Georgia Tech
 
55. @Creighton 3rd RD
271. North Dakota
287. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Edited by 49r
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2020 T-Rank College Basketball Projections

 

RK TEAM CONF REC ADJOE ADJDE BARTHAG PROJ. REC RET MINS RPMS NC SOS
2 Michigan St. B10 0-0 120.9
1
93.1
10
.9529 23-6 15-5 65.6% 64.4% 19 %
7 Purdue B10 0-0 117.2
5
95.3
35
.9149 21-9 13-7 53.1% 48.5% 24 %
8 Maryland B10 0-0 115.5
14
94.1
22
.9136 20-9 12-8 83.3% 80.7% 17 %
14 Illinois B10 0-0 117.0
7
96.3
51
.9033 20-10 12-8 81.6% 85.0% 17 %
15 Ohio St. B10 0-0 113.8
22
94.0
20
.9006 21-10 12-8 68.8% 66.8% 22 %
20 Penn St. B10 0-0 112.6
35
93.6
15
.8926 20-10 12-8 70.4% 67.3% 14 %
26 Wisconsin B10 0-0 110.3
59
92.5
7
.8821 18-12 11-9 69.7% 58.9% 21 %
31 Michigan B10 0-0 110.3
58
93.3
12
.8727 17-12 10-10 54.2% 47.3% 19 %
48 Rutgers B10 0-0 109.9
61
95.5
36
.8339 18-13 9-11 71.4% 71.9% 10 %
53 Iowa B10 0-0 116.4
10
101.5
146
.8281 16-14 9-11 60.8% 56.2% 19 %
56 Indiana B10 0-0 109.3
74
95.6
37
.8231 17-14 9-11 59.0% 53.7% 13 %
82 Minnesota B10 0-0 106.8
98
97.5
71
.7409 12-17 7-13 39.9% 32.1% 19 %
95 Nebraska B10 0-0 106.4
105
99.4
106
.6859 12-17 6-14 4.1% 2.8% 14 %
107 Northwestern B10 0-0 100.0
232
94.8
29
.6475 11-18 5-15 44.8% 41.5% 12 %
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#95 - Nebraska (0-0)

 

Fred Hoiberg  Big Ten Conference (0-0)

Tourney Results  Teamcast  Team History

Similar Resumés  Similar Profiles  Team View

 

 

Top 10 Projected Contributors

 

 

PLAYER YR HT PRPG! MIN% ORTG USAGE PPG RPG APG
Cam Mack Jr 6-2 3.3 80 105 23 14.2 3.8 2.4
Jervay Green Jr 6-3 2.9 75 106 21 12.4 3.8 2.1
Dachon Burke Jr 6-4 2.6 67 102 24 10.8 4.3 1.9
Haanif Cheatham Sr 6-5 2 65 102 20 9.3 3.5 1.6
Matej Kavas Sr 6-8 2.5 63 115 15 7.3 4.1 1
Yvan Ouedraogo Fr 6-8 1.2 52 99 19 5.4 4.1 0.9
Samari Curtis Fr 6-4 0.8 34 99 19 3.7 2.2 1.1
Thorir Thorbjarnarson Jr 6-6 0.6 31 101 16 2.6 2.5 1.3
Akol Arop Fr 6-5 0.5 20 100 18 2.4 1.8 0.6
Kevin Cross Fr 6-8 0.3 13 100 17 1.9 0.4 0
Please report errors/omissions/wackiness

 

Tue 11-05 H   250 (IV)   UC Riverside -13.6, 76-63 90%     .04                                    
Sat 11-09 H   172 (III)   Southern Utah -9.6, 79-69 82%     .09                                    
Fri 11-15 H   322 (IV)   South Dakota St. -19.8, 84-64 96%     .02                                    
Fri 11-22 H   350 (IV)   Southern -24.4, 82-58 98%     .01                                    
Mon 11-25 N   194 (IV)   Washington St. -7.3, 79-72 75%     .12                                    
Wed 12-04 A   63 (II)   Georgia Tech +8.4, 76-67 20%     .62                                    
Sat 12-07 A   34 (I-A)   Creighton +11.2, 80-69 15%     .70                                    
Fri 12-13 A   56 (I) Indiana +8.7, 76-67 20%     .63                                    
Sun 12-15 H   7 (I-A) Purdue +6, 75-69 28%     .52                                    
Sat 12-21 H   221 (IV)   North Dakota -12.4, 80-67 88%     .06                                    
Sat 12-28 H   244 (IV)   Texas A&M Corpus Chris -12.7, 75-62 89%     .05                                    
Fri 1-03 H   48 (II) Rutgers +1.2, 72-71 45%     .34                                    
Tue 1-07 H   53 (II) Iowa +1, 79-78 46%     .33                                    
Sat 1-11 A   107 (III) Northwestern +2.7, 68-65 38%     .40                                    
Tue 1-14 A   15 (I-A) Ohio St. +12.8, 78-65 11%     .77                                    
Sat 1-18 H   56 (II) Indiana +0.7, 72-71 47%     .32                                    
Tue 1-21 A   26 (I-A) Wisconsin +11, 73-62 13%     .73                                    
Sat 1-25 A   48 (I) Rutgers +9.2, 77-67 19%     .65                                    
Tue 1-28 H   31 (II) Michigan +3, 70-67 38%     .41                                    
Sat 2-01 H   20 (I) Penn St. +4.3, 74-70 33%     .46                                    
Sat 2-08 A   53 (I) Iowa +9.8, 83-73 19%     .64                                    
Tue 2-11 A   8 (I-A) Maryland +13.9, 79-65 10%     .80                                    
Sat 2-15 H   26 (II) Wisconsin +3.4, 69-66 36%     .43                                    
Thu 2-20 H   2 (I-A) Michigan St. +10.2, 79-69 17%     .67                                    
Mon 2-24 A   14 (I-A) Illinois +14.1, 85-71 11%     .77                                    
Thu 2-27 H   15 (I) Ohio St. +4.8, 73-68 31%     .48                                    
Sun 3-01 H   107 (III) Northwestern -4.8, 69-65 69%     .16                                    
Thu 3-05 A   31 (I) Michigan +10.6, 74-63 14%     .72                                    
Sun 3-08 A   82 (II) Minnesota +5.7, 74-69 29%     .51                                    
  Projected Record: 12-17 (6-14)
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I take that to mean we are favored in only one league game this year? We're not even favored at home against Rutgers?

 

I say nonsense. Yeah, we don't have size. That's a problem.  But, from what I've seen, we still have a pretty solid back court.  And, in some respects, that backcourt is pretty exceptional.  We're going to put up points.  And, as a result, we're going to have a puncher's chance in almost every game.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Pomeroy released his preseason rankings overnight.  So let's see how things look.

 

As in the OP of the thread there will be some special formatting rules for this post.  I've included the 2019 final rankings (in parenthesis) as well as 2019 NCAA Tournament teams color coded in red and 2019 NIT Tournament teams color coded in blue.  Going forward I will lose the previous rankings for Big Ten teams as well as the round each tournament team finished in.  I think I will lose the color coding as well for the regular season updates unless people think it's useful.  Let me know in comments.

 

Finally, some of my own comments.  The biggest jumps made on the offseason by Big Ten schools include Ohio State (+33) and Illinois (+49).  Biggest drops come from Wisconsin (-29), Minnesota (-35) and Nebraska (-49).  In the non-con side the biggest jumps come from UC Riverside (+36), Washington State (+44), Loyola (+32) and Georgia Tech (+49).  Biggest non-con drops are South Dakota State (-116) and Old Dominion (-32).  I'm a little surprised that Minnesota dropped as far as they did.  I'm guessing the Amir Coffey injury factored into that.

 

Ken right now predicts a final record for Nebraska of 12-17 (5-15) - keep in mind he isn't including the second and third round games Cayman Islands games yet.  Barring injuries I'd expect us to do slightly better, probably right around the .500 mark.

 

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 10-20-19

==========================
 

B1G (0-0):

(3) -> 1. Michigan State Final Four

(9) -> 7. Purdue E8
(44) -> 11. Ohio State R32

(24) -> 16. Maryland R32

(6) -> 21. Michigan S16

(52) -> 34. Indiana 3rd RD

(84) -> 35. Illinois

(37) -> 41. Iowa R32

(43) -> 43. Penn State

(16) -> 45. Wisconsin R68

(78) -> 63. Rutgers

(46) -> 81. Minnesota R32
(74) -> 87. Northwestern
(47) -> 96. Nebraska 2nd RD
 
Non-Conference (0-0):
286. UC Riverside
233. Southern Utah
208. South Dakota State 1st RD
343. Southern
 
---Cayman Islands Classic---
163. Washington State
155. 145. George Mason / Old Dominion R68
159. 64. / 99. 76. Colorado State / New Mexico State R68 / Loyola 1st RD / South Florida
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
66. @Georgia Tech
 
36. @Creighton 3rd RD
264. North Dakota
284. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
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2020 Schedule

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date Rk Opponent Result     Location Record Conf  
Tue Nov 5   286 UC Riverside W, 79-64 71 92% Home      
Sat Nov 9   233 Southern Utah W, 83-70 76 87% Home      
Fri Nov 15   208 South Dakota St. W, 83-71 75 85% Home      
Fri Nov 22   343 Southern W, 84-61 73 98% Home      
Mon Nov 25   163 Washington St. W, 77-72 73 68% Neutral      
Wed Dec 4   66 Georgia Tech L, 77-70 74 25% Away      
Sat Dec 7   36 Creighton L, 83-72 75 16% Away      
Fri Dec 13   34 Indiana L, 79-68 73 16% Away   ×  
Sun Dec 15   7 Purdue L, 78-69 73 20% Home   ×  
Sat Dec 21   264 North Dakota W, 82-68 75 91% Home      
Sun Dec 29   284 Texas A&M Corpus Chris W, 79-63 73 92% Home      
Fri Jan 3   63 Rutgers L, 74-73 74 47% Home   ×  
Tue Jan 7   41 Iowa L, 81-77 75 38% Home   ×  
Sat Jan 11   87 Northwestern L, 73-69 72 34% Away   ×  
Tue Jan 14   11 Ohio St. L, 79-65 73 10% Away   ×  
Sat Jan 18   34 Indiana L, 76-72 73 36% Home   ×  
Tue Jan 21   45 Wisconsin L, 76-66 71 19% Away   ×  
Sat Jan 25   63 Rutgers L, 77-69 74 24% Away   ×  
Tue Jan 28   21 Michigan L, 75-70 73 32% Home   ×  
Sat Feb 1   43 Penn St. L, 76-73 74 40% Home   ×  
Sat Feb 8   41 Iowa L, 84-74 75 17% Away   ×  
Tue Feb 11   16 Maryland L, 81-68 73 12% Away   ×  
Sat Feb 15   45 Wisconsin L, 72-70 71 41% Home   ×  
Thu Feb 20   1 Michigan St. L, 82-68 73 11% Home   ×  
Mon Feb 24   35 Illinois L, 83-72 75 16% Away   ×  
Thu Feb 27   11 Ohio St. L, 76-69 73 27% Home   ×  
Sun Mar 1   87 Northwestern W, 72-70 72 59% Home   ×  
Thu Mar 5   21 Michigan L, 79-67 73 14% Away   ×  
Sun Mar 8   81 Minnesota L, 77-72 74 32% Away   ×  
Projected record: 12-17 5-15  
Chance of unbeaten record: 0.00% 0.00%  
Chance of winless record: 0.00% 0.1%

 

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This time last year I had every reason to think we were going to win the B1G. It’s fun to crunch the numbers & play the “what if” game, but NONE of us, the so-called experts or your average Joe-Bag-of- Donuts know how this will play out. I still think we’ll be better than expected & finish somewhere in the 6-10 range...

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37 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

Am I interpreting this correctly? The "tracker" thinks we will go 1-19 in the conference? Really?

Hoiberg’s first Iowa State team got last in the Big 12, which was probably not as strong of a conference top to bottom as the Big Ten is now. That team had eventual conference POY Melvin Ejim, senior point guard Diante Garrett, who played a couple years in the NBA, and a couple other upperclassmen who were contributors/starters in the prior few seasons. 

 

I think we’ll win more than 1 conference game, but seeing how nearly our entire roster was put together in about 6 weeks this offseason (and only 3 of our players have ever played in a power 5 conference basketball game), I’d expect the all the preseason analytics to say Northwestern is the only team we can beat.

Edited by millerhusker
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I guess this is where we say "DAMN YOU KEN POMEROY!! YOU KNOW NOTHING!!"

 

 

 

 

 

(but if you look closely...at the bottom of the schedule, just like the Torvik predictions earlier, Pomeroy says right now it looks like we'll go 5-15 in league play)

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2 hours ago, jimmykc said:

Am I interpreting this correctly? The "tracker" thinks we will go 1-19 in the conference? Really?

 

It projects us as 5-15, not 1-19.  But we are actually favored only in one game.  The probability to win in each game predicts 4 upsets somewhere along the line.

 

To clarify how it works:  if by some chance you are given a 49% chance to win every single conference game, then if you went game by game it would tell you 0-20, but you would be expected to go 9-11 or 10-10.  If you are given a 51% chance in every single game, then game by game results would predict 20-0, but you'd be expected to go 10-10 or 11-9.

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20 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

It projects us as 5-15, not 1-19.  But we are actually favored only in one game.  The probability to win in each game predicts 4 upsets somewhere along the line.

 

To clarify how it works:  if by some chance you are given a 49% chance to win every single conference game, then if you went game by game it would tell you 0-20, but you would be expected to go 9-11 or 10-10.  If you are given a 51% chance in every single game, then game by game results would predict 20-0, but you'd be expected to go 10-10 or 11-9.

 

That's why you play the games. Did anyone really think Illini football would defeat Wisc. besides Lovie Smith?!

 

 

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8 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

Check out the projected Tempo of the team and contrast it with the last 20+ years of Nebraska Basketball.

Computers are projecting baseline to baseline!

 

 

Also projecting the fastest tempo in Hoiberg's career:

 

Coaching Résumé for Fred Hoiberg 

    Offense Defense  
  Team Conf W-L AdjT AdjO AdjD eFG% TO% OR% FTR 2P% 3P% FT% 3PA% A% APL eFG% TO% OR% FTR 2P% 3P% Blk% 3PA% A% APL 2FP%
2020 96 Nebraska B10 0-0
0-0
74.9
20
103.6
115
97.1
92
0.0
1
100.0
1
0.0
1
0.0
1
0.0
1
0.0
1
0.0
1
0.0
1
0.0
1
0.0
1
200.0
1
0.0
1
100.0
1
200.0
1
100.0
1
100.0
1
0.0
1
100.0
1
100.0
1
0.0
1
0.0
1
2015 16 Iowa St. 3 R1 B12 25-9
12-6
69.6
10
119.0
12
97.5
59
54.3
22
15.8
18
28.3
272
36.5
178
54.3
11
36.2
84
69.6
159
36.8
104
58.1
66
14.6
2
47.6
104
18.5
210
29.6
105
24.0
3
45.2
79
34.7
193
9.7
161
34.4
177
55.7
250
19.6
329
15.4
197
2014 20 Iowa St. 3 S16 B12 28-8
11-7
70.2
12
118.9
9
97.8
55
54.2
19
14.5
8
28.8
262
36.4
277
54.4
9
35.8
100
69.3
199
37.5
65
62.4
10
15.2
8
47.7
95
15.9
310
28.5
44
30.7
17
46.0
79
34.1
153
7.0
283
33.5
196
49.9
115
18.4
263
17.6
177
2013 30 Iowa St. 10 R2 B12 23-12
11-7
68.3
30
117.5
8
99.8
123
53.8
18
18.5
90
34.2
88
33.0
254
51.9
28
37.4
34
73.1
57
43.8
8
58.2
57
15.8
12
48.0
149
18.6
249
28.5
55
32.7
91
48.8
220
31.1
45
7.0
274
33.3
186
53.8
175
18.2
178
10.3
267
2012 26 Iowa St. 8 R2 B12 23-11
12-6
65.8
128
113.9
24
97.2
66
52.6
43
18.2
59
32.2
154
38.7
106
50.3
75
37.3
54
68.8
193
41.6
18
57.1
80
16.9
62
48.6
159
17.3
310
26.0
18
26.5
10
49.9
248
30.6
25
7.1
254
31.9
129
51.9
126
18.6
259
5.2
321
2011 81 Iowa St. B12 16-16
3-13
69.0
34
108.1
87
99.4
89
50.6
99
17.4
37
28.4
243
26.4
344
47.8
175
36.8
61
72.1
87
37.5
63
55.2
129
15.9
20
47.6
104
20.4
151
31.5
217
29.2
27
46.3
106
33.6
123
9.0
168
33.0
188
53.7
164
17.8
167
30.2
87
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