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royalfan

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Monday 2-18

 

Illinois at Wisconsin -9    7pm   FS1   We want Illinois. Played them twice and Wisconsin not quite in with big slump. 

Southern -1@ Mississippi Valley St.  7:30 We want Miss. Valley.  Lord help me!  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2-OjScVdKvzsv-u5HCjapw

Kansas St -6 1/2 @ West Virginia  8  ESPN  We want West Virginia on off chance K St loses out(20th in bracket matrix)

TCU-3 @ Ok. St 8  ESPNU  We want Ok St as we played them and TCU is 32 in bracket matrix now

 

 

 

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Question:

Do we think it's better for Illinois to win (and keep their current lead over us in the Big Ten standings) or Wisconsin, who is already pretty much locked in ahead of us unless they absolutely tank the whole rest of the season? I know the committee CAN leapfrog teams in the conference standings (i.e. take the 5th place team but not the 4th...) but personally I think I'd feel a little better seeing Illinois dropping below us in conference W-L record. Wisconsin may be slumping but they're ranked nationally; Illinois still has a losing record overall and I'd rather put them in our rearview mirror in the standings. But maybe I'm wrong?

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2 minutes ago, ladyhusker said:

Question:

Do we think it's better for Illinois to win (and keep their current lead over us in the Big Ten standings) or Wisconsin, who is already pretty much locked in ahead of us unless they absolutely tank the whole rest of the season? I know the committee CAN leapfrog teams in the conference standings (i.e. take the 5th place team but not the 4th...) but personally I think I'd feel a little better seeing Illinois dropping below us in conference W-L record. Wisconsin may be slumping but they're ranked nationally; Illinois still has a losing record overall and I'd rather put them in our rearview mirror in the standings. But maybe I'm wrong?

 

I think what matters the most here is that we played Illinois twice and Wisconsin once, so our computer stuff should be impacted more favorably if Illinois won.  

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9 minutes ago, ladyhusker said:

Question:

Do we think it's better for Illinois to win (and keep their current lead over us in the Big Ten standings) or Wisconsin, who is already pretty much locked in ahead of us unless they absolutely tank the whole rest of the season? I know the committee CAN leapfrog teams in the conference standings (i.e. take the 5th place team but not the 4th...) but personally I think I'd feel a little better seeing Illinois dropping below us in conference W-L record. Wisconsin may be slumping but they're ranked nationally; Illinois still has a losing record overall and I'd rather put them in our rearview mirror in the standings. But maybe I'm wrong?

 

My vote is for whatever scenario keeps us out of the B1G tourney bunny bracket as winning that game just to get a win probably does nothing for us. We get a 2nd round game against the 7th or 8th team in the conference which should be a combination of impactful and winnable 

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11 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

My vote is for whatever scenario keeps us out of the B1G tourney bunny bracket as winning that game just to get a win probably does nothing for us. We get a 2nd round game against the 7th or 8th team in the conference which should be a combination of impactful and winnable 

Playing around on the bracket generator...if we win two the rest of the way, we stay out of the bunny bracket (and there are scenarios that aren't too insane to keep us out of that bracket even with one more win). If we win 2 or 3 (or even 4), we're most likely looking at a rematch with either Illinois or Ohio State, with either Michigan or Michigan State on deck. So I guess I'm not counting on too many wins in the BTT. I know they say they don't pay attention to conference standings, but these guys don't live in a bubble either...I guess I'd just feel more comfortable with them dropping back to nothingness, although maybe it solidifies the "parity in the amazing Big Ten" argument this year too.

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6 minutes ago, ladyhusker said:

Playing around on the bracket generator

 

Good call. I'll post it here FWIW:

 

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

 

My thoughts are that it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to get that sad-lonely-bottom-bracket game in the BTT as long as we win it. If we can keep our NET below 40/45, then any extra win can't hurt. But I can see it both ways.

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1 minute ago, ladyhusker said:

Playing around on the bracket generator...if we win two the rest of the way, we stay out of the bunny bracket (and there are scenarios that aren't too insane to keep us out of that bracket even with one more win). If we win 2 or 3 (or even 4), we're most likely looking at a rematch with either Illinois or Ohio State, with either Michigan or Michigan State on deck. So I guess I'm not counting on too many wins in the BTT. I know they say they don't pay attention to conference standings, but these guys don't live in a bubble either...I guess I'd just feel more comfortable with them dropping back to nothingness, although maybe it solidifies the "parity in the amazing Big Ten" argument this year too.

 

If we're on the edge a game against Ohio St is a great opportunity against a NCAA team that isn't firing on all cylinders; A game against Illinois in Chicago is a knife fight where winning does nothing  and then you get to play one of the Michigans.  May the odds be in our favor.

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4 minutes ago, ladyhusker said:

Playing around on the bracket generator...if we win two the rest of the way, we stay out of the bunny bracket (and there are scenarios that aren't too insane to keep us out of that bracket even with one more win). If we win 2 or 3 (or even 4), we're most likely looking at a rematch with either Illinois or Ohio State, with either Michigan or Michigan State on deck. So I guess I'm not counting on too many wins in the BTT. I know they say they don't pay attention to conference standings, but these guys don't live in a bubble either...I guess I'd just feel more comfortable with them dropping back to nothingness, although maybe it solidifies the "parity in the amazing Big Ten" argument this year too.

 

I think that the fact that the Big 10 basically cannibalized itself this year is why you might see us get the nod over Illinois if we beat them.  Shoot, they are just now 5 rankings short of that becoming another Q2 win for us.  I mean if the committee truly recognizes the entire "body of work" and after last year, I am sure that they probably do, then we might be on the right side looking out right now with 5 to play.  

 

Either way you put it though, we are going to have to do one thing.  Find a way to win 3 more games minimum and most  likely four games.  So if we can do that and the Illini remain ahead of us, we should be good to go. 

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1 hour ago, hhcmatt said:

 

If we're on the edge a game against Ohio St is a great opportunity against a NCAA team that isn't firing on all cylinders; A game against Illinois in Chicago is a knife fight where winning does nothing  and then you get to play one of the Michigans.  May the odds be in our favor.

This is true. So I started playing with Illinois scenarios and, sadly, we need them to pull out some decent wins the rest of the way to wind up as the 7 seed. Short of winning out, we're in 8-9-10 seed land, and if we want to avoid an 8-9 matchup with them (with Michigan on deck, yikes) I guess they need to win a bunch in a hurry. Ugh, this is miserable.

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