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Meltor1

Our shot at getting a bid to the Big Dance

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I know the chance of us getting selected for a spot on the big dance is small. However, I'm looking at the resumes of the bubble teams most often mentioned and I'm comparing them against ours, and I really think we still have a chance to get in. We're on life support, but I don't think we're dead yet. Remember 2016 Tulsa? When VCU got in unexpectedly when they made their big run? I can see the narrative playing out like this: Before Copeland's injury, we were projected to be a 4 seed by some bracketologists. Once the injury hit, we fell into our swoon. However, by the end of the year, we proved to the committee that we found our new identity and have recovered. I think we showed the committee enough that the hard metrics that really support us against those on the bubble can also be buoyed by such a narrative so they don't feel embarrassed when getting cross examined by the talking heads about the decision. Furthermore, people have said they don't consider bad losses or the lack thereof, but when they put in Tulsa in 2016 to the shock of everyone, they cited their lack of bad losses when compared to their bubble peers. The bubble is weak enough, and along with our strong NET ranking, injury narrative, and 0 bad losses, I think we still have a chance. When you compare our resume last year to this year, we definitely have a better resume this year, and yet we were all glued to our t.v.'s last year for Selection Sunday. I put the chance of selection at...eh...15% instead of zero. 

Edited by Meltor1

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1 minute ago, Meltor1 said:

Once the injury hit, we fell into our swoon

 

here's the problem. this is revision. it might comfort fans struggling to remember we were 2-5 in Cops last 7 games and already laying enormous eggs, but it's not going to be a myth embraced by sober people on selection committees. Assuming, of course, the sobriety part. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, tcp said:

 

here's the problem. this is revision. it might comfort fans struggling to remember we were 2-5 in Cops last 7 games and already laying enormous eggs, but it's not going to be a myth embraced by sober people on selection committees. Assuming, of course, the sobriety part. 

 

 

I respectfully disagree. The two games we played before the OSU game that Copeland was injured was vs. Michigan State, a game we almost won, and Rutgers on the road, who went on to win a couple more games in a row after beating us. We were 6-4 in his last 10 before OSU, with 3 of those losses coming against Maryland and Iowa on the road, and that close MSU game at home. 

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1 minute ago, Meltor1 said:

I respectfully disagree. The two games we played before the OSU game that Copeland was injured was vs. Michigan State, a game we almost won, and Rutgers on the road, who went on to win a couple more games in a row after beating us. We were 6-4 in his last 10 before OSU, with 3 of those losses coming against Maryland and Iowa on the road, and that close MSU game at home. 

 

Okay, I understand this point (every time I argue this I always have to go back and double check the schedule. Which I'm sure you did, too). We weren't getting blown out, true, but we were losing a lot. And we weren't playing as well doing it as we were when we were winning. Our shot percentages were dipping. The MSU game was a turning point, but like the Iowa game, the team we lost to was comfortably in front the whole game and the core was closer than the game was. True, we'd get quite a bit worse after that for 4 games, but the result is still losing. 

 

Here's my thing on this: everyone knows this year's bubble is a little flaky and pretty weak. There's a lot of ammo for and against a lot of teams (as there often is on a bubble). But the one thing the committee held against us last year is a problem we still have this season: not enough high end wins. Our Q1 record was poor compared to many of the other bubble teams, some of them also struggling with injuries. Our Michigan win last year was better than almost any win we had this year except probably Maryland this week.  But we were 2-5 with Cope (and losing with Cope and playing like crap in the OSU game when he went down). We were 2-7 in the next nine (although we finished tolerably at 5-5 for our last ten). 

 

People are people. They see what they want to see, I suppose. But for a team that totally controlled our fate most of the year, we flat out failed to respond to the bell for weeks, often not even bothering to show up. A strong, passionate finish doesn't erase that history. 

 

 

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You can compare resumes all you want. But there have been a number of conference champion bid stealers that are shrinking the pot. St. Mary's, Oregon, St. Bonaventure/SLU, and potentially Belmont, Lipscomb, and Furman may lock up some of those spots.

 

So teams like Arizona State, who thought they would be in, are now sweating it out. 32 Auto bids and 6+ bid stealers shrinks the pot to the next 30 best teams.

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I agree that there are some obvious warts, i.e. the fact that it appeared we simply didn't show up for a few games post-Copeland. But every team on the bubble has similar warts. I'm curious though if the fact that our NET ranking was so strong pre-injury that we may get extra consideration because of that. We were 15-20 around that time. And I really think the no bad losses will be a differentiator that will help us compared to our bubble peers. 

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Let’s just say that we did enough this past week to get me to watch the Selection Sunday show today.  HOWEVER, I do not expect our name to  be seen until this evening.

 

My one biggest Nebrasketball thing right now would be this... our name is shown today.  In that first 4 out that they show at the end.  And we’ll loathe that loss to Wisconsin more than we ever did before.

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I will say that we’re still in 1 bracket on BM and we were in a ton of first four, next four, and others considered on Bracket Matrix.  I went through them all yesterday.  There’s a chance.  Very small, very slim.  We would have to be that “one team” no one thinks.  

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40 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

I will say that we’re still in 1 bracket on BM and we were in a ton of first four, next four, and others considered on Bracket Matrix.  I went through them all yesterday.  There’s a chance.  Very small, very slim.  We would have to be that “one team” no one thinks.  

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance...YEAH! I hear ya!”

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8 hours ago, tcp said:

 

here's the problem. this is revision. it might comfort fans struggling to remember we were 2-5 in Cops last 7 games and already laying enormous eggs, but it's not going to be a myth embraced by sober people on selection committees. Assuming, of course, the sobriety part.

 

Cope's last 10 full games and Ohio State, in which we were tied at the time he was injured early 2nd half but lost by 10.

 

Sat, Dec 8 W94-75  8-2 (1-1) Palmer Jr. 30 Roby 8 Watson Jr. 5
Sun, Dec 16 W79-56  9-2 (1-1) Palmer Jr. 29 Roby 7 Palmer Jr. 5
Sat, Dec 22 W86-62  10-2 (1-1) Palmer Jr. 23 Roby 8 Watson Jr. 10
Sat, Dec 29 W79-38  11-2 (1-1) Palmer Jr. 16 Borchardt 9 Palmer Jr. 5
Wed, Jan 2 L74-72  11-3 (1-2) Palmer Jr. 26 Palmer Jr. 7 Palmer Jr. 4
Sun, Jan 6
@Iowa25 Iowa
L93-84  11-4 (1-3) Copeland Jr. 24 Roby 9 Watson Jr. 5
Thu, Jan 10 W70-64  12-4 (2-3) Roby 22 Roby 11 Palmer Jr. 4
Mon, Jan 14
@Indiana25 Indiana
W66-51  13-4 (3-3) Watson Jr. 15 Palmer Jr. 9 Palmer Jr. 7
Thu, Jan 17 L70-64  13-5 (3-4) Palmer Jr. 24 Palmer Jr. 8 Palmer Jr. 3
Mon, Jan 21 L76-69  13-6 (3-5) Palmer Jr. 22 Copeland Jr. 8 Palmer Jr. 4
Sat, Jan 26 L70-60  13-7 (3-6) Palmer Jr. 19 Roby 9 Palmer Jr. 4

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The 5 losses in Cope's last 7 games (if you include just over half a game against Ohio State, in which we were tied at the time he went down and lost by 10): loss by 2 @Maryland; loss by 9 @ #25 Iowa; loss by 6 against #6 MSU; loss by 7 @ Rutgers; loss by 10 against Ohio State, a game in which we were tied when Cope went down.

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I am firmly in the camp that losing Cope sunk the season. He was rock solid for the team, extremely consistent. He was playing much better than in 2017-18.

 

His mid-range game and ability to get that shot off over almost anyone just gave us another option late in the shot clock. Without him, defensive big men were able to sag in the lane more, cutting driving lanes, and leaving us without a lot of late shot clock choices.

 

That's not a slight against Borchardt. He played far, far better than I think we could've hoped in Cope's spot. And he did some things better than Cope. Defending a guy like Bruno worked much better with Borchardt/Roby than with Cope/Roby. Always love watching Tanner's ability to subtly screen the helper down low when Palmer drives, keeping that shot-blocker out of the picture.

 

It's true we weren't playing great in the few games before Cope's injury. But with him in Nov/Dec, we were a #4/#5 seed type of team. Every team goes thru slumps and we were in a bit of one in mid-Jan. Then it got extended to a ridiculous length once he was injured.

 

Had Cope stayed healthy, I think we win 3-4 more games, and we're in the tournament. Sucks ass for everyone.

 

Edited by throwback

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This is all good debate and all, and I've heard many times that the Selection Committee considers injuries and other major turning points in a season. But if Nebraska doesn't have a strong advocate in that committee room and/or the vast majority of those committee members haven't watched much Nebraska basketball this season, then this debate all falls on deaf ears.

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Oh, I agree, we're not anywhere in the picture today. Cope's injury may have sunk the season, but that gives us zero benefit today. That's very clear. Our record without Cope is nowhere near good enough to even make the injury a consideration.

 

We're not on the right side or wrong side of anyone's bubble. Indiana seems to be far closer to the bubble than us, and they're not making it either.

 

If we were playing today, we'd be on the bubble, potentially even on the right side. But zero chance after the loss Friday.

 

Edited by throwback

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14 minutes ago, throwback said:

I am firmly in the camp that losing Cope sunk the season. He was rock solid for the team, extremely consistent. He was playing much better than in 2017-18.

 

His mid-range game and ability to get that shot off over almost anyone just gave us another option late in the shot clock. Without him, defensive big men were able to sag in the lane more, cutting driving lanes, and leaving us without a lot of late shot clock choices.

 

That's not a slight against Borchardt. He played far, far better than I think we could've hoped in Cope's spot. And he did some things better than Cope. Defending a guy like Bruno worked much better with Borchardt/Roby than with Cope/Roby. Always love watching Tanner's ability to subtly screen the helper down low when Palmer drives, keeping that shot-blocker out of the picture.

 

It's true we weren't playing great in the few games before Cope's injury. But with him in Nov/Dec, we were a #4/#5 seed type of team. Every team goes thru slumps and we were in a bit of one in mid-Jan. Then it got extended to a ridiculous length once he was injured.

 

Had Cope stayed healthy, I think we win 3-4 more games, and we're in the tournament. Sucks ass for everyone.

 

 

No doubt, @throwback. But, now NU has a 2nd chance, albeit in the National Invitational Tournament. Let's go, Big Red ! GBR !!!

 

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29 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

This is all good debate and all, and I've heard many times that the Selection Committee considers injuries and other major turning points in a season. But if Nebraska doesn't have a strong advocate in that committee room and/or the vast majority of those committee members haven't watched much Nebraska basketball this season, then this debate all falls on deaf ears.

I believe the injury factor only applies if the player returns. So the committee will excuse Duke's losses while Zion was out. But I don't think we get "bonus points" because we'd be better with Cope. 

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2 hours ago, throwback said:

I am firmly in the camp that losing Cope sunk the season. He was rock solid for the team, extremely consistent. He was playing much better than in 2017-18.

 

His mid-range game and ability to get that shot off over almost anyone just gave us another option late in the shot clock. Without him, defensive big men were able to sag in the lane more, cutting driving lanes, and leaving us without a lot of late shot clock choices.

 

That's not a slight against Borchardt. He played far, far better than I think we could've hoped in Cope's spot. And he did some things better than Cope. Defending a guy like Bruno worked much better with Borchardt/Roby than with Cope/Roby. Always love watching Tanner's ability to subtly screen the helper down low when Palmer drives, keeping that shot-blocker out of the picture.

 

It's true we weren't playing great in the few games before Cope's injury. But with him in Nov/Dec, we were a #4/#5 seed type of team. Every team goes thru slumps and we were in a bit of one in mid-Jan. Then it got extended to a ridiculous length once he was injured.

 

Had Cope stayed healthy, I think we win 3-4 more games, and we're in the tournament. Sucks ass for everyone.

 

I am also in this camp. It took the guys a while to adjust to not having him. They eventually figured out how to win again, but that was a process that was going to take some time.

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9 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

At least no one has heard that we are lining up the band and have a plane ready to take us to Dayton.  That doomed us last year.  Maybe this year we’ve got a legit shot!?

 

Lol, I was just thinking about that! I hear Dayton is lovely this time of year! 

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